Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

RobMc59

Call me Al wrote: »

Yeah, they also said there would be no border down the Irish sea and look where we are now.

The dangling of the carrot (licences) is the start of the negotiation phase for fisheries.

I'd prefer a joint Irish/British fishing zone myself with both nations having control.

MrMusician18

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Replace the word UK with Russia and rewind back 30 years, we do have an analogue in history to compare Brexit too.

Russia isn't a failed state, a failed democracy perhaps - but not a failed state.

CelticRambler

Infini wrote: »

Scotland will be gone from the UK along with NI being reunified with usand back inside the EU by the end of the decade while England rots as a failed state...

I agree with MrMusician18, who echoes remarks made by RobMc59 and others:

MrMusician18 wrote: »

This kind of hyperbole doesn't help. The UK might break up because of the pressures from Brexit, but even going alone England will not become a failed state.

England will not become a "failed state" in any modern sense - take Scotland and NI out of the mix and you're left with a bog-standard, two-party, sort-of democratic-ish, somewhat elitist political class that will continue to run the country for their own amusement, and a general population that (for the most part, based on the last several decades) couldn't really give a fig or a f**k about what their elected representatives do.

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Replace the word UK with Russia and rewind back 30 years, we do have an analogue in history to compare Brexit too.

You'd have to go back about a hundred years to find Russia at the height of its standing in the world. For your 30-years-ago analogy, you'd have to replace the word "UK" with "the Soviet Union" instead of Russia. The CCCP back then was in no way comparable to the UK of today, other having one big country at its heart that had annexed some smaller countries in the past, and then lost them.

So yes, the UK will break up. NI will re-join the EU as part of a United Ireland, Scotland will almost certainly achieve independence and probably join the EU on a faster track than Albania. Some weird stuff might happen with places like Gibraltar, Shetland, the Channel Islands, the Isle of Man, maybe even Cornwall ... but there'll still be enough of England & Wales left, with enough cross-border (and cross-cultural) connections to ensure the territory's survival as an economic entity.

Whether an amputated UK can justify maintaining a permanent seat on the UN's Security Council, however, is another matter entirely. Taking the U out of the UK and the G out of GB to leave a less politically relevant EW gives every wanabee superpower a strong argument in favour of taking over the chair. I think it'd be the ultimate irony (and/or humiliation) if Britain were to be replaced by India at the Security Council.

MrMusician18

CelticRambler wrote: »

I agree with MrMusician18, who echoes remarks made by RobMc59 and others:


England will not become a "failed state" in any modern sense - take Scotland and NI out of the mix and you're left with a bog-standard, two-party, sort-of democratic-ish, somewhat elitist political class that will continue to run the country for their own amusement, and a general population that (for the most part, based on the last several decades) couldn't really give a fig or a f**k about what their elected representatives do.


You'd have to go back about a hundred years to find Russia at the height of its standing in the world. For your 30-years-ago analogy, you'd have to replace the word "UK" with "the Soviet Union" instead of Russia. The CCCP back then was in no way comparable to the UK of today, other having one big country at its heart that had annexed some smaller countries in the past, and then lost them.

So yes, the UK will break up. NI will re-join the EU as part of a United Ireland, Scotland will almost certainly achieve independence and probably join the EU on a faster track than Albania. Some weird stuff might happen with places like Gibraltar, Shetland, the Channel Islands, the Isle of Man, maybe even Cornwall ... but there'll still be enough of England & Wales left, with enough cross-border (and cross-cultural) connections to ensure the territory's survival as an economic entity.

Whether an amputated UK can justify maintaining a permanent seat on the UN's Security Council, however, is another matter entirely. Taking the U out of the UK and the G out of GB to leave a less politically relevant EW gives every wanabee superpower a strong argument in favour of taking over the chair. I think it'd be the ultimate irony (and/or humiliation) if Britain were to be replaced by India at the Security Council.

