Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

Igotadose

"Australian-style departure?" WTAF? Australia's never been a member. How can it have departed?

What's departed long ago is intelligence and competence in HMG. Between no-deal and Covid, UK will be the 'sick man of Europe' for a generation at least.

fly_agaric

Enzokk wrote: »

I have heard Gove and other say this before, the UK is only looking for a deal similar to the one Canada got. But Barnier says this is not what the UK is asking for but instead it seems like they are asking for so much more than just a Canada deal. I guess we don't know because they haven't released the texts of their positions yet so we don't know exactly their positions are yet.

I suppose I'm biased, but I'd tend to believe the people who haven't been caught lying quite so often.

The EU side have to be more open than the UK about what is going on because of the nature of the EU. They have to report everything back to all the members anyway, if they told a pack of lies about the state of play and what they are hearing from the UK it would emerge quickly from somewhere anyway.

The people who have come to political power in the UK at the moment IMO have a really deep belief in the powers of propaganda + spin and the importance of telling some lies when necessary in (what they see as) the public interest (as well as their own interests of course!).

Sam Russell

Igotadose wrote: »

"Australian-style departure?" WTAF? Australia's never been a member. How can it have departed?

What's departed long ago is intelligence and competence in HMG. Between no-deal and Covid, UK will be the 'sick man of Europe' for a generation at least.

I think they have confused the EU with Eurovision - it is that time of year for the song contest - and Australia, for some unaccountable reason, is a contestant in that particular circus.

I think there is another Null Point coming for the UK.

ancapailldorcha

Igotadose wrote: »

"Australian-style departure?" WTAF? Australia's never been a member. How can it have departed?

What's departed long ago is intelligence and competence in HMG. Between no-deal and Covid, UK will be the 'sick man of Europe' for a generation at least.

It's a euphemism for a no deal Brexit. The other is "WTO Brexit". Brexiters like Australia for obvious reasons so packaging it this way makes perfect sense.

Igotadose

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

It's a euphemism for a no deal Brexit. The other is "WTO Brexit". Brexiters like Australia for obvious reasons so packaging it this way makes perfect sense.

I know that; euphemism is of course, a polite way to say 'Lie.' Which is all it is. Given the lack of ambient intelligence in most western countries these days, it's good to point out, out-and-out lies, though.

UK are so screwed. Nothing's changed since 2016, just going to be much worse than if Covid hadn't happened.

On a good note, UK property prices will likely plunge. Be nice to buy a castle or two with some otherwise valueless pounds.

johnnyskeleton

Also worth noting that the EU and Australia already have a trade framework, with a view to ultimately agreeing a Free Trade Agreement:

https://eeas.europa.eu/sites/eeas/files/partnership_framework2009eu_en.pdf

So Australia, in working bona fides towards a trade agreement, are a step ahead of the UK. Also worth noting, as an aside, that a lot of the framework discusses environmental, data and security issues, the things that the Brexiteers object most strenuously to being in the EU/UK deal.

Enzokk

Here is the Michel Barnier remarks after the last round of negotiations,

Remarks by Michel Barnier following Round 3 of negotiations for a new partnership between the European Union and the United Kingdom

Not very encouraging as we have read before from the journalists,

Ladies and gentlemen,

I am happy to be with you again, even if still only virtually.

I hope that you and your friends and families are as well as can be, in these times that remain difficult and continue to require our individual and collective mobilisation.

Three weeks ago, at the end of our second negotiation round on our future partnership with the United Kingdom, I told you that the EU's objective was to move forward – in parallel – on all topics of negotiation, including the most difficult ones.

This week, we continued to work with David Frost and the two negotiating teams that I wish to thank.

These discussions were underpinned by new text proposals sent by the UK that now cover nearly all of the topics covered by our own draft legal text published on 18 March.

We continue to hope that the UK will make its own texts public shortly so that we can share them with the Member States and the European Parliament.

Our discussions enabled us to clarify a number of issues in areas such as trade in goods, transport or the UK's participation in future programmes of the Union.

