Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

serfboard

Good discussion on BBC Radio 4's "World Tonight" programme last night (podcast available).

On it were Dmitry Grozoubinski (who is often quoted here), and a journalist from The Times.

Both reckon that, as everyone on here knows, that all the stuff coming from Downing St. is posturing and for a domestic audience. The Times journalist reckons that Boris will go so far as to "walk away" at the end of June, knowing that nothing much happens in Brussels in July and August anyway, only to return in triumph in September as the EU "caves".

Apparently the language used refers to something like the "contours" of a deal by the end of the year - something that they reckoned could be interpreted any way at all.

The only negative they saw was that Dmitry said that you have to be careful with your bluster - take it too far, and it becomes a hill you have to die on. Dial it back a bit, and it is easier to modify your position.

Xertz

It's very hard to call, but the EU will have to take them at their word and if they do walk away, it could well set a sequence of events in motion that leads to a major markets or economic problem, for the UK and beyond.

Apart from all of that, it's also causing insufferable levels of instability for business and I think many organisations will have reached the end of their patience.

There's only so much benefit of the doubt that can be given. There comes a point where people will begin to cut their losses and that's disastrous for the UK economy no matter how you look at it.

I've already seen strategic business reports, looking at FDI destinations that are citing the UK as being politically unstable.

There is a limit to how much of this game playing can really be tolerated and it's not even about politics, but just simply about protecting businesses from risk.

ancapailldorcha

Xertz wrote: »

It's very hard to call, but the EU will have to take them at their word and if they do walk away, it could well set a sequence of events in motion that leads to a major markets or economic problem, for the UK and beyond.

I don't think it is. As far as I can tell, the one thing the British have achieved to date with their negotiating practices, such as they are is to justify the use of the slur "Perfidious Albion".

The British negotiated the backstop as part of the WA and then voted it down three times in their Parliament. Johnson abandons the commitment he made to the DUP's 2018 conference and consents to a border in the Irish sea and now noises are being made about trying to find loopholes.

The EU is not nearly so stupid as to just take someone with Johnson's history at their word. The three main issues have been settled with the WA. If the UK reneges on that, they'll destroy what remains of their status as a moderate power in the world.

Xertz

I mean the problem is that the EU will take them at their word quite literally and if they then didn't mean what they said they meant, and it was all a bluff, it will be far too late as the mechanisms will be in motion.

The EU isn't stupid, but it is rather more legalistic and procedure based. A big fat lie can end up being something you're held to.

The UK's credibility may be destroyed by Johnsonian politics, but it may also end up causing them no end of headaches as some of those procedures and processes are irrevocable, or close to anyway, when they are put in train.

"Oh, what a tangled web we weave;
When first we practise to deceive!"

ancapailldorcha

The EU is an experienced negotiator of trade deals. The agreements with Japan and Canada took nearly a decade to negotiate and ratify and neither of those countries ever threatened to starve an EU member or compare it to the USSR.

Leroy42

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

The EU is an experienced negotiator of trade deals. The agreements with Japan and Canada took nearly a decade to negotiate and ratify and neither of those countries ever threatened to starve an EU member or compare it to the USSR.

And the key difference, one that is being ignored by all those calling for a Canada deal, is that those deals (Canada, Japan, Korea, Switzerland etc) are all done on the basis of it being a means to greater relationship. Increased trade, increased standardisation.

Brexit is the complete opposite of that. The UK are on a path that whatever is achieved at the start of the deal is the best the EU is going to get, and things will continue to diverge from that point.

So taking Canada as an example, there is no need to drive for ECJ based standards now as 1) the type of trade is different and 2) the idea is that as trade grows the desire to align standards will grow. Which is what happened within the EU itself.

johnnyskeleton

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

The EU is an experienced negotiator of trade deals. The agreements with Japan and Canada took nearly a decade to negotiate and ratify and neither of those countries ever threatened to starve an EU member or compare it to the USSR.

I wonder when the EU was trying to get a trade deal with Canada, who are noted for their politeness and manners, did they approach the negotiations politely and with good manners? Or with Japan, where respect and integrity are essential to getting business done, they showed respect and proved their integrity?

I say this because the UK will soon have to negotiate with both Canada and Japan and, well......

Xertz

The UK already put its foot in it with Japan back in 2019.

https://www.ft.com/content/9cd62bde-32ba-11e9-bd3a-8b2a211d90d5

While things are back on track, it was a fairly strong illustration of their lack of tact and I would also suspect that the fact they’ve basically led Nissan and Honda up the garden path, promising regulatory alignment etc, hasn’t helped either.

