Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

RobMc59

CelticRambler wrote: »

Correction: Yes - the Irish Independent is very much a sensationalist tabloid (with a clickbaity website to match). A quick search of this website will show you how many of it's articles are shown to be severely lacking in journalistic integrity.

I checked on wikipedia which describes it as a 'compact'but feel free to continue 'making it up as you go along'to fit your agenda which seems to be the order of the day here when something can't be discredited as 'fake news' or 'sensationalist garbage'

johnnyskeleton

RobMc59 wrote: »

I checked on wikipedia which describes it as a 'compact'but feel free to continue 'making it up as you go along'to fit your agenda which seems to be the order of the day here when something can't be discredited as 'fake news' or 'sensationalist garbage'

Mod note:

Last chance. You came on to post that Russia were putting the EU to shame by helping Italy while the EU did nothing. While the EU fiddled, was I think your terminology.

People have pointed out the inaccuracy of this and you refuse to engage with them, instead dumping links and then going off on tangents.

You can either discuss the issues raised by other posters, or stop posting. This is a discussion forum, after all. The issues raised contrary to your assertion are, in no particular order:

1. It being pointed out, and indisputable, that the EU has no competency in Member State's health services;
2. Individual Member States are helping each other
3. Apparently 80% of the Russian aid is useless.
4. The issue of financial assistance is completely separate to medical supplies and will be dealt with in due course, the EU will agree on the financial package once the worst of the humanitarian crisis has been dealt with.

BanditLuke

I still have a feeling the UK might hopefully use the virus crisis to roll back on Brexit in some way. Wishful thinking I know but stranger things have happened.

ancapailldorcha

BanditLuke wrote: »

I still have a feeling the UK might hopefully use the virus crisis to roll back on Brexit in some way. Wishful thinking I know but stranger things have happened.

It can't. Well, not unilaterally at least. It would need to go back to the table and basically beg. I can't see the EU refusing to let it back in but ultimately, given that there is insufficient political will to ask for an extension which seems like a no brainer then this is pure fantasy.

pixelburp

Has there been any sniff of a think tank or speculation on what Corona and (a hard) Brexit could do for the UK Economy? By all accounts those relating to the latter have tended to be borderline disastrous, or at the very least sobering. While it seems churlish to talk about it before the crest has been mounted, I can't help but imagine the UK economy is in serious, almost calamitous trouble once the dust settles on both. Assuming both parties in the talks decide to soften requirements in light of the global downturn coming ...

Gerry T

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

It can't. Well, not unilaterally at least. It would need to go back to the table and basically beg. I can't see the EU refusing to let it back in but ultimately, given that there is insufficient political will to ask for an extension which seems like a no brainer then this is pure fantasy.

They have left and would have to apply for membership. That would require adopting the Euro, not getting a 4 odd billion rebate, joining schengen and not having all the other opt outs such as further EU integration. That's my understanding. Also their application would require all EU member states agreeing to their application and they may have conditions for that to happen.

In summary I really can't see that the UK will rejoin in the coming decades.

Peregrinus

Gerry T wrote: »

They have left and would have to apply for membership. That would require adopting the Euro, not getting a 4 odd billion rebate, joining schengen and not having all the other opt outs such as further EU integration. That's my understanding. Also their application would require all EU member states agreeing to their application and they may have conditions for that to happen.

In summary I really can't see that the UK will rejoin in the coming decades.

That's all correct.

I think a slightly more realistic speculation is, could the experience of the CV19 pandemic bring home to the UK what a massively, massively stupid and self-destructive idea hard Brexit is, and persuade them to change tack and seek a softer Brexit, with more co-operation and shared endeavour and less of the knee-jerk repudiation of anything with the word "European" in it?

I'm not wildly optimistic. But it's a more plausible speculation than "will the UK rejoin as a result of the CV19 pandemic?" No, they won't.

dogbert27

Boris Johnson's Letter to the People, to explain why he's taking the measures he's taking was at a cost of £5.8 million.

The government already made an address to the nation of why they're doing what they're doing and give daily updates on tv.

Surely this money would have been better directed to the NHS instead of a political PR stunt. :rolleyes:

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-28/in-full-johnsons-coronavirus-letter-to-30-million-uk-households-warning-things-will-get-worse-before-they-get-better/

CelticRambler

RobMc59 wrote: »

I checked on wikipedia which describes it as a 'compact'but feel free to continue 'making it up as you go along'to fit your agenda which seems to be the order of the day here when something can't be discredited as 'fake news' or 'sensationalist garbage'

The Irish Independent is primarily stuffed with stories about celebrities, social justice and "human interest" (usually with an obligatory description of "tragic" or "tragedy" - google it), aswell as an apparent crusade to portray Dublin as the favela of Europe. That's all objectively verifiable, regardless of what impression you might have garnered from Wikipedia.

