Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

serfboard

Gintonious wrote: »

Christ...almighty.

Will it ever stop?

This is what Paul Krugman refers to as a Zombie idea - an idea that has been so thoroughly debunked that it should be dead, but that somehow keeps resurrecting itself. In this case, it's another version of the "They need us more than we need them" Zombie.

Here is a quote that sums up the attitude:

Joseph Goebbels wrote:

The English follow the principle that when one lies, it should be a big lie, and one should stick to it. They keep up their lies, even at the risk of looking ridiculous.

Plus ca change!

Professor Moriarty

RobMc59 wrote: »

You're assuming that Scotland will vote to leave the UK.Their fishermen are much more protective of the fishing grounds around Scotland than the rest of the UK and that alone could a showstopper imo. Its common knowledge here in the UK that the EU are salivating over the UK fishing grounds.

Fishing accounts for 0.2% of Scotland's economy. It provides 0.2% of employment. In other words, it provides 1/500th of the economy and 1 in 500 jobs.

CelticRambler

robinph wrote: »

That they didn't try to limit the UK rights of Irish passport holders when they were viewed as being the blowing stuff up people, I can't see there being any appetite to do so now.

Parts of the CTA were suspended during the 70s in response to the blowing-stuff-up people's activity. I posted a link to the info in a previous thread ...

Professor Moriarty

Gintonious wrote: »

https://twitter.com/talkRADIO/status/1232618719249129474

Christ...almighty.

Will it ever stop?

When these hard Brexiteers threaten the EU, they really mean Ireland. Sometimes the mask slips, as in JRM and Patel when they threatened Ireland directly, but usually the threat is implicit.

RobMc59

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Fishing accounts for 0.2% of Scotland's economy. It provides 0.2% of employment. In other words, it provides 1/500th of the economy and 1 in 500 jobs.

Of course you can underestimate the importance of fishing but it's a matter of principle to them,they in particular see it as part of their culture and as previously pointed out by ACD I believe,although a relatively small industry its very important to them.

Professor Moriarty

RobMc59 wrote: »

Of course you can underestimate the importance of fishing but it's a matter of principle to them,they in particular see it as part of their culture and as previously pointed out by ACD I believe,although a relatively small industry its very important to them.

I'm sure it is. However, I'd also be wondering about what the other 99.8% of the economy thinks is right for Scotland.

sondagefaux

Bit cynical wrote: »

I think it is important not to get hung up on forms of words. I have never suggested at any point that we are not full members of the EU or in any way separate from it.

But you certainly post in a way that suggests you think the EU is something that gets done to Ireland.

Capt'n Midnight

RobMc59 wrote: »

You're assuming that Scotland will vote to leave the UK.Their fishermen are much more protective of the fishing grounds around Scotland than the rest of the UK and that alone could a showstopper imo. Its common knowledge here in the UK that the EU are salivating over the UK fishing grounds.

What % of Scottish catch is landed in foreign ports by foreign owned and crewed boats that are nominally British ?


How come the Faroese can fish in Scottish waters but not visa-versa when fish exports to the UK account for a third of the Faroese economy ?



Quota transfers and trawler re-registering is easy.
A 4.8m dingy holds nearly a fifth of all fishing rights for the South West of England. Better still since it doesn't actually fish it can't have it's licence frozen for an infraction.

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Fishing accounts for 0.2% of Scotland's economy. It provides 0.2% of employment. In other words, it provides 1/500th of the economy and 1 in 500 jobs.

Local fishermen only get a tiny share of that tiny slice of the economy

“inshore” vessels must fish from a pool of quota amounting to less than 2%, despite making up around 79% of the UK fishing fleet.

Fishing was sold off to big business, that ship has sailed.

sondagefaux

Bit cynical wrote: »

Yes, like joining the Euro, it can be postponed indefinitely though politically it may not be acceptable even to have the requirement even to eventually join Schengen and give up whatever CTA they have arranged with rUK (assuming a majority emerges for independence). Similarly with the Euro which also does not require immediate membership. These things were discussed during the last independence debate.

No member state not already in Schengen can be compelled to join.

If a member state fails to take steps to join Schengen, the only sanction the EU can impose is to not allow it to join.

The EU can't step in and impose
Schengen on a state that refuses to make preparations to join Schengen.

There's no obligation to join the euro. Member states that haven't yet adopted the euro are described as member states with a derogation. That derogation can only be waived if they meet certain criteria. One of those is membership of the Exchange Rate Mechanism, ERM-II.

But membership of ERM-II isn't compulsory.

