Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

serfboard

weemcd wrote: »

I didn't think it was possible, but Ingsoc are really going to have to ramp up their nonsense stories once Covid and Brexit are done, if either are ever done, to explain how terribly they have left the economy in Britain.

Nice 1984 reference, but you obviously haven't been reading up on the favourite reading of Messrs Johnson and Trump, "Authoritarianism for Dummies", Chapter 1:

"Whatever good thing happens is because of the amazing, fantastic, tremendous work that I did. Whatever bad thing happens is clearly someone else's fault".

reslfj

I wrote the following, but did not explicitly include the "then" now added.

reslfj wrote: »

When an efficient corona vaccine is general(ly) available, the feeling will be that the pandemic will be over in both the UK and within the EU27.

then

reslfj wrote: »

The EU27 countries will recover fast ...

The UK will recover maybe half the corona GDP loss fairly fast too ... and the UK growth will be mediocre.

I did not give a time for a vaccine, but only assumed it will come and that most people will then feel "we are out of the woods".

There are over 120 corona vaccines being developed world wide, 11 are already in phase 1 and the FDA/US just yesterday granted Moderna a phase 2 permission.

https://vac-lshtm.shinyapps.io/ncov_vaccine_landscape/
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/07/fda-approves-moderna-vaccine-candidate-for-phase-2-study.html

They can of course all fail and confirm Murphy's law, but by far the most likely outcome will be, that some of the vaccines will work sufficiently well to kill off the pandemic - at least in our part of the world.

So that was the scenario I assumed.

Bambi wrote: »

big assumption that theres going to be a vaccine anytime soon.

No it is not a 'big assumption' and as written above i didn't assumed any specific timing.

Nody wrote: »

I think there will be a vaccine; however an effective vaccine is 2021+ territory imo...
There's simply to much money on the table....

If asked, I think this is a very 'middle of the road' assumption for the timing. The money on the table is next to the entire world economy.

Lars

CelticRambler

reslfj wrote: »

There are over 120 corona vaccines being developed world wide, 11 are already in phase 1 and the FDA/US just yesterday granted Moderna a phase 2 permission.

https://vac-lshtm.shinyapps.io/ncov_vaccine_landscape/
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/07/fda-approves-moderna-vaccine-candidate-for-phase-2-study.html

They can of course all fail and confirm Murphy's law, but by far the most likely outcome will be, that some of the vaccines will work sufficiently well to kill off the pandemic - at least in our part of the world.

So that was the scenario I assumed.

Alas, that is a "big assumption" because by far the most likely outcome is that every one of these rushed projects will fail, just like the more carefully planned and executed efforts of the past. There are multiple points of failure along the path, not least the troublesome problem that the likelihood of catching the disease is not reliably linked to catching an infection. That's before you've got to deal with the problem of whether or not artificially stimulated antibody production can protect against a natural occurring infection, especially in the most vulnerable people. And then you've the practical problem of producing enough of the relevant vaccine before the infection fades into insignificance.

No Big Pharma company will take a gamble on that kind of uncertainty, so all the money that's being collected/donated is going to smaller units - university labs, public-private partnerships, odd-bods in their basement - no-one with anywhere near the functional capacity to complete the clinical trials needed for authorisation, let alone manufacture the millions of doses that will be required. Big Pharma is being paid to stay in the game because it helps politicians save face if they can talk about something that everyone knows about, something that always works in the movies.

Back in the real world, vaccine manufacture is dying out, with shortages of many common vaccines now a fairly regular occurrence across Europe; Big Pharma is (quite rightly, IMO) putting their own resources into treatment, not prevention. And in the end, that's all that'll matter to Joe Voter - Am I going to die if I catch it? No? Well, then I want to take a risk and go to the pub ... This takes us back to the hidden cost of Brexit: as soon as any EU company gets its drug approved in one member state, it's approved for use in 27 and any close neighbour who decides to recognise the validity of the EU's approval process. If it's a British lab that comes up with a potentially useful drug, they'll have to seek two approvals at twice the price - one for the NHS and separate series of studies to send to the EMA.

