Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

ancapailldorcha

Eric Cartman wrote: »

so do we think theyll actually manage it, no parlimentary scuppering etc..

The UK will be out by Saturday. It's on to the negotiations now.

Christy42

Christy42 wrote: »

But they aren't actually doing anything week. It has in effect been out off till the end of the year.

They are sticking to the rules till the end of the year. They lose a voice in Europe but many of their MEPs were not interested in attending an putting forward the UK voice anyway so little difference there.

Only with regards to relations with the EU, for other "third countries" they're free to negotiate and implement trade deals.

Christy42

Deleted User wrote: »

Only with regards to relations with the EU, for other "third countries" they're free to negotiate and implement trade deals.

Does that mean they are losing every non EU deal they have via the EU?

Plus if they are sticking with EU refs for the moment it cuts out most major countries who will demand their own standards from the UK.

Capt'n Midnight

Christy42 wrote: »

Does that mean they are losing every non EU deal they have via the EU?

Plus if they are sticking with EU refs for the moment it cuts out most major countries who will demand their own standards from the UK.

Only the ones they haven't rolled over.

And a lot of the ones they've rolled over only apply during the transition phase.

So they won't see the full impact for a while.

Enzokk

Imagine being a newly elected Tory MP from a previous Labour constituency and having the defend a policy that has your council lose millions in funding but Johnson's receives £8.8m extra. This review was done under Theresa May so I am sure it just looks like a coincidence that areas with Labour MP's before received major cuts and rural Tory voting areas saw gains.

Former 'red wall' areas could lose millions in council funding review

A reallocation of council funding could redirect hundreds of millions of pounds from so-called left-behind communities in the north of England to the leafy southern shires, analysis has found, leaving many newly Conservative voting “red wall” areas facing fresh cuts to local services.

Under a review of the local authority funding formula, £320m a year could be shifted out of councils in England’s most deprived areas while Tory-controlled shire councils mainly in the south-east gain £300m.

...

The LGA’s Labour group said Hampshire would be the biggest winner, gaining £35m a year, followed by Surrey county council (£25m), which is home to 11 Conservative MPs including the cabinet members Dominic Raab and Michael Gove. Big losers include Birmingham, which would lose more than £48m.

The Tory-run Northamptonshire county council, which declared effective bankruptcy in 2018 after years of financial mismanagement and is still in special measures, is set to get a £7.5m boost to its budget. At the time, ministers have refused to bail it out, saying this would be a reward for failure.

It is going to be fascinating to see what happens in the UK in the next few years. Seeing that it is the nasty party in charge I doubt they care much at all.

Edit:

For the Brexit portion of my post, we seem to have a house now instead of steps regarding the negotiations,

https://twitter.com/JenniferMerode/status/1221703152988229633?s=20

https://twitter.com/JenniferMerode/status/1221704123554435072?s=20

https://twitter.com/JenniferMerode/status/1221705497075757056?s=20

https://twitter.com/JenniferMerode/status/1221706006713028608?s=20

https://twitter.com/JenniferMerode/status/1221707044140605440?s=20

https://twitter.com/JenniferMerode/status/1221708184362082304?s=20

CrabRevolution

Enzokk wrote: »

Imagine being a newly elected Tory MP from a previous Labour constituency and having the defend a policy that has your council lose millions in funding but Johnson's receives £8.8m extra. This review was done under Theresa May so I am sure it just looks like a coincidence that areas with Labour MP's before received major cuts and rural Tory voting areas saw gains.

Former 'red wall' areas could lose millions in council funding review

It is going to be fascinating to see what happens in the UK in the next few years. Seeing that it is the nasty party in charge I doubt they care much at all.

At this stage I think it's a case of you reap what you sow. These people have decided that Brexit is the solution to their problems. Let them live with the consequences.

Kermit.de.frog

Think it's safe to say Varadkar really got under the skin of the UK Brexit press this morning with his comments to the BBC.

Infini

CrabRevolution wrote: »

At this stage I think it's a case of you reap what you sow. These people have decided that Brexit is the solution to their problems. Let them live with the consequences.

