Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

Strazdas

I've seen people on a UK forum question if Johnson even intends to mount any customs checks between GB and NI.

This would create immediate and very serious difficulties between the EU and UK. It might explain why Barnier and von der Leyen have sounded anxious in recent speeches.

Charles Babbage

Strazdas wrote: »

I've seen people on a UK forum question if Johnson even intends to mount any customs checks between GB and NI.

This would create immediate and very serious difficulties between the EU and UK. It might explain why Barnier and von der Leyen have sounded anxious in recent speeches.

However, this would have US congress after him as well. Boris is cavalier with his commitments, but he is not stupid.

Zubeneschamali

RobMc59 wrote: »

any country that leaves,or wishes to leave will sink without trace

No-one has suggested the UK will collapse or sink without trace.


Best guess (as costed by the UK Government themselves) is an economic hit a bit worse than the 2008 crash.

Dyr

Strazdas wrote: »

It will be a disaster. No developed country has ever even attempted what the UK is doing : walking away from all its longstanding trade deals and treaties for purely political and nationalistic reasons and to keep the worst people in their society happy.

You mean the majority of the electorate?

Its a weird narrative to peddle but I suppose it comforts some people

RobMc59

Enzokk wrote: »

Can you find these posts that, as you assert, states the UK will sink and disappear without a trace?

Looking through your posts your view of brexit and possible effects is balanced,if you read some of the replies to my post yesterday you'll see the type of stuff I'm talking about when I say there are posters who say the UK is done for.
As a British person who didn't want brexit but does care about his country isn't it reasonable to want your country to come through this?,Hopefully intact with a mutually agreeable trade/services deal with the EU which keeps the UK closely aligned to the EU but perhaps still able to trade freely with other countries.

Enzokk

Bambi wrote: »

You mean the majority of the electorate?

Its a weird narrative to peddle but I suppose it comforts some people

Do you mean the majority of the electorate wants a hard Brexit where they walk away from a close relationship with the EU and access to the single market?

Dyr

Enzokk wrote: »

Do you mean the majority of the electorate wants a hard Brexit where they walk away from a close relationship with the EU and access to the single market?

I mean the electorate who voted for Brexit and then voted for the Conservative party in a landslide, knowing full well that they were willing to go for a hard Brexit.

Sooner or later people will have to let go of the delusion that Brexit is exclusively supported by people who think that Tommy Robinson should be PM.

quokula

Bambi wrote: »

I mean the electorate who voted for Brexit and then voted for the Conservative party in a landslide, knowing full well that they were willing to go for a hard Brexit.

Sooner or later people will have to let go of the delusion that Brexit is exclusively supported by people who think that Tommy Robinson should be PM.

The majority of the electorate voted against the conservatives and for parties that were either fully against Brexit or in favour of a softer one and a second referendum. Just because FPTP is completely unfit for purpose and produced an unrepresentative parliament doesn’t mean the majority voted for a hard Brexit.

Zubeneschamali

RobMc59 wrote: »

As a British person who didn't want brexit but does care about his country isn't it reasonable to want your country to come through this?

Yes, of course.

I am not British, but I also didn't want Brexit and I still want the UK to come through it while suffering as little as possible.

But there is absolutely nothing either of us can do about it. Johnson is in charge for the foreseeable future, and you keeping a stiff upper lip and pretending there isn't going to be a big impact is not going to change that.

Call me Al

RobMc59 wrote: »

Looking through your posts your view of brexit and possible effects is balanced,if you read some of the replies to my post yesterday you'll see the type of stuff I'm talking about when I say there are posters who say the UK is done for.
As a British person who didn't want brexit but does care about his country isn't it reasonable to want your country to come through this?,Hopefully intact with a mutually agreeable trade/services deal with the EU which keeps the UK closely aligned to the EU but perhaps still able to trade freely with other countries.

Of course its reasonable to "want" that, but those things you list are not what the tory government is claiming it wants, for whatever reasons that may be.

