Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

Enzokk

Story about the negotiations for the past week. There are still differences, but I suspect there will be until the end whenever that is.

Minimal progress in EU-UK trade negotiations

The EU and the UK's chief negotiators have both cast doubt on a free trade agreement being concluded by the end of this year, following the latest round of negotiations.

In a statement, the UK's chief negotiator David Frost said very little progress has been made during a week of video conference talks between officials on both sides.

Mr Frost accused the EU of adopting an "ideological" approach to the negotiations, suggesting getting a deal by the end of the year was now at risk.

Mr Frost said: "I regret...that we made very little progress towards agreement on the most significant outstanding issues between us."

Michel Barnier, the EU's chief negotiator, said there were still wide gaps on the so-called level playing field issue and fisheries.

He told a news conference: "The firm position taken by EU member states is... that without a clear effective level playing field, a balanced fishing agreement, there will not be any possible agreement on our economic and trading partnership."

I think this is the first time where both sides are confirming there are wide differences between them. I always thought the UK was more optimistic in their assessment but if they are also talking about the wide gap, then I fear the worst will happen. Sir Ivan Rogers warned this may happen, where both sides dig in and talk around each other. They were able to get a deal with the WA, but the FTA is so much more complex and there is less time than the WA. We are surely headed for trouble here, right?

eire4

Enzokk wrote: »

Story about the negotiations for the past week. There are still differences, but I suspect there will be until the end whenever that is.

Minimal progress in EU-UK trade negotiations



I think this is the first time where both sides are confirming there are wide differences between them. I always thought the UK was more optimistic in their assessment but if they are also talking about the wide gap, then I fear the worst will happen. Sir Ivan Rogers warned this may happen, where both sides dig in and talk around each other. They were able to get a deal with the WA, but the FTA is so much more complex and there is less time than the WA. We are surely headed for trouble here, right?

It is hard to see how a trade agreement gets done in full before December 31. The equal playing field is something the EU is never going to walk away from so either they get on board with it or there is no free trade deal.

Sam Russell

eire4 wrote: »

It is hard to see how a trade agreement gets done in full before December 31. The equal playing field is something the EU is never going to walk away from so either they get on board with it or there is no free trade deal.

I think it will be BRINO or No Deal. There is not time for a comprehensive deal, even with a two year extension.

I think the De Souza case movement by the UK HO, together with the EU issuing proceedings re the Good Friday Agreement, and EU Citizens rights, and the UK Gov acceptance of Customs posts at NI ports all would suggest the BRINO outcome, but anything can happen.

Whatever happened to Mogg?

RobMc59

Sam Russell wrote: »

I think it will be BRINO or No Deal. There is not time for a comprehensive deal, even with a two year extension.

I think the De Souza case movement by the UK HO, together with the EU issuing proceedings re the Good Friday Agreement, and EU Citizens rights, and the UK Gov acceptance of Customs posts at NI ports all would suggest the BRINO outcome, but anything can happen.

Whatever happened to Mogg?

I`d definitely take brino but even brexiteers must think why did they force this in the first place to be infinitely worse off?

Lemming

RobMc59 wrote: »

I`d definitely take brino but even brexiteers must think why did they force this in the first place to be infinitely worse off?

That would require them to be either of sufficient calibre (morally or otherwise) to be able to either a) be capable of self-reflection on their actions & beliefs, and/or b) generally self-aware of what they say, do, and how it projects.

The current government circles do not fill me with much confidence in their ability to negotiate - in every sense of the word - their way out of a wet paper bag that's been drowned in water for several days (alas, sadly without them being in it also ... one can wish)

Sam Russell

Lemming wrote: »

That would require them to be either of sufficient calibre (morally or otherwise) to be able to either a) be capable of self-reflection on their actions & beliefs, and/or b) generally self-aware of what they say, do, and how it projects.