In all honesty as much as I have sympathy for some of those who never wanted this any of them who voted for the Tories deserves everything coming at them, it was well documented how corrupt, broken and utterly contemptable that party has been over the last number of years, Brexit is their own partys pet project too so it should be no suprise theyre at this sort of behaviour.

If anything I expect this to end poorly for Boris and co, they obviously intend to profit at their own countries expense in all of this and I honestly expect this to end in riots and chaos by the end of it all, the EU is well prepared for a no deal scenario if it comes to it at the end of the year, it wont be the ideal choice but if the Brits decide to go that way they'll find out how truly powerless they are without the suport of others.

Mr.Wemmick

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Think it's safe to say Varadkar really got under the skin of the UK Brexit press this morning with his comments to the BBC.

The tory press are warming up to blaming Ireland and the EU for when things go belly-up for them.

It's an undeliverable pile of sh!te and it's going to be one hell of a mess. And if the EU don't help them by doing all the work, it'll be all their fault.. s'not fair, sniff!

Expect tears and tantrums from Johnson.

Zubeneschamali

Mr.Wemmick wrote: »

And if the EU don't help them by doing all the work

I think this is the most likely outcome. Johnson will huff and puff, the negotiators will ask the EU for the impossible and then at the last minute Johnson will take whatever deal the EU offers because he's got nothing and needs to "win".

Just like the WA talks, in fact.

Enzokk

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I think this is the most likely outcome. Johnson will huff and puff, the negotiators will ask the EU for the impossible and then at the last minute Johnson will take whatever deal the EU offers because he's got nothing and needs to "win".

Just like the WA talks, in fact.

I think it is likely he will go for BRINO but at the same time I can easily see him pivoting to a USA deal and doing what he said he would, no alignment or rule taking from the EU. History shows he is able to sell a loss as a win so he can easily sell a BRINO deal as something that it isn't. The question is whether the likes of Francois and Baker will be happy with it and what fuss they will or can kick up.

Nody

Enzokk wrote: »

Imagine being a newly elected Tory MP from a previous Labour constituency and having the defend a policy that has your council lose millions in funding but Johnson's receives £8.8m extra. This review was done under Theresa May so I am sure it just looks like a coincidence that areas with Labour MP's before received major cuts and rural Tory voting areas saw gains.

Former 'red wall' areas could lose millions in council funding review



It is going to be fascinating to see what happens in the UK in the next few years. Seeing that it is the nasty party in charge I doubt they care much at all.

Well seeing how they changed treasury rules to get more projects going Boris could simply declare he's not implementing it "because it's not fair" and the local Tories can sell it as proof of their clout with Boris and why they should be re-elected again. Tories love money but to get money they need to stay in power; hence I don't see that as unrealistic choice to make (esp. as it came from May so can blame her for it as it was not a Boris Johnson policy; he's a man of the people after all).

RobMc59

Enzokk wrote: »

I think it is likely he will go for BRINO but at the same time I can easily see him pivoting to a USA deal and doing what he said he would, no alignment or rule taking from the EU. History shows he is able to sell a loss as a win so he can easily sell a BRINO deal as something that it isn't. The question is whether the likes of Francois and Baker will be happy with it and what fuss they will or can kick up.

The majority of people in the UK would be happy with a deal which retains EU standards and don't see it as 'towing the line'-its only the 'get rich quick toffs' who are deluded.

First Up

Enzokk wrote:

I think it is likely he will go for BRINO but at the same time I can easily see him pivoting to a USA deal and doing what he said he would, no alignment or rule taking from the EU. History shows he is able to sell a loss as a win so he can easily sell a BRINO deal as something that it isn't. The question is whether the likes of Francois and Baker will be happy with it and what fuss they will or can kick up.

Do you think his US "deal"will help UK companies replace much of the 46% of exports that go to the EU with new American customers?

Seth Brundle

RobMc59 wrote: »

The majority of people in the UK would be happy with a deal which retains EU standards and don't see it as 'towing the line'-its only the 'get rich quick toffs' who are deluded.

