Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

LeinsterDub

https://twitter.com/TobyonTV/status/1269388671834378240

Here we go again. Back to the UK thinking they can just throw out everything that went before and get the best deal ever

L1011

Charles Babbage wrote: »

There must be a pro business wing of the Tories lurking in the background that are not especially happy with the direction of things.



As for shops in NI, Asda might be in trouble, also some of the franchise chains, although presumably Spar can reorient into the Irish distribution. However, there has to be scope for Aldi to open there and ship stuff from Naas.

Spar NI and ROI have nothing to do with each other. NI is Hendersons and ROI is BWG; both separately licence from the Dutch firm

reslfj

Enzokk wrote: »

Business Insider has a story that retailers are considering pulling out of NI due to extra checks between NI and the UK....

How and from where are goods to Irish retailers supplied?

E.G. Irish supermarkets will have to follow EU rules as now and NI supermarkets could just get there goods from warehouses in Ireland?

Could be UK goods or quality EU27 goods - where is the problem?

Lars

reslfj

Charles Babbage wrote: »

As for shops in NI, Asda might be in trouble, also some of the franchise chains, although presumably Spar can reorient into the Irish distribution.

However, there has to be scope for Aldi to open there and ship stuff from Naas.

L1011 wrote: »

Spar NI and ROI have nothing to do with each other. NI is Hendersons and ROI is BWG; both separately licence from the Dutch firm

Retail chains trade shops or groups of shops ever so often between themselves or with outsiders - empty shops or including a distribution warehouse.

E.G. the danish owned Netto-UK chain (100+ shops) including its warehouse just north of Doncaster was sold to Asda about 10 years ago.
I believe the distribution was moved to one or more Asda warehouse later.

Giving up in NI most likely means selling some or all the shops to another retail chain already having a warehouse in Ireland.

These chain based retailers are normally very fast movers, when they know the conditions and their options.

Lars

PS! Distribution from Ireland can be a major challenge for existing computer systems.

Enzokk

reslfj wrote: »

How and from where are goods to Irish retailers supplied?

E.G. Irish supermarkets will have to follow EU rules as now and NI supermarkets could just get there goods from warehouses in Ireland?

Could be UK goods or quality EU27 goods - where is the problem?

Lars

I guess if the retailers doesn't have Irish stores it creates the problem. It did seem like the story was about retailers that weren't in Ireland and this is why they are looking at the viability of their NI stores.

Jizique

L1011 wrote: »

Spar NI and ROI have nothing to do with each other. NI is Hendersons and ROI is BWG; both separately licence from the Dutch firm

Asda and Sainsbury tried to merge last year but it was blocked. Asda is for sale.

Professor Moriarty

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I'm wondering to what degree irate constituents are going to come into this. The right wing press aren't going to be cluing farmers into developments but their unions and dedicated publications most certainly will be.

There's the staunch Tory base which will vote Tory no matter what. Which leaves voters who can be swayed by different policies. Some of these will stay with the Tories because of Brexit. And some will be enraged by loss of jobs/income/business. How many of these will blame the Tory party? Or will they be conditioned to blame Covid-19 and the EU? Irregardless, the Tories have over 4 years until the next general election.

It's a very large majority and the general body of Tory MPs are ideologically right wing. If Johnson goes, he'll be replaced by another right winger. So Johnson can be sacrificed on the altar of public opinion, the EU and Covid-19 will be the big bad wolves and the Tory party will circle the wagons, increase their nationalist and populist deflections and wait for the anger to subside. Four years is a long time in politics.

Enzokk

This headline was highlighted earlier, but the difference 7 months (give or take a few weeks) makes.

https://twitter.com/mrjamesob/status/1269539631302955009?s=20

Johnson opened the WA, he negotiated a new deal, but now that the realities of his deal is being laid bare he is trying to disown it.

Enzokk

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It's a very large majority and the general body of Tory MPs are ideologically right wing. If Johnson goes, he'll be replaced by another right winger. So Johnson can be sacrificed on the altar of public opinion, the EU and Covid-19 will be the big bad wolves and the Tory party will circle the wagons, increase their nationalist and populist deflections and wait for the anger to subside. Four years is a long time in politics.

