Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

shatners bassoon

I'll preface this by saying a massive thank you to all who post in this thread. I've been lurking since its fifth or sixth iteration and it really has been invaluable.

The vitriol towards the Labour stance does surprise me I have to say. I appreciate the difficulty in selling it to your average Joe on the street and the results may well reflect that but it's by far the most sensible option so far imo in that it makes an attempt to respect the referendum result while offering the public another opportunity to have a say.

However much I would like to see the UK remain, the Libdem policy is profoundly undemocratic. The fact that it can be distilled into an easily digestible soundbite doesn't make it any more reasonable/admirable.

I won't profess to know a great deal about Corbyn prior to the Brexit fiasco but to those who repeatedly call him out as useless and often, 'as bad as Boris', what could he have done differently that would change your opinion? That's a genuine question btw I have no allegiance to the guy.

Enzokk

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I understand it. But people like a slogan they understand. Labour's empty slogan, which could mean anything, belies the confusion and division throughout the party leadership. Other parties have definitive slogans and positions. Labour don't.

Sure, but they have only agreed to the election yesterday. If they are able to nail the message on Brexit a lot of that will disappear and something like, Let the people decide, should work wonders.

Zubeneschamali

shatners bassoon wrote: »

I won't profess to know a great deal about Corbyn prior to the Brexit fiasco but to those who repeatedly call him out as useless and often, 'as bad as Boris', what could he have done differently that would change your opinion?

Make it Labour policy to invade Iraq again.

ancapailldorcha

Enzokk wrote: »

The deal vs Remain.

Their policy is very simple, but you can make it complicated. Labour believes there is a better deal for the UK out there and would like to try and find out if there is. If they find one and it is beneficial they will back that new deal vs Remain.

If however the best deal is the Johnson deal then it will go against Remain. Either way the people will decide and have a choice between what has been negotiated and Remain. This is not complicated to understand, unless you are trying not to understand it.

In 2017, Andrew Neil asked Tim Farron why he was proposing to renegotiate a deal with the EU and then campaign to remain in the EU. It is simply a preposterous position. If we are to leave, I would be much happier with a Labour deal that includes environmental protections, enshrines workers' rights and promises parity with EU regulations. The EU will only return to the table if they smell big concessions, otherwise they'll simply point to the May/Johnson deal.

Enzokk wrote: »

Seven weeks is a long time for a message to be amplified. Heathrow 3rd runway, Garden Bridge, Affairs, Lied to the Queen, Rather die in a ditch than request an extension, Doesn't want an election.

Just a few more appearances like his at the Police academy where the recruit fainted and he babbled on and who knows how people will react at the poll booth.

Exactly. He has played the likeable bungler card for too long now to be seen as credible and nobody outside his core support base think of him as being remotely honest. He might win but if he does, it'll be a slim majority and we'll be no further on with this. Blair was able to take the centre and make huge gains. Johnson has done the opposite by moving to the right to placate his disaster capitalists and nationalists.

volchitsa

Labour definitely should do their best to move the issues towards all the other things that aren't being done because both previous Tory governments have spent all their time on (not) getting Brexit done.

IMO frustration with all that inaction is what is really behind the temptation to vote for any deal at all, and I can understand that. But it's not actual support for Brexit, is my point.

So yes, social issues etc, not only because Labour have strong points to make there, but also because people are sick of sterile Brexit discussions.

Obviously not getting bogged down over Brexit requires having a clear approach on it though, and I'm not sure they do yet. They need to show a united front.

The Lib Dems do, but they don't have Labour's record in government to point to so are less likely to be seen as a credible replacement government. I hope I'm wrong and that the two together will at least be able to make a coalition, but I wouldn't be sure of it at this stage.

prawnsambo

shatners bassoon wrote: »

I won't profess to know a great deal about Corbyn prior to the Brexit fiasco but to those who repeatedly call him out as useless and often, 'as bad as Boris', what could he have done differently that would change your opinion? That's a genuine question btw I have no allegiance to the guy.

