Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

Leroy42

Pablo Escobar wrote: »

For example, with equivalence on financial services (which is not part of negotiations btw), the EU decides whether to grant it to Third Parties. They can withdraw it at short notice. This is another huge part of the UK economy. So, yeah, they can and will shut access down pretty quickly.

Yes they can, but IMO the UK are betting that they won't.

They need us etc.

To cut of financial services from London would be a major decision to take, and have serious consequences for EU business, as well as UK of course that is not the issue.

The UK is a major economic power, may well have aligned itself to the US. Will the EU really start a trade war?

But the real question is how far the EU will sway in order to avoid such a decision. I mentioned a few cows, ridiculous of course but highlights the core of the potential issue.

The UK are not just going to refuse to erect a border, they will pretend, prolong, apologise for teething problems, blame the system etc. We know this because this is what they have done throughout this, and even with Covid.

That is my worry. That slowly, but surely like the boiling frog, Ireland finds itself competing at a disadvantage.

Sam Russell

Leroy42 wrote: »

Yes they can, but IMO the UK are betting that they won't.

They need us etc.

To cut of financial services from London would be a major decision to take, and have serious consequences for EU business, as well as UK of course that is not the issue.

The UK is a major economic power, may well have aligned itself to the US. Will the EU really start a trade war?

But the real question is how far the EU will sway in order to avoid such a decision. I mentioned a few cows, ridiculous of course but highlights the core of the potential issue.

The UK are not just going to refuse to erect a border, they will pretend, prolong, apologise for teething problems, blame the system etc. We know this because this is what they have done throughout this, and even with Covid.

That is my worry. That slowly, but surely like the boiling frog, Ireland finds itself competing at a disadvantage.

Covid is basically a Public Health issue, and as such it is not an EU competence.

The EU can only advise on the matter, and perhaps now the EU should move to making PH a competence for them so that in future such matters can be properly coordinated at a pan European level. It works for animal health and would work for human health.

It needs action, for all our sake.

Leroy42

You misunderstand. I was making the point that throughout the Covid crisis in the UK the government has lied, covered up, distorted the actual numbers, blamed others. That is the way they operate.

I cannot think of any reason to believe anything that the UK government says or does.

CrabRevolution

Leroy42 wrote: »

Yes they can, but IMO the UK are betting that they won't.

They need us etc.

To cut of financial services from London would be a major decision to take, and have serious consequences for EU business, as well as UK of course that is not the issue.

The UK is a major economic power, may well have aligned itself to the US. Will the EU really start a trade war?

But the real question is how far the EU will sway in order to avoid such a decision. I mentioned a few cows, ridiculous of course but highlights the core of the potential issue.

The UK are not just going to refuse to erect a border, they will pretend, prolong, apologise for teething problems, blame the system etc. We know this because this is what they have done throughout this, and even with Covid.

That is my worry. That slowly, but surely like the boiling frog, Ireland finds itself competing at a disadvantage.

The notion that the UK will form some united front with the US where they'll be protecting each others interests is simply laughable. The UK will bend over and do as the USA demands (and delight doing so, calling it the "special relationship"), while the USA won't inconvenience themselves in any way to help the UK.

Even on a more general scale, you're using the typical Brexiter argument of "The EU has no sense of self-preservation, and if it does, self preservation consists 100% of protecting trade with the UK". To Brexiters, the EU's primary concern is just trade with the UK and nothing else, and they'll let the UK do whatever it wants in order to preserve this trade. "The EU need us more than we need them".

In reality the EU has the integrity of its internal market to think about, as well as any impacts on trade deals with other countries around the world, plus negative impacts on individual member states, the potential for attracting business into the EU as opposed to the UK etc.

Peregrinus

Leroy42 wrote: »

. . . The UK are not just going to refuse to erect a border, they will pretend, prolong, apologise for teething problems, blame the system etc. We know this because this is what they have done throughout this, and even with Covid.