I'd be curious to know what the percentage of people in the UK are aware that the EU has largely been responsible for high quality standards and that there's a high probability of them lowering as a result of Brexit.

An Ciarraioch

Surprising that only 8,000 appear to be employed in the British fishing industry:

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0127/1111145-uk-finance-sector-ready-to-wave-brexit-white-flag/

Nody

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Surprising that only 8,000 appear to be employed in the British fishing industry:

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0127/1111145-uk-finance-sector-ready-to-wave-brexit-white-flag/

And EY alone are moving out similar number of jobs to Europe; and that's a single company (and that's before those fishermen gets a feel how lovely trade outside EU with fresh produce is; I got a feeling those 8000 fishermen are going to drop rapidly due to bankruptcy)...

Consultants EY said this week that around 7,000 financial services jobs will move from Britain to staff new EU hubs.

Strazdas

Seth Brundle wrote: »

I'd be curious to know what the percentage of people in the UK are aware that the EU has largely been responsible for high quality standards and that there's a high probability of them lowering as a result of Brexit.

Given the way they are abandoning even the Single Market with its numerous benefits for private citizens outside of trade (the EU health card, Erasmus, free roaming etc etc), I'd say 99% of Leave voters are clueless on the subject.

Professor Moriarty

Predictably, blaming Ireland has already started. An opinion piece in The Telegraph by Asa Bennet (one of The Telegraph's Brexit yapping dogs) has the headline:

"Leo Varadkar shouldn't trash Boris Johnson - he owes him for getting Brexit done"

And here is the final paragraph:

Mr Varadkar will not be able to congratulate his "winning team" for much if he ends up pushing the Prime Minister to take the UK out to trade on WTO terms with Ireland and the rest of the world.

It was the Irish wot done it.

swampgas

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Predictably, blaming Ireland has already started. An opinion piece in The Telegraph by Asa Bennet (one of The Telegraph's Brexit yapping dogs) has the headline:

"Leo Varadkar shouldn't trash Boris Johnson - he owes him for getting Brexit done"

And here is the final paragraph:

Mr Varadkar will not be able to congratulate his "winning team" for much if he ends up pushing the Prime Minister to take the UK out to trade on WTO terms with Ireland and the rest of the world.

It was the Irish wot done it.

The EU hasn't changed its message, just the directness with which it is being expressed. A 3rd party country on the wane, run by an uncooperative, rude and incompetent mob, is not going to get better treatment, or have their antics more indulged, than any other 3rd party country.

IMO the UK is going to rediscover the meaning of the word realpolitik very soon, and they're not going to enjoy it.

An Ciarraioch

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Predictably, blaming Ireland has already started. An opinion piece in The Telegraph by Asa Bennet (one of The Telegraph's Brexit yapping dogs) has the headline:

"Leo Varadkar shouldn't trash Boris Johnson - he owes him for getting Brexit done"

And here is the final paragraph:

Mr Varadkar will not be able to congratulate his "winning team" for much if he ends up pushing the Prime Minister to take the UK out to trade on WTO terms with Ireland and the rest of the world.

It was the Irish wot done it.

More the converse - if the Taoiseach hadn't gone to Cheshire, Johnson wouldn't have been able to keep to his own timetable.

Laura Kuenssberg also had a curious tweet to promote her article, saying "Varadkar...claims 'colonial' UK never understood Ireland" - unless I'm mistaken, the word never appears in her article ...

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1221682011330531328

Professor Moriarty

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

More the converse - if the Taoiseach hadn't gone to Cheshire, Johnson wouldn't have been able to keep to his own timetable.

Laura Kuenssberg also had a curious tweet to promote her article, saying "Varadkar...claims 'colonial' UK never understood Ireland" - unless I'm mistaken, the word never appears in her article ...

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1221682011330531328

Looking through the linked article, the word doesn't appear. TBF, he probably did say it during the interview but I couldn't be arsed digging it up and listening to it. If he didn't use the word then it's a very disingenuous piece of reportage.

In all of this, it's important to remember that Vradakar is very unlikely to be Taoiseach when the negotiations start in earnest.

listermint

RobMc59 wrote: »

The majority of people in the UK would be happy with a deal which retains EU standards and don't see it as 'towing the line'-its only the 'get rich quick toffs' who are deluded.

