Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

gooch2k9

Tacitus Kilgore wrote: »

I may not have articulated my point correctly, but surely you know what I mean?


They state that driving licences, pet passports, EHIC cards etc remain unchanged after Brexit, but with no mention at all what will happen post-transition period - which is when the actual effects of Brexit kick in.

They have several other articles regarding post-transition Brexit such as https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-50838994.


The "seven things" article read more like a fluff piece to me rather than serious journalism.

Tacitus Kilgore

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Literally the opening two paragraphs. No one knows what happens after the transition

gooch2k9 wrote: »

They have several other articles regarding post-transition Brexit such as https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-50838994.


The "seven things" article read more like a fluff piece to me rather than serious journalism.

I'm clearly not awake enough this morning to be posting here. Apologies.

robinph

Even for coin collectors £995 has to count as an excessive price for a 50p?

BBC News wrote:

The 50p coin to commemoarate Brexit has had a rocky history thanks to missed deadlines.

But now it has a final date, it is proving very popular.

You may see a silver one pop up in your change, but the Royal Mint also put 1,500 special edition gold coins on sale on Friday - costing £995 each.

However, according to the website, they have already sold out.

The coin is embossed with the date and the words: "Peace, prosperity and friendship with all nations."

MrMusician18

robinph wrote: »

Even for coin collectors £995 has to count as an excessive price for a 50p?

If it's the same size as a 50p, the weight in fine gold would probably account for half the value just as scrap.

An Ciarraioch

For the next 11 months, the most interesting aspect will be how the European institutions themselves develop following the departure of Britain - there will be some, like Macron and Verhofstadt, who will push for immediate moves towards federalism, the Eastern Europeans will favour the restoration of powers to national governments, and the majority, including Ireland, will be more gradualist, favouring some incremental reforms agreed by consensus.

Dymo

Finally the day is here, it's been very quiet here since the UK election but I'm looking forward now to the future trade deal, I'm think now Europe will discard the overly nice attitude they had during then negotiation process and start working for the best deal for Europe.

boggerman1

Listening to James O’Brien today for the first time since the U.K. election and it was the same old stuff again.best summed up by the 2nd last caller about how he was delighted with Independence Day.the usual thing.after ranting and raving when asked by James for one thing he was looking forward to that he couldn’t do until now there was silence.sums up brexit in a nutshell

MrMusician18

Dymo wrote: »

Finally the day is here, it's been very quiet here since the UK election but I'm looking forward now to the future trade deal, I'm think now Europe will discard the overly nice attitude they had during then negotiation process and start working for the best deal for Europe.

What I would like to see this process referred to in the media as "Brexit, Phase 2". Johnson has decreed that the next stage shouldn't be called "Brexit" (because he got that done, right) and wants the word to die away.

He doesn't however get to choose the words other people use. He shouldn't be granted this wish as it only serves him.

BonnieSituation

Igotadose wrote: »

Interesting article, one of I'm sure a slew of upcoming ones in the Indo: UK expats, who were local politicians in France and elsewhere, and sometimes very long term residents, are getting booted from office as of tomorrow and losing the right to vote in elections: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/brexit-british-expats-voting-rights-france-germany-european-union-a9309916.html

Nice comment: "So the municipal voting right was perhaps too much democratic representation for UK to handle."

Indy*

----

Interesting how they go through that entire article and then at the very end refer to "British-expatriates". They probably live near Irish-immigrants.

newport2

MrMusician18 wrote: »

If it's the same size as a 50p, the weight in fine gold would probably account for half the value just as scrap.

That will plummet after the transition period when Britain has finally thrown off it shackles, resumes where Newton left off and becomes a world leader in alchemy.
Apparently the EU has been imposing a strict quota on how much gold they could produce to date.

CrabRevolution

Thargor wrote: »

Oh my God, who could have forseen this?

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/politics/sajid-javid-abandons-pre-election-pledge-to-end-austerity-after-just-4-months/30/01/

This article is suggested alongside that one:

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/chlorinated-chicken-will-be-part-of-a-post-brexit-trade-agreement-pompeo-says/30/01/

Again, who saw it coming?

I also read the The US Secretary of State said “we need to be open and honest about competitiveness” line to mean "you need to realise how much bigger than you we are, and we will be giving nothing away if it doesn't suit us".