That is my worry. That slowly, but surely like the boiling frog, Ireland finds itself competing at a disadvantage.

Unfortunately, all possible EU responses to the UK refusing to operate the NI protocol in good faith are bad for us.

I agree that the EU is unlikely to start a Trump-style trade war over this by, e.g., withdrawing mutual recognition for financial services as a punitive measure. But if they did, an EU/UK trade war would be very painful for us.

If, instead, they invoke the dispute resolution mechanism in the WA that will take tiiiiime, and in the meantime the EU will at the very least control the UK/EU border very rigorously. Since much of our trade passes over that border - twice - that will be painful for us. Sure, we can divert some of our trade to avoid the UK but that takes time to implement, costs money and is only available for some of the trade - the alternative sea routes are slow.

Plus, if there's evidence that NI is become a route through which stuff that should't get into the EU is leaching into the EU, the EU wil have to consider what steps they can take about that that don't depend on UK co-operation. And it's hard to think of any steps they could take that wouldn't impact adversely on us.

Enzokk

Leroy42 wrote: »

Yes they can, but IMO the UK are betting that they won't.

They need us etc.

To cut of financial services from London would be a major decision to take, and have serious consequences for EU business, as well as UK of course that is not the issue.

The UK is a major economic power, may well have aligned itself to the US. Will the EU really start a trade war?

But the real question is how far the EU will sway in order to avoid such a decision. I mentioned a few cows, ridiculous of course but highlights the core of the potential issue.

The UK are not just going to refuse to erect a border, they will pretend, prolong, apologise for teething problems, blame the system etc. We know this because this is what they have done throughout this, and even with Covid.

That is my worry. That slowly, but surely like the boiling frog, Ireland finds itself competing at a disadvantage.

So we should give them what they want because you think the EU will not be able to do anything quickly against the EU? Because that seems to be your argument that the UK will be able to delay implementation and cause damage to the EU single market. The EU will move quickly when it needs to. The question is, what countries in the EU will oppose measures against the UK if the EU project is being threatened?

So unless a EU member will go to bat for the UK when it is a third country when they didn't do it when the UK was a member, surely you should expect the EU to react quickly to protect itself. If that means short term pain with services for the EU to move a lot of the work from the UK not to reward them for breaking their side of a legal agreement, then that is what will happen.


Just another news item, the noises still seems to indicate no extension. It would be some u-turn to ask for an extension later this month.

https://twitter.com/Brexit/status/1270436344104353793?s=20

CelticRambler

Leroy42 wrote: »

Yes they can, but IMO the UK are betting that they won't.

They need us etc.

To cut of financial services from London would be a major decision to take, and have serious consequences for EU business, as well as UK of course that is not the issue.

The UK is a major economic power, may well have aligned itself to the US. Will the EU really start a trade war?

A trade war with whom? As things stand at the moment, the probable end of this transitional phase is the UK defaulting to WTO terms, complete with quotas and tariffs. The only thing the now-Brexited UK can bet on is that Johnson does a Johnson and requests an extension.

Assuming that doesn't happen, after that every negotiation will essentially start from the same point: are you (Britain) implementing the Irish Protocol in the way that we agreed? No? Well, that's an easy one, seeing as you have total control of both sides of the GB-NI border; so if you can't handle that, let's stick with WTO till you learn how to be a modern, grown-up trading partner.

From 1st Jan 2021, the onus will be on the UK to show that they have been compliant with everything the EU has asked of them if they want to make further progress in negotiations. There'll be no boiling of frogs of any kind.

As for the financial services - that British goose is already cooked. The EU has already implemented it's unilateral strategy in that regard: allow the UK to provide what EU businesses need until such time as EU financial hubs can replace the service. Then lock them out.

ambro25

Leroy42 wrote: »

You misunderstand. I was making the point that throughout the Covid crisis in the UK the government has lied, covered up, distorted the actual numbers, blamed others. That is the way they operate.