If Johnson is pushed out by his own MP's due to Brexit you would assume that the current cabinet is out of the running to take over as they stood by and allowed it to happen. So the options for a replacement would be a moderate like Jeremy Hunt who lost his job in cabinet when Johnson became PM, or someone not even Johnson thought was good enough than the likes of Braveman or Rees-Mogg, which is very scary.

Someone like Gove could become PM, but it would be through scheming and backstabbing which would be at best the same as Johnson. He is covered in the same slurry as Johnson from Brexit and has been in cabinet all the time as well with May. So he was there for the terrible May deal and then the terrible Johnson deal and the Covid-19 crises.

ancapailldorcha

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

There's the staunch Tory base which will vote Tory no matter what. Which leaves voters who can be swayed by different policies. Some of these will stay with the Tories because of Brexit. And some will be enraged by loss of jobs/income/business. How many of these will blame the Tory party? Or will they be conditioned to blame Covid-19 and the EU? Irregardless, the Tories have over 4 years until the next general election.

It's a very large majority and the general body of Tory MPs are ideologically right wing. If Johnson goes, he'll be replaced by another right winger. So Johnson can be sacrificed on the altar of public opinion, the EU and Covid-19 will be the big bad wolves and the Tory party will circle the wagons, increase their nationalist and populist deflections and wait for the anger to subside. Four years is a long time in politics.

I don't think blaming the EU will really be an option when farmers and British businesses are facing bankruptcy. When the Covid-19 crisis is resolved and the UK is in a completely artificial recession, there won't be sufficient basis for most of the population to blame the virus and the public perception seems to be that the UK has left the EU.

While the Conservative membership who seem to have abhorrent moral beliefs who will be the ones to choose the new leader, it'll be down to MP's to decide which two individuals make that ballot.

There is a staunch Tory base of voters but they're not enough to guarantee victory. And the MP's who may be varying shades of right wing are going to have different concerns. If Johnson plays his cards right, he could end up with new safe seats for the party in the north. Mind you, this is a big "if".

Johnson will not be sacrificed unless there is a catastrophe. His loyalists will be excised long before there is serious talk of him leaving. Look at the Cummings fiasco. Anyone else would have ditched him, got the extension and then quietly rehired him down the line.

Professor Moriarty

Enzokk wrote: »

If Johnson is pushed out by his own MP's due to Brexit you would assume that the current cabinet is out of the running to take over as they stood by and allowed it to happen. So the options for a replacement would be a moderate like Jeremy Hunt who lost his job in cabinet when Johnson became PM, or someone not even Johnson thought was good enough than the likes of Braveman or Rees-Mogg, which is very scary.

Someone like Gove could become PM, but it would be through scheming and backstabbing which would be at best the same as Johnson. He is covered in the same slurry as Johnson from Brexit and has been in cabinet all the time as well with May. So he was there for the terrible May deal and then the terrible Johnson deal and the Covid-19 crises.

It doesn't really matter what sewage you're covered in - look at Johnson and he got a huge majority - the Tory press will spin all of it away. Sunak (Thatcherite Brexiteer) is the front runner, followed by Raab (rabid Brexiteer) and Gove (enough said). There is a hardcore base now, greatly enhanced and cemented by Cummings, who see the Tories as the only party they could possibly vote for in England due to the demonising of the 'left', immigration, the EU and all the other monsters under the bed. They'll happily accept and support any of those three.

Ben Done

Enzokk wrote: »

This headline was highlighted earlier, but the difference 7 months (give or take a few weeks) makes.

https://twitter.com/mrjamesob/status/1269539631302955009?s=20

Johnson opened the WA, he negotiated a new deal, but now that the realities of his deal is being laid bare he is trying to disown it.

His Oven-Ready Brexit has turned into an Oven-Ready turkey.

Enzokk

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It doesn't really matter what sewage you're covered in - look at Johnson and he got a huge majority - the Tory press will spin all of it away. Sunak (Thatcherite Brexiteer) is the front runner, followed by Raab (rabid Brexiteer) and Gove (enough said). There is a hardcore base now, greatly enhanced and cemented by Cummings, who see the Tories as the only party they could possibly vote for in England due to the demonising of the 'left', immigration, the EU and all the other monsters under the bed. They'll happily accept and support any of those three.