It’s all spin and waffle.

An Ciarraioch

The EU launches a biometric residency document, which will facilitate British nationals in applying for citizens' rights:

https://www.politico.eu/article/brits-in-the-eu-common-residence-card-biometric-residence-documen/

Much like "settled status" in the UK, it'll be redundant for UK citizens living in Ireland, as they already have virtually identical rights to anyone who is Irish-born.

Call me Al

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

I wonder when the EU was trying to get a trade deal with Canada, who are noted for their politeness and manners, did they approach the negotiations politely and with good manners? Or with Japan, where respect and integrity are essential to getting business done, they showed respect and proved their integrity?

I say this because the UK will soon have to negotiate with both Canada and Japan and, well......

A certain cohort of voters in the UK seem to relish the role of being "bloody difficult" with those they regard as contrary to their needs, or at least talking about themselves in that way.
You'd be forgiven for thinking the UK government believe there is no traction or leverage in some much-needed diplomacy or something, because it doesn't play well domestically.

Those rousers wont rabble themselves doncha'know!

CelticRambler

Deleted User wrote: »

You have it backwards, this is about the UK importing from the EU.

And you seem to be overlooking the fact that UK importers are not exclusively end-user consumers of what they import. Up to now, much of what is imported is incorporated into something "British" and re-exported to another EU country to be incorporated into yet another something.

If GB abandons effective controls on its imports, then all of those component parts will fail the "rules of origin" test for just about every trade partner. And there goes another sector of British industry.

black forest

One can’t really make it up. The UK on a crusade against itself.


https://twitter.com/iandunt/status/1233393985613451265?s=21


Full article

"Participating in a court that applies EU law and bound by the European Court of Justice is inconsistent with our aims of becoming an independent self-governing nation," the PM's office said. They had to be approached to find out. There was no official statement.

But, but...

Ian Dunt:This is such a tiny thing, such an inconsequential detail, as to be beyond comprehension. The European Court of Justice wouldn't decide cases. It would simply be asked to make rulings on matters of EU law. But even that apparently is too much. 'That's not Brexit', or whatever word it is we're supposed to use for Brexit now that MPs have been told never to utter it.

This is not a Europhobia anymore but a full grown Paranoia. Where will this end? Who can take these guys serious anymore? Leaves me really baffled.

An Ciarraioch

Admittedly a backlog of citizenship applications to be processed since the recent court case explains the larger than usual ceremony, but almost 1,000 naturalisations of UK citizens must be a record at a single time:

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/5-000-people-from-135-countries-to-become-irish-citizens-next-week-1.4187253?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Nody

black forest wrote: »

One can’t really make it up. The UK on a crusade against itself.

I think you missed to qoute one of the best parts:

What he could confirm is that the UK is going to have to employ up to 50,000 people for customs checks. It is extraordinary. We are eradicating growth where we could have been world leaders, only to replace it with growth in an area dedicated to demolishing our own trading networks. As the FT calculated, that's "four times more people to fill in customs forms than the 12,000 people working as fishermen in the UK - the industry that is supposedly one of the big beneficiaries of Brexit". Actual madness, on an industrial scale.

Huge win for UK here, clearly. Only need to have them all in place by Jan 1st 2021. Of course; let's compare that to how the bloated overstaffed EU are doing. Oh, only 48.100 people total for 27 countries... But bloated administration in EU and mumble mumble mumble...

And this just about sums it up; it's popcorn time people:

That's two simultaneous talks in which Britain is by far the junior partner, against seasoned negotiators, operating under an impossible time frame, with a ministerial team selected for cattle-like obedience, a leadership strategy based on deception, and no basic grounding in empirical reality or the consequences of our actions.

Sam Russell

Apparently the UK Gov will need 50,000 people to do the customs work post transition. That will cos between GB£2.5 billion and GB£5 billion. [To employ someone costs between GB£50,000 and GB£100,000 if wages, pension and office space].

How much were they going to save by leaving the EU?

I am not sure if this cost will include the cost to British firms doing the customs paperwork. I doubt it.

RobMc59

Sam Russell wrote: »

Apparently the UK Gov will need 50,000 people to do the customs work post transition. That will cos between GB£2.5 billion and GB£5 billion. [To employ someone costs between GB£50,000 and GB£100,000 if wages, pension and office space].

How much were they going to save by leaving the EU?