The current government circles do not fill me with much confidence in their ability to negotiate - in every sense of the word - their way out of a wet paper bag that's been drowned in water for several days (alas, sadly without them being in it also ... one can wish)

The problem with doctrinaire governments that shift further and further down the funnel of political purity by having successive purges is that they end with talents like Truss, Raab, and Patel whose combined political nous would not qualify them for a place on a lesser Irish County Council.

Add in the liar in chief and the outcome is inevitable.

fash

Sam Russell wrote: »

The problem with doctrinaire governments that shift further and further down the funnel of political purity by having successive purges is that they end with talents like Truss, Raab, and Patel whose combined political nous would not qualify them for a place on a lesser Irish County Council.

Add in the liar in chief and the outcome is inevitable.

With the WA, Johnson really needed something- something to sell to the population to prove he was a go-getter and different to May. The EU also were able to give him something he could work with - sufficiently complex that it was difficult for the population to understand, some bits he could openly lie about and where the lie couldn't be immediately and obviously "proven" to be a lie.

Now Johnson is working with ideological extremists, is less in immediate need of something reasonable and anyway the EU cannot give him something that isn't an obvious UK climb-down. I don't see the scope for a deal

Sam Russell

fash wrote: »

With the WA, Johnson really needed something- something to sell to the population to prove he was a go-getter and different to May. The EU also were able to give him something he could work with - sufficiently complex that it was difficult for the population to understand, some bits he could openly lie about and where the lie couldn't be immediately and obviously "proven" to be a lie.

Now Johnson is working with ideological extremists, is less in immediate need of something reasonable and anyway the EU cannot give him something that isn't an obvious UK climb-down. I don't see the scope for a deal

Well he will need a deal to prevent a shutdown at Dover, huge customs paperwork for industry, and JIT production requirements. Now ideological extremists tend to melt away when details are discussed and slogans no longer cut it. We do not hear the likes of Francois or his ilk shouting abour Covid - I wonder why.

When the leaves start falling from the trees and the French port workers have a try out strike, I think push will go shove, and the bleak midwinter beckons. The BRINO deal or no deal becomes the only two choices.

An extension now might be possible but come December, it will be too late. Even a two year extension will not be enough to overcome the bile and insults that by then will pollute the atmosphere between No Ten and Brussels.

Gove accusing the EU of not acting quickly enough looking after the interests of UK citizens residing in the EU. You could not make it up.

Are these politicians stupid or what?

[I know the answer!]

Runaways

It’s looking really grim for the U.K.

https://twitter.com/neildance/status/1261568821309177856

Leroy42

The mood music is very poor. Contrast the things being said about other possible trade deals, US, Japan etc, with the clear animosity between the two sides.

Both sides seem to be entrenched in their positions and that is not unexpected since this is a breakup not a building of a relationship.

Is there any point in an extension? The EU, with the WA, have got the most important bits already agreed, and IMO the UK are looking to create this breakdown in order to blame it for the brexit damage rather than have to admit that it was always a failure.

Couple that with the fall out of Covid and I think the UK want to push ahead with Brexit with the plan that any negatives will be blamed on a combination of it and EU intransigence.

Sam Russell

Leroy42 wrote: »

The mood music is very poor. Contrast the things being said about other possible trade deals, US, Japan etc, with the clear animosity between the two sides.

Both sides seem to be entrenched in their positions and that is not unexpected since this is a breakup not a building of a relationship.

Is there any point in an extension? The EU, with the WA, have got the most important bits already agreed, and IMO the UK are looking to create this breakdown in order to blame it for the brexit damage rather than have to admit that it was always a failure.

Couple that with the fall out of Covid and I think the UK want to push ahead with Brexit with the plan that any negatives will be blamed on a combination of it and EU intransigence.

'Level playing field' and 'comprehensive fishery agreement' are two items the EU will not compromise on - absolutely. The UK railed against the 'Irish border', 'Citizens rights', and 'the final bar bill' but in the end agreed all three to the EU's satisfaction (nearly).

The same should happen this time - the EU will prevail. However, you never can tell.

