Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

johnnyskeleton

dresden8 wrote: »

Unfortunately we know the Brits are lying about the border.

Don't be surprised if we are faced with a choice of putting up a border or leaving the single market. The Brits would love to tear another country out of the EU.

Remember, they don't just want Brexit, they want to destroy the EU.

Most likely it will be that the UK has a choice of either carrying out Irish sea checks or else facing EU sanctions.

There was a real possibility that we would have to put up a border prior to the withdrawal agreement. But now the withdrawal agreement means that the UK will only not comply out of spite. The consequences for them in terms of Trade with the EU, the US and indeed the rest of the world would far outwiegh the benefits of reneging on the frontstop.

Harry Palmr

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/coronavirus-brexit-talks-over-eu-uk-trade-cancelled_uk_5e70f4f8c5b60fb69ddee923?utm_hp_ref=uk-homepage

ll face-to-face Brexit talks have been cancelled as coronavirus tightens its grip across Europe.

Downing Street said ministers will “not formally be convening” negotiations over EU-UK trade, amid the outbreaks of the virus in Britain and on the continent.

The statement says “both sides remain committed” to talks and hope to thrash out an agreement, suggesting there will be contact.

There has been no change in policy on the transition period due to end in December, a statement from the government on Tuesday said.

Ministers and officials from Brussels had been due to begin negotiations over UK-EU trade this month with both sides hoping to strike a fast-track deal in the coming months.

The news will intensify pressure on Boris Johnson to extend the transition period to ensure the UK does not crash out of the bloc and be forced to rely on World Trade Organisation rules.

The government said: “In light of the latest guidance on coronavirus, we will not formally be convening negotiating work strands tomorrow in the way we did in the previous round.

“We expect to share a draft free trade agreement alongside the draft legal texts of a number of the standalone agreements in the near future still, as planned.

“Both sides remain fully committed to the negotiations and we remain in regular contact with the European Commission to consider alternative ways to continue discussions, including looking at the possibility of video conferencing or conference calls, and exploring flexibility in the structure for the coming weeks.

“The transition period ends on 31 December 2020. This is enshrined in UK law.”

mayo.mick

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1239998615180935168

McGiver

CelticRambler wrote:

Meanwhile in Schengenland, so many countries have found that their status as independent sovereign states within the EU allows them to throw up border controls overnight. It's almost as if the Leave campaign exaggerated the effect of EU membership on national governance ...

The only problem with that is that it's potentially against the EU treaties really. Denmark, Czechia and Poland completely closed the borders (Czechia for both inward and outward directions) and this is absolutely against the Treaties. The EC got aggro because of that.

CelticRambler

McGiver wrote: »

The only problem with that is that it's potentially against the EU treaties really. Denmark, Czechia and Poland completely closed the borders (Czechia for both inward and outward directions) and this is absolutely against the Treaties. The EC got aggro because of that.

As pointed out above, it's all above board. This is the second time I've been in the border zone (along the Rhine) in recent years and seen the barriers go up with neither side being upset about it.

moon2

McGiver wrote: »

The only problem with that is that it's potentially against the EU treaties really. Denmark, Czechia and Poland completely closed the borders (Czechia for both inward and outward directions) and this is absolutely against the Treaties. The EC got aggro because of that.

Which part is absolutely against the treaties And which is only potentially against them? It's within the rights of a sovereign nation to close their borders in the event of an emergency, and I believe this counts.

CelticRambler

I didn't see it in any of the English-language media, but Macron's broadcast last night also included an announcement that he's suspending all of the debate and legislative groundwork concerning his pensions reform. Why can a politician on one side of the English Channel demonstrate this level of common sense and his counterpart on the other side think it's reasonable, sensible, even desirable to plough ahead with changing the status quo in one contentious direction when the status quo is already being changed in other ways by external forces?

reslfj

CelticRambler wrote: »

As pointed out above, it's all above board. This is the second time I've been in the border zone (along the Rhine) in recent years and seen the barriers go up with neither side being upset about it.

Transport across the borders is allowed as is crossing for going to work (commuting across borders).

FoM is intact.

Entry by passport, visa or free using Schengen rules is partly suspended.

Lars

PS! If there is equal probability for getting the virus on both sides of a border, it makes little sense to close the border (in order to fight the virus).

maebee

Looks like we can't join the EU shutdown coz of the Brits. We would have to close the border.

BonnieSituation

CelticRambler wrote: »

I didn't see it in any of the English-language media, but Macron's broadcast last night also included an announcement that he's suspending all of the debate and legislative groundwork concerning his pensions reform. Why can a politician on one side of the English Channel demonstrate this level of common sense and his counterpart on the other side think it's reasonable, sensible, even desirable to plough ahead with changing the status quo in one contentious direction when the status quo is already being changed in other ways by external forces?