I cannot think of any reason to believe anything that the UK government says or does.

In the news today, Johnson reportedly lost 40% approval rate in 40 days over Covid (mis)management.

How much faster do you think this could drop over the summer, as Britons are barred from EU27 beaches (Greece, certainly) and experience their economy being worst-hit (OECD in news today), whilst looking at Europeans deconfining on said beaches as a result of better Covid management, and recovering potentially better through EU-wide initiatives?

The UK government can certainly continue operating with EU negotiations, as they have with Covid, and I hear -and commiserate with- your anxiety.

But how do will they continue to do that, once Johnson, Cummings, Gove, Rees-Mogg & Co. chart negative approval ratings? "Last days of the Reich"-material come end Q1 2021, going by hauliers and assorted other economic actors' comments on procurememt of *everything* from 1st Jan 2021.

What was that quote again? Every lie that gets told, owes a debt to the truth, and sooner or later that debt is paid.

There's 4+ years' worth of lies on Johnson & Co's tab, and the bailiffs' van will be turning at the street corner at month end (extension request deadline) if the UK doesn't cave in and ask for one.

Leroy42

People have been saying that since the ref was passed. The last GE would indicate that far from losing patience the UK public have doubled down.

There is clearly anger at the handling of Covid, but if the numbers continue as they currently are then by Sept/Oct Covid may well be a memory and something that is talked about in terms of the past. The dramatic drops in support will start to reverse.

Brexit seems to absolve politicians of any responsibility and the public seem more intent on 'getting it done' (whatever IT is).

Peregrinus

Leroy42 wrote: »

People have been saying that since the ref was passed. The last GE would indicate that far from losing patience the UK public have doubled down.

There is clearly anger at the handling of Covid, but if the numbers continue as they currently are then by Sept/Oct Covid may well be a memory and something that is talked about in terms of the past. The dramatic drops in support will start to reverse.

I'm not sure the will.

The typical experience in a time of shared crisis is that support for the government goes up - because, basically, people have a need to feel that they can trust the government, and because the comparatively minor issues that they used to be annoyed at the government over suddenly seem less important.

But this isn't a solid rise in support; the increased support tends to dissipate pretty quickly once the crisis has passed.

Johnson's experience is different because, although his support rose when the crisis began, it has fallen very steeply while the crisis is still in full swing. This probably indicates that, although people would still like to be able to trust him, they just can't. They're likely to be quite angry about that, and I would not expect the dip in support to recover quickly once the crisis passes.

Leroy42 wrote: »

Brexit seems to absolve politicians of any responsibility and the public seem more intent on 'getting it done' (whatever IT is).

Johnson's fear, I think, is that the dip in support will not have recovered by the time the exit from transition is upon people, at which point the deleterious effects of a crash-out Brexit will become increasingly manifest, and the appalling way in which the Brexit process has been handled will be hard to conceal. Johnson will try to blame this on the EU, but if people still remember that he made a complete hames of the Covid-19 pandemic response they'll be much more receptive to the idea that the hames of Brexit is also attributable to him. Yes, up to now the public has wanted to "get it done", but they have been encouraged to want that by people who tell them it can be done easily, and beneficially, and successfully. If that turns out not to be true the public may be as pissed off at the governmetn over Brexit as they are over the pandemic.

The government hopes that the pandemic will mask the economic effects of a crash-out brexit, but the reality is that it will exacerbate them. And in the same way the government hopes that they will get credit for "getting Brexit done", but if things pan out badly they could very well end up getting blamed for "getting Brexit done".

ancapailldorcha

Leroy42 wrote: »

People have been saying that since the ref was passed. The last GE would indicate that far from losing patience the UK public have doubled down.

There is clearly anger at the handling of Covid, but if the numbers continue as they currently are then by Sept/Oct Covid may well be a memory and something that is talked about in terms of the past. The dramatic drops in support will start to reverse.

Brexit seems to absolve politicians of any responsibility and the public seem more intent on 'getting it done' (whatever IT is).