And there comes a point where your "want" intersects the consequent market reality the tory government are lining up.
Nobody is saying the UK is "done for". We all i think accept that the UK will survive and come through eventually, but the shape of the economy and society will be changed. Most here pointing out the inevitable consequences the government appear to hurtling towards aren't talking down the UK when they say these things, they're simply spelling out cold hard facts. Wishing and believing won't change these things.

And in all honesty a desire for change appears to have been a motivating factor for many people to vote leave. Albeit that their vote will have consequences far different to what they will have been expecting.

Sam Russell

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Interesting example of EU cooperation:



https://www.rte.ie/news/world/2020/0128/1111351-coronavirus/

---

I'm sure those non-French citizens are glad of the EU right now. I wonder if any Brits in the will be on the flight?

BA have cancelled all their flights to and from mainland China with immediate effect.

Dyr

quokula wrote: »

The majority of the electorate voted against the conservatives and for parties that were either fully against Brexit or in favour of a softer one and a second referendum. Just because FPTP is completely unfit for purpose and produced an unrepresentative parliament doesn’t mean the majority voted for a hard Brexit.

Ah right so the problem is British Democracy, fixing the election so the Conservatives won the largest majority since the Thatcher era.


Even the most ardent remainers have given up blaming all this on gammons as a bad job. Keep the faith if it insulates you from the reality I suppose.

seamus

Sam Russell wrote: »

BA have cancelled all their flights to and from mainland China with immediate effect.

This does open the door for next week (or any time in the next few months), the EU arranging a cross-EU co-operation effort to airlift EU citizens from affected Chinese cities if they have no other means of getting out.

British people will arrive to register for assistance and will be turned away.*

When you make massive changes, you always get hit with consequences you never really considered.

The same will be true if there's an evacuation of EU embassies from a country where war has broken out.

*I actually don't think the EU is so hard-nosed, that's more of an American thing. Most likely they will include British citizens in any evacuation, in the queue behind EU citizens, and will retroactively bill the UK for it

Sam Russell

Bambi wrote: »

Ah right so the problem is British Democracy, fixing the election so the Conservatives won the largest majority since the Thatcher era.


Even the most ardent remainers have given up blaming all this on gammons as a bad job. Keep the faith if it insulates you from the reality I suppose.

Margaret Thatcher never got more than 43% of the popular vote in any of her election victories. FPTP disenfranchises more than half the electorate as the result in most constituencies is a forgone result.

The Tories are currently an English Nationalist party, with little or no support in NI or Scotland or Wales.

Leroy42

seamus wrote: »

This does open the door for next week (or any time in the next few months), the EU arranging a cross-EU co-operation effort to airlift EU citizens from affected Chinese cities if they have no other means of getting out.

British people will arrive to register for assistance and will be turned away.*

When you make massive changes, you always get hit with consequences you never really considered.

The same will be true if there's an evacuation of EU embassies from a country where war has broken out.

*I actually don't think the EU is so hard-nosed, that's more of an American thing. Most likely they will include British citizens in any evacuation, in the queue behind EU citizens, and will retroactively bill the UK for it

UK, regardless of EU, is more than capable of looking after their own citizens. They arranged for all Thomas Cook customers to be brought home last year.

reslfj

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

No-one has suggested the UK will collapse or sink without trace.

Best guess (as costed by the UK Government themselves) is an economic hit a bit worse than the 2008 crash.

This is a graph of HMG's own estimate of change in regional GDP as seen over a 15 years period.


With the latest development since and Boris negotiation plans:

• transition in 2020 only
• simple FTA wanted by the UK - a comprehensive FTA was used in the estimates above.
• Honda closes in 2021
• major change in the auto industry (electric cars within 10 years)
• the UK wants to deviate from EU standards - even if it's just on paper
• fish and farm products will be hit by serious NTBs even if zero tariffs is negotiated
• significant parts of London financial will move to EU27 (Eurozone, Amsterdam, Frankfurt, Paris, Madrid, Milano...)
• etc...

And very few documented UK-optimistic news since the above graph it does rather look worse than better for the UK.