Well, the EU will prevail, but I'm not so sure about the UK.

looksee

It really doesn't matter who is blamed for anything in the UK. Of course blame will be laid on the EU, this is precisely the same in any community, blame someone else for your ills. The only people picking up on the blame game will be the residents of the country and those who actively choose to peer in and chew over what is being done.

Once the deed is done (completely, as against the half way situation at present) then Ireland would be wise to pay more attention to what is happening on an everyday basis in France and Germany and other European countries than fretting about what the Brits are saying about the EU. It may also be more to the point to familiarise ourselves with daily Scottish, Welsh and N. Irish events; England has a tough period of readjustment to deal with and maybe from our mental health perspective we should leave them to sort it themselves.

Joe_ Public

If i was in the uk, I'd be just as worried about what Liz Truss is getting up to on the other side. Here she is arguing that the virus makes it even more pressing that they start opening up their agriculture markets to the US profiteers. Her fulsome assurances that standards will be protected ring utterly hollow given the tories voted down an amendment last week, actually brought by one of their own, that would have enshrined those protections in legislation. Hilariously, Rishi Sunak voted for the amendment, then explained he voted in error, unable to master the new voting technology and press the right button - the man entrusted with looking after Britain's billions in a time of crisis!

Absolutely horrible time to be a UK farmer right now.

https://www.fwi.co.uk/news/farm-policy/liz-truss-us-trade-deal-will-benefit-uk-farmers

Zubeneschamali

Leroy42 wrote: »

Is there any point in an extension?

No. The Tory Brexiteers have a 5 year term ahead, the EU cannot wait them out.

No extension, no deal. Bring them to their knees.

fash

[quote="Joe_ Public;113455541"
Absolutely horrible time to be a UK farmer right now.
[/quote]
So many turkeys voted for their Christmas.

briany

I'm always unclear on this bit - if no deal, then will NI still have the option to continue to observe EU regulations, which upholds the spirit of the GFA and keeps the Irish border open, subject to an assembly vote every 4 years?

ancapailldorcha

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

No. The Tory Brexiteers have a 5 year term ahead, the EU cannot wait them out.

No extension, no deal. Bring them to their knees.

I don't get the point here. The UK is out. They have no capacity whatsoever to cause havoc in the EU. Their MEP's are gone. They have one shot to request a single extension or either one or two years. That's it.

A hard Brexit benefits noone. It's baffling that this is being treated in such a partial manner by the government.

J Mysterio

Well, well, well...

Coronavirus: ‘World has changed’ and harsh new immigration rules must be rethought, Tory MPs tell Boris Johnson

Former ministers among Conservatives warning pandemic’s ‘key workers’ – from the NHS and care to road haulage and retail – will be shut out by looming crackdown.

J Mysterio

J Mysterio wrote: »

Well, well, well...

Coronavirus: ‘World has changed’ and harsh new immigration rules must be rethought, Tory MPs tell Boris Johnson

Former ministers among Conservatives warning pandemic’s ‘key workers’ – from the NHS and care to road haulage and retail – will be shut out by looming crackdown.

With rising unemployment elsewhere and fewer jobs in retail and haulage, I expect to see a lot of government sponsored courses in the caregiving sector.

That may be true for many other countries as well, the rollback on globalisation will force governments to redeploy their own populations.

ancapailldorcha

Deleted User wrote: »

With rising unemployment elsewhere and fewer jobs in retail and haulage, I expect to see a lot of government sponsored courses in the caregiving sector.

That may be true for many other countries as well, the rollback on globalisation will force governments to redeploy their own populations.

Courses are going to fix squat.

The British care system has been gutted. Local authorities were stripped of 40% of their funding by the coalition and they're the ones in charge of social care.

Currently, old people are dumped into these homes and bled of any assets they may own. Then the local authority in question takes over. Staff are paid the absolute bare minimum. There's a reason these places are constantly recruiting and sticking up an artificial layer of bureaucracy is only going to make things worse.

