Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

sondagefaux

sondagefaux wrote: »

There have been w*nker banker types predicting the collapse of the euro around the place for years.

There is a sector of the financial community that has been trying to crash the Euro for years, in the early 2000s the Euro was valued at less than the US dollar. ECB were forced to prop it up for a while, the same type of financiers who made a killing when they knocked the pound out of the ERM a decade earlier.

An Ciarraioch

Deleted User wrote: »

Ireland shares many of the aspirations that the UK has as well.

Begs the question, which is it for many Irish, Boston or Berlin?
Brexit seems to have brought out many of the Berliners, but what about the US leaning people?

In terms of our socioeconomic choices (public services versus tax cuts) and political priorities, such as investment in a public health system, we're certainly much ideologically closer to Europe than the US, also the US has become much more socially conservative than Ireland over the last decade, particularly over moral, cultural and religious issues.

Imreoir2

Bit cynical wrote: »

The issue of geographical proximity is new.

Clearly you have not been paying attention. It is not new at all.

listermint

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Ireland shares many of the aspirations that the UK has as well.

Begs the question, which is it for many Irish, Boston or Berlin?
Brexit seems to have brought out many of the Berliners, but what about the US leaning people?

They don't exist.

The only us leaning people are the odd looper inhabiting trump like threads or hermann style propaganda piece mouths.

Anyone you talk to in Ireland would not like Ireland to be more like the US or reliant on it. It's like glass.

sondagefaux

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Clearly you have not been paying attention. It is not new at all.

It was discussed by the EU's Article 50 Taskforce (TF50) as early as January 2018 at least.

A slide presentation connecting the EU's desire for Level Playing Field (LPF) provisions to both the intensity of EU-UK trade and the UK's geographical proximity to the EU was published on the EU's TF50 public web pages on 31st January 2018, after a meeting which discussed this issue on 25th January 2018.





https://ec.europa.eu/commission/publications/slides-level-playing-field_en

sondagefaux

Deleted User wrote: »

Ireland shares many of the aspirations that the UK has as well.

Begs the question, which is it for many Irish, Boston or Berlin?
Brexit seems to have brought out many of the Berliners, but what about the US leaning people?

What about them?

Look at how Ireland actually works, how much closer its social and economic models are to European models than to US models, and how much closer they've been gradually getting for decades, and you'll see that Irish people who want to be closer to the US model have little or no influence on how Ireland actually works.

sondagefaux

Gintonious wrote: »

https://twitter.com/Emmabarnett/status/1233059690755641344

The control over not saying "No Deal" is going to be tiring. Fair play to Barnett for going after her on this.

Is the Noel Edmonds show, Deal or Non-Negotiated Australia-Style Deal still on TV?

sondagefaux

Bit cynical wrote: »

But this reference to the UK's proximity only came about when the UK called their bluff and said that they would opt for such a deal.

Nope. The EU tied the need for LPF provisions to the UK's geographical position in January 2018.





This presentation was published by the EU's Article 50 taskforce on its public web pages on 31st January 2018.

No doubt the crack UK negotiators have been aware of it ever since...

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/publications/slides-level-playing-field_en

Enzokk

Hermy wrote: »

Just supposing instead it's Sanders how would that play out?

Not sure as I don't know what his policies would be on trade. From quick reading it seems that he is in favour of deal that protect American jobs but also he talks about strong standards being enshrined in trade agreements on labour, the environment and human rights. What those high standards are, I guess we will have to wait and see.

It could be that even with a new president it is more of the same as the same industries will still lobby politicians to get their way, no matter who is in charge. But Sanders did talk about the need for countries to come together to stop the wars of the past, especially in Europe just after the Brexit result so it seems (my assumption) that he has a better grasp of the purpose of the EU than either Trump or the current UK Government.

Leroy42

And still no actual published assessments of what as this is going to cost or what the proposed outcome is.

The UK have decided that sovereignty is worth losing trade for, without being able to say how much lost trade is worth, what the extra costs are and what the impact will be across the country.

And yet the UK populace seem happy to simply keep walking in the darkness. Maybe its not the light at the of a tunnel, but a train!

Leroy42

Hermy wrote: »

Just supposing instead it's Sanders how would that play out?

Whilst POTUS clearly puts trade, and 'winning', ahead of all other considerations, any POTUS will be focused on getting the best deal for the US, just as any PM would be for UK.

The real issue is not really who is in the WH, but what situation the UK finds itself when in the negotiations. Being desperate for any deal, both in terms of industry but also politically, means the US would be in an even stronger position that they would be in any case.

Peregrinus

sondagefaux wrote: »

What about them?