In fact, the only current member of ERM-II is Denmark, which has an opt-out from adopting the euro.

Sweden has spent over 20 years outside ERM-II, and therefore can't adopt the euro.

There is no way of using EU law to compel Sweden, or any non-euro member state, to join ERM-II.

Sweden has made it abundantly clear that it has no intention of adopting the euro, not least because a referendum in 2003 rejected that option.

It has never faced any sanctions, legal or political, because there are none that the EU could impose.

RobMc59

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

What % of Scottish catch is landed in foreign ports by foreign owned and crewed boats that are nominally British ?


How come the Faroese can fish in Scottish waters but not visa-versa when fish exports to the UK account for a third of the Faroese economy ?



Quota transfers and trawler re-registering is easy.
A 4.8m dingy holds nearly a fifth of all fishing rights for the South West of England. Better still since it doesn't actually fish it can't have it's licence frozen for an infraction.





Local fishermen only get a tiny share of that tiny slice of the economy




Fishing was sold off to big business, that ship has sailed.

I don`t know how access to the UK fishing grounds will pan out after December and the usual dismissive tack can be taken but I`ll be very surprised if the UK lets itself be pushed around over UK territory-I think you underestimate the UK attitude to protecting it`s maritime interests and what it sees as belonging to the UK.

sondagefaux

RobMc59 wrote: »

I don`t know how access to the UK fishing grounds will pan out after December and the usual dismissive tack can be taken but I`ll be very surprised if the UK lets itself be pushed around over UK territory-I think you underestimate the UK attitude to protecting it`s maritime interests and what it sees as belonging to the UK.

I'm pretty sure the UK thinks Northern Ireland is part of the UK...

Capt'n Midnight

RobMc59 wrote: »

I don`t know how access to the UK fishing grounds will pan out after December and the usual dismissive tack can be taken but I`ll be very surprised if the UK lets itself be pushed around over UK territory-I think you underestimate the UK attitude to protecting it`s maritime interests and what it sees as belonging to the UK.

The UK already capitulated to the Faroe Islands who are their 114th-largest trading partner.

113 countries will be filling that one away for their negotiations.

A Dub in Glasgo

RobMc59 wrote: »

You're assuming that Scotland will vote to leave the UK.Their fishermen are much more protective of the fishing grounds around Scotland than the rest of the UK and that alone could a showstopper imo. Its common knowledge here in the UK that the EU are salivating over the UK fishing grounds.

Apart from some rich families, the fishing argument rarely registers in the parts of Scotland that is populous. It is very much a minor industry but has managed to hog the limelight to the detriment of much more important industries

Strazdas

An ominous sounding article in tomorrow's Telegraph :

Boris Johnson is preparing to tear up part of the Brexit deal as he sets out his "red lines" for a trade agreement with the European Union on Thursday.

The Prime Minister has made it clear that he will not be bound by the political declaration attached to the EU Withdrawal Agreement, which sets out the ground rules for a trade deal.

Downing Street sources said the rules of engagement agreed by Mr Johnson last year had been superseded by promises made in the Tory manifesto on which he was elected in December.

The Prime Minister believes he is within his rights to go back on previous agreements covering areas including borders, fishing rights and state aid.


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/02/26/boris-johnson-set-ditch-political-declaration-agreements-eu/


No reason to believe this is false....the paper seem to be aware of what he will say in a speech

Professor Moriarty

Strazdas wrote: »

An ominous sounding article in tomorrow's Telegraph :

Boris Johnson is preparing to tear up part of the Brexit deal as he sets out his "red lines" for a trade agreement with the European Union on Thursday.

The Prime Minister has made it clear that he will not be bound by the political declaration attached to the EU Withdrawal Agreement, which sets out the ground rules for a trade deal.

Downing Street sources said the rules of engagement agreed by Mr Johnson last year had been superseded by promises made in the Tory manifesto on which he was elected in December.

The Prime Minister believes he is within his rights to go back on previous agreements covering areas including borders, fishing rights and state aid.


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/02/26/boris-johnson-set-ditch-political-declaration-agreements-eu/


No reason to believe this is false....the paper seem to be aware of what he will say in a speech

I wonder what his "friends and partners" in the EU will make of it if he does tear it up. It's either just another 'madman' bluff and bluster ploy or he is actually a hard right glove puppet. We'll find out soon enough

Frank Bullitt

Strazdas wrote: »

An ominous sounding article in tomorrow's Telegraph :

Boris Johnson is preparing to tear up part of the Brexit deal as he sets out his "red lines" for a trade agreement with the European Union on Thursday.