I am not sure if this cost will include the cost to British firms doing the customs paperwork. I doubt it.

Is`nt creating 50,000 more jobs a good thing?

Sam Russell

RobMc59 wrote: »

Is`nt creating 50,000 more jobs a good thing?

If they are wealth creating, then yes. These are more public servants doing work that is counter-productive, creating further costs for others.

No, it is not a good thing.

Igotadose

RobMc59 wrote: »

Isn't creating 50,000 more jobs a good thing?

Not if they're paper shuffling jobs.

This is something I've seen in my totally non-scientific watching of British game shows as a view into the UK economy. There's no one 'producing' things in their jobs - no farmers, no one in manufacturing, lots of administrative assistants and volunteers/retirees/etc. No one working for a multinational, no one in IT. Just 'mcJobs.' And boodles of government employees, of which these new customs inspectors would be. You have to produce something for growth to happen.

ancapailldorcha

RobMc59 wrote: »

Is`nt creating 50,000 more jobs a good thing?

Not when they're bullsh*t jobs invented as a result of the Conservative party's stupidity the cost of which will be borne entirely by the taxpayer and will likely accompany a loss of investment as more and more firms consider their future here.

ITDept

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Admittedly a backlog of citizenship applications to be processed since the recent court case explains the larger than usual ceremony, but almost 1,000 naturalisations of UK citizens must be a record at a single time:

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/5-000-people-from-135-countries-to-become-irish-citizens-next-week-1.4187253?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

I'll be one of those 982. My feelings are about as mixed as possible. On the one hand I'm delighted and very grateful to be officially Irish having lived here for 2 decades and having a beautiful Irish family. On the other hand I really am sickened by Brexit and the mentality that goes with it.

It probably seems bizarre to say to Irish people, given our long and often terrible relationship with each other, but England to me has always been the safe haven or a beacon of hope. Gay, straight, black, brown, white, religious, atheist - none of it used to matter. Come to England and build a better life for yourself in the relative safety offered there.

These days everything has turned sour. Immigrants and refugees are deeply unwelcome. There's no reasoned debate anymore, just shouty ignorance. It's an utter disaster.

Tears of joy and of despair.

Strazdas

ITDept wrote: »

I'll be one of those 982. My feelings are about as mixed as possible. On the one hand I'm delighted and very grateful to be officially Irish having lived here for 2 decades and having a beautiful Irish family. On the other hand I really am sickened by Brexit and the mentality that goes with it.

It probably seems bizarre to say to Irish people, given our long and often terrible relationship with each other, but England to me has always been the safe haven or a beacon of hope. Gay, straight, black, brown, white, religious, atheist - none of it used to matter. Come to England and build a better life for yourself in the relative safety offered there.

These days everything has turned sour. Immigrants and refugees are deeply unwelcome. There's no reasoned debate anymore, just shouty ignorance. It's an utter disaster.

Tears of joy and of despair.

Your former country has been hijacked somewhat, alas. There are many, many decent people in England (the majority no doubt) but the bigots and xenophobes have been elevated to a lofty position thanks to that godforsaken sham of a referendum.

boggerman1

Sam Russell wrote: »

Apparently the UK Gov will need 50,000 people to do the customs work post transition. That will cos between GB£2.5 billion and GB£5 billion. [To employ someone costs between GB£50,000 and GB£100,000 if wages, pension and office space].

How much were they going to save by leaving the EU?

I am not sure if this cost will include the cost to British firms doing the customs paperwork. I doubt it.

#taking back control.was listening to a lad on lbc today who is one of the 17.4 million who voted for this.he didn’t get the big deal about customs.sure according to him only slightly more than 1,000 trucks entered/exited the Uk daily.something like 8,000 come in tru Dover alone per day.no sympathy for them

Frank Bullitt

Sam Russell wrote: »

Apparently the UK Gov will need 50,000 people to do the customs work post transition. That will cos between GB£2.5 billion and GB£5 billion. [To employ someone costs between GB£50,000 and GB£100,000 if wages, pension and office space].

How much were they going to save by leaving the EU?

I am not sure if this cost will include the cost to British firms doing the customs paperwork. I doubt it.

So on this, 50,000 staff is more than the entire EU civil service.

Strazdas

Gintonious wrote: »

So on this, 50,000 staff is more than the entire EU civil service.

Those are insane numbers. There are only 120,000 police officers in the whole of the UK and they would have been recruited and trained over a 25-30 year period, not in the space of a few months.