Look at how Ireland actually works, how much closer its social and economic models are to European models than to US models, and how much closer they've been gradually getting for decades, and you'll see that Irish people who want to be closer to the US model have little or no influence on how Ireland actually works.

On the contrary, I think they have quite signficant influence. But they recognise that their Bostonian policies work best for Ireland while Ireland is in the EU.

BonnieSituation

Gintonious wrote: »

https://twitter.com/Emmabarnett/status/1233059690755641344

The control over not saying "No Deal" is going to be tiring. Fair play to Barnett for going after her on this.

It's not surprising and yet... It's still jaw dropping when you hear it.

I can't wait for June.

BonnieSituation

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Ireland shares many of the aspirations that the UK has as well.

Begs the question, which is it for many Irish, Boston or Berlin?
Brexit seems to have brought out many of the Berliners, but what about the US leaning people?

What aspirations are they?

Boston or Berlin? Is the ghost of the PDs about to rear its head again?

Zubeneschamali

Deleted User wrote: »

Brexit seems to have brought out many of the Berliners, but what about the US leaning people?

When Obama was President (or especially just after he was elected) there was hope that the US would move closer to a European model.

But under Trump, it is clearly moving away to the right. I hear very little pro-US chatter, and some stuff I never heard under Obama, like people saying they will not even visit the US unless sanity returns.

Infini

kowloon wrote: »

Deleted post.

Were on the verge of the Triple Picard Facepalm at this rate!

I mean they want to basically walk with no deal whatsoever theyre idiots and everyone knows it thats why they dont need to back down with the Divided Kingdom as they take the worst of it and itll be all because of Bollox Johnson and friends not the EU.

Xertz

The problem with the Boston or Berlin analogy is that it’s from almost 20 years ago at this stage and so much has changed.

Boston isn’t even representative of where the US has drifted to under Trump and it may well be far closer to Berlin, Brussels or perhaps Ottawa than it is to Washington DC in terms of how Massachusetts politics sits.

We haven’t become any less close to Boston, rather other parts of the US have dragged DC way off to a rather bonkers part of the right.

We’re probably very close to London, Manchester, Liverpool and Scotland too but very far from many of the hard Brexit parts of England.

Those kinds of phrases become meaningless and I really don’t think they are particularly useful in the bizarre politics of 2020s of the US or UK.

In terms of Ireland’s relationship with the EU, we’ve a lot more in common with a lot of our Northern European neighbours than some would have you believe, including things like proportional democracy and a tendency to be aspiring towards social democratic type policies.

I don’t think that diminishes our relationship with the US, which let’s face it is largely one with the more progressive coastal states, or with the UK where we’ve really never related to Tory style politics, but we do have a good relationship with pragmatic and progressive British politics, and that’s strongly developed since the 1990s.

Countries change and political systems based on a left right dichotomy oscillate back and forth. I wouldn’t fret too much about not being closer to Trump or Johnson. Give it a decade and they’ll be bad memories.

Larbre34

John Bercow made a pertinent point on Tubridys show this morning. This kind of behaviour doesn't just show bad faith with the EU, but Boris needs to be able to conclude bilateral deals with a whole heap of other Countries at the same time due to the ending of Britain's EU trade umbrella on the same date. If these Countries saw Britain as having a weak position before, they'll now also shape up to engage with a charlatan.

Not a positive prospect for British exporters just now.

sondagefaux

Not looking too good for British importers either.

sondagefaux

sondagefaux wrote: »

Not looking too good for British importers either.

Not really, as an importer it is possible that they just don't inspect the goods arriving until they have sufficient staff to get the job done.
Why shoot themselves in the foot unnecessarily by trying to check it all, just concentrate on the stuff from dubious exporters.

johnnyskeleton

Deleted User wrote: »

Ireland shares many of the aspirations that the UK has as well.

Begs the question, which is it for many Irish, Boston or Berlin?
Brexit seems to have brought out many of the Berliners, but what about the US leaning people?

Here's how I see it - the UK and Ireland have been fishing in the same pond for the last 30 years or so. Both are marketing themselves as having a close relationship with the US while being in the EU. It's a sort of best of both worlds kinda approach.

Crucially, it is clear that any country that can position itself as the gateway between two blocks will do really well. Singapore, Hong Kong etc all thrive on being a little bit Western and a little bit Asian.

The UK is by some metrics the largest tax haven or facilitator of tax havens in the world, by far. It is also an incredibly lax regulation country by EU standards. The rest of their economy is basically a basket case. Up till now they have managed to spin the narrative that Ireland is the basket case that is propped up by FDI and is a big part of international tax havens, which to be fair we are, but amazingly they have done this in a way that completely deflects attention away from them.