In the meantime, you haven't been able to provide a single example of Russia offering humanitarian aid to any EU country, other than "80% useless" propaganda exercise; nor have you been able to provide an examples of requests made by Italy that were refused by the EU.

I, on the other hand, have cited several examples of intra-EU cooperation, and specific assistance given by the EU to Italy. On balance, I'd say my verifiable reports of EU solidarity (including help offered to Italy) outweigh you third-hand anecdotes of something someone said to someone outside an Italian supermarket.

Gerry T

Peregrinus wrote: »

That's all correct.

I think a slightly more realistic speculation is, could the experience of the CV19 pandemic bring home to the UK what a massively, massively stupid and self-destructive idea hard Brexit is, and persuade them to change tack and seek a softer Brexit, with more co-operation and shared endeavour and less of the knee-jerk repudiation of anything with the word "European" in it?

I'm not wildly optimistic. But it's a more plausible speculation than "will the UK rejoin as a result of the CV19 pandemic?" No, they won't.

In their hour of need they managed to "loose" emails about participating in the EU procurement scheme tackling Cv19, some would suggest a deliberate loss. If you asked Johnson he might concede that a hard brexit is not in their best interest, but in Oct or Nov his rhetoric could very easily switch back to "they need us more than we need them".
I agree a slow separation makes perfect sense and I hope that's what happens, but I still don't think it will.

reslfj

Gerry T wrote: »

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

... It would need to go back to the table and basically beg. I can't see the EU refusing to let it back in ...
... given that there is insufficient political will to ask for an extension which seems like a no brainer then this is pure fantasy.

They have left and would have to apply for membership. That would require

• adopting the Euro,
• not getting a 4 odd billion rebate,
• joining Schengen and
• not having all the other opt outs such as further EU integration.

... Also their application would require all EU member states agreeing to their application and they may have conditions for that to happen.

In summary I really can't see that the UK will rejoin in the coming decades.

The EU27 will negotiate a new membership deal with the UK if asked - but only if wholeheartedly asked and backed by a clear majority in the UK.

I believe the EU27 member states will act fast, positively and will show extreme flexibility and speed in the negotiations. I agree this looks very, very unlikely. But when you and your ship is sinking, a seat in a lifeboat may suddenly appear very attractive - just saying.

The UK will have to accept a very much worse membership deal than the very best it had until Jan 31. 2020. I doubt, however, several of your point above, Gerry T, will be the worst or may not even be included.

Joining the Euro requires a much better economy the the UK has and will have in many years to come. The UK may not get a legal opt out, but in reality it will not happen for very many years (like Sweden).
But even outside the Euro stricter rules for deficits and debt may well include any future members (as well as the EU27 member)

The rebate has been more like €9-10bn/yr, but no rebate in the future is a very sure bet.

Schengen or not - ask in Dublin.
The value of Schengen is 10-100 times higher when you have land borders, than when you only have air and sea borders where lots of controls - tickets, check-ins, security checks - have to be organised anyway.
The core point with such borders is access to the Schengen databases at UK (+RoI) entry points.

I would think the UK can obtain a few (less important to the EU) opt-outs - mostly as a political marketing gift.
However, the UK may need to give very hard and enforceable commitments to support the EU moving forward. This will, in my view, likely include a more firm definition of and regime for the tax base and for global tax collecting.

I do also see that the conditions for joining the EU will have to be enforced not just at the date of entry, but permanently (the UK unwritten constitution may well be challenged in both form and in content note)

Lars

Note: The 'democracy' in EU and the UK has been on display during Brexit. The UK did not win many points as seen from the EU27. And it is surely NOT the HoL nor the Queen that seems to be the problem.

CelticRambler

pixelburp wrote: »

Has there been any sniff of a think tank or speculation on what Corona and (a hard) Brexit could do for the UK Economy?

None that I've seen, but it would stand to reason that any Great Trade Deal with the US is going to be on shaky ground, as that country tries to re-build itself with another couple of trillion dollars' worth of debt.

It'd be nice to think that the authors of Brexit (and MAGA) would be chastened by the demonstration of how interconnected and interdependent our modern society has become, but there's been nothing in their recent behaviour to suggest that they've learnt any lessons of that nature.

Sam Russell

CelticRambler wrote: »

None that I've seen, but it would stand to reason that any Great Trade Deal with the US is going to be on shaky ground, as that country tries to re-build itself with another couple of trillion dollars' worth of debt.

It'd be nice to think that the authors of Brexit (and MAGA) would be chastened by the demonstration of how interconnected and interdependent our modern society has become, but there's been nothing in their recent behaviour to suggest that they've learnt any lessons of that nature.

