Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

Professor Moriarty

CelticRambler wrote: »

And between the rock and the hard place are, I believe, a lot of half-decent Tories who will come to the realisation that Johnson is the problem, not the solution. His (mis)handling of everything to do with the coronavirus outbreak coupled with a surgical dissection of his meaningless rhetoric by Starmer and a consequent shift in opinion poll data could (should) be enough for the true party faithful to decide that it's time for him to leave No.10

We've already seen how easily he can be manipulated - by the ERG, by Varadkar, by Macron - so it's no great leap to think that a posse of soft Brexiter Tories could manoeuvre him into another do or die situation.

Who are these soft Brexiter Tories? Can't see very many in the cabinet or on the backbenches.

Sam Russell

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Who are these soft Brexiter Tories? Can't see very many in the cabinet or on the backbenches.

Margaret Thatcher did not resign willingly, she was ejected by a palace revolt. Johnson will go when it is obvious he has lost the Tories significant support in the country. The GE gave them a large insurmountable majority in the HoC, but there are many other elections that will tell. Local election losses will lose them councils and this will mean growing cries from those councils for funding and this will increase to a crescendo that will be hard to resist.

The Covid19 mishandling has cost many lives, and comparisons with the rest of Europe will be made. The Tory Gov will be judged harshly. The 'heroes' of the NHS will be vociferous in condemnation of the shortcomings that caused those deaths. All this will cause street protests resulting in a 'winter of discontent' that did for James Callaghan and just as the Poll Tax riots did for Thatcher. The fallout from a No Deal Brexit will do for Johnson.

A new leader means a new beginning.

Joe_ Public

Bambi wrote: »

He has an unassailable majority for the next four years, he's made a complete and utter balls of the coronovirus emergency, he's been calmly manhandled by Starmer in Leaders Questions (albeit recovering from a bad dose and without his sizeable squad of cheerleaders behind him) and he's still ahead in the polls both as a party and as a leader. I wouldnt get too excited.

The Reality is that Johnson is not the problem for Britain, he's is the result of the problem.

But would brexit have ever been delivered without Johnson's critical support? I very much doubt it. They have much wider problems but he's definitely a quite big part of it in my book, the way - with the aid of his personal steve bannon - he was able to forge a powerful alliance between the soft and hard elements of his party and populace in general. He looks unassailable at present but i wouldnt be shocked to see that change. The tories love their leaders when they are winning but can turn very quickly as soon as the veneer starts to slip. They did with thatcher and they can do it with Johnson too.

Professor Moriarty

Sam Russell wrote: »

Margaret Thatcher did not resign willingly, she was ejected by a palace revolt. Johnson will go when it is obvious he has lost the Tories significant support in the country. The GE gave them a large insurmountable majority in the HoC, but there are many other elections that will tell. Local election losses will lose them councils and this will mean growing cries from those councils for funding and this will increase to a crescendo that will be hard to resist.

The Covid19 mishandling has cost many lives, and comparisons with the rest of Europe will be made. The Tory Gov will be judged harshly. The 'heroes' of the NHS will be vociferous in condemnation of the shortcomings that caused those deaths. All this will cause street protests resulting in a 'winter of discontent' that did for James Callaghan and just as the Poll Tax riots did for Thatcher. The fallout from a No Deal Brexit will do for Johnson.

A new leader means a new beginning.

His replacement could be worse. You would have the likes of Gove, Sunak, Hancock and Raab in the running. The large majority of Tory members and MPs are right wing Brexiteers who won't be voting for a soft Brexiteer.

CelticRambler

Bambi wrote: »

He has an unassailable majority for the next four years ...

Firstly, it's the Tory party - not Johnson - that has the unassailable majority; and secondly, no majority is unassailable in a functioning democracy.

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Who are these soft Brexiter Tories? Can't see very many in the cabinet or on the backbenches.

I'm not saying these Tories are - present tense - declared soft Brexiters; I'm saying that from what I know of Tory MPs (with some of whom I've had arm's length contact) they're not idiots and they're not anywhere near as rabidly Eurosceptic-Americophilic as they're made out to be - other than the ERG types.

So come the autumn, with the EU giving Britain a cold, hard, unblinking stare, and an electorate still reeling from Pandemic 1.0, possibly getting smacked by Pandemic 2.0, there will be a heck of a lot of reasons for pushing Johnson into an extension request ... or over the cliff on his own if that seems warranted.

Sam Russell

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

His replacement could be worse. You would have the likes of Gove, Sunak, Hancock and Raab in the running. The large majority of Tory members and MPs are right wing Brexiteers who won't be voting for a soft Brexiteer.