The same way that a politician on one side of the Irish sea can.

There's only one common denominator here.

Peregrinus

McGiver wrote: »

The only problem with that is that it's potentially against the EU treaties really. Denmark, Czechia and Poland completely closed the borders (Czechia for both inward and outward directions) and this is absolutely against the Treaties. The EC got aggro because of that.

EU law allows member states to apply border/movement controls for public health reasons. They don't need prior permission or approval. They are required to notify the Commission of what they are doing, but this isn't a particularly onerous imposition since any government applying border controls will naturally want to publicise the matter widely. The purpose of the notification requirement is to facilitate planning and co-ordinated action.

Xertz

Almost everything in EU law is circumscribed by public health and national security measures that can be evoked by member states with good reason.

I think this very easily qualifies.

The EU isn’t a federal state and I think that’s often forgotten in the fog of Brexit conspiracy theories trying to describe it as something it really isn’t.

Also in many areas people expect the EU to be able to act when in realty it neither has the powers nor the budgets to do so. For example, it has no signifiant role in health with the exception of the pooled systems for approval of drugs and medicines and coordinating the EHIC schemes and so on. Almost everything is done by leveraging cooperation, not from a central fund.

So it’s always stuck between those two stools. You’ve people and media commentators demanding it act in a crisis like this and then you’ve the exact same people demanding it be given no budget or powers.

In this health crisis it’s trying to use its abilities to coordinate efforts to procure ventilators and other medical gear and try and keep everyone on the same page. That’s pretty much all it can do though. Sovereign power is most definitely and always was with the member states. You can see that clearly in this.

Just shows what a lot of b/s was fed in the U.K. media over the years.

Hopefully we can leverage some of the tools and powers of the ECB as a central bank and other shared mechanisms to mitigate some of this. There’s still a lot to be said for cooperation and scale.

sandbelter

Nody wrote: »

I'd say overly optimistic there; change it to years and you'd be at the lower end of my guesstimate (20 to 40 years). Keep in mind first they need to leave (with what ever form of deal it will be), then things needs to get so bad people actually start to challenge all the BS they been fed (and many will never do that), have enough elderly die off (sorry to be crude) and young once grow up to vote to swing the vote. And on top of that you need a full leadership change in both parties beyond the current seniors (because neither are competent enough to bring UK back into EU). In short; this is not a short term thing but will most likely measure in decades rather than months to happen.

And even that assumes the Status Quo holds in Europe. No: Spain vetoing over Gibraltar; France not vetoing because they think De Gaulle was right all along; Greece and the Eligin marbles; and finally, Russia stays on the margins of Europe.

Worst of all from the UK's perspective, the EU finds it works better without them.

Finally it needs to be remembered does apply it will because Brexit failed, it wouldn't be prosperous Britain which seeks to return...but one that has become the "sick man of Europe" again...that would be expensive for everyone else.

Infini

Sterling now at 92p to €1.Currency is continuing to slide tho I'm not sure it's all the UK as other currencies sliding against the Euro too.

Sam Russell

Infini wrote: »

Sterling now at 92p to €1.Currency is continuing to slide tho I'm not sure it's all the UK as other currencies sliding against the Euro too.

GBP has fallen 11.5% over the last month. There must be a herd instinct at work.

Euro/USD has remained much the same over the month, but there was a rise for the Euro mid month, but back again now.

GBP is definitely on a slide.

listermint

Infini wrote: »

Sterling now at 92p to €1.Currency is continuing to slide tho I'm not sure it's all the UK as other currencies sliding against the Euro too.

94 on XE

CelticRambler

Sam Russell wrote: »

GBP has fallen 11.5% over the last month. There must be a herd instinct at work.

Euro/USD has remained much the same over the month, but there was a rise for the Euro mid month, but back again now.

There's a brief comment on the Guardian's live business feed that explains it in one simple phrase: these days, the Euro is considered a safe and stable reserve currency; the pound isn't.

Sam Russell

CelticRambler wrote: »

There's a brief comment on the Guardian's live business feed that explains it in one simple phrase: these days, the Euro is considered a safe and stable reserve currency; the pound isn't.

The current British Government might be the reason for this.

RobMc59

CelticRambler wrote: »

I didn't see it in any of the English-language media, but Macron's broadcast last night also included an announcement that he's suspending all of the debate and legislative groundwork concerning his pensions reform. Why can a politician on one side of the English Channel demonstrate this level of common sense and his counterpart on the other side think it's reasonable, sensible, even desirable to plough ahead with changing the status quo in one contentious direction when the status quo is already being changed in other ways by external forces?