The world may have to redraw the limits to what globalisation means. It makes little sense to have products shipped from one side of the world to the other for very little benefit.

Add in the effect on the climate with this wanton disregard to pollution and the creation of poverty and subsequent mass migration of the poor to the rich countries, then perhaps 'local' might make more sense than 'cheaper'.

If the 100 hundred richest people in the world donated 50% of their wealth to a recovery fund, there would be a huge effect. [Of course, the greed of these people knows no bounds].

I think Brexit will be a side show after the corona virus is in retreat. It will be a minor issue in UK politics if what is expected happens.

RobMc59

reslfj wrote: »

The EU27 will negotiate a new membership deal with the UK if asked - but only if wholeheartedly asked and backed by a clear majority in the UK.

I believe the EU27 member states will act fast, positively and will show extreme flexibility and speed in the negotiations. I agree this looks very, very unlikely. But when you and your ship is sinking, a seat in a lifeboat may suddenly appear very attractive - just saying.

The UK will have to accept a very much worse membership deal than the very best it had until Jan 31. 2020. I doubt, however, several of your point above, Gerry T, will be the worst or may not even be included.

Joining the Euro requires a much better economy the the UK has and will have in many years to come. The UK may not get a legal opt out, but in reality it will not happen for very many years (like Sweden).
But even outside the Euro stricter rules for deficits and debt may well include any future members (as well as the EU27 member)

The rebate has been more like €9-10bn/yr, but no rebate in the future is a very sure bet.

Schengen or not - ask in Dublin.
The value of Schengen is 10-100 times higher when you have land borders, than when you only have air and sea borders where lots of controls - tickets, check-ins, security checks - have to be organised anyway.
The core point with such borders is access to the Schengen databases at UK (+RoI) entry points.

I would think the UK can obtain a few (less important to the EU) opt-outs - mostly as a political marketing gift.
However, the UK may need to give very hard and enforceable commitments to support the EU moving forward. This will, in my view, likely include a more firm definition of and regime for the tax base and for global tax collecting.

I do also see that the conditions for joining the EU will have to be enforced not just at the date of entry, but permanently (the UK unwritten constitution may well be challenged in both form and in content note)

Lars

Note: The 'democracy' in EU and the UK has been on display during Brexit. The UK did not win many points as seen from the EU27. And it is surely NOT the HoL nor the Queen that seems to be the problem.

I imagine the colossal cost of all this will effect all nations.The UK may never recover fully from it,whilst the EU will probably be less affected they would probably welcome the return of the UK,especially countries like Germany who would welcome Britain as a financial foil to ensure the cost will be spread fairly around all nations.

reslfj

RobMc59 wrote: »

I imagine the colossal cost of all this will effect all nations.The UK may never recover fully from it,whilst the EU will probably be less affected they would probably welcome the return of the UK,especially countries like Germany who would welcome Britain as a financial foil to ensure the cost will be spread fairly around all nations.

You are totally overestimating the size and influence of the UK economy on the EU27 member states.


We want the UK to be part of Europe = EU/EEA/CH (excl. Russia and its sphere) for political and security reasons. First and foremost we want a united Europe in a large and unpredictable world.

The UK now has a more limited influence on the EU27 economy than it did in 2016. Its economy will be even less important (to the EU) after the corona lockdown.
Many EU27 businesses will have to rebuild much of there B2B network after the corona recession and new non UK suppliers will surely be preferred - transition or not.

There are very few products that can't be sourced in the EU27 - both in quality, quantity and price - from non-UK. There are many products and product groups the UK will almost not be able to sell into the SM - e.g. fish, farm, and auto - unless the UK agrees to a very comprehensive future deal.

The cost of the corona will be paid by each country. The Italians hopes naively otherwise. It will get liquidity here and now, but with stronger pay back obligations.
The SM will allow EU27 companies to come back to previous production levels faster and much less expensive the than UK companies can - even with a very good future deal.


Lars

dogbert27

Good show of support between EU members

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_174623.htm

CelticRambler

dogbert27 wrote: »

Good show of support between EU members

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_174623.htm

Would that be the same Czech Republic that stole a consignment of masks being sent to Italy by the Chinese?

Professor Moriarty

A large majority of people in the UK - 64% - now want the UK to request an extension due to Covid-19.

moon2

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

A large majority of people in the UK - 64% - now want the UK to request an extension due to Covid-19.

If only there were the foresight to allow for an extension!

Oh, that possibility was accounted or? Oh, Boris actually went ahead and unilaterally ruled out any possibility* of extending? Huh, what an odd thing to do.