I'd say that the first thing that brought him to my attention was his extremely lukewarm attitude towards campaigning for remain in the referendum. It was the party policy, yet he was so wishy-washy about it that (imo) he undermined the message (again imo, fatally). And he hasn't changed his stance since then. Aggressive fence-sitting is how I'd describe it.

A Dub in Glasgo

schmittel wrote: »

That's complete nonsense. The Lib Dems can revoke if their manifesto clearly says "We will revoke" and then they win a General Election on the strength of that manifesto.

I agree that outcome is unlikely, but if it did happen there could be no valid questions about democracy.

Is it though? The SNP are running with a mandate for independence and could declare an independent Scotland based on getting the majority of MPs in Scotland (similar to Ireland in 1918)

prawnsambo

In other news, Jess Philips has pointed to the irony in the Tory tagline. It is quite breathtakingly self unaware.

quokula

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

In 2017, Andrew Neil asked Tim Farron why he was proposing to renegotiate a deal with the EU and then campaign to remain in the EU. It is simply a preposterous position.

What would be less preposterous?

Assuming you're not a hardcore Brexiteer (which I believe Andrew Neil is based on various things I've seen him say over the years, though he is a skilled journalist capable of putting pressure on all sides)

And assuming you accept the revoke is just not something that can fly democratically - even if it happened it would be like gifting the next election to the far right so they can revoke again.

A referendum is the only viable way forward for the UK if you believe in close ties to the EU.

If one option is remain, there has to be another option.

Shouldn't the government provide a second option that they believe is credible? Rather than an option that was negotiated by a different party and they believe would be seriously damaging to the UK? Or an option of No Deal which would be utterly reckless?

ancapailldorcha

quokula wrote: »

What would be less preposterous?

Assuming you're not a hardcore Brexiteer (which I believe Andrew Neil is based on various things I've seen him say over the years, though he is a skilled journalist capable of putting pressure on all sides)

And assuming you accept the revoke is just not something that can fly democratically - even if it happened it would be like gifting the next election to the far right so they can revoke again.

A referendum is the only viable way forward for the UK if you believe in close ties to the EU.

If one option is remain, there has to be another option.

Shouldn't the government provide a second option that they believe is credible? Rather than an option that was negotiated by a different party and they believe would be seriously damaging to the UK? Or an option of No Deal which would be utterly reckless?

Is it not odd to negotiate a deal you intend to campaign against?

A referendum already has Johnson's deal as a second option so there is no issue there.

Zubeneschamali

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Is it though? The SNP are running with a mandate for independence and could declare an independent Scotland based on getting the majority of MPs in Scotland (similar to Ireland in 1918)

They won't, because Ireland in 1918 led to a war and then a civil war and then hostility and outright violence for many of the intervening 100 years, but they certainly could.

Instead they will keep campaigning for an orderly independence.

prawnsambo

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Is it not odd to negotiate a deal you intend to campaign against?

A referendum already has Johnson's deal as a second option so there is no issue there.

It's not odd if your intention is to try and appeal to your base which is split along the brexit faultline. They can dress it up all they like, but Labour are caught up in a leadership vacuum where the party is following what they think their electorate wants.

quokula

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Is it not odd to negotiate a deal you intend to campaign against?

A referendum already has Johnson's deal as a second option so there is no issue there.

But why not put something better? Again, Labour aren't looking for unicorns or squeezing something out of the EU, they're looking to remove Theresa May's red lines that they don't believe in.

Also Labour haven't said they would campaign against it, I'd imagine they will allow individual MPs to decide, just as the Tories did after Cameron's renegotiation prior to the 2016 referendum.

Enzokk

I am getting very tired of Johnson's style. His blabbering and repeating his words is grating me. If I am alone then Johnson will be okay, but if others start finding him grating and he continues this on the campaign it will be bad for him. His performance again today at PMQs is underwhelming again on the NHS and his problem is and will always be that the Tories has been in charge for 9 years so they cannot hide behind the faults of another government.