I don't think the UK or England will lose it's seat on the security council but I can see a new class of security council member being created, the permanent but not veto holding type. England might get demoted to that type.

Seth Brundle

This is moving (United in Diversity)...

https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1222576142928023552

WomanSkirtFan8

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

How long before the Republic applies to become a member of the UK again? The answers are probably very similar.

easy answer to that Never.

Zubeneschamali

MrMusician18 wrote: »

A failed state is one that doesnt have an effective government

The UK would be better off with an ineffective government, this one is going to wreck the country very effectively.

NIMAN

Not sure if posted yet but thought Naomi Long's leaving speech was very good at the European Parliament (even if it was interrupted)

reslfj

reslfj wrote: »

Is it this?
https://www.newstalk.com/podcasts/henry-mckean-on-the-hard-shoulder/britains-identity-live-identity-brexitday-belfast

Lars

Yep that’s the one, shocking stuff.

J Mysterio

Arlene Foster will be on the Late Late Show on Friday.

FrancieBrady

NIMAN wrote: »

Not sure if posted yet but thought Naomi Long's leaving speech was very good at the European Parliament (even if it was interrupted)

A little recognition of Dublin's efforts would have been nice.

Frank Bullitt

https://twitter.com/MichaelPDeacon/status/1222864870695227398

Not much to add to this, didn't know Davidson was a gammon.

Not many people in that mirror.

MrMusician18

Gintonious wrote: »

https://twitter.com/MichaelPDeacon/status/1222864870695227398

Not much to add to this, didn't know Davidson was a gammon.

Not did I know that he couldn't get a suit to fit!

Quin_Dub

Gintonious wrote: »

https://twitter.com/MichaelPDeacon/status/1222864870695227398

Not much to add to this, didn't know Davidson was a gammon.

Given his entire career, you weren't really expecting him to be a champion of Multi-culturalism ,Feminism and Globalisation were you?

Frank Bullitt

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Given his entire career, you weren't really expecting him to be a champion of Multi-culturalism ,Feminism and Globalisation were you?

Not quite, but I wouldn't have put him as a Farage sock puppet either

Quin_Dub

Gintonious wrote: »

Not quite, but I wouldn't have put him as a Farage sock puppet either

Davidson would be right up the typical Brexit voters street though.

I'd have thought that Jim Davidson would take a paid gig off anyone that would consider having him at this stage even if he wasn't a big fan. I somehow doubt his agent is stressed handling all the offers coming in

Frank Bullitt

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Davidson would be right up the typical Brexit voters street though.

I'd have thought that Jim Davidson would take a paid gig off anyone that would consider having him at this stage even if he wasn't a big fan. I somehow doubt his agent is stressed handling all the offers coming in

If it helps him to get a properly fitted suit, I am all for it.

RobMc59

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Unfortunately, those sneaky EU bureaucrats have twigged this and have included fisheries in their own negotiating strategy.

If the UK won't agree to Common Fisheries, then the UK may not agree tarriff and quota free market access for fish from the UK. While the fishing industry and fish consuming consumers are important to the EU, its paramount concern is preserving fishing stocks. So without agreement that the UK will not overfish, the EU will have no choice but to stop buying their fish.

Did you read the attached Gov.uk bullitin?Thats exactly what was said there,protect the fisheries.

RobMc59

seamus wrote: »

This does open the door for next week (or any time in the next few months), the EU arranging a cross-EU co-operation effort to airlift EU citizens from affected Chinese cities if they have no other means of getting out.

British people will arrive to register for assistance and will be turned away.*

When you make massive changes, you always get hit with consequences you never really considered.

The same will be true if there's an evacuation of EU embassies from a country where war has broken out.