One exception might be NI, where the now border in the Irish sea and NI in many ways remaining within the SM (for goods) wasn't a part of HMG's forcast - iirc.

Lars

PS! Do anyone recall if these estimates was with or without the UK wide CU in TM's WA deal?

reslfj

Leroy42 wrote: »

seamus wrote: »

This does open the door for next week (or any time in the next few months), the EU arranging a cross-EU co-operation effort to airlift EU citizens from affected Chinese cities if they have no other means of getting out.

British people will arrive to register for assistance and will be turned away.*

When you make massive changes, you always get hit with consequences you never really considered.

The same will be true if there's an evacuation of EU embassies from a country where war has broken out.

*I actually don't think the EU is so hard-nosed, that's more of an American thing. Most likely they will include British citizens in any evacuation, in the queue behind EU citizens, and will retroactively bill the UK for it

UK, regardless of EU, is more than capable of looking after their own citizens. They arranged for all Thomas Cook customers to be brought home last year.

The UK continues to be treated as an EU member in almost all cases. I think a common assistance to EU citizens will include UK citizens at least until end of transition.

And I agree, help in emergencies will likely be offered by EU27 and/or EU27 members anyway.


Lars

Enzokk

Bambi wrote: »

Ah right so the problem is British Democracy, fixing the election so the Conservatives won the largest majority since the Thatcher era.


Even the most ardent remainers have given up blaming all this on gammons as a bad job. Keep the faith if it insulates you from the reality I suppose.

Why do people go to some of the most absurd statements, you now and Rob yesterday. The same electoral system that returned 355 seats to Labour on 35% of the public vote in 2001 is broken.

Dyr

Sam Russell wrote: »

Margaret Thatcher never got more than 43% of the popular vote in any of her election victories. FPTP disenfranchises more than half the electorate as the result in most constituencies is a forgone result.

The Tories are currently an English Nationalist party, with little or no support in NI or Scotland or Wales.

There was referendum on changing FPTP and it was rejected

There was a referendum on Brexit and it passed

There was an election and the only party who ruled in a hard Brexit won an enormous majority

The United Kingdom has always been Anglocentric and the other constituent parts tagging along. The Scots rejected independance and it will likely be rejected in NI in the near future. They're signed up to being bit players in the decision making process. Maybe a hard brexit will change thatbut as of right no they're okay with it.


So bearing all that in mind: How much confirmation from the electorate do you actually need? Bitching about FPTP when it doesnt go a specific way is a bit rich, the electorate know how elections and referenda in the UK work and they're okay with it.


People may have to let go of the notion that Brexit is only supported by some mental construct of an angry little englander they have. Its a level of delusion to support a belief system that does not stack up.

CelticRambler

Picking up on a previous theme "what'll change for the Brits on 1st Feb? Well, nothing really ..." that's not entirely true. This year, France will elect its local councillors and as of Sunday morning, no British citizens can stand for (re)election or vote in the poll. That's something that'll be felt acutely in those towns and villages where the British immigrants make up a sizeable portion of the community, and are sometimes amongst the most active local politicians. There's been quite a lot of reporting on in it in the media this week (but so far it seems all the interesting articles are paywalled ).

L1011

That's oddly strict considering we allow anyone legally resident here to vote and stand in locals.

BonnieSituation

Local Councils in France would have a lot more power though than here. So I can see the merit in its restriction.

BonnieSituation

Here's a quick one.

The Irish Passport Card is valid for travel to and through the EU/EEA/CH (Its also valid in other non-EU states but that's not important for this query.)

With the CTA I don't need identification to travel to the UK, but an airline may insist on some form (I'm looking at you Ryanair).

What's the legal status of using one's passport card to travel to Britain if it hasn't got a legality as the UK will be outside of the EU/EEA? Would it be perfectly legitimate for say Ryanair to refuse to recognise it for travel to Britain?

This is a technical query it should be noted. I can't find anything referencing its legality in Britain after Jan 31st.

Strazdas

Bambi wrote: »

You mean the majority of the electorate?