We were also, at last, able to initiate the beginnings of a dialogue on fisheries, even if our positions remain very far apart.

That said, with the exception of some modest overtures, we failed to make any progress on any of the other more difficult topics.

It goes on to detail where progress remains tough. It seems very much that the message from the EU is that the UK wants more than any other country, while claiming to only want what any other country has gotten,

1/ First, our ambition is still to achieve a free trade agreement, with no tariffs or quotas on any goods.

This would be a first in the history of EU FTAs.

So there again, the seeds are sown that the deal the UK wants isn't only a Canada deal but so much more. And if you want more then you will need to give up some.

I did find it interesting that progress has been made in clarifying where the UK will still participate in EU programmes, my bold emphasis in the quote. We have not seen any details of this at all and I would be curious which programmes the UK wants to still participate in. This obviously, will mean contributions that the UK will still pay to the EU, apart from the WA.

Still going through the whole text and this is only the start of the remarks so far.

Leroy42

David Davis was on some show a while back and stated that they were simply looking for what other countries had. They want the Canada deal, with parts of Japan, parts of Norway, parts of Iceland.

That is what they mean they they talk about other countries. It is not one other country, but any and all of them. They of course leave out the different things that those countries each gave back to the EU as part of the their particular deal

serfboard

Leroy42 wrote: »

David Davis was on some show a while back and stated that they were simply looking for what other countries had. They want the Canada deal, with parts of Japan, parts of Norway, parts of Iceland.

That is what they mean they they talk about other countries. It is not one other country, but any and all of them. They of course leave out the different things that those countries each gave back to the EU as part of the their particular deal

Fairly easy for the EU to respond to that, though, as follows:

"To get A, Canada conceeded B,
To get C, Japan conceeded D", etc.

And finish it off with, "Since the UK isn't willing to concede anything, it doesn't get anything".

Leroy42

serfboard wrote: »

Fairly easy for the EU to respond to that, though, as follows:

"To get A, Canada conceeded B,
To get C, Japan conceeded D", etc.

And finish it off with, "Since the UK isn't willing to concede anything, it doesn't get anything".

And they have, and that is what is annoying the UK and lead Frost to come out last week week and state that the EU needs to change its position.

The UK are faced with a number of choices, each with costs and payoffs, and they would much prefer to only deal with the payoffs and not the costs.

Ths issue does not lie with the EU, rather the UK, having decided that being part of club they couldn't get their way, now cannot understand how being outside the club they cannot get their way.

serfboard

serfboard wrote: »

Fairly easy for the EU to respond to that, though, as follows:

"To get A, Canada conceeded B,
To get C, Japan conceeded D", etc.

And finish it off with, "Since the UK isn't willing to concede anything, it doesn't get anything".

I imagine a lot of the trade offs were nebulous.
I think that would only encourage more a la carte thinking from the UK.

If say Japan opened its agricultural market to European beef and the uk tried to make an equivalence, is that the same value to us?
New market vs market we already have, how would it relate to the level playing field etc.

serfboard

Leroy42 wrote: »

the UK, having decided that being part of club they couldn't get their way, now cannot understand how being outside the club they cannot get their way.

A great summation of the UK's thinking.

Roanmore

It's when you see headlines like this you realise where the anti EU rhetoric came from, this is the national broadcaster.

https://twitter.com/BBCWorld/status/1261231567197921281

The BBC lead with a headline saying that in Germany if you burn the EU flag you can get 3 years in jail.
Of course that's not the true story, it's any national flag and was introduced because of the burning of the Israeli flag in Germany.

They later changed the headline to correct the story but of course the Brexit brigade had already jumped on the story.

lawred2

Roanmore wrote: »

It's when you see headlines like this you realise where the anti EU rhetoric came from, this is the national broadcaster.

https://twitter.com/BBCWorld/status/1261231567197921281

The BBC lead with a headline saying that in Germany if you burn the EU flag you can get 3 years in jail.
Of course that's not the true story, it's any national flag and was introduced because of the burning of the Israeli flag in Germany.