Paying a reasonable wage for such demanding work and maybe ditching the daft idea that it's somehow "unskilled" would be a much better idea.

J Mysterio

The biggest scandal is the foreign healthcare staff have to pay huge amounts for the privilege of putting their lives at risk.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/priti-patel-nhs-fees-foreign-health-staff-immigration-surcharge-a9517356.html

The byline times reported that 97% of healthcare staff who have died are BAME.

Leroy42

briany wrote: »

I'm always unclear on this bit - if no deal, then will NI still have the option to continue to observe EU regulations, which upholds the spirit of the GFA and keeps the Irish border open, subject to an assembly vote every 4 years?

They don't have an option, it is already agreed.

In a few years, they can vote to get rid of the obligation, with all that entails.

NI will have to continue to observe all current, and future EU regulations, and the UK government has the responsibility to ensure that NI implements and maintains these standards.

Igotadose

J Mysterio wrote: »

Well, well, well...

Coronavirus: ‘World has changed’ and harsh new immigration rules must be rethought, Tory MPs tell Boris Johnson

Former ministers among Conservatives warning pandemic’s ‘key workers’ – from the NHS and care to road haulage and retail – will be shut out by looming crackdown.

Where's Labour organizing and getting them to walk out, all at once, for... a half day, to show the country what the impact will be?

Imagine all the caregivers, road haulage, binmen, etc. walk off for a half day in protest of Obersturmbannfuhrer Patel's new regulation...

Enzokk

David Frost has given the EU a dealine.

British negotiator gives EU two-week deadline to drop 'ideological' stance

A couple of things stand out to me,

In his statement at the end of the latest round of video-conference negotiations, Frost said: “We very much need a change in EU approach for the next round beginning on 1 June.

“In order to facilitate those discussions, we intend to make public all the UK draft legal texts during next week so that the EU’s member states and interested observers can see our approach in detail.

“The UK will continue to work hard to find an agreement, for as long as there is a constructive process in being, and continues to believe that this is possible.”

So the UK hasn't released their draft texts yet? How is the EU countries supposed to decide what they want from this when the UK hasn't released its draft texts yet for them to look at and see where common ground can be found? Off course you are going to have entrenched stances if you don't know what the other side is offering.

Then from Barnier,

Barnier accused the UK of trying to pick and choose parts of the EU single market, dismissing the government’s claims that it is seeking a typical free-trade agreement.

“Every time we meet they say they would be happy to have a Canada-style agreement, but at the same time ... they ask for far more from us than is available under the Canadian model,” Barnier said, citing the UK’s desire for “virtually full freedom of movement” for short visits, maintenance of “existing arrangements” on electricity interconnection, as well as “broad and widespread” recognition of professional qualifications to enable British lawyers, accountants and auditors to work in the EU.

“We are not going to bargain away our European values to the benefit of the British economy,” Barnier said. “Economic and trading fair play is not for sale. It is not ‘a nice to have’, it is ‘a must have’.”

I have heard Gove and other say this before, the UK is only looking for a deal similar to the one Canada got. But Barnier says this is not what the UK is asking for but instead it seems like they are asking for so much more than just a Canada deal. I guess we don't know because they haven't released the texts of their positions yet so we don't know exactly their positions are yet.

The meeting between Johnson and Von Der Leyen will be interesting. It will be here where a extension or no-deal will be decided. I actually don't know what will happen. Will Johnson be convinced that the EU will give at the last moment as they always do and will he insist on no extension?

ancapailldorcha

Enzokk wrote: »

So the UK hasn't released their draft texts yet? How is the EU countries supposed to decide what they want from this when the UK hasn't released its draft texts yet for them to look at and see where common ground can be found? Off course you are going to have entrenched stances if you don't know what the other side is offering.

Simple. They're not.

The UK has tried this brinkmanship strategy before. It ended up capitulation but it won't stop them trying again and, more importantly, showing the country that they can stand up to the EU who will of course be cast as the villain.

