Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

Mezcita

hotmail.com wrote: »

Something creepy about Boris constantly photographed in schools.

Insightful analysis. Thanks.

CelticRambler

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

After antagonizing One Nation Tories, the DUP, and the No Deal contingent, he has no credible allies after the election. He could well be leader of the largest party after the election and still end up in opposition.

Or he might lose his own seat and have to watch from the sidelines as the Tories scramble to find a new PM for their shiny new majority! :pac:

hotmail.com

Mezcita wrote: »

Insightful analysis. Thanks.

You're welcome.


New poll has Conservatives at 41%, up 8%. Labour down at 24.

ancapailldorcha

hotmail.com wrote: »

Something creepy about Boris constantly photographed in schools.

Mezcita wrote: »

Insightful analysis. Thanks.

No more of the one-liners please.

CelticRambler

hotmail.com wrote: »

New poll has Conservatives at 41%, up 8%. Labour down at 24.

If you didn't pick those figures out of thin air, please provide a link to the poll. Thanks

That said, with 7 weeks to go, even if they are "genuine" they mean diddly squat. AFAIK, no party has actually produced their formal manifesto yet.

CelticRambler

On the question of polling, and especially the genuinely meaningful vote on 12/12, the distribution of seats in this election more than any other in recent times is probably going to really highlight the deficiencies/undemocratic/non-representative nature of the FPTP system. I wonder if the Lib Dems are sufficiently successful to have a king-making presence in the HoC will demand a move towards Proportional Representation before the end of the next parliamentary term as their price for supporting either Labour or the Conservatives?

Professor Moriarty

hotmail.com wrote: »

You're welcome.


New poll has Conservatives at 41%, up 8%. Labour down at 24.

Last ten polls before and after that poll, and including that poll, are averaging:

Tories: 36%
Lab: 24%
LD: 18%

Professor Genius

Corbyn’s speech was quite good today. I’d imagine you will see a few points swing on the back of it

A Dub in Glasgo

Labour / Tories looking to give way to Lib Dem challenge for SNPs Ian Blackford seat - Better Together is back!

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/labour-and-tories-will-sit-back-to-let-lib-dems-oust-blackford-s77mrgtxj

listermint

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Labour / Tories looking to give way to Lib Dem challenge for SNPs Ian Blackford seat - Better Together is back!

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/labour-and-tories-will-sit-back-to-let-lib-dems-oust-blackford-s77mrgtxj

The tories cant give way to anything, nor labour in this seat. Which is why the article is crap

Bannasidhe

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I don't know. I quite like Jo Swinson but I've not paid a great deal of attention to her. My housemate's hackles have risen due to her incessant criticism of Jeremy Corbyn while largely sparing Johnson from any similar censure. I don't know why this is. Maybe she's trying to court liberal and moderate Tories but failing to condemn the man who is trying to wreak havoc on this country in such a brazenly authoritarian manner is certainly grounds for concern.

This poll and the similar hypocrisy over Scottish independence are not good looks for a liberal party.

I knew absolutely nothing about her so I did some research.
Now I dislike her intently.
I prefer Boris to be honest - his double speak is transparent and his personal ambition above all agenda is never in dispute.

Christy42

Bannasidhe wrote: »

I knew absolutely nothing about her so I did some research.
Now I dislike her intently.
I prefer Boris to be honest - his double speak is transparent and his personal ambition above all agenda is never in dispute.

I never got the attitude of well he is a d*** but he is open about it at least.

Anyway enough people seem to be falling for Boris' double speak as it is.

lawred2

listermint wrote: »

The tories cant give way to anything, nor labour in this seat. Which is why the article is crap

https://www.bbc.com/news/politics/constituencies/S14000055

so cumulatively the Cons/Lab/LD shared 58% of the vote in the 2017 vote

and 46% of the vote in the 2015 vote

So 'technically' possible I suppose. But I would struggle to see a pact between three Westminster parties to oust a Scot and a Parliamentary party leader being received too well after what's happened since 2017.

Given what Scots quite clearly know now about their place in the Union... to accede to a request to vote for a candidate that may not be of their choosing so as to oust a senior SNP party MP who actually cares about Scotland..

Give me a break

Bannasidhe

Christy42 wrote: »

I never got the attitude of well he is a d*** but he is open about it at least.

Anyway enough people seem to be falling for Boris' double speak as it is.

It's a technique I learned while living under Thatcher. You could usually rely on Margaret to carry out whatever she said she would - or at least have a damn good attempt.
Her (evil ) agenda was on display for anyone with half a wit to see.

As is Boris'. Boris lies. Boris flip-flops. Boris will do whatever is advantageous for Boris.

Swinson reminds me of the Head Gal at a Grammar School who will be all friendly to your face while taking notes for the Headmistress.

CelticRambler

Oh jeeeeeez ... just in time for Christmas, Johnson is now telling us the UK has an oven-ready Brexit :eek:

FFS, if we're going to have seven weeks of being assaulted by these ridiculous three-word slogans, I just might decide to disconnect my internet!

Zubeneschamali

Bannasidhe wrote: »

I knew absolutely nothing about her so I did some research. Now I dislike her intently.

I don't like what I know of most politicians, and the more I learn the less I like them.

I don't really see that it matters, though, I vote for them because I prefer them to be running the country based on what they will do, not how likeable they are.