Yes indeed, the replacement could well be worse, but if the riots get worse and there is blood in the streets, then the replacement wont last long either.

Do not forget the Tories do not control Scotland, and Nicola is a very good and, adept politician, who will use every possible bump in the road for Johnson and the Nasty Party to further he goal of an independent Scotland.

If there is a no-deal and it impinges badly on NI, as it will, then NI might kick off too.

It could all go pear shaped in no time. And there is nothing as rotten as a rotten pear.

Headless chickens come to mind to describe the current crowd.

Dyr

CelticRambler wrote: »

Firstly, it's the Tory party - not Johnson - that has the unassailable majority; and secondly, no majority is unassailable in a functioning democracy.

You don't seem to understand, its pretty hard to oust a PM who has a huge number of MPs, 180 plus Tory MPs would need to vote against Johnson in a no confidence vote, its possible but its very unlikley and if you dont think so stick some money on it with Paddy Power cos they'll give you great odds.

We can also safely say his majority unassailable in British Parliamentary terms, again, check with Paddy Power.


Some of the carry on in this thread is like scenes from the Fuhrer Bunker, delusional stuff, hoping some Deus Ex Machina will keep the UK in the EU.

Enzokk

Sam Russell wrote: »

Yes indeed, the replacement could well be worse, but if the riots get worse and there is blood in the streets, then the replacement wont last long either.

Do not forget the Tories do not control Scotland, and Nicola is a very good and, adept politician, who will use every possible bump in the road for Johnson and the Nasty Party to further he goal of an independent Scotland.

If there is a no-deal and it impinges badly on NI, as it will, then NI might kick off too.

It could all go pear shaped in no time. And there is nothing as rotten as a rotten pear.

Headless chickens come to mind to describe the current crowd.

Seeing as we are speculating about Johnson getting removed due to no-deal on top of coronavirus, I see someone like Hunt becoming PM instead of anyone in the cabinet right now. Those in cabinet with Johnson would be tainted with both coronavirus and no-deal Brexit as they allowed it to happen. Brexit is from the right of the Conservative Party so you would guess that anyone who fits right in there would be tainted by Brexit and would rule out becoming leader in the short term as the consequences of Brexit spreads.

Enzokk

Bambi wrote: »

You don't seem to understand, its pretty hard to oust a PM who has a huge number of MPs, 180 plus Tory MPs would need to vote against Johnson in a no confidence vote, its possible but its very unlikley and if you dont think so stick some money on it with Paddy Power cos they'll give you great odds.

We can also safely say his majority unassailable in British Parliamentary terms, again, check with Paddy Power.


Some of the carry on in this thread is like scenes from the Fuhrer Bunker, delusional stuff, hoping some Deus Ex Machina will keep the UK in the EU.

Erm, did you not get the memo? The UK is not part of the EU any longer. MP's are flexible in their loyalty and if those 40 or so new MPs they won from Labour start seeing their constituents becoming angry because they are suffering due to Brexit, I don't know how long they will stay scared of Johnson kicking them out of the party if they will lose their seat in the next election any way.

Also, Thatcher won 375 seats in the 1987 election, ten more than Johnson. Didn't seem to help her job prospects.

Roanmore

Enzokk wrote: »

Erm, did you not get the memo? The UK is not part of the EU any longer. MP's are flexible in their loyalty and if those 40 or so new MPs they won from Labour start seeing their constituents becoming angry because they are suffering due to Brexit, I don't know how long they will stay scared of Johnson kicking them out of the party if they will lose their seat in the next election any way.

Also, Thatcher won 375 seats in the 1987 election, ten more than Johnson. Didn't seem to help her job prospects.

It was her own party brought her down as well so the majority was not the issue.

I saw a petition on Twitter for to protect British Farmers in any trade deal with US, there wasn’t one reply in support of the farmers although some people signed it to protect food standards.

Imreoir2

Bambi wrote: »

You don't seem to understand, its pretty hard to oust a PM who has a huge number of MPs, 180 plus Tory MPs would need to vote against Johnson in a no confidence vote, its possible but its very unlikley and if you dont think so stick some money on it with Paddy Power cos they'll give you great odds.

We can also safely say his majority unassailable in British Parliamentary terms, again, check with Paddy Power.


Some of the carry on in this thread is like scenes from the Fuhrer Bunker, delusional stuff, hoping some Deus Ex Machina will keep the UK in the EU.