Another problem Johnson will have is any talk of parliament frustrating Brexit will be countered that he pulled the bill from parliament.

ancapailldorcha

quokula wrote: »

But why not put something better? Again, Labour aren't looking for unicorns or squeezing something out of the EU, they're looking to remove Theresa May's red lines that they don't believe in.

Also Labour haven't said they would campaign against it, I'd imagine they will allow individual MPs to decide, just as the Tories did after Cameron's renegotiation prior to the 2016 referendum.

All I can see Labour getting is something akin to or identical to EEA status and that's just objectively inferior to remaining.

True, Labour have not explicitly said that they will campaign against it but it does seem that many of their MP's will push for remain.

quokula

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

They won't, because Ireland in 1918 led to a war and then a civil war and then hostility and outright violence for many of the intervening 100 years, but they certainly could.

Instead they will keep campaigning for an orderly independence.

I think that's the point - the SNP can't just declare independence even if they win every seat, because there was a referendum they lost quite recently. Instead they quite rightly are campaigning for a new referendum given the new circumstances.

By the same token the Lib Dems can't just declare that they'll revoke article 50 even if they get a majority, because it would be in violation of a referendum where far more people voted to leave than would vote for them (even if they somehow got a large majority) - instead they should be doing what the SNP are doing, or what Labour are doing, and campaigning to give the people a new say given the new circumstances and information available.

Technically they could just revoke, just like technically the SNP could just claim independence, but it would be severely damaging and is not a credible way forward.

quokula

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

All I can see Labour getting is something akin to or identical to EEA status and that's just objectively inferior to remaining.

That's exactly what I see them getting, and it's objectively superior to every other possible option (other than remain, which they're also offering in a people's vote)

ancapailldorcha

quokula wrote: »

That's exactly what I see them getting, and it's objectively superior to every other possible option (other than remain, which they're also offering in a people's vote)

I'll still vote for that, mind. I'm just saying that Corbyn will need to come up with some sort of justification. He might even be able to woo the DUP if he commits to protecting the union.

Enzokk

And just another example of the Tories being out of touch and the challenge they will face,

https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1189515716363542528?s=20

That is Tory MPs heckling Corbyn on his tie when it is done in solidarity with the Grenfell report. You would have thought they would be aware of it.

Also, Johnson talking about the Tories being the party of the economy, but if they don't do impact assessments of his deal then Labour will use the independent ones out there that show a hit of up to 7% to GDP in the next 10 years. If Labour is able to amplify that message as well then it will be hard for Johnson to use this against Labour as effectively.

CelticRambler

The enthusiasm for predicting an outcome of the forthcoming election, as demonstrated by some posters on this thread, is impressive ... but surely doomed to failure! The only reliable factor that we can count on for this particular ballot is that it will be decided by the undemocratic FPTP system.

Other than that, this election will be aggressively fought by five parties on a more level playing field than ever before; it will be fought in the peak of pre-Christmas preparations; it will be fought against a background of ongoing lies and misinformation in relation to Brexit; it will be fought at the darkest part of the year; and it will be fought in the shadow of world events seen through the electorate's favourite social media filter. :cool:

All of this means that there's every likelihood that butterflies will be flapping their wings and causing hurricanes in safe-seat constituencies across the country. My prediction is that a combination of clever campaigning, low turnout and numerous protest votes will see the many jaws severely traumatised as they drop repeatedly throughout the night of the 12th-13th December. :pac:

Joe_ Public

Been hearing tory lies on morning. Going on about the "1bn being lost every month" they remain in EU. Or the "40 new hospitals" they claim to be building. All pure lies. The 20,000 "new" police officers. More spin. So much to get stuck into if they can get it away from brexit for a minute.

Varta

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

But "Get Brexit Done" is a shockingly bad slogan for the party who have been blathering about Brexit for years and getting nothing done.