The Prime Minister has made it clear that he will not be bound by the political declaration attached to the EU Withdrawal Agreement, which sets out the ground rules for a trade deal.

Downing Street sources said the rules of engagement agreed by Mr Johnson last year had been superseded by promises made in the Tory manifesto on which he was elected in December.

The Prime Minister believes he is within his rights to go back on previous agreements covering areas including borders, fishing rights and state aid.


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/02/26/boris-johnson-set-ditch-political-declaration-agreements-eu/


No reason to believe this is false....the paper seem to be aware of what he will say in a speech

If people thought Brexit was done, you are about to see the real show in action. The negotiations were always going to be the best part of it, and also the worst.

BonnieSituation

Bit cynical wrote: »

I think it is important not to get hung up on forms of words. I have never suggested at any point that we are not full members of the EU or in any way separate from it.

It's very important to get hung up on the meanings/definitions/forms of words when you completely ignore same

Literally in your next post...

Bit cynical wrote: »

I think it is probably more accurate to say that the CTA is tolerated by the EU and will probably continue to be tolerated even with the UK gone.

As to what the EU "likes", that is a different matter but maximizing the extent of Schengen is something the EU engages in. New members, for example, are required to work towards joining it as part of their accession treaty. It is similar to the Eurozone in this respect.

How do you not understand, even at this stage of the process, where Ireland and the EU align?

Strazdas

Gintonious wrote: »

If people thought Brexit was done, you are about to see the real show in action. The negotiations were always going to be the best part of it, and also the worst.

At this rate, there won't even be any negotiations.

Xertz

Whatever about differences of position, there’s an expectation of negotiations being conducted in good faith and that is not what’s happening.

It’s lies, spin and bluster. While that might wash with a tabloid audience and with an aspect of the electorate, this is a negotiation with other countries and is largely going to be technical and detail focused.

I really think there’s a limit to how far this can go without a total disaster as it really is impossible to negotiate with a party who finds facts and honesty challenging and spends their time trying to double cross.

It’s not something that’s conducive to any kind of negotiation with anyone, be it the EU, the US, Japan, China, WTO members etc etc

Bluffing and tricking something like the EU into a one sided trade deal is frankly an impossibility. It’s just not going to happen and trying to engage like that is a road to the negotiation being politely ended.

Bit cynical

Strazdas wrote: »

At this rate, there won't even be any negotiations.

Of course there will be negotiations. The UK wants a Canada style deal and the EU have previously said that such a deal is possible.

McGiver

Xertz wrote:

Bluffing and tricking something like the EU into a one sided trade deal is frankly an impossibility. It’s just not going to happen and trying to engage like that is a road to the negotiation being politely ended.

I'd say if they try any such tricks, put the negotiation on hold. EU isn't under time pressure. Think it's time to drop the gloves on the EU side. We've been too forthcoming and accommodating. You can't negotiate with clownish fascists who are willing to renege on an international treaty. That's a Russian style. Just stop the negotiations.

Xertz

I think that’s likely - the EU can wait and wait. There’s no rush and it’s far better to get something like this some right than done quick.

Realistically a comprehensive trade deal could take a decade. That’s how long CETA took.

The UK is the party changing everything and in the big rush to sign off on trade deals. That also applies to everything else too. The UK already caused a MAJOR diplomatic incident by trying to rush Japan into something by sending a rather presumptuous letter during negotiations and were quite rightly put back in their box by the Japanese side.

Also if they think they’ll waltz in and sign a simple trade deal on UK terms with the US, they’re in for a very rude awakening too. That’s going to be quite a long process unless the UK is happy with being screwed over by Trump, a guy who prides himself on getting the most agressive deals. He’s just going to smell weakness and potential for a very advantageous arrangement, for the US.

Nobody’s in any rush here except the UK and also no nobody owes them a free lunch either.

Professor Moriarty

Bit cynical wrote: »

Of course there will be negotiations. The UK wants a Canada style deal and the EU have previously said that such a deal is possible.

Two days ago, Barnier said that the UK could not have a Canada style deal.

McGiver

Xertz wrote:

Realistically a comprehensive trade deal could take a decade. That’s how long CETA took.

In fairness to the English folks - a EU-UK FTA with close alignment etc should be much faster as UK is in a regulatory alignment and highly integrated with the EU.

Canada is geographically distant, has completely different legal, business etc framework so align that and going sector by sector isn't easy.