No offense to the supposed majority (i dispute your statement on that) But the 'average' man/woman on the street would be happy with whatever spin the usual suspect newspapers put on their anti EU agenda driven by there basically Libertarian owners.

The notion that the average person on the street had any real issues with the EU or toeing the line before 2015 is factually incorrect. Its spin, spin and more spin.

If those papers closed up shop tomorrow morning the relationship would improve almost immediately.

Enzokk

Nody wrote: »

Well seeing how they changed treasury rules to get more projects going Boris could simply declare he's not implementing it "because it's not fair" and the local Tories can sell it as proof of their clout with Boris and why they should be re-elected again. Tories love money but to get money they need to stay in power; hence I don't see that as unrealistic choice to make (esp. as it came from May so can blame her for it as it was not a Boris Johnson policy; he's a man of the people after all).

You are saying they abandon the plans for more funding for their own Tory heartland and stronghold to keep the new seats happy that is stuck with their MP's for the next 5 years? Where those seats most likely has Labour run councils as well so the Councillors will need to make decisions on cuts on services will be blamed and will most likely not be Tory?

I don't have much faith in Johnson the person to make the right decision or the cabinet ministers who stand to benefit from this to decide not to do this. In fact I think it is more likely they will review the review to take even more money from those areas than to reverse them. Tories gonna Tory.

Dave0301

I did see a clip of the Varadkar interview where he references Britain's colonial past. Used in the headline like that is click bating at best, but seeing as it is Kuenssberg, I doubt anyone here is surprised.

Enzokk

listermint wrote: »

No offense to the supposed majority (i dispute your statement on that) But the 'average' man/woman on the street would be happy with whatever spin the usual suspect newspapers put on their anti EU agenda driven by there basically Libertarian owners.

The notion that the average person on the street had any real issues with the EU or toeing the line before 2015 is factually incorrect. Its spin, spin and more spin.

If those papers closed up shop tomorrow morning the relationship would improve almost immediately.

It will all depend on the way the newspapers cover the negotiations. They still hold so much power over the narrative.

https://twitter.com/GreensladeR/status/1221716067409711104?s=20

Migrants are off the agenda for the UK press, but the damage is done

Now, to get a grip on just how influential media coverage has been, note recent fascinating findings from YouGov. In its poll weeks before the referendum, when anti-migrant press coverage was at its zenith, 56% thought “immigration and asylum” were the most important issues facing Britain. Weeks later, soon after the vote, that was down to 46%.

By the following year, with the press already beginning to tail off its migration coverage, the number had fallen to 35%. Much more telling is the most recent set of findings.

Of the 24 polls in 2019, the average number of people who believed immigration was the key issue was 23%, with the latest total standing at just 20%.

In other words, the downplaying of immigration in newspapers has been mirrored by the public’s attitude towards the subject. Lack of coverage equals lack of interest. Where is that “crisis” of 2016 in 2020? It does not exist because it never did exist.

It may be, given their terminal decline, that newspapers are never able to mount such a campaign again.

So what? They have already done their worst by encouraging and exploiting deep divisions in society while splitting us off from Europe. Now that really is a crisis.

So the success of any deal Johnson brings back, whether BRINO or WTO, will come down to the coverage of it and if the opposition to it makes money for the newspapers. That is depressing.

Frank Bullitt

No memes please.

Kermit.de.frog

Varadkar just called the UK a small country on the BBC's main evening news.

They won't like that :pac:

An Ciarraioch

Barnier reiterates in Belfast that the WA requires customs checks between NI and GB - hardly news, one would think, but the Guardian seem surprised:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jan/27/customs-checks-needed-on-irish-sea-trade-after-brexit-eu

Professor Moriarty

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Varadkar just called the UK a small country on the BBC's main evening news.

They won't like that :pac:

I think Varadkar's recent UK rhetoric is an attempt to row back on the damage done by the RIC/DMP issue by appearing less sympathetic to the UK's position post Brexit.