It's an excellent slogan when you support it with the idea that it was the opposition that stopped Brexit from being done. Far too many people on here only seeing it from one side. Looking at it objectively I can see an awful lot of people voting on the basis of that slogan and a lot of remain voters dividing their vote fruitlessly between the opposition parties in the FPTP system.

ancapailldorcha

Because they are interactive, I can't display them here but The Economist have a poll tracker project some here might find useful:

https://projects.economist.com/uk-elections/poll-tracker/

quokula

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I'll still vote for that, mind. I'm just saying that Corbyn will need to come up with some sort of justification. He might even be able to woo the DUP if he commits to protecting the union.

They can probably get some stuff to point to on fishing independence (which is not a major industry but got ridiculously disproportionately during the referendum campaign) and maybe get some kind of nominal concession on state aid without compromising the level playing field.

Mainly they can say, legitimately, that it's a deal that does take them out of the EU, and the details aren't that important to all that many voters, as seen by the Tory's Get Brexit Done stance.

Russman

Enzokk wrote: »

I am getting very tired of Johnson's style. His blabbering and repeating his words is grating me. If I am alone then Johnson will be okay, but if others start finding him grating and he continues this on the campaign it will be bad for him. His performance again today at PMQs is underwhelming again on the NHS and his problem is and will always be that the Tories has been in charge for 9 years so they cannot hide behind the faults of another government.

Another problem Johnson will have is any talk of parliament frustrating Brexit will be countered that he pulled the bill from parliament.

You're right, but I think (unfortunately) the advantages the Cons have are that "get Brexit done" is a snappy, straight to the point soundbite. The electorate over there broadly won't dig any deeper than that. Labour's position, requires explanation, and as the saying goes, "if you're explaining, you're losing"
There are also several articles of faith, like the Conservatives being the party of the economy or the party of law and order etc etc., that, while being completely untrue, are still held onto by swathes of the electorate.

People generally don't listen to the rebuttal or counter argument anymore, hence the lies that have been allowed to be spouted, unchallenged, for the last 3 years. Johnson still has his "Have I Got News for You" persona as a default for many and people could easily feel an attachment for that reason alone, as opposed to, say a JRM, who they'll likely never come across.

Apologies if that seems discourteous to the UK people, its not the intention of the post.

quokula

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Because they are interactive, I can't display them here but The Economist have a poll tracker project some here might find useful:

https://projects.economist.com/uk-elections/poll-tracker/

From reading the trend in that poll, it looks very much like both the Cons and Labour lost large numbers of leave voters to the Brexit party at the EU referendum. The Cons got them back, but the Labour leavers have stayed Brexit Party as the party shifted more remain.

The BP have been very silent to date though so it will be interesting to see how much a role they play in a GE. FPTP and tactical voting could enormously change their impact too.

L1011

The volume of long-standing or otherwise senior (posts/former posts) MPs not standing is getting quite large. Going to be a very new looking parliament whatever happens.

David Lidington seems to be the most recent today but that'll be out of date shortly!

Joe_ Public

Low blow but very funny from jess phillips, praising Bercow for, among other things, being a great father to his children.

"And now to the prime minister...."

Varta

I think it is important to remember that most political forums are peopled by anoraks, including this excellent one. Whereas a great many voters will vote simply on the basis of a slogan that appeals to them or whether the candidate appeals to them on a personal level. When we discuss the details of manifestos or campaigns we are talking about details that will affect the voting of, at best, about 20% of the electorate.

Strazdas

Varta wrote: »

It's an excellent slogan when you support it with the idea that it was the opposition that stopped Brexit from being done. Far too many people on here only seeing it from one side. Looking at it objectively I can see an awful lot of people voting on the basis of that slogan and a lot of remain voters dividing their vote fruitlessly between the opposition parties in the FPTP system.

Swinson and Corbyn need to keep tearing into that slogan once the TV debates get underway. If they can expose it as a lie, they can do damage to Johnson.