But I'd still think we're talking few years for UK to be negotiate. Now, the trouble is UK is saying that they don't want regulatory alignment which is potentially unworkable as they would be de-integrating themselves from a highly integrated position to a less integrated one along with regulatory divergence. That's never been done and I think it's actually impossible. Deintegration of RoI from the UK after 1922 was somewhat similar but that's a completely different scale of economies. And it took... 98 years and it's ongoing.

reslfj

Bit cynical wrote: »

Of course there will be negotiations. The UK wants a Canada style deal and the EU have previously said that such a deal is possible.

Possible within some TM/UK red lines. But it was never possible without some large and very significant additional commitments from the UK.

Fish has been mentioned from very early on, and the CFP (under a new name) an absolute demand from the EU side.
The LPF has always been a EU requirement, sometimes under other names like same standards, same rights for workers, etc etc.

But for the UK it will be accept LPF and fish and ... or go kill yourself (more diplomatically expressed by Michel Barnier, but effectively the same).

No farm export, no auto industry and a very hard hit fishing sector will be the result of WTO MFN rules and even of a simplistic FTA.

Adding the loss of much financial service business in/to EU27 member states plus reduction of export of other services - and the UK will not be much fun to live in.

Lars

Xertz

Canada and the EU have far more similar political outlooks in many respects than the Tories and the EU.

The Canadians and EU also entered discussions with a positive outlook and no hostilities and negotiated in absolute good faith with a shared vision of what the outcome might be like.

The UK is basically openly hostile to the EU, behaves irrationally and negotiates in bad faith. So I’m not really sure that ten years is an unreasonable estimate.

The fact that the UK has regulatory alignment should make it easier but the Tories see those alignments as something to be torn up and destroyed and not as any kind of asset. The goalposts have also shifted from an early Brexit that seemed to be more like the EEA type arrangement to burning all the bridges. So it’s far from the days of the world’s easiest trade deal.

If the EU wants the UK to actually follow the Withdrawal Agreement, the cost of not doing so should be absolutely devastating. Sanctions and embargoes, and in the event of a hard border in Ireland, sanctions on any country the UK makes a deal with. No Deal should look amazing in comparison.

Christy42

Bit cynical wrote: »

Of course there will be negotiations. The UK wants a Canada style deal and the EU have previously said that such a deal is possible.

Is it anymore? Can we give them anything since we know they negotiated in bad faith last year. A lot of is still not in effect and they are already going back on their word. We need to know they will honour any deal before there is any point in negotiations.

RobMc59

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

The UK already capitulated to the Faroe Islands who are their 114th-largest trading partner.

113 countries will be filling that one away for their negotiations.

I'm totally against brexit,I intensely dislike and distrust the current UK government.I truely believe the UK should willing align with EU standards now brexit is going to happen.
Apart from that though,I'm British-I want the UK to remain united and hopefully come through this relatively unscathed-that may differ from the general consensus of the majority of posters on this thread and I accept that which is why I stuck around whilst the majority of British posters gave up.
I believe the UK will negotiate with the EU about things like fishing access but I'll be very surprised if the UK allows itself to be pushed around by the EU over that-its not about bean counting its about sticking up for themselves in the impending negotiations.

Xertz

I’m not sure why there is so much focus on fishing in the UK. It’s 0.0006% of GDP and employs around 0.01% of the UK workforce. (The GDP % goes up to as high as 0.5% if you exclude various aspects of GDP but it’s tiny overall).

Farming, while a lot bigger, is similarly is not a significant aspect of the British economy and the UK population can or be fed without imports and that’s been a reality for a very long time (since at least the early 19th century). Yet, you’ve people going on about how it’ll all run somehow on lovely new organic British farming. If they tried that, people would quite literally starve. No amount of imagination, patriotism or spin changes the fact that the arable land mass and climate in the UK simply do not produce the volume or food it consumes and never will.

To me the media and political obsession with an obscure industry like fishing, that’s almost entirely irrelevant to the health of the British economy, shows how distorted, illogical and idiotic this debate actually is.

They’ve also been fixated on discussions of flows of goods, when the majority of their economy is actually services and they’re not even being discussed properly.

Imagining that you’ve an entirely different economy to reality is not only pointless but it’s downright dangerous as it shows that the political leadership in the UK has absolutely no grasp whatsoever of the structure of the UK economy. The fact that Johnson actually said “f—- business" sums it up.

It’s no longer a proud nation of shopkeepers. It’s land of deluded fantasists who will not address facts.

A country can’t be run on lies. See: The Emperor’s New Clothes for a sense of where that goes!

I’m really concerned for the UK as this stuff could go really horribly wrong and it will hurt the most vulnerable very badly if it does.