I think the problem is one of tangibility. Most Brits haven't felt the impact in their own lives yet. Covid-19 gave them a taste of that but that's a global pandemic.

If you were the sort of person living in the UK from 2016 to early 2020 and had never watched the news then you probably would have noticed no difference whatsoever in your daily life unless you were unfortunate enough to work for a company who had to shut down due to Brexit.

If we see food shortages and serious disruption to people's everyday lives here as seems almost certain in the event of a no deal Brexit while the EU member states go about business as usual then that's not a situation that the government will be able to BS their way out of.

For all he did to bring it about, I don't actually think Dominic Cummings cares one whit about the EU. I daresay that he'd be happy with close alignment with EU rules and standards if it meant putting Brexit to bed for good.

I feel like if we don't see Johnson request the extension by the end of June then we're into an everything or nothing scenario whereby he capitulates and the press have another little bout of flag waving or we crash out. If it's the latter then there'll be feck all levelling up. Cummings science agenda will be dead in the water as well with countries like France cleverly trying to poach expertise from the UK, especially the foreigners who've all but been told they are not welcome.

It's clear from the Cummings controversy that Johnson has outsourced himself to this man. I can't see him wanting to destroy his chances of implementing his agenda for a no deal Brexit.

ambro25

Leroy42 wrote: »

People have been saying that since the ref was passed. The last GE would indicate that far from losing patience the UK public have doubled down.

There is clearly anger at the handling of Covid, but if the numbers continue as they currently are then by Sept/Oct Covid may well be a memory and something that is talked about in terms of the past. The dramatic drops in support will start to reverse.

Brexit seems to absolve politicians of any responsibility and the public seem more intent on 'getting it done' (whatever IT is).

Some people may have been saying that, but I certainly did not, for the elementary reason that Joe Average in the UK has yet to experience what Brexit actually entails, and that will not start until 1st January 2021.

The last GE was no reliable indicator in that respect, because Johnson's 80 seat majority was gained with a 44% vote under the FPTP voting system.

The only valid indication the GE provided, is the fundamental problem with the largest proportion of Brits, back in 2015-2016 and still to this day: its sheer apathy about all things political, enduring no matter what each year's worth of batsh1ttery bingo cards turn up.

But now, throw disruption to their daily lives, like Covid just did exceptionally (but which the inch or 2 of snow throws up every year, with substantially the same panicked behaviour) into the mix, and watch what happens.

You've seen it and are still seeing it with Covid now, but fast forward to January 2021, starting from a moribund recovery (that plunged from a high still below 2008 levels) and without a deal, meaning insta-price increases by retailers and fast-developing shortages of, well, everything. Including medicines (there isn't sufficient time by January to reconstitute Covid crisis-depleted healthcare stocks, acc. to pharma & logistics experts). Throw in even half of the 3.5m UK job losses forecast by the OBR (iirc, might have been ONS) on a Covid+no deal basis, on top of that.

I don't fancy theirs, much. No matter how well Odey, Johnson and the whole merry band of Brexiting kleptocrats do out of it.

Lemming

ambro25 wrote: »

Every lie that gets told, owes a debt to the truth, and sooner or later that debt is paid.

That is a wonderful phrase and I must remember it. It is also so apt for what has transpired and is yet to come.

Leroy42 wrote: »

There is clearly anger at the handling of Covid, but if the numbers continue as they currently are then by Sept/Oct Covid may well be a memory and something that is talked about in terms of the past. The dramatic drops in support will start to reverse.

Peregrinus wrote: »

Johnson's experience is different because, although his support rose when the crisis began, it has fallen very steeply while the crisis is still in full swing. This probably indicates that, although people would still like to be able to trust him, they just can't. They're likely to be quite angry about that, and I would not expect the dip in support to recover quickly once the crisis passes.