I am approaching it from the position that Johnson is turfed out by his own MP's. This will only happen if they get enough pressure from their constituents, so if it gets that bad then anyone in the Johnson cabinet will be covered in whatever Johnson is as well and unelectable.

We will not know until the next election, but if the votes Johnson won in the Labour red wall in 2019 is really only borrowed for now, it doesn't matter what the press writes. I think Johnson won a majority due to a confluence of events that fell perfectly for him. Firstly, Brexit wasn't done and people just wanted it done and he offered a "oven ready deal". Secondly you had Corbyn, and we have spent many posts on him and his shortcomings.

Without these events and the subsequent crises this government will swing from between now and then, and there will be many more crises if Johnson is still leader, it will take some sort of own goal for the opposition not to win back the support they lost due to Brexit.

Professor Moriarty

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I don't think blaming the EU will really be an option when farmers and British businesses are facing bankruptcy. When the Covid-19 crisis is resolved and the UK is in a completely artificial recession, there won't be sufficient basis for most of the population to blame the virus and the public perception seems to be that the UK has left the EU.

While the Conservative membership who seem to have abhorrent moral beliefs who will be the ones to choose the new leader, it'll be down to MP's to decide which two individuals make that ballot.

There is a staunch Tory base of voters but they're not enough to guarantee victory. And the MP's who may be varying shades of right wing are going to have different concerns. If Johnson plays his cards right, he could end up with new safe seats for the party in the north. Mind you, this is a big "if".

Johnson will not be sacrificed unless there is a catastrophe. His loyalists will be excised long before there is serious talk of him leaving. Look at the Cummings fiasco. Anyone else would have ditched him, got the extension and then quietly rehired him down the line.

I agree Johnson will cling on - until polls show narrowing of the gap to zero when restless MPs might heave. It's important to remember that the large majority of Tory members and MPs are ideologically right wing and pro Brexit. Much more so than even a few years ago. For many, that ideology is more important than what will be described as a temporary economic blip.

And look at that nasty Covid-19 and dastardly EU. England must evoke its Dunkirk backbone and bulldog spirit and swing in behind Churchillian Johnson/Raab/Gove who will defeat these evils and strike glorious unicorn and rainbow deals across the globe. Or some populist ****e like that.

Professor Moriarty

Enzokk wrote: »

I am approaching it from the position that Johnson is turfed out by his own MP's. This will only happen if they get enough pressure from their constituents, so if it gets that bad then anyone in the Johnson cabinet will be covered in whatever Johnson is as well and unelectable.

We will not know until the next election, but if the votes Johnson won in the Labour red wall in 2019 is really only borrowed for now, it doesn't matter what the press writes. I think Johnson won a majority due to a confluence of events that fell perfectly for him. Firstly, Brexit wasn't done and people just wanted it done and he offered a "oven ready deal". Secondly you had Corbyn, and we have spent many posts on him and his shortcomings.

Without these events and the subsequent crises this government will swing from between now and then, and there will be many more crises if Johnson is still leader, it will take some sort of own goal for the opposition not to win back the support they lost due to Brexit.

In the opinion polls, just by Labour doing nothing, the gap has gone from an average of 20% to 3% in six weeks. If I were a Tory strategist, I would leave Johnson to take the blame for this (which he is taking anyway) and wait until January before turfing him out. Big reshuffle, brand new day blah blah, and off we go until December 2024.

CelticRambler

Enzokk wrote: »

We will not know until the next election, but if the votes Johnson won in the Labour red wall in 2019 is really only borrowed for now, it doesn't matter what the press writes.

This, for me, is the key factor that's going to play out in the second half of this year. The plain people of England have been indoctrinated with the notion that their island is detached from "Europe" but - as we've long discussed on this series of threads - every aspect of GB society is intricately woven with the Continent.

We also know that the worst thing for an economy is uncertainty, and coming out of lockdown, the EU will want to ensure maximum certainty for EU businesses. There will be little tolerance for Johnson's amateur bluffing and references to last-minute blinking. If there's no request for an extension in July, there's unlikely to be much progress between then and the autumn, so no deal to present to the member states for approval in October.