So for the last 30 years or so, Ireland has basically been the poor man's UK. A sort of secondary bridge across the Atlantic. With the UK gone, Ireland has to position itself as being the closest part of the EU to the US. That is the only play in town.

So in terms of the question are we Boston or Berlin, the answer has to be we have to both, and even more so than we are now. The US leaning people can't object to us courting more US business than ever before, or becoming the new "special relationship", and the EU will tolerate us becoming that as they need to maintain friendly relations with the US as much as anyone.

sondagefaux

Deleted User wrote: »

Not really, as an importer it is possible that they just don't inspect the goods arriving until they have sufficient staff to get the job done.
Why shoot themselves in the foot unnecessarily by trying to check it all, just concentrate on the stuff from dubious exporters.

How do you know who the dubious exporters to the UK are unless you have some intel?

And how do you know which vehicles contain the dubious products unless you inspect them?

And what do you do when the first person dies because some dodgy food got through?

Blame it on the EU?

CelticRambler

Deleted User wrote: »

as an importer it is possible that they just don't inspect the goods arriving until they have sufficient staff to get the job done.
Why shoot themselves in the foot unnecessarily by trying to check it all, just concentrate on the stuff from dubious exporters.

Do you think the EU will happily sign off on rules-of-origin for anything carrying the Made in Britain label if everyone knows that their borders are completely porous?

Without effective and reliable checks, GB will become a smuggler's paradise ... which I suppose would be a reasonable extension of its tax-haven activity. :rolleyes:

kowloon

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

So in terms of the question are we Boston or Berlin, the answer has to be we have to both, and even more so than we are now. The US leaning people can't object to us courting more US business than ever before, or becoming the new "special relationship", and the EU will tolerate us becoming that as they need to maintain friendly relations with the US as much as anyone.

I can see that US-UK special relationship being dashed against the rocks pretty swiftly when it comes down to trade talks and the US, rightfully, does what's best for the US. That's even without those two BS artists running the show.

ancapailldorcha

kowloon wrote: »

I can see that US-UK special relationship being dashed against the rocks pretty swiftly when it comes down to trade talks and the US, rightfully, does what's best for the US. That's even without those two BS artists running the show.

A trade deal is not in the president's gift to give. Members of Congress, particularly those from mainly rural states are going be listening to the farmers' groups and are going to prioritise their real concerns over the British obsession with the nebulous concept of a special relationship.

CelticRambler

CelticRambler wrote: »

Do you think the EU will happily sign off on rules-of-origin for anything carrying the Made in Britain label if everyone knows that their borders are completely porous?

Without effective and reliable checks, GB will become a smuggler's paradise ... which I suppose would be a reasonable extension of its tax-haven activity. :rolleyes:

You have it backwards, this is about the UK importing from the EU.

kowloon

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

A trade deal is not in the president's gift to give. Members of Congress, particularly those from mainly rural states are going be listening to the farmers' groups and are going to prioritise their real concerns over the British obsession with the nebulous concept of a special relationship.

I get that congress holds the purse strings, and that the US will act in their own interest, but the relationship between the nations will only be burnt further by two populists hitting the Twittersphere and doing what they do best.

Nody

Deleted User wrote: »

You have it backwards, this is about the UK importing from the EU.

Let me introduce you to the two things that makes that fail; first of all WTO Most Favored clause which requires all WTO countries to be treated equally. Hence no checks from EU means no checks from Russia, China etc. Now you may counter as some stooges in the UK did that "WTO is dysfunctional anyway so it will take a decade before it's an issue" except that goes both ways and China has a very long memory. So block Chinese goods by inspection? Why suddenly every UK business starts getting visits from various departments and certificates pulled in.

Second; and this one is more serious for the UK; immigration. Know those immigration camps at Calais? Well guess how popular they will become when suddenly there are no checks on inbound trucks due to not enough inspectors around and when French police turns a blind eye to it (UK is not in EU anymore so who cares if they should register in their first country; simply refuse to take any back)...

ancapailldorcha

kowloon wrote: »

I get that congress holds the purse strings, and that the US will act in their own interest, but the relationship between the nations will only be burnt further by two populists hitting the Twittersphere and doing what they do best.

Time will tell on this front. While Johnson can largely operate as he sees fit, the US president can not. On top of this, he is fighting an election this year that he is not guaranteed to win.

listermint

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Not really, as an importer it is possible that they just don't inspect the goods arriving until they have sufficient staff to get the job done.
Why shoot themselves in the foot unnecessarily by trying to check it all, just concentrate on the stuff from dubious exporters.

With over 50% of their food imported your plan with have it rotting in storage.


Sometimes I can't tell if you are being serious or..