Whislst a lot of people are angry about the forced changes on their lives and incomes, such anger is transient; improve peoples lives and they tend to forget - at least over time - about the sh1t they had to put up with. But the whole Covid mis-management debacle isn't just about peoples economic or social complaints; 60,000+ excess deaths have occurred as a result of this and as I said eariler in either this thread or the economic thread, how much would one be willing to bet on those people grieving over loved ones "forgetting" any time soon, if ever, what the current crop of clowns in government have inflicted upon them? There's anger and then there's cold fury. Which one is this to be? "It'll be over in time for Christmas"?

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

If it's the latter then there'll be feck all levelling up. Cummings science agenda will be dead in the water as well with countries like France cleverly trying to poach expertise from the UK, especially the foreigners who've all but been told they are not welcome.

Don't forget the 'Brain drain' effect as those Britons with qualifications and transferable skills all seek to leave too. The UK is not unique among the nations of the world in what typically motivates people to look elsewhere for jobs.

ancapailldorcha

Lemming wrote: »

Whislst a lot of people are angry about the forced changes on their lives and incomes, such anger is transient; improve peoples lives and they tend to forget - at least over time - about the sh1t they had to put up with. But the whole Covid mis-management debacle isn't just about peoples economic or social complaints; 60,000+ excess deaths have occurred as a result of this and as I said eariler in either this thread or the economic thread, how much would one be willing to bet on those people grieving over loved ones "forgetting" any time soon, if ever, what the current crop of clowns in government have inflicted upon them? There's anger and then there's cold fury. Which one is this to be?

It may not be transient though. I'm no epidemiologist but until there's a vaccine, I don't know what'll happen in the near future in relation to Covid. Will there be a second spike? I do not know.

However, the effects of the pandemic aren't going away any time soon. Businesses have gone bust and people have lost jobs. And that's before we factor in Brexit. People were able to forget about Cummings' jaunt to Durham but you can't forget losing your job as easily, especially if new opportunities are slim pickings.

IF Johnson turns on the spending taps, IF people visibly see their communities and living circumstances improve and IF there are more good quality jobs and training programmes along with more affordable housing then maybe he can build himself a base for 2024 but those are colossal ifs.

Lemming wrote: »

Don't forget the 'Brain drain' effect as those Britons with qualifications and transferable skills all seek to leave too. The UK is not unique among the nations of the world in what typically motivates people to look elsewhere for jobs.

True but that flow doesn't go the other way as easily. British aversion to free movement cuts both ways.

The UK is unique in that it boast elite universities, a vibrant economy, low unemployment and opportunities for anyone who wants to move here and contribute as well as being English speaking which also confers advantages as English is the official language of the EU and is the easiest language Europeans have to communicate with as many of them learn in as part of their education. I'm not saying that the continental nations don't have excellent universities or that I wouldn't love living in France so I could visit historic places like Rouen or Rhiems, just that there are barriers that don't exist with the UK, especially as an Irishman with our better rights than EU nationals in the UK.

I've been debating moving to France, Germany or possible Sweden or the Netherlands but I've no idea what job I'd do. Even if I did, outside of universities the postings I see demand fluency in the native tongue as an essential prerequisite. Luis from Portugal who fancies moving to London probably has good English already and maybe even did an Erasmus while at university.

ambro25

Lemming wrote: »

T(...)
Don't forget the 'Brain drain' effect as those Britons with qualifications and transferable skills all seek to leave too. The UK is not unique among the nations of the world in what typically motivates people to look elsewhere for jobs.

Anecdotal, but topical to your point: applications for German naturalisation by British citizens were up by 2300% last year.

ancapailldorcha re. 'elite universities': check today's news about that. They've been taking a steady drubbing in international league tables every year since 2016, but the latest is their worst by a country mile. In today's Guardian, IIRC.

Sam Russell

I see that Johnson will not seek an extension - he'd rather be found dead in a ditch. So 1st of July will pass without a request for an extension.