Retr0gamer

I don't believe that at all. GSK is in the process of gutting it's consumer health division and bought Novartis to double down on vaccine manufacture before I left them. There's big money in vaccines and if covid related vaccines become like the common flu it will be a big money spinner for the manufacturers.

I mean H1N1 is a corona virus and a vaccine was developed within a typical vaccine timeline. And there would be less money to be made from a H1N1 vaccine.

CelticRambler

Retr0gamer wrote: »

I mean H1N1 is a corona virus and a vaccine was developed within a typical vaccine timeline. And there would be less money to be made from a H1N1 vaccine.

Getting a bit off topic now, but H1N1 is an influenzavirus. Influenzaviruses "follow the rules" of immunity; coronaviruses don't.

There are no, zero, absolutely none, effective coronavirus vaccines on the market, neither for animals or for humans. The biggest problem being that those that are available (primarily cats, dogs and cows) have a tendency to cause as many cases of the disease as they cure.

Your comment regarding GSK/Novartis is very pertinent - whereas previously there were dozens of vaccine manufacturers amongst the major players, those parts are progressively being sold off and consolidated. In private medicine, vaccines are typically used as loss leaders to encourage clinics and practitioners to adopt the company's portfolio of other medicines (especially, these days, age-related treatments).

Retr0gamer

Except H1N1/SARS is a coronavirus and closely related to Covid19 and there is a vaccine for that. So that's nonsense.

ancapailldorcha

Mod: Take the Coronavirus vaccine discussion to the Coronavirus forum please.

Enzokk

The negotiations between Barnier and Frost started again yesterday for another session.

https://twitter.com/MichelBarnier/status/1259867513145430016?s=20

I guess there will be a press conference again from Barnier towards the end of the week and another roundup from Tony Connelly to look forward to at the weekend on what happened during the discussions.

GM228

Seems very appropriate, not just to COVID-19, but also all things Brexit related:-

https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1260542232425369601?s=19

listermint

Boris finally caught out I see.


https://mobile.twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1260662359833620482

"FULL STORY Boris Johnson’s government concedes Brexit will mean checks on goods going into Northern Ireland. Belfast, Warrenppint, Larne, He previously boasted that deal, which he agreed, meant no checks and businesses could put paperwork “in the bin” "

Joe_ Public

listermint wrote: »

Boris finally caught out I see.


https://mobile.twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1260662359833620482

"FULL STORY Boris Johnson’s government concedes Brexit will mean checks on goods going into Northern Ireland. Belfast, Warrenppint, Larne, He previously boasted that deal, which he agreed, meant no checks and businesses could put paperwork “in the bin” "

Guessing the eu will be getting its fine spanking new office in Belfast after all.

Headshot

listermint wrote: »

Boris finally caught out I see.


https://mobile.twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1260662359833620482

"FULL STORY Boris Johnson’s government concedes Brexit will mean checks on goods going into Northern Ireland. Belfast, Warrenppint, Larne, He previously boasted that deal, which he agreed, meant no checks and businesses could put paperwork “in the bin” "

What I would give to see Fosters face when she hears/reads this.

BonnieSituation

Headshot wrote: »

What I would give to see Fosters face when she hears/reads this.

She should already know this.

What you want to see is Sammy Wilson or Jeffery doing their best "no, nay, never" on morning Ireland tomorrow morning.

Charles Babbage

Headshot wrote: »

What I would give to see Fosters face when she hears/reads this.

She already knows this, but she wants to make sure that Boris is seen to having reneged on his word rather than the DUP agreeing to it.

Thargor

Thats the one where he looked down at the carpet and shuffled his feet and mumbled yes of course like a child when those NI businessmen cornered him and asked him to promise there would be no checks.

Enzokk

Seems like the UK Home Office has finally seen sense and started (I think) the process of enshrining the GFA provisions on citizenship in UK law, instead of fighting it.