Tell me how

Listening to Simon Coveney on Newstalk this morning, it really would be a shame to see him have to step back from his involvement on Brexit.
He has been exceptional throughout.

Could definitely see him having a very senior role in EU politics in the next 10 years if he chose to do so.
It is a downside of the party political system where, if your team doesn't win, there's no place for you in government.

Trying to build consensus outside of some sort of cohesion such as the parties bring would be nigh on impossible though and I am not a big fan of the US system where secretaries are appointed to key ministerial type roles.

greenfield21

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-31/euro-area-sees-slowest-growth-since-2013-as-france-italy-shrink?srnd=premium-europe

Look what the UK are going to miss out on and we still haven't seen the negative effects of the US china trade deal yet. Fun times ahead, more stimulus needed.

Enzokk

In case there was any doubts still about checks between NI and the UK,

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1223290780518842368?s=20

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1223290785799516160?s=20

In an interview with
@rtenews
Ms von der Leyen said: “Of course there will be checks between NI + Great Britain as it is written down in the Withdrawal Agreement. The checks will be done by the Brits under the supervision of the European Union and the European Court of Justice.”

She said: “It is very clear in the Withdrawal Agreement – and this is set into law because it has been ratified by both parliaments, the European one and the British one."

So we are there again, where reality meets fantasy and it is a brick wall. Johnson doesn't want to be a rule taker and doesn't want to get close to the ECJ, but if he wants to keep his promises of no checks between NI and the UK, something will have to give.

Don't know which way he is going to go, either road is strewn with obstacles that cost May her job. Will he be able to skirt his way through it unscathed as the reality of his agreement becomes clear? Or will he be found out during the negotiations when the reality will have to be faced head on and the chancellor breaks his own promise of austerity having ended? There will be a short time of celebration from Brexiteers in the next week or even month, but once the negotiations start up again it is going to be fascinating to see how this plays out.

CelticRambler

CrabRevolution wrote: »

This article is suggested alongside that one:

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/chlorinated-chicken-will-be-part-of-a-post-brexit-trade-agreement-pompeo-says/30/01/

Again, who saw it coming?

I also read the The US Secretary of State said “we need to be open and honest about competitiveness” line to mean "you need to realise how much bigger than you we are, and we will be giving nothing away if it doesn't suit us".

I wonder if the drip-drip-drip of trade negotiations will be the eventual downfall of the Brexit project. "Leave vs. Remain" was a nice, juicy polar-opposites story for the media to get worked up about; but now that Johnson has declared it over and done with, they'll be looking for something else to obsess about.

I can see a situation developing over the course of a year (or five) where different aspects of the trade deal (such as American animal welfare standards) or personal stories of Brits suffering because of their "third country" status are given prominence on the front pages of some tabloids - "we didn't vote for this" type hysterics - that override any influence exerted by the ERG and whatever's left of the Brexit Party.

In a curious quirk of ... fate? die-hard Remainers will probably be able to use the same media that crucified them over the last three years to whip up opposition to numerous aspects of future proposed deals, much like was done against the TIPP arrangements.

Joe_ Public

Enzokk wrote: »

In case there was any doubts still about checks between NI and the UK,

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1223290780518842368?s=20

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1223290785799516160?s=20



So we are there again, where reality meets fantasy and it is a brick wall. Johnson doesn't want to be a rule taker and doesn't want to get close to the ECJ, but if he wants to keep his promises of no checks between NI and the UK, something will have to give.

Don't know which way he is going to go, either road is strewn with obstacles that cost May her job. Will he be able to skirt his way through it unscathed as the reality of his agreement becomes clear? Or will he be found out during the negotiations when the reality will have to be faced head on and the chancellor breaks his own promise of austerity having ended? There will be a short time of celebration from Brexiteers in the next week or even month, but once the negotiations start up again it is going to be fascinating to see how this plays out.

Not just that there will be checks, but that the eu will have to maintain a physical presence of some nature on that border, or whatever you want to call it, between ni and uk. Suppose they can hope nobody talks about it and can just pretend they wont be there at all.