The UK is gone and won't be coming back any time soon. The UK position suggests that they will, in due course, swan dive off the cliff hoping they learn to fly on the way down. The UK are in for at least a few years of economic hardship and social unrest. We will need to work hard to make sure it does not spill over here or drag the north back into conflict. If the UK default into no-deal at the end of this year, our government will need to prepare for the high possibility of an independant Scotland and a border poll in NI within the next five years.

ancapailldorcha

Bambi wrote: »

You don't seem to understand, its pretty hard to oust a PM who has a huge number of MPs, 180 plus Tory MPs would need to vote against Johnson in a no confidence vote, its possible but its very unlikley and if you dont think so stick some money on it with Paddy Power cos they'll give you great odds.

We can also safely say his majority unassailable in British Parliamentary terms, again, check with Paddy Power.

Not necessarily.

Many of the new MP's are not Tories in the traditional sense. There are ironically enough, diverse groups ideologically in the party from dyed-in-the-wool social conservatives like Jacob Rees-Mogg, one nation Tories. market liberals and libertarians.

It seems likely that Johnson will have to compromise in some way to "Get Brexit done". We don't know what's going to happen. The next step is wether or not Johnson requests the one-off extension in June.

MP's from rural backgrounds are in for a rough ride if they press ahead to allow mass produced, chemical ridden American slop to bankrupt their farmers while putting up barriers to the market that takes 66% of British fish.

Bambi wrote: »

Some of the carry on in this thread is like scenes from the Fuhrer Bunker, delusional stuff, hoping some Deus Ex Machina will keep the UK in the EU.

The UK has left the EU. Why some people insist on pretending that this is somehow not the case is beyond me and it's the Brexiters who keep pushing this pretense.

Professor Moriarty

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Not necessarily.

Many of the new MP's are not Tories in the traditional sense. There are ironically enough, diverse groups ideologically in the party from dyed-in-the-wool social conservatives like Jacob Rees-Mogg, one nation Tories. market liberals and libertarians.

It seems likely that Johnson will have to compromise in some way to "Get Brexit done". We don't know what's going to happen. The next step is wether or not Johnson requests the one-off extension in June.

MP's from rural backgrounds are in for a rough ride if they press ahead to allow mass produced, chemical ridden American slop to bankrupt their farmers while putting up barriers to the market that takes 66% of British fish.



The UK has left the EU. Why some people insist on pretending that this is somehow not the case is beyond me and it's the Brexiters who keep pushing this pretense.

The One Nation cohort has been decimated. They've either been voted out, resigned, left the party or changed their colours to suit the new Brexiteer narrative. The market liberals and libertarians very much tend to be Brexiteers. So there is a much smaller soft Brexit wing in the Tory party today. Indeed, some Brexiteer rural Tory MPs might be in for a rough ride once the impact of a no-deal Brexit kicks in, but the ship will have sailed by then.

ancapailldorcha

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The One Nation cohort has been decimated. They've either been voted out, resigned, left the party or changed their colours to suit the new Brexiteer narrative. The market liberals and libertarians very much tend to be Brexiteers. So there is a much smaller soft Brexit wing in the Tory party today. Indeed, some Brexiteer rural Tory MPs might be in for a rough ride once the impact of a no-deal Brexit kicks in, but the ship will have sailed by then.

I disagree. I think the market liberals would have voted remain. I'm not saying they were particularly avid or anything, just that the centre-right position would have been remain.

The libertarians, nationalists and social conservatives are all out and out leavers, no question.

The one nation cohort has just gone dormant. The current cabinet is clearly being crafted with loyalty to Johnson in mind, not skill or diversity of opinion. There'll no doubt be one nation MP's scattered about but they won't be getting a platform or anything like that for quite some time.

Professor Moriarty

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I disagree. I think the market liberals would have voted remain. I'm not saying they were particularly avid or anything, just that the centre-right position would have been remain.

The libertarians, nationalists and social conservatives are all out and out leavers, no question.

The one nation cohort has just gone dormant. The current cabinet is clearly being crafted with loyalty to Johnson in mind, not skill or diversity of opinion. There'll no doubt be one nation MP's scattered about but they won't be getting a platform or anything like that for quite some time.

I just don't think that a sufficient number of bona fide One Nation Tories remains to make a difference. I take your point about market liberals but that cohort is divided. For instance, Javid was a staunch supporter of Remain whereas Sunak is a Brexiteer.

fash

CelticRambler wrote: »

, there will be a heck of a lot of reasons for pushing Johnson into an extension request ... or over the cliff on his own if that seems warranted.

Important reasons not to extend is that it pushes the post leaving collapse closer to the next election and fails to hide it in the Covid recession. Better from a political perspective to take the hit now and hope you can b*******t your way at the next election

ancapailldorcha

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I just don't think that a sufficient number of bona fide One Nation Tories remains to make a difference. I take your point about market liberals but that cohort is divided. For instance, Javid was a staunch supporter of Remain whereas Sunak is a Brexiteer.