It won't make a blind bit of different to the EU which has negotiated numerous deals of its own.

Enzokk wrote: »

Then from Barnier,

I have heard Gove and other say this before, the UK is only looking for a deal similar to the one Canada got. But Barnier says this is not what the UK is asking for but instead it seems like they are asking for so much more than just a Canada deal. I guess we don't know because they haven't released the texts of their positions yet so we don't know exactly their positions are yet.

The meeting between Johnson and Von Der Leyen will be interesting. It will be here where a extension or no-deal will be decided. I actually don't know what will happen. Will Johnson be convinced that the EU will give at the last moment as they always do and will he insist on no extension?

The EU has always been open about what the UK can have. If it wants more access to the single market then this comes with the rules and regulations that make the single market work. We knew this pre-referendum.

The "ideological stance" being adopted by the EU is simply its refusal to carve itself up simply to prevent the Brexiters humiliating themselves again.

The meeting between Johnson and Von Der Leyen will be crucial to getting an idea of what happens next. There'll be no posturing behind closed doors. Rather, I'm hoping that Johnson will see what's possible and decide on the least economically damaging course of action for the sake of this country.

Nody

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

The meeting between Johnson and Von Der Leyen will be crucial to getting an idea of what happens next. There'll be no posturing behind closed doors. Rather, I'm hoping that Johnson will see what's possible and decide on the least economically damaging course of action for the sake of this country.

I think you're way way to optimistic here; remember as far as Brexiteers are concerned there is nothing odd in what they are asking. In their world EU needs them more and will bend over for them and give them everything. As an outsider we're sitting here double Picard facepalms at their stupidity but in their world that's the reality. Hence I'd not only expect more posturing (and for them it's not posturing) but more BS to be leaked on how EU are giving in on everything to the British press before EU gets a chance to correct them.

ancapailldorcha

Nody wrote: »

I think you're way way to optimistic here; remember as far as Brexiteers are concerned there is nothing odd in what they are asking. In their world EU needs them more and will bend over for them and give them everything. As an outsider we're sitting here double Picard facepalms at their stupidity but in their world that's the reality. Hence I'd not only expect more posturing (and for them it's not posturing) but more BS to be leaked on how EU are giving in on everything to the British press before EU gets a chance to correct them.

I'm not. These meetings are conducted behind closed doors. There'll be the conventional conference afterwards where both sides say that they achieved a lot, found it constructive, etc. The papers will do their usual whining, moaning and lying but this meeting is going to be important and will provide some degree of resolution on the future relationship between London and Brussels. Remember when Johnson agreed to a sea border despite assuring the DUP in 2018 that he would not tolerate Northern Ireland becoming a vassal state of Brussels and the papers said nothing? They've been supporting the Conservatives too long to change the habit of a lifetime. FPTP means that unless they decide they like Keir, something which seems unlikely but vaguely possibly in my opinion then they'll continue to propagandise on Johnson's behalf.

What a certain segment of the British public have never realised and still do not realise is that they're not the centre of Europe. The EU is completely immune to the posturing of their Caribbean-based newspapers and non-domiciled owners. It possesses significant experience in thrashing out trade deals and it'll be the civil servants, sherpas and EU commissioners who do the actual work. All Johnson has to do is spin it in such a manner as suits him while continuing to demonise the Labour party for wanting to overturn Brexit (which is why Starmer has been quiet about the extension IMO). If the press turn on him, that opens the door for a Labour PM and nobody on the right wants that.

Leroy42

Isn't the deadline for requesting an extension in June?

Isn't that why Frost is demanding this deadline. It is not because they are actually expecting anything from EU, it is to give them the excuse for making the request.

It will be because the EU have finally moved and now real work can begin so they need more time.

Throw in some stuff about Covid and you are all set.

Joe_ Public

Quote:
In his statement at the end of the latest round of video-conference negotiations, Frost said: “We very much need a change in EU approach for the next round beginning on 1 June.