CrabRevolution

CelticRambler wrote: »

I wonder if the drip-drip-drip of trade negotiations will be the eventual downfall of the Brexit project. "Leave vs. Remain" was a nice, juicy polar-opposites story for the media to get worked up about; but now that Johnson has declared it over and done with, they'll be looking for something else to obsess about.

I can see a situation developing over the course of a year (or five) where different aspects of the trade deal (such as American animal welfare standards) or personal stories of Brits suffering because of their "third country" status are given prominence on the front pages of some tabloids - "we didn't vote for this" type hysterics - that override any influence exerted by the ERG and whatever's left of the Brexit Party.

In a curious quirk of ... fate? die-hard Remainers will probably be able to use the same media that crucified them over the last three years to whip up opposition to numerous aspects of future proposed deals, much like was done against the TIPP arrangements.

I think it will take a long time, if ever for them to express any doubt.

More likely IMO is for the brexiters to just recast their story and decide they wanted lower standards all along and that British farmers are just remoaners for disagreeing with US food imports and are "failing to see the great opportunities brexit has brought".

CelticRambler

Enzokk wrote: »

either road is strewn with obstacles that cost May her job. Will he be able to skirt his way through it unscathed as the reality of his agreement becomes clear? Or will he be found out during the negotiations when the reality will have to be faced head on

Take a leaf out of his mate Donald's playbook: checks? what checks? I don't remember talking about checks? And if I did, I didn't mean no checks when I said no checks, I meant not the kind of checks we used to have. These are different, and they aren't checks anyway: they're just necessary administrative procedures that we always said would come into play once we regained our independence.

Or some such nonsense.

10000maniacs

Well here it is, Britain are finally leaving. The Tories have nobody to blame now and have to deliver the "Broad sunlit uplands" promised after the referendum. Good luck to them. Ireland will need it.

CelticRambler

CrabRevolution wrote: »

More likely IMO is for the brexiters to just recast their story and decide they wanted lower standards all along and that British farmers are just remoaners for disagreeing with US food imports and are "failing to see the great opportunities brexit has brought".

But that's exactly it: suddenly the Brexiters are the "élite" and the plucky little Brit with the hidden camera showing baby American chicks being liquidised and turned into Tesco nuggets is the hero of the hour. Or Stacey and Daryl, whose romantic getaway in Prague or Budapest turned into a HOLIDAY NIGHTMARE because their visa-waivers weren't in order, and they were caught with some undeclared pork pies in their luggage and it cost them hundreds of GBP to phone home on non-EU rates to ask for their bail money ...

A media that is starved of scandal will go looking for it, and the bad sides of a trade deal wil always be easier to sell than the benefits.

sid waddell

CelticRambler wrote: »

I wonder if the drip-drip-drip of trade negotiations will be the eventual downfall of the Brexit project. "Leave vs. Remain" was a nice, juicy polar-opposites story for the media to get worked up about; but now that Johnson has declared it over and done with, they'll be looking for something else to obsess about.

I can see a situation developing over the course of a year (or five) where different aspects of the trade deal (such as American animal welfare standards) or personal stories of Brits suffering because of their "third country" status are given prominence on the front pages of some tabloids - "we didn't vote for this" type hysterics - that override any influence exerted by the ERG and whatever's left of the Brexit Party.

In a curious quirk of ... fate? die-hard Remainers will probably be able to use the same media that crucified them over the last three years to whip up opposition to numerous aspects of future proposed deals, much like was done against the TIPP arrangements.

Nah. What's happened with Trump and his supporters should disabuse people of any notions that Brexiteers will come to their senses. Brexit is a cult and blame for its failure will be directed outwards at the EU and inwards at "liberals" and immigrants and British politics will turn really nasty, not that it isn't already, but in a more frightening way than before.

It's increasingly obvious that the vast majority of people who vote for right wing political projects have a total inability and an outright hostility to admitting they were ever wrong about anything.

That's because people vote for right-wing politics based on identity, "personalities" and some nebulous concept called "culture" - not policy.

The only thing that can bring Britain back to the EU is the Brexiteers literally dying off.

CelticRambler

I caught part of a speech given by Macron this evening, where he spoke directly to the Brits who've made their home in France, saying that he knows that France is their home today, and they can still call it home from tomorrow onwards (... but no, sorry, you can't vote or be candidates in the local elections)

He also told the French ex-pats in the UK that he'll look out for them, and is heading over to London shortly to get that side of things sorted out sooner rather than later.