Zubeneschamali

CelticRambler wrote: »

Johnson is now telling us the UK has an oven-ready Brexit

Hopefully someone will point out that the WA is just step 1 of a recipe that will take years to cook.

EDIT: The quote: “We have an oven ready deal, put it in the microwave as soon as we get back after the election on Friday 12th Dec and get it done.”

Twitter is mocking him for cooking an oven ready meal in the microwave.

Bannasidhe

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I don't like what I know of most politicians, and the more I learn the less I like them.

I don't really see that it matters, though, I vote for them because I prefer them to be running the country based on what they will do, not how likeable they are.

And by researching what she has done I decided I dislike her.

I have voted for politicians I personally dislike as a person (coff Diane Abbot coff) but in terms of her actions as an MP she was more in tune with my politics than her opponents.

listermint

So theres something predicted,

Awful air of running away off it though


https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/1189894892207640576

Joe_ Public

listermint wrote: »

So theres something predicted,

Awful air of running away off it though


https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/1189894892207640576

Terrible look if true. Effectively running away from a 24 year old recent graduate not to mention the judgment of the constituents he has represented for the last 10-15 years or whatever it is. Hope he gets rightly hammered for it.

gooch2k9

listermint wrote: »

So theres something predicted,

Awful air of running away off it though


https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/1189894892207640576

Is it not stupid being able to parachute into a random area he has nothing to do with? Do the local Cons not have someone they'd prefer? He's not the only politician that does that over there of course. I know it's related to parish pump issues in Ireland but I think some sort of link is still a good thing.


Funnily enough I got speaking to an English man from that constituency who was in doing a job for us at work. Boris' slogans will go down an absolute treat up there if they're all like that lad.

Strazdas

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Terrible look if true. Effectively running away from a 24 year old recent graduate not to mention the judgment of the constituents he has represented for the last 10-15 years or whatever it is. Hope he gets rightly hammered for it.

The two constituencies are a hundred miles from each other (!) His new one is up in Leicestershire.

lawred2

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Terrible look if true. Effectively running away from a 24 year old recent graduate not to mention the judgment of the constituents he has represented for the last 10-15 years or whatever it is. Hope he gets rightly hammered for it.

He should. But he'll probably increase the margin.

lawred2

Strazdas wrote: »

The two constituencies are a hundred miles from each other (!) His new one is up in Leicestershire.

Do you need a physical residence in your constituency?

Strazdas

lawred2 wrote: »

Do you need a physical residence in your constituency?

I think you must have a constituency office at least. It will look peculiar if he does it though......he is London through and through and has no connection whatsoever to Leicestershire.

prawnsambo

quokula wrote: »

https://twitter.com/bathnesld/status/1189648562080112640

Is that a new low for the Lib Dems? They commissioned a poll in what is actually a Labour / Tory marginal seat, asking "If this was a Tory / Lib Dem marginal, who would you vote for" and are now using that as evidence that people should vote Lib Dem if they want to unseat the Tories.

It's like they're just trying to hand the election to the Conservatives.

Edit: In fairness, it's not really a Tory / Labour marginal as the Tories have a fairly comfortable lead. But Labour were still by far and away the only party close to them in that seat, and the poll is blatantly dishonest.

That was the second question in a poll that put the LibDems in clear second place and the follow up was based on that. They also published the first question results but some people seem to have focused on that one for some reason.

Joe_ Public

Strazdas wrote: »

I think you must have a constituency office at least. It will look peculiar if he does it though......he is London through and through and has no connection whatsoever to Leicestershire.

A lot of mps would be in same boat though. I recall a few years ago when labour parachuted Luciana Berger into liverpool she got mercilessly mocked when she admitted to not knowing who bob shankly was in an interview. Its just the circumstances that make this look so shoddy and cowardly.

Edit: Bill Shankly dammit!!!

Rjd2

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

We've yet to see a campaign. I've no idea what Johnson will run on now that he can't credibly use either the union or the economy. He's just going to have to play to the far right and nationalists and those are people who will vote for him anyway. Moderate Tories might be tempted by the Lib Dems while the Labour vote will likely hold or suffer very slight losses to the Brexit Party, the Lib Dems and the Greens.

He is focusing on socially conservative, economically liberal pro Brexit voters in swing seats who normally would not vote Tory. That's been the plan since day one. Thus the focus on crime, immigration and supposedly pro NHS stance the three issues that are crucial for those voters.

Its a group that is very much in play for this election, whether Boris can lure them into voting Tory remains to be seen.

Rjd2

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Terrible look if true. Effectively running away from a 24 year old recent graduate not to mention the judgment of the constituents he has represented for the last 10-15 years or whatever it is. Hope he gets rightly hammered for it.

He has been officially re selected so its highly unlikely he would flee now.


I clicked on James Melville's twitter page, doesn't seem to be a journalist and somehow he seems to have got this scoop. Coincidentally all his other tweets are tory and Brexit bashing. I think we can wait a little while on this "exclusive".

Varta

Rjd2 wrote: »

He has been officially re selected so its highly unlikely he would flee now.


I clicked on James Melville's twitter page, doesn't seem to be a journalist and somehow he seems to have got this scoop. Coincidentally all his other tweets are tory and Brexit bashing. I think we can wait a little while on this "exclusive".

Shocking to think that the opposition might also lie and get up to dirty tricks. Shakes my faith in democracy.