*I actually don't think the EU is so hard-nosed, that's more of an American thing. Most likely they will include British citizens in any evacuation, in the queue behind EU citizens, and will retroactively bill the UK for it

That sounds incredibly petty,especially in view of the UK attitude to the same problem.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/asia-pacific/coronavirus-three-irish-people-to-be-evacuated-from-wuhan-1.4156521

moon2

RobMc59 wrote: »

That sounds incredibly petty,especially in view of the UK attitude to the same problem.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/asia-pacific/coronavirus-three-irish-people-to-be-evacuated-from-wuhan-1.4156521

As the UK are still an EU member, this is definitely an expectation and it's great to see it happening! I hope it continues during the next year and a long term agreement can be reached.

What the OP described could be considered petty, but do keep in mind it's a personal opinion and not an EU position. I don't call that out for your benefit, but I have seen countless posters respond to personal opinions of that nature saying "that's another reason to support why we're leaving the EU. The EU is a monster".

Whatever the eventual outcome is, it will be the product of negotiations with the UK, taking into account any MFN clauses with other countries. If we end up with a recipricol agreement, then great!

An Ciarraioch

Barnier is set to recommend an Association Agreement as the preferred negotiating framework, along the lines of the current relationship with Ukraine:

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-barnier/eus-barnier-eyes-loose-association-deal-as-basis-for-new-british-ties-idUSKBN1ZS1P1

ThePanjandrum

WomanSkirtFan8 wrote: »

easy answer to that Never.

Thank you. You're the first to see the obvious answer.

RobMc59

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Barnier is set to recommend an Association Agreement as the preferred negotiating framework, along the lines of the current relationship with Ukraine:

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-barnier/eus-barnier-eyes-loose-association-deal-as-basis-for-new-british-ties-idUSKBN1ZS1P1

That sounds very civilised and hopefully can be the basis for a mutually acceptable deal.

eire4

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Barnier is set to recommend an Association Agreement as the preferred negotiating framework, along the lines of the current relationship with Ukraine:

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-barnier/eus-barnier-eyes-loose-association-deal-as-basis-for-new-british-ties-idUSKBN1ZS1P1

The last line struck me there when he talks about the implementation of the withdrawal agreement. Probably rightly so there is a lack of trust on the EU side.

SantaCruz

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Thank you. You're the first to see the obvious answer.

The difference is that England enslaved and raped Ireland and its people and left us a famine-ridden, impoverished, backward, post-colonial dump.

Conversely, the EU saved the UK from economic ruin and allowed it become one of the most successful economies in the world.

That you would conflate these scenarios speaks volumes.

RobMc59

eire4 wrote: »

The last line struck me there when he talks about the implementation of the withdrawal agreement. Probably rightly so there is a lack of trust on the EU side.

I think in any such scenario,the UK will be required to give cast iron,watertight undertaking to adhere to any agreement-I doubt `cross my heart and hope to die if I tell a lie`won`t cut it.

black forest

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Barnier is set to recommend an Association Agreement as the preferred negotiating framework, along the lines of the current relationship with Ukraine:

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-barnier/eus-barnier-eyes-loose-association-deal-as-basis-for-new-british-ties-idUSKBN1ZS1P1

This is a quite sensible approach of the EU and Barnier. More about it...


https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1222879561492332544?s=21


For better reading the whole text.


If Johnson can get around the Tory hardliners this would open up a completely new possibility. A framework to furnish this skeleton of a house with furniture of his choice. After getting the twelve strands of the coming negotiations in one row of course. But this would get a lot of pressure out of the timing as a lot of the ‘furniture‘ could get added even after 2020. Without the permanent hassle of something like the ever moving of the more than 100 treaties the Swiss have with the EU.

Very interesting, the EU never stops to surprise me.😉

Professor Moriarty

Wonderful mood music so far. All good friends and jolly good company. However, it's important to remember that, as these negotiations evolve, a fundamental existential imperative for the EU is that Britain cannot be better off outside the EU.

Strazdas

Sir Ivan Rogers has given an interview this afternoon (before Barnier's intervention) - he predicts Johnson will be loud and belligerent this year, things to kick off by this summer with a real risk of No Deal by autumn.

https://twitter.com/PeterClemons11/status/1222882130008645633