Another thing that jumps out at me....where will they even find 50k customs officers in a few months? They would have to be the right age and have suitable experience, education and qualifications and living very close to British ports and airports.

fash

RobMc59 wrote: »

Is`nt creating 50,000 more jobs a good thing?

I will assume that you are not trolling but this question is as close to trolling as it is possible to get without actually doing so.
The UK is forcing UK companies to pay for 50,000 additional workers (in this one sector alone - don't forget the UK is also employing (e.g.) an extra 25,000 civil servants to work on Brexit). Not only do these have to be paid for, a significant cost drag - let's say £30,000 * 75k = £2.25Bn per annum drag- All of these 75.000 extra people are being paid to make it more difficult for UK companies to trade. There are not 50,000 additional customs officials - so there will also now be 100,000 additional UK workers needed in the private sector to fill out the customs paperwork that these 50,000 customs workers want (that at a cost of £3Bn or so).
These people are being paid by UK citizens to literally make their life more difficult - if 50,000 were paid just to sit at home and do nothing, it would be a massive improvement.

Zubeneschamali

fash wrote: »

All of these 75.000 extra people are being paid to make it more difficult for UK companies to trade.

Wait and see, lots of these jobs will be with contract companies and in a couple of years Commons committees will be investigating to see how much of the billions spent ended up in the pockets of Johnson's backers.

RobMc59

fash wrote: »

I will assume that you are not trolling but this question is as close to trolling as it is possible to get without actually doing so.
The UK is forcing UK companies to pay for 50,000 additional workers (in this one sector alone - don't forget the UK is also employing (e.g.) an extra 25,000 civil servants to work on Brexit). Not only do these have to be paid for, a significant cost drag - let's say £30,000 * 75k = £2.25Bn per annum drag- All of these 75.000 extra people are being paid to make it more difficult for UK companies to trade. There are not 50,000 additional customs officials - so there will also now be 100,000 additional UK workers needed in the private sector to fill out the customs paperwork that these 50,000 customs workers want (that at a cost of £3Bn or so).
These people are being paid by UK citizens to literally make their life more difficult - if 50,000 were paid just to sit at home and do nothing, it would be a massive improvement.

And I will assume you're not backseat modding.
Expressing a British view isn't trolling,obviously I want my country to come through this as relatively unscathed as possible. I also realise what the UK government is asking for is unobtainable and even if the EU were to accommodate them it would signal the end of the EU as other countries would want the same.
I asked my question about 50,000 jobs because that's a significant amount of jobs-we all know what ever agreements are made(if any!)border staff will be required on both sides.
There are British people who are equally as upset about brexit as many Irish people are.

Sam Russell

fash wrote: »

I will assume that you are not trolling but this question is as close to trolling as it is possible to get without actually doing so.
The UK is forcing UK companies to pay for 50,000 additional workers (in this one sector alone - don't forget the UK is also employing (e.g.) an extra 25,000 civil servants to work on Brexit). Not only do these have to be paid for, a significant cost drag - let's say £30,000 * 75k = £2.25Bn per annum drag- All of these 75.000 extra people are being paid to make it more difficult for UK companies to trade. There are not 50,000 additional customs officials - so there will also now be 100,000 additional UK workers needed in the private sector to fill out the customs paperwork that these 50,000 customs workers want (that at a cost of £3Bn or so).
These people are being paid by UK citizens to literally make their life more difficult - if 50,000 were paid just to sit at home and do nothing, it would be a massive improvement.

The figure of £30,000 is a gross underestimate. They need to include office space, or are they to work out of a boot of a car? They need to allow for pensions, and they have higher ups who would want generous pay differentials. At a minimum, £50,000 would be the least, rising to £100,000 per employee if they are based in central London.

I think the cost of this customs lark will be touching £10 billion if the cost to industry is taking into account.

fash

RobMc59 wrote: »

And I will assume you're not backseat modding.
Expressing a British view isn't trolling,.

I sincerely apologise - the bit that I had difficulties with is where you effectively asked whether paying 50,000 to go around the country to burn people's houses down would be a good thing- as at least 50,000 were now employed.
It is not a good thing: they are not adding value.

fash

fash wrote: »

I sincerely apologise - the bit that I had difficulties with is where you effectively asked whether paying 50,000 to go around the country to burn people's houses down would be a good thing- as at least 50,000 were now employed.
It is not a good thing: they are not adding value.

If they're earning, they're spending, so local businesses will benefit from their spending power.


The real economy is mostly small to medium traders, not importers & exporters.