Northern Ireland-born British and Irish win EU citizenship rights

All British and Irish citizens born in Northern Ireland will be be treated as EU citizens for immigration purposes, the government has announced after a landmark court case involving a Derry woman over the residency rights of her US-born husband.

The move is a major victory for Emma de Souza ending a three-year battle to be recognised by the UK home office as Irish, a right enshrined in the Good Friday Agreement (GFA).

I think this is however only until the end of the transition period, but like Emma de Souza tweeted if the UK Government confirmed this legal status, even if it is only temporary, it will have a hard time arguing that this shouldn't be the law permanently afterwards. Either way I believe this is great news for her case and the fight she has had to fight for her rights as it is agreed under the GFA.

Edit: As I thought I read, her statement confirms that this is only temporary and they are still fighting the Home Office to have the rights enshrined in law as it is intended in the GFA.

https://twitter.com/EmmandJDeSouza/status/1260918174121410565?s=20

black forest

Enzokk wrote: »

Seems like the UK Home Office has finally seen sense and started (I think) the process of enshrining the GFA provisions on citizenship in UK law, instead of fighting it.

Northern Ireland-born British and Irish win EU citizenship rights

I think this is however only until the end of the transition period, but like Emma de Souza tweeted if the UK Government confirmed this legal status, even if it is only temporary, it will have a hard time arguing that this shouldn't be the law permanently afterwards. Either way I believe this is great news for her case and the fight she has had to fight for her rights as it is agreed under the GFA.

Edit: As I thought I read, her statement confirms that this is only temporary and they are still fighting the Home Office to have the rights enshrined in law as it is intended in the GFA.

https://twitter.com/EmmandJDeSouza/status/1260918174121410565?s=20

This could be seen in connection to the EUs measures taken today. GFA and the WA implementation are paramount to the EU. The gloves seem to come off...

https://twitter.com/jennifermerode/status/1260878611319570437?s=21


After all this haggling with a possible FTA or not and the implementation of the WA especially in NI the EU diplomats seem to prepare for a rough ride. The last sound bites suggest that they officially see the UK leaving without or a minimal deal and no transition. Of course unofficially they have seen that beforehand but would never admit that. Interesting to see the UK reaction to that.

They now have four months to reply before the EU takes the whole thing a step further. Still within the transition period. The pressure mounts up...

VinLieger

listermint wrote: »

Boris finally caught out I see.


https://mobile.twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1260662359833620482

"FULL STORY Boris Johnson’s government concedes Brexit will mean checks on goods going into Northern Ireland. Belfast, Warrenppint, Larne, He previously boasted that deal, which he agreed, meant no checks and businesses could put paperwork “in the bin” "

So it took how long for the inevitable and only logical solution to be agreed?

Peregrinus

VinLieger wrote: »

So it took how long for the inevitable and only logical solution to be agreed?

It was agreed last year. Since then Johnson has misrepresented the effects of the agreement for domestic consumption, which obviously the rest of the world takes note of, and knocks another couple of points off their regard for the UK and its good faith and dependabilty. But so far as I know he has never repudiated it directly to the EU.

Seth Brundle

black forest wrote: »

This could be seen in connection to the EUs measures taken today. GFA and the WA implementation are paramount to the EU. The gloves seem to come off...

https://twitter.com/jennifermerode/status/1260878611319570437?s=21


After all this haggling with a possible FTA or not and the implementation of the WA especially in NI the EU diplomats seem to prepare for a rough ride. The last sound bites suggest that they officially see the UK leaving without or a minimal deal and no transition. Of course unofficially they have seen that beforehand but would never admit that. Interesting to see the UK reaction to that.

They now have four months to reply before the EU takes the whole thing a step further. Still within the transition period. The pressure mounts up...

The UK looks to be throwing some mud back towards the EU...