“In order to facilitate those discussions, we intend to make public all the UK draft legal texts during next week so that the EU’s member states and interested observers can see our approach in detail.

“The UK will continue to work hard to find an agreement, for as long as there is a constructive process in being, and continues to believe that this is possible.”


This all sounds a bit disingenuous. Why only make the draft documents public next week? Why wasnt the commission allowed to pass them on to the member states before now? Surely that would have facilitated the discussions and helped the process along. It's like they're creating this impression where they're being hugely open and transparent whereas the reality is somewhat different.

A Dub in Glasgo

Looks like the Tories have tired of COVID-19, from The Sunday Times. It is ludicrous to not request an extension now.... looks like we are back to No Deal

Ministers move coronavirus teams back to no‑deal Brexit planning
Civil servants dealing with the virus have been redeployed, but a new poll finds 49% of leave voters want more EU talks

Britain has increased planning for a no-deal Brexit as senior government figures said the UK was preparing to “walk away” from trade talks with Brussels in the next month unless the EU gives ground.

The government’s XO (exit operations) no-deal planning committee, chaired by Michael Gove, met twice in one week at the start of May and senior officials say it will now sit regularly to prepare for the prospect that no trade deal is struck.

In a clear signal of intent, civil servants who had been moved to deal with the coronavirus crisis have been sent back to work full-time on no-deal preparations.

“XO is moving to a more regular rhythm over the next week or so,” a source said.

David Frost, Britain’s chief negotiator, told the cabinet on Thursday that Britain needed to prepare for an Australian-style departure, the government’s code for trading on World Trade Organisation terms, from January.

The UK legally left the EU at the end of January but is locked in a transition period until December 31. Boris Johnson and his aides have repeatedly made clear that they will not seek an extension to this deadline and Frost told ministers last week that the EU was finally “absolutely clear that we will not extend”.

Last week a third round of talks between Frost and Michel Barnier, the EU’s negotiator, ended in deadlock as the UK would not accept EU demands for a level playing field that would bind Britain into EU regulations in perpetuity.

This week the UK will publish legal texts showing that the government is only demanding terms already offered to countries such as South Korea or Norway. But EU officials insist Britain’s size and proximity to the union means it needs to accept more European regulations.

Unless the EU changes tack, the UK is prepared to walk away from the talks, a senior No 10 figure privately revealed.

Under one proposal, Frost could play “bad cop”, leaving Johnson to swoop in as “good cop” later in the year to secure a deal. A cabinet minister said: “Boris told us he still thinks there will be a deal.”

But for the first time senior officials in Brussels — who have previously doubted that Britain would seek no-deal — believe that is the most likely outcome.

One senior EU official said there was “no political electricity” around the talks, and added: “I think that this government may indeed want to go for no deal. It’s politically not unattractive for a critical mass within this cabinet.”

The source suggested that Frost might be “more interested in a political career” or in “grandstanding than finding a solution”. He added: “If nothing moves then I suppose that both sides will go to no-deal planning.”

That outcome would not be popular with voters, according to a new poll which found that even 49% of leave voters back an extension to the transition period. Of those leave voters who want a delay, 57% said the government should extend the period by up to a year, while 43% said it should be extended indefinitely. The polling, commissioned by the cross-party pro-EU campaign group Best for Britain and Hope not Hate, reveals that among Conservative voters 48% support an extension to the transition period. Overall, 66% of people from all parties are in favour of a delay.

Naomi Smith, the chief executive of Best for Britain, described the government’s “extreme stance” on the issue as “deeply worrying”. She said: “The views of small-‘c’ conservative voters in our data is telling. It’s patronising to suggest they would punish the government at the ballot box for prioritising the country’s health over an arbitrary exit date.”

The former Tory cabinet ministers Lord Heseltine, Dominic Grieve and Stephen Dorrell united yesterday to call on the government to extend the transition period. They have each recorded video messages for the European Movement.