A speech refreshingly free of Johnsonesque waffle and Trumpian hyperbole.

CelticRambler

sid waddell wrote: »

Nah. What's happened with Trump and his supporters should disabuse people of any notions that Brexiteers will come to their senses. Brexit is a cult and blame for its failure will be directed outwards at the EU and inwards at "liberals" and immigrants and British politics will turn really nasty, not that it isn't already, but in a more frightening way than before.

The difference, as I see it, between Trump supporters and Brexiters is that the former were/still are united behind a single identifiable god in human form; Brexiters, though, are a mixed bunch and the pantomime of May's premiership showed that they're perfectly happy to tear into each other over what they consider to be the right amount of Brexitiness.

This is why I think that tomorrow is the start of a new era: Britain is out of the EU - no ifs, buts, maybe, sort-of-ish about it. From now on, everything is about trade deals (boooorrring) so it's going to be BrexitVision1 vs. BrexitVision2 for the foreseeable future. With every day that passes, it'll matter a heck of a lot less whether you were a Leaver or a Remainer, especially when the story of the day is whether or not you want MRSA with your burger?

Bit cynical

CelticRambler wrote: »

I caught part of a speech given by Macron this evening, where he spoke directly to the Brits who've made their home in France, saying that he knows that France is their home today, and they can still call it home from tomorrow onwards

Good to see reciprocation from the French in this matter.

Mr.Nice Guy

Delighted that this day has finally come. The pitiful antics of Farage, Widdecombe and co. perfectly illustrated why the rest of Europe is better off without them. I believe Brexit will pave the way for a dramatic realignment of power on these islands with Scotland going for independence within the next decade, followed by the long awaited reunification of Ireland. Exciting times. Future generations will marvel that the most passionate of flag-waving unionists enabled this to happen.

Bit cynical

greenfield21 wrote: »

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-31/euro-area-sees-slowest-growth-since-2013-as-france-italy-shrink?srnd=premium-europe

Look what the UK are going to miss out on

In fairness that those figures are for the Eurozone which has always been a bit of a disaster. The UK was never a member of that grouping.

CrabRevolution

sid waddell wrote: »

Nah. What's happened with Trump and his supporters should disabuse people of any notions that Brexiteers will come to their senses. Brexit is a cult and blame for its failure will be directed outwards at the EU and inwards at "liberals" and immigrants and British politics will turn really nasty, not that it isn't already, but in a more frightening way than before.

It's increasingly obvious that the vast majority of people who vote for right wing political projects have a total inability and an outright hostility to admitting they were ever wrong about anything.

That's because people vote for right-wing politics based on identity, "personalities" and some nebulous concept called "culture" - not policy.

The only thing that can bring Britain back to the EU is the Brexiteers literally dying off.

That's exactly it. I read an article a few months back where the authors were following a charity healthcare organisation that travelled around the USA setting up in local schools and halls and giving free medical and dental care to the community. People would queue from the previous day in order to get a slot.

They interviewed many of the patients of the charity, and a sentence that stuck out to me was along the lines of "I was struck by how many would declare their strong support for Trump and how he had made america great, while they were standing in a queue for a charity that was their only access to healthcare"

Once it takes hold, people jump into the cult lock stock and barrel. Nothing will change their minds. Every consequence from brexit will be what they wanted since day 1 and even the things that seem negative are worth it.

An Ciarraioch

Let's recall that if the SNP had voted Yes, the Commons would have voted for a Customs Union:

https://ig.ft.com/brexit-second-round-indicative-votes/

And given the WAB was agreed before the election, Johnson could hardly have overturned such a move in December.

SantaCruz

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Let's recall that if the SNP had voted Yes, the Commons would have voted for a Customs Union:

https://ig.ft.com/brexit-second-round-indicative-votes/

And given the WAB was agreed before the election, Johnson could hardly have overturned such a move in December.

True, but the SNP are fighting their own cause, as is their right.

SantaCruz

Bit cynical wrote: »

In fairness that those figures are for the Eurozone which has always been a bit of a disaster. The UK was never a member of that grouping.

Yes, a look at the blasted economic wastelands of Western Europe totally bears out your point.