The EU will, therefore, most likely start issuing clear instructions to EU businesses and other agencies to treat no-deal as the expected outcome and to outline what restrictions apply to their British customers/suppliers/visitors/employees. So come September/October, all of these people in the UK will start receiving letters/e-mails/on-screen pop-ups asking for their visa exemptions, their customs clearance, their EU conformity certificates ... and from what we've read, they're not ready for any of that.

It won't matter what nonsense appears in the Telegraph or the Daily Mail, if your boss tells you that their Covid-weakened business can't cope with a sudden drop in EU orders and you're out of a job.

Leroy42

That headline in the Express is really quite something. Now its May's deal?

Within the article a 'government source' says they didn't have time to deal with everything in the WA, they simply signed it!

And now they want to reopen the reopened WA because they see its actually got in it.

And they seemed annoyed that the EU won't budge.

IMO, for things like GI, the EU will move, but will want something in return.

That people still support Johnson despite him clearly signing a WA he didn't understand and felt he would simply fix later it incredible.

They blame things they don't like in the WA on a lack of time and then give themselves as little time as possible to do the trade deal.

They're a bunch of clowns.

CelticRambler

Deleted User wrote: »

They blame things they don't like in the WA on a lack of time and then give themselves as little time as possible to do the trade deal.

They didn't have enough time, despite asking for - and being granted three extensions. Wasn't there some guy that opposed the last one, said he'd rather be dead in a ditch or something. Wonder what happened to him ... :rolleyes:

Nody

Enzokk wrote: »

If Johnson is pushed out by his own MP's due to Brexit you would assume that the current cabinet is out of the running to take over as they stood by and allowed it to happen. So the options for a replacement would be a moderate like Jeremy Hunt who lost his job in cabinet when Johnson became PM, or someone not even Johnson thought was good enough than the likes of Braveman or Rees-Mogg, which is very scary.

Someone like Gove could become PM, but it would be through scheming and backstabbing which would be at best the same as Johnson. He is covered in the same slurry as Johnson from Brexit and has been in cabinet all the time as well with May. So he was there for the terrible May deal and then the terrible Johnson deal and the Covid-19 crises.

You're assuming that if the Tories turn on Boris that they would go for someone moderate; I'd argue they would do a re-run of May here. Claims Boris being to soft and rolling over, why just look at the exit deal he signed. Now if you vote for me instead I'll show those German wannabies we kicked in WW2 in Brussels how the deal will be done etc. with the candidates trying to outdo each other in how hard Brexit they will arrange basically.

Sam Russell

Nody wrote: »

You're assuming that if the Tories turn on Boris that they would go for someone moderate; I'd argue they would do a re-run of May here. Claims Boris being to soft and rolling over, why just look at the exit deal he signed. Now if you vote for me instead I'll show those German wannabies we kicked in WW2 in Brussels how the deal will be done etc. with the candidates trying to outdo each other in how hard Brexit they will arrange basically.

Is this before or after the queues at Dover extend to the M25 and the rotting fish smell from Grimsby can be noticed in York?

Will the cry for Scottish independence be heard in Westminster and ignored or will a referendum be granted to get the SNP out of Westminster once and for all?

Will there be any call for a NI border poll?

Ben Done

CelticRambler wrote: »

They didn't have enough time, despite asking for - and being granted three extensions. Wasn't there some guy that opposed the last one, said he'd rather be dead in a ditch or something. Wonder what happened to him ... :rolleyes:

He was almost dead in a ditch, till two bloody foreigners intervened, and saved his life.

Professor Moriarty

Ben Done wrote: »

He was almost dead in a ditch, till two bloody foreigners intervened, and saved his life.

He'll be ditched soon enough.

Enzokk

Nody wrote: »

You're assuming that if the Tories turn on Boris that they would go for someone moderate; I'd argue they would do a re-run of May here. Claims Boris being to soft and rolling over, why just look at the exit deal he signed. Now if you vote for me instead I'll show those German wannabies we kicked in WW2 in Brussels how the deal will be done etc. with the candidates trying to outdo each other in how hard Brexit they will arrange basically.