Obvious sarcasm aside, I wonder who'll be shouting this from the roof and what impact it'll have. Their PM ruled this out for no reason whatsoever, and now the voice of the population is (apparently) quite adamant about the need for one. If the law is changed again, how will that be reported? Will it be plucky Britain forcing the EU to capitulate again, or will it be reported as it really happened - the UK shot itself in the foot and is now removing the bullet.

[0] https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/16/boris-johnson-will-amend-brexit-bill-to-outlaw-extension (note, had an issue finding a link showing this actually went ahead, I'm pretty certain it did though )

Professor Moriarty

moon2 wrote: »

If only there were the foresight to allow for an extension!

Oh, that possibility was accounted or? Oh, Boris actually went ahead and unilaterally ruled out any possibility* of extending? Huh, what an odd thing to do.

Obvious sarcasm aside, I wonder who'll be shouting this from the roof and what impact it'll have. Their PM ruled this out for no reason whatsoever, and now the voice of the population is (apparently) quite adamant about the need for one. If the law is changed again, how will that be reported? Will it be plucky Britain forcing the EU to capitulate again, or will it be reported as it really happened - the UK shot itself in the foot and is now removing the bullet.

[0] https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/16/boris-johnson-will-amend-brexit-bill-to-outlaw-extension (note, had an issue finding a link showing this actually went ahead, I'm pretty certain it did though )

My understanding is that Johnson can ask for an extension. Dunno how the ERG will react. Or what terms and conditions the EU might place on such an extension.

LeinsterDub

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

My understanding is that Johnson can ask for an extension. Dunno how the ERG will react. Or what terms and conditions the EU might place on such an extension.

They'll have to pay into the budget for sure but they'll not be allowed to negotiate it

ancapailldorcha

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

My understanding is that Johnson can ask for an extension. Dunno how the ERG will react. Or what terms and conditions the EU might place on such an extension.

With the majority he has, the ERG will not be an issue.

Enzokk

I believe Johnson has ruled out an extension already when they passed the WAB. Now they could just legislate again for an extension but what he has done is made it more difficult and time consuming to get an extension. Seeing as this is the government that is in charge of the current mess of the Covid pandemic in the UK where Johnson was shaking hands with sick patients and, who would have guessed, he got infected as well it doesn't fill me with confidence that they will be sensible in asking for an extension.

Professor Moriarty

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

With the majority he has, the ERG will not be an issue.

No, but ideological hardliners have fixed ideas and long memories.

Sam Russell

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

No, but ideological hardliners have fixed ideas and long memories.

They do indeed have long memories. They remember the flight from Dunkirk like they were there - maybe some of them were.

Lemming

Gerry T wrote: »

In their hour of need they managed to "loose" emails about participating in the EU procurement scheme tackling Cv19, some would suggest a deliberate loss. If you asked Johnson he might concede that a hard brexit is not in their best interest, but in Oct or Nov his rhetoric could very easily switch back to "they need us more than we need them".
I agree a slow separation makes perfect sense and I hope that's what happens, but I still don't think it will.

It was interesting watching a twitter clip of Gove being interviewed yesterday by Marr regards that very topic. His choice of words was very telling as to what the truth behind the matter very likely was and is; that it was a deliberate act not to engage. "There is no reason why we cannot, as an independent nation, etc." or words to that effect. I'd need to go find the clip again, but that is the general jist of what he said and fairly close to his actual words if not exact.

If it wasn't so serious, it'd be farcial as it seems to be complete amateur hour in Cabinet circles as they get found out on what would appear to have been an impossible lie to keep going given how much public information was out there already.

ancapailldorcha

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

No, but ideological hardliners have fixed ideas and long memories.

Now, they're a minority though and they're not going to risk torpedoing a Conservative government with Johnson at the helm.

Lemming

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Now, they're a minority though and they're not going to risk torpedoing a Conservative government with Johnson at the helm.

Never underestimate the word 'crazy' and the levels to which it will go in its attempts at ... well ... craziness.

Extremely unlikely that anything might come of such machinations but stranger things in life have happened. Like Brexit.

ancapailldorcha

Lemming wrote: »

Never underestimate the word 'crazy' and the levels to which it will go in its attempts at ... well ... craziness.

Extremely unlikely that anything might come of such machinations but stranger things in life have happened. Like Brexit.

Well, the current situation wouldn't be wildly different from a no deal Brexit and the usual voices have been oddly absent since the end of January.

The last two Conservative governments operated on either a wafer thin majority or none at all, giving the arch-Brexiters more power. This one has a solid mandate so that is not an issue.

BanditLuke

BBC News - Delay Brexit deadline amid coronavirus, say MEPs
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-52101096

And so it begins