Brexit: 'serious risk' EU will fail to protect UK citizens, says Gove
Letter to European commission says British residents living in bloc have raised concerns

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/may/15/brexit-serious-risk-eu-uk-citizens-michael-gove

Joe_ Public

Seth Brundle wrote: »

The UK looks to be throwing some mud back towards the EU...

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/may/15/brexit-serious-risk-eu-uk-citizens-michael-gove

I seem to remember how, in a previous age, successive british politicians saying the issue of uk or eu nationals rights would be one of the first things sorted and nobody would ever have to worry about being used as pawns amid political haggling. I also seem to recall Boris Johnson, not long after his ascension, criticising his predecessor for not addressing it even before brexit negotiations began. Yet here they are anyway. Very predictably so.

Seth Brundle

The Sun still keeping the embers going...

https://twitter.com/nicktolhurst/status/1261190335620886529

ArmaniJeanss

It's touching to see such government concern for UK citizens based in the EU.
Although perhaps allowing them to have voted in the referendum in the first place might make it seem more genuine.

Seth Brundle

Seth Brundle wrote: »

The Sun still keeping the embers going...

https://twitter.com/nicktolhurst/status/1261190335620886529

hmmm just seen this - apparently she doesn't practice what she preaches...

https://twitter.com/StevePeers/status/1261225597780537350

declanflynn

Seth Brundle wrote: »

hmmm just seen this - apparently she doesn't practice what she preaches...

https://twitter.com/StevePeers/status/1261225597780537350

Its mad what's going on in the uk, will these type of people be found out in the end or does the truth not matter any more

fash

declanflynn wrote: »

Its mad what's going on in the uk, will these type of people be found out in the end or does the truth not matter any more

More in-depth dig into the hypocrisy in this...

A thread Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺 (@nicktolhurst) Tweeted: This may sound strange but I’d like you to read this article in The Sun (you don’t have to click on their site).
It’s both a classic - &, if you dig a little deeper, far more revealing than you might at first think..

A thread. tweet

fash

declanflynn wrote: »

Its mad what's going on in the uk, will these type of people be found out in the end or does the truth not matter any more

More in-depth dig into the hypocrisy in this...

A thread Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺 (@nicktolhurst) Tweeted: This may sound strange but I’d like you to read this article in The Sun (you don’t have to click on their site).
It’s both a classic - &, if you dig a little deeper, far more revealing than you might at first think..

A thread. tweet

CrabRevolution

declanflynn wrote: »

Its mad what's going on in the uk, will these type of people be found out in the end or does the truth not matter any more

The truth stopped mattering long ago. Where Brexit clashes with facts, it's the facts that have to yield. If I may quote myself:

crabrevolution wrote: »

There's a great Halloween episode of the Simpsons where Bart is practically omnipotent and can bend reality to make anything he wants happen. Obviously everyone is in fear of Bart and seeks to please him. After a school test, his teacher explains to the class that the correct answers are whatever Bart wrote on his test: so the USA is now called "Bonerland" and was founded by "Some Guy" etc.

It's pretty much the same with brexit; where brexit conflicts with facts, it's the facts that have to yield.

So when a prominent brexiter like Francois states something that's patently wrong; tough. Luxembourg is now part of Germany and Jean Claude Junker can justifiably be called a Nazi.

RobMc59

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

It's touching to see such government concern for UK citizens based in the EU.
Although perhaps allowing them to have voted in the referendum in the first place might make it seem more genuine.

That`s not strictly true,they were allowed to vote unless they had lived abroad for more than fifteen years according to this link.
https://fullfact.org/europe/who-can-vote-eu-referendum/

Podge_irl

RobMc59 wrote: »

[/B]

That`s not strictly true,they were allowed to vote unless they had lived abroad for more than fifteen years according to this link.
https://fullfact.org/europe/who-can-vote-eu-referendum/

UK citizens entire franchise is for 15 years after they emigrate and they allow postal voting, which is considerably more than Ireland provides.
It was resident EU citizens who were disenfranchised in the referendum.