They later changed the headline to correct the story but of course the Brexit brigade had already jumped on the story.

Not much of a change to the headline

"Burning EU and other flags"

and other flags? Good lord... Surely the amendment should have been "burning flags"

Scroll to the bottom of the page and you get "Why you can trust BBC news"

Going Strong

lawred2 wrote: »

Not much of a change to the headline

"Burning EU and other flags"

and other flags? Good lord... Surely the amendment should have been "burning flags"

Scroll to the bottom of the page and you get "Why you can trust BBC news"

I've never trusted them since the Greek Debt Crisis. I watched their report on it alongside one from RTE.


Two national broadcasters, two completely different approaches.


RTE, interviewed a Greek Economics Professor in Athens as well as various EU experts.


BBC, interviews Daniel Hannan and never challenges him. Then the reporter goes to a Greek restaurant, does a load of tomfoolery with various Greek dishes while spouting "Some people say that.. " unattributed dog poop and finishes by smashing a load of plates.



On Newsnight, News-Fecking-Night, their alleged flagship current affairs programme.




Screw them, they deserve everything the Tories are going to do to them.

Enzokk

lawred2 wrote: »

Not much of a change to the headline

"Burning EU and other flags"

and other flags? Good lord... Surely the amendment should have been "burning flags"

Scroll to the bottom of the page and you get "Why you can trust BBC news"

The BBC is so weird. Its like its a bunch of individuals that are working there and you sometimes get headlines and misleading stories, but others times they are the impartial public broadcaster they want you to think they are. This headline and story is right out of the Daily Mail or Express examples. Why they would highlight that burning the EU flag is now punishable when it was brought in to stop people burning Israel flags is just weird.

Roanmore

Another in the “you couldn’t make it up category”

https://twitter.com/YorksBylines/status/1262335519037546496

Yorkshire farmers who apparently voted for Brexit and installed a whole load of Tory MPs ate now giving out about being sold out in a US / UK trade deal.

Some of the comments underneath are not very sympathetic

briany

Looks like UK farmers are about to become the new miners. Perhaps they can retrain, learn to code and get a job in the city, which they will use the earnings thereof to pay for that delicious Brazilian beef.

Sam Russell

GBP drifting again. I wonder is it anything to do with the current spat about negotiations. €1 = GBP 0.895

Remember, the Euro was IR£0.787564 at conversion. GBP was always higher.

Enzokk

So we keep chugging along the Brexit train tracks, everyday one step closer it seems to a "Australia style deal" as the UK puts in their legislation to become a more isolated and inward looking country.

https://twitter.com/pritipatel/status/1262430422954389504?s=20

If you wanted any reason why the PM will not censure his MP's when they spread far right lies on the opposition leader, it is to get what he wants. He doesn't get away with being a "closet liberal" and this being Cummings plan. This is all on Johnson. He is PM, he appointed the likes of Patel and Dorries and Braverman to their posts. There has been ample examples to show his true colours and those that doesn't see it is just in denial.

I am not sure what this means, but it seems to be new.

https://twitter.com/SkyScottBeasley/status/1262627736998359041?s=20

https://twitter.com/SkyScottBeasley/status/1262629381350076431?s=20

And in other EU news, I know it was pointed out on this thread before that the coronavirus has exposed the fragility within the EU as Italy was not happy and asking for financial help.

Berlin buckles on bonds in €500B Franco-German recovery plan

Coronavirus has claimed a new victim: German frugality.

Berlin dropped its longstanding resistance to common European bonds, as Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron agreed to a blueprint for a €500 billion recovery fund to help the countries hardest hit by the pandemic get back on their feet.

Under the plan, the recovery fund would be fully financed by debt issued by the EU and backed by all 27 members. The money would be distributed by the European Commission in the form of grants as part of the bloc’s normal budget and repaid over the long term by the EU.

While the proposal was welcomed by the European Commission, it would require the approval of all EU member countries — which promises to be a torturous process — to be realized. Countries such as Austria, the Netherlands and Finland, which share German traditions of parsimony, are likely to oppose the plan, or at least try to.