Of course but I'm simply saying that the Conservatives are not as united as one might think. They have a majority, sure and they're being lead by someone who travels ideologically light and appoints people based primarily on loyalty and dependability.

One nation Tories are not going to rock the boat or bring down the government by themselves but this thing is far from done. I don't know if there's any way to extend the negotiating period if Johnson does not do so by the end of this month but at least some of the 365 Conservative MP's, especially some of those in rural and northern communities are going to baulk at a no deal Brexit.

Professor Moriarty

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Of course but I'm simply saying that the Conservatives are not as united as one might think. They have a majority, sure and they're being lead by someone who travels ideologically light and appoints people based primarily on loyalty and dependability.

One nation Tories are not going to rock the boat or bring down the government by themselves but this thing is far from done. I don't know if there's any way to extend the negotiating period if Johnson does not do so by the end of this month but at least some of the 365 Conservative MP's, especially some of those in rural and northern communities are going to baulk at a no deal Brexit.

I think it will come down to party loyalty and staying in power versus doing the right thing for your country. The ERG MPs see any form of a Brexit as doing the right thing for their country so they can be ignored. There are some pragmatists who might well do the right thing for their country - Javid, Gauke, Clark, Green, Afolami etc. - who may well choose country before party. It depends on how many of them there are. Plus you need a united Labour party. Almost everyone else in the HoC would be on board. But if the numbers got very tight....*cough* DUP *cough*...

Enzokk

When Johnson expelled Ken Clarke from the Conservative Party for defying him he sent the message to his MP's, tow the line or be gone. It was a gamble that paid off for him as he won a majority, but once they see his power waning then the threat of him expelling them goes away as well.

So he still has a lot of power, but if he continues to struggle against Starmer and the party keeps losing support in the polls he loses the power and he cannot call a new election to get it back again if he starts expelling MP's. Fascinating viewing from the outside.

Enzokk

Business Insider has a story that retailers are considering pulling out of NI due to extra checks between NI and the UK.

Brexit is forcing major retailers to consider pulling out of Northern Ireland

Major retailers are considering pulling out of Northern Ireland due to the increased cost of trading with the rest of the UK as a result of planned new Brexit border checks, multiple industry figures have told Business Insider.

Boris Johnson's government is due to implement new checks on trade crossing the Irish sea once the UK leaves the European Single Market and the Customs Union at the end of the Brexit transition period at the end of December.

A number of major retailers, including one of the UK's most prominent supermarkets, are considering pulling out of Northern Ireland amid fears that new costs could render them financially unviable, multiple senior business figures have told Business Insider.

I didn't really read the article and thought it meant in a Australia-EU style deal but it seems to me they are saying that even in a deal that would mean extra checks they would consider withdrawing from the NI market.

CelticRambler

fash wrote: »

Important reasons not to extend is that it pushes the post leaving collapse closer to the next election and fails to hide it in the Covid recession. Better from a political perspective to take the hit now and hope you can b*******t your way at the next election

There is that, yes.

On the other hand, from the 1st July - once Johnson & Co. has rejected the opportunity to request an extension (regrettably, but Covid-made-me-do-it) I would expect the EU to start publishing its own series of No-Deal restrictions and limitations on what the UK and UK residents/citizens/businesses are allowed to do in the Eurozone.

This is where it comes back to brass tacks again. If Johnson sticks to his line, then Barnier will come back at him and say "sorry mate, there's just no time left to sort out a deal so we're now prioritising our own preparations." And no matter how the British tabloids try to spin it, if it's announced that British visitors need a visa/visa exemption from the 1st Jan 2021; if it's announced that UK hauliers will get a few hundred Euro-permits; if it's announced that British food cannot be exported to the EU due to the non-recognition of UK food standards; if it's confirmed that British-based airlines cannot fly "cabotage" routes within the EU; if it's announced that UK-awarded university degrees are no longer recognised within the EU ... well, you're going to have an awful lot of ordinary voters waking up and smelling the Horlicks.

Throw a disgruntled Scotland and an agitated Northern Ireland into that mix, and it could be a very stormy autumn for Johnson.

54and56

Enzokk wrote: »

Business Insider has a story that retailers are considering pulling out of NI due to extra checks between NI and the UK.

Brexit is forcing major retailers to consider pulling out of Northern Ireland



I didn't really read the article and thought it meant in a Australia-EU style deal but it seems to me they are saying that even in a deal that would mean extra checks they would consider withdrawing from the NI market.