I hope the people of mainland Europe come through this terrible virus and eventually the world develops a vaccine.I don`t really see any advantage in criticising any other countries approach to the virus,even though it`s obvious some countries have`nt acted accordingly which has resulted in the current situation.(I purposely have`nt mentioned countries by name as I don`t think sniping at one another helps.)
We all have older relatives and possibly relatives living in the most affected countries so emotions are bound to be high amongst us all.

BonnieSituation

RobMc59 wrote: »

I hope the people of mainland Europe come through this terrible virus and eventually the world develops a vaccine.I don`t really see any advantage in criticising any other countries approach to the virus,even though it`s obvious some countries have`nt acted accordingly which has resulted in the current situation.(I purposely have`nt mentioned countries by name as I don`t think sniping at one another helps.)
We all have older relatives and possibly relatives living in the most affected countries so emotions are bound to be high amongst us all.

You would hope that criticism that is constructive is heeded and that they can turn the corner somewhat even if it hurts your own personal British sensibilities.

Judging by the last couple of days though, Britain will finally cotton on and be in lockstep with ourselves and our European colleagues soon enough.

Peregrinus

Sam Russell wrote: »

GBP has fallen 11.5% over the last month. There must be a herd instinct at work.

Euro/USD has remained much the same over the month, but there was a rise for the Euro mid month, but back again now.

GBP is definitely on a slide.

The Financial Times's explanation for this is that, while many countries are facing
economic stress from the coronavirus pandemic, only the UK is doing so when "already weakened by an underlying condition (Brexit)". The judgment of the markets is that coronavirus will impact the UK more heavily that it impacts other countries because of Brexit.

BonnieSituation

Peregrinus wrote: »

The Financial Times's explanation for this is that, while many countries are facing
economic stress from the coronavirus pandemic, only the UK is doing so when "already weakened by an underlying condition (Brexit)". The judgment of the markets is that coronavirus will impact the UK more heavily that it impacts other countries because of Brexit.

Which again explains the tosh explanation of "herd immunity" and was merely cover to prop up the pyramid.

Infini

Peregrinus wrote: »

The Financial Times's explanation for this is that, while many countries are facing
economic stress from the coronavirus pandemic, only the UK is doing so when "already weakened by an underlying condition (Brexit)". The judgment of the markets is that coronavirus will impact the UK more heavily that it impacts other countries because of Brexit.

Just looking on Revolut trading on that is hitting 94.5 to €1, sterling is just slow burning away value.

Leonard Hofstadter

Infini wrote: »

Just looking on Revolut trading on that is hitting 94.5 to €1, sterling is just slow burning away value.

94.1p at the moment, went up to 94.6p earlier. Could come very close to parity the next few days.

Even though there is nothing to buy, if you have a current account or other account denominated in GBP, it is a great time to buy Sterling, especially if you wanted to try and bring a car in from there once this all settles down or something like that; even if you don't, you can always get it in cash from a travel agent or An Post online, just get it delivered in order to minimise the risk of Covid-19.

beggars_bush

Leonard Hofstadter wrote: »

94.1p at the moment, went up to 94.6p earlier. Could come very close to parity the next few days.

Even though there is nothing to buy, if you have a current account or other account denominated in GBP, it is a great time to buy Sterling, especially if you wanted to try and bring a car in from there once this all settles down or something like that; even if you don't, you can always get it in cash from a travel agent or An Post online, just get it delivered in order to minimise the risk of Covid-19.

You'd want to be buying a heap of it

Peregrinus

Leonard Hofstadter wrote: »

Even though there is nothing to buy, if you have a current account or other account denominated in GBP, it is a great time to buy Sterling . . .

Only if you have some reason to expect that sterling will go up against the euro. This is not a given. What comes down does not inevitably go up again.

BonnieSituation

Peregrinus wrote: »

Only if you have some reason to expect that sterling will go up against the euro. This is not a given. What comes down does not inevitably go up again.

Well it suits me as my RWC trip to Japan was partially funded by the generous folks at Barclaycard.

I've been waiting on this collapse a while.

Peregrinus

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Well it suits me as my RWC trip to Japan was partially funded by the generous folks at Barclaycard.

I've been waiting on this collapse a while.

Fair enough. If you have debts in sterling, now is probably an opportune moment to settle them.

BonnieSituation

Peregrinus wrote: »

Fair enough. If you have debts in sterling, now is probably an opportune moment to settle them.

There's definitely more movement.

Infini

Was looking on Revolut it literally hit 94.99p for a second it's very close to breaking 95p the lowest it's ever been and I dont think it will stop there, the Brits have no protection against this and I expect thing's only to get worse for them the Coronavirus is a catalyst it's just speeding up things that might have happened later on down the line but the Euro is surging against other currencies too, it's gained quite a bit on the US dollar and the canadian dollar is dropping close to 1.60 to the Euro as well.

If we hit parity in the next few days it will be something to see.