There are still a way to go, but this is far from the EU leaving its own members to suffer on their own due to the actions of the bigger members.

Enzokk

And for some humour on this thread,

https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/1262650339829915650?s=20

They are going to rescue Brexit. You just wait, and once they step in those cheese makers and wine producers will not be far behind.

Hermy

We’re ending free movement to open Britain up to the world.

If I didn't know any better I'd swear this was a parody account.

It's an easy comparison to make but it really is like something straight out of 1984.

lawred2

The dishonesty in it is depressing but not surprising... the UK was free to always do what it wanted with its borders for those from non EU countries. She's a horrid troll.

Nothing has changed.

lawred2

Hermy wrote: »

If I didn't know any better I'd swear this was a parody account.

It's an easy comparison to make but it really is like something straight out of 1984.

or 1930s Germany

weemcd

Hermy wrote: »

If I didn't know any better I'd swear this was a parody account.

It's an easy comparison to make but it really is like something straight out of 1984.

I only just read 1984 during lockdown and it was a quite fitting time for my first read. I was doing my state allocated 1 hour exercise then coming home to see politician after politician come on TV spouting lie after lie, then contradicting themselves 2 days later with the opposite. Positively Orwellian.

Joe_ Public

I guess now that they've the coronavirus completely sorted, they can get on with the really important stuff. The next time there's a health crisis, it'll be British born nurses and care workers putting their lives at risk to care for the elderly, that is if they can find enough of them willing to work for barely the minimum wage.

Sam Russell

Joe_ Public wrote: »

I guess now that they've the coronavirus completely sorted, they can get on with the really important stuff. The next time there's a health crisis, it'll be British born nurses and care workers putting their lives at risk to care for the elderly, that is if they can find enough of them willing to work for barely the minimum wage.

They will not have a shortage of volunteers for such work from all the unemployed auto workers from Swindon and Sunderland. Just a short course in how to don PPE and tie a bandage.

Leroy42

When is the supposed cut off for any request for an extension? Start or end of June? I think it is the end of June.

I say supposed, as I don't think that if the UK requested an extension as late of December that the EU would refuse.

But in terms of the timing, it means that the time for a decision is fast approaching. 6 weeks (if end of June) for both sides to agree. And whatever the EU wants, it really all falls to the UK. Do they opt for an extension or not?

That is the key decision that the UK government need to answer within the next 6 weeks.

All talk about Brexiteers, Remainers, GE elections results, WA etc all is ultimately irrelevant as this is the only issue that needs to be dealt with since everyone agrees that there is simply not enough time to get a full trade deal done especially given that the UK are looking for a unique deal.

So what are peoples opinions on what the UK will actually do (as opposed to what one thinks they should do!)

Joe_ Public

Cant see anyway the erg/hard brexiteers would let Johnson away with okaying an extension, even if he wanted to. They're already quietly seething over the lockdown not being lifted, no way i can see a mood for any further concessions.

The eu also has another deadline for fisheries to be agreed by end of june. Which seems highly unlikely given the uk hasn't even presented its draft legal text yet.

Going Strong

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Cant see anyway the erg/hard brexiteers would let Johnson away with okaying an extension, even if he wanted to. They're already quietly seething over the lockdown not being lifted, no way i can see a mood for any further concessions.

The eu also has another deadline for fisheries to be agreed by end of june. Which seems highly unlikely given the uk hasn't even presented its draft legal text yet.

It's quite the thing isn't it how pretty much the same bunch are pro-Brexit, dismissive of Climate Change and reckon Covid-19 "Is only a flu, everybody get back to work"


There's a thesis or three in teasing out the common strands there.


I was browsing some Gammon-y sites yesterday and, apparently, Michel Barnier's dismissal of the UK's "Canada + with all the trimmings, a cherry on top and more besides when we can think of them" is proof positive that the EU are rattled and will cave in to every UK demand any day now.


Oh, and UK farmers are a shower of inefficient subsidy-junkies who are hoarding lots of land that could be more productively used for housing estates so they're undeserving of any special consideration.