Its a weird narrative to peddle but I suppose it comforts some people

Half of England does not represent "the British people".

Leave voters are the last people on earth people should be listening to about "democracy"......autocracy and authoritarianism maybe given their fondness for the hard right.

Dytalus

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Here's a quick one.

The Irish Passport Card is valid for travel to and through the EU/EEA/CH (Its also valid in other non-EU states but that's not important for this query.)

With the CTA I don't need identification to travel to the UK, but an airline may insist on some form (I'm looking at you Ryanair).

What's the legal status of using one's passport card to travel to Britain if it hasn't got a legality as the UK will be outside of the EU/EEA? Would it be perfectly legitimate for say Ryanair to refuse to recognise it for travel to Britain?

This is a technical query it should be noted. I can't find anything referencing its legality in Britain after Jan 31st.

My understanding is it's entirely down to the airline. The CTA means we don't have an immigration requirements travelling into the UK - that Ryanair asks for any ID at all is their own internal decision and not a legal issue. Unless the UK starts performing identity checks on people travelling from Ireland, I think it would be entirely up to the airline in question what is accepted as valid ID.

Leroy42

Bambi wrote: »

There was referendum on changing FPTP and it was rejected

There was a referendum on Brexit and it passed

There was an election and the only party who ruled in a hard Brexit won an enormous majority

The United Kingdom has always been Anglocentric and the other constituent parts tagging along. The Scots rejected independance and it will likely be rejected in NI in the near future. They're signed up to being bit players in the decision making process. Maybe a hard brexit will change thatbut as of right no they're okay with it.


So bearing all that in mind: How much confirmation from the electorate do you actually need? Bitching about FPTP when it doesnt go a specific way is a bit rich, the electorate know how elections and referenda in the UK work and they're okay with it.


People may have to let go of the notion that Brexit is only supported by some mental construct of an angry little englander they have. Its a level of delusion to support a belief system that does not stack up.

This is jusg another version of Mark Francois point that "We won, you lost!". Nobody is arguing that Brexit is going to happen. There are ligitimate argument around the voting system but is the system they have, the sytem the election was run under and as such the vote is to be respected.

But that brings us straight back to what Brexit actually means. Johnson hasn't got a clue, he is all for both a No deal and getting swift deal. Which version of his truth you choose to believe will lead to your version of Brexit.

Is their to be no alignment, some alignment? Johnson promised that there would be no custom checks between NI and GB, but that runs directly against the international agreement he just signed.

So what were people voting for?

BonnieSituation

Dytalus wrote: »

My understanding is it's entirely down to the airline. The CTA means we don't have an immigration requirements travelling into the UK - that Ryanair asks for any ID at all is their own internal decision and not a legal issue. Unless the UK starts performing identity checks on people travelling from Ireland, I think it would be entirely up to the airline in question what is accepted as valid ID.

That's my thinking alright. But I was thinking of technicalities and over-zealousness from certain airlines with no basis in law.

marno21

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

No-one has suggested the UK will collapse or sink without trace.


Best guess (as costed by the UK Government themselves) is an economic hit a bit worse than the 2008 crash.

It's incredibly difficult to predict, as there's no precedent of an advanced democracy pursuing policies deliberately designed to inflict economic damage on themselves through isolation, withdrawing from trade deals and international agreements and subsequently refusing to utilise facts, logic or reasoning in any policy approaches.

robinph

Japan locked themselves away for 220 years:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sakoku

Hope it doesn't take that long for the UK to come to its senses.

Strazdas

marno21 wrote: »

It's incredibly difficult to predict, as there's no precedent of an advanced democracy pursuing policies deliberately designed to inflict economic damage on themselves through isolation, withdrawing from trade deals and international agreements and subsequently refusing to utilise facts, logic or reasoning in any policy approaches.

Best case scenario is that it does them mild to moderate economic damage.

Worse case is that it will be recognised by everyone as a catastrophic blunder within five years and Cameron and Farage et al won't be able to leave their homes without bodyguards.