Well the people in NI are still going to have to eat and someone is going to have to sell them their groceries. Pulling out doesn't make sense, certainly not before seeing what the reality is like and if there are increased costs that they can't pass them on in the form of higher pricing as all their competitors will be incurring the same increased costs.

It's the people of NI who will end up paying!

Sam Russell

Enzokk wrote: »

Business Insider has a story that retailers are considering pulling out of NI due to extra checks between NI and the UK.

Brexit is forcing major retailers to consider pulling out of Northern Ireland



I didn't really read the article and thought it meant in a Australia-EU style deal but it seems to me they are saying that even in a deal that would mean extra checks they would consider withdrawing from the NI market.

I assume they are referring to M&S or Tesco. Both operate here, and the same checks would apply here, so would they pull out of Ireland as well? Alternatively, would they run the NI shops as supplied from here?

Enzokk

Sam Russell wrote: »

I assume they are referring to M&S or Tesco. Both operate here, and the same checks would apply here, so would they pull out of Ireland as well? Alternatively, would they run the NI shops as supplied from here?

I wondered about that as well. The article isn't clear and only focuses on the NI impact, I assume they would have mentioned it if those companies were thinking about pulling out of Ireland as well.

I guess if the retailers do have shops in Ireland they would be able to absorb the extra costs involved due to the bigger market. The smaller NI market probably plays a role in why they would not be viable compared to Irish stores. Or are there retailers not in Ireland that is currently in NI?

One would assume if retailers in Ireland are making plans to move supply chains from the UK to Europe then moving stock up to NI would make sense to keep operating. It could mean a shift in focus for stores in NI from having UK based headquarters to being absorbed by the Ireland division if that is an option.

*I was able to read the article, sort of read and skimmed it and closed it. When I tried to open it again to confirm it was behind a paywall, so I am going off my memory from reading it. The second part of the article focused on the impact this move would have on the poorest in NI if extra checks means higher costs.

ancapailldorcha

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I think it will come down to party loyalty and staying in power versus doing the right thing for your country. The ERG MPs see any form of a Brexit as doing the right thing for their country so they can be ignored. There are some pragmatists who might well do the right thing for their country - Javid, Gauke, Clark, Green, Afolami etc. - who may well choose country before party. It depends on how many of them there are. Plus you need a united Labour party. Almost everyone else in the HoC would be on board. But if the numbers got very tight....*cough* DUP *cough*...

I'm wondering to what degree irate constituents are going to come into this. The right wing press aren't going to be cluing farmers into developments but their unions and dedicated publications most certainly will be.

Tropheus

Asda and Sainsbury's operate up north, but not down here. Most likely one of them and more likely to be Asda as I'd say Sainsbury's would be too big to be hugely impacted.

Sam Russell

Tropheus wrote: »

Asda and Sainsbury's operate up north, but not down here. Most likely one of them and more likely to be Asda as I'd say Sainsbury's would be too big to be hugely impacted.

I'd forgotten that.

Possible for Dunnes or Musgrave to move in on either of them.

Interesting times.

M&S have a limited presence in Ireland - shipping everything from the UK, so operating here might also become too expensive. Debenhams have already gone.

Lidl by contrast are organised on an all island basis.
The ads in the UK have plenty of *except in Northern Ireland* on specials.

Lemming

fash wrote: »

Important reasons not to extend is that it pushes the post leaving collapse closer to the next election and fails to hide it in the Covid recession. Better from a political perspective to take the hit now and hope you can b*******t your way at the next election

I think regards the next election, the Tories have done incalculable damage amongst the electorate; not over Brexit but over Covid-19. A lot of people have lost loved ones and that grief will mingle with resentment when the true scale of how badly the Tories have messed up. They say a week ls a long time in politics so four years would be an eternity. What do you suppose the odds are of those people forgetting that their loved ones died at the hands of the clowns in government by then? Any and all Brexit fallout along with things like Cummings little "I'm not little people" jaunts will only add oxygen to that particular smoldering furnace. The eye test sh1te has already been trotted out by Isabelle Oakeshot & Richard Tice in respect to the latest Tory lockdown violation gaff to make the news; so that little excuse has grown legs and it'll be very difficult to come back against it for example.

Charles Babbage

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Of course but I'm simply saying that tfrancnhihe Conservatives are not as united as one might think. They have a majority, sure and they're being lead by someone who travels ideologically light and appoints people based primarily on loyalty and dependability.

There must be a pro business wing of the Tories lurking in the background that are not especially happy with the direction of things.



As for shops in NI, Asda might be in trouble, also some of the franchise chains, although presumably Spar can reorient into the Irish distribution. However, there has to be scope for Aldi to open there and ship stuff from Naas.