Yes, because my assumption is it will be the fallout from Brexit that does for Johnson. I don't see how you get rid of Johnson because he went for WTO deal agreement with the EU and the consequences of this is so severe you turn on your leader. And the answer to that is someone who goes harder right than that? What is harder than the current path?

CelticRambler

Nody wrote: »

I'd argue they would do a re-run of May here. Claims Boris being to soft and rolling over, why just look at the exit deal he signed. Now if you vote for me instead I'll show those German wannabies we kicked in WW2 in Brussels how the deal will be done etc. with the candidates trying to outdo each other in how hard Brexit they will arrange basically.

There isn't enough time :P for that kind of posturing though! As of now, the default trajectory is towards the hardest of hard Brexits by the end of the year, championed by do-nothing-Johnson & Co.

Like Farage, there's nothing left for the ERG to fight for. So the next chapter will be played out between the EU (via their no-deal readiness publications) and those Tory MPs who listen to that part of the electorate for whom the reality of a no-deal Brexit kicks in this side of Christmas.

Jizique

CelticRambler wrote: »

There isn't enough time :P for that kind of posturing though! As of now, the default trajectory is towards the hardest of hard Brexits by the end of the year, championed by do-nothing-Johnson & Co.

Like Farage, there's nothing left for the ERG to fight for. So the next chapter will be played out between the EU (via their no-deal readiness publications) and those Tory MPs who listen to that part of the electorate for whom the reality of a no-deal Brexit kicks in this side of Christmas.

Beware Patel - the headbangers love her message, even if she is both female and an immigrant.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/06/07/eurocrats-dont-want-britain-reasonable-want-subservient/#comment
Here is Hannan’s latest diatribe, can only read first few lines but the comments are gas

Professor Moriarty

Jizique wrote: »

Beware Patel - the headbangers love her message, even if she is both female and an immigrant.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/06/07/eurocrats-dont-want-britain-reasonable-want-subservient/#comment
Here is Hannan’s latest diatribe, can only read first few lines but the comments are gas

The whole article is an exercise in blame and deflection.

Nody

Enzokk wrote: »

Yes, because my assumption is it will be the fallout from Brexit that does for Johnson. I don't see how you get rid of Johnson because he went for WTO deal agreement with the EU and the consequences of this is so severe you turn on your leader. And the answer to that is someone who goes harder right than that? What is harder than the current path?

Sam Russell wrote: »

Is this before or after the queues at Dover extend to the M25 and the rotting fish smell from Grimsby can be noticed in York?

Will the cry for Scottish independence be heard in Westminster and ignored or will a referendum be granted to get the SNP out of Westminster once and for all?

Will there be any call for a NI border poll?

You both make the same mistake of assuming that the tories and the voters are suddenly going to go "Oh, turns out Brexit was a bad thing after all let's change what we voted for and did" instead of blaming EU for it all as has been the course all along to date. Oh if EU had only "been more reasonable" we'd not have this tough but "stiff upper lip" and "channeling the WW2 spirit" will get us through shortly; "simply wait for "insert new PM" will go back and get the deal we need from those Krauts". Oh and look we got a deal with USA; our "companies need to channel more of the free trading spirit" and "grasp the opportunities it brings" etc. Chances that they suddenly turn on themselves or start to realize they been duped is very very small...

If you have any doubts about the above feel free to read 20 comments in a Brexit related article and you'll see exactly what I mean. The ship is not for turning, Brexit means Brexit and EU is run by Merkel and/or Macron who'll sort out Barnier shortly. That this is reported by an ex MEP who happens to be from a certain pro brexit party as confirmed source makes no difference in it's veracity as truth.

ancapailldorcha

Jizique wrote: »

Beware Patel - the headbangers love her message, even if she is both female and an immigrant.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/06/07/eurocrats-dont-want-britain-reasonable-want-subservient/#comment
Here is Hannan’s latest diatribe, can only read first few lines but the comments are gas

Mod: Please don't just dump links here because the comments may be amusing.

fash

https://twitter.com/vivamjm/status/1269569819743072256?s=20

1st January is going to be interesting...