Come October, when the EU begin to make serious noises about the unreadiness of the GB/NI border, and how the inspection regime needs to be in place and the customs/vet inspectors need to be in place, and the sanctions open to the EU if they are not in place by the 1st of Jan 2021, and J begins to see the effect of fury in the EU stance, he might have a word with his best mate Leo as to what he can do about it.

Of course Leo might be Michael by then, and the quiet word may or may not cause him to belatedly request an extension, but if he does request it, surely the EU would grant it, but on less favourable terms than if he had requested it at the correct time.

Of course the EU could, if it wanted to be nasty, stop UK planes flying using 5th freedom rights, and perhaps the French customs could bring French customs (strikes) into play - through very fastidious checks on UK exports.

The UK public could not handle the shortage of toilet paper without massive panic buying of all products, even though they were assured of plentiful supply. Contrast that with our reaction - panic buying lasted 48 hours here.

My guess is October will see J asking the EU for his reprieve from taking up his position in the ditch.

Sam Russell

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I've been debating moving to France, Germany or possible Sweden or the Netherlands but I've no idea what job I'd do. Even if I did, outside of universities the postings I see demand fluency in the native tongue as an essential prerequisite. Luis from Portugal who fancies moving to London probably has good English already and maybe even did an Erasmus while at university.

I know someone (native UK/English) who took up a job at a Swiss university and it was a condition that he learned Swiss German. He never did because there was no recognised course that teaches Swiss German, so he never bothered and was never required to learn it. It was never a problem.

ancapailldorcha

Sam Russell wrote: »

I know someone (native UK/English) who took up a job at a Swiss university and it was a condition that he learned Swiss German. He never did because there was no recognised course that teaches Swiss German, so he never bothered and was never required to learn it. It was never a problem.

My mate moved to Paris to work for a biotech firm. The company works for officially works in English. However, he's had issues with colleagues speaking in French and he can't really ask them not to speak French in their own country. They have offered him lessons in fairness but it still takes a long time to go from LC French to fluency.

CelticRambler

Lemming wrote: »

Don't forget the 'Brain drain' effect as those Britons with qualifications and transferable skills all seek to leave too.

British qualifications will cease to be recognised as equivalent to those in the EU27 from 1st January 2021 (with a few very specific exceptions, e.g. UK veterinary qualifications will be recognised in Ireland)

Furthermore, without a deal, EU rules require employers in member states to offer jobs to EU/EEA citizens in preference to third country applicants, unless there are particular circumstances that warrant consideration of the non-resident.

So for professional qualifications, the existing language barrier will be reinforced by an administrative barrier. There won't be a "brain drain" as much as a "brain withering" as the current talent retires, dies or (in the case of EU brains) returns to the EU to take advantage of better funding/career opportunities/family advantages.

moon2

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

True but that flow doesn't go the other way as easily. British aversion to free movement cuts both ways.

The UK is unique in that it boast elite universities
<snip>

Elite universities whose very eliteness is predicated on abiding by recognised standards.

The degrees would literally not be worth the paper they're printed on if the UK, due to deliberate choice or mismanagement, end up in a scenario where they lose their equivalency status in other countries.

Equivalency is already quite precarious. Not every degree, masters or PhD is transferrable. I would guess it wouldn't take a huge amount for the limited equivalency to be removed.

RobMc59

CelticRambler wrote: »

British qualifications will cease to be recognised as equivalent to those in the EU27 from 1st January 2021 (with a few very specific exceptions, e.g. UK veterinary qualifications will be recognised in Ireland)

Furthermore, without a deal, EU rules require employers in member states to offer jobs to EU/EEA citizens in preference to third country applicants, unless there are particular circumstances that warrant consideration of the non-resident.

So for professional qualifications, the existing language barrier will be reinforced by an administrative barrier. There won't be a "brain drain" as much as a "brain withering" as the current talent retires, dies or (in the case of EU brains) returns to the EU to take advantage of better funding/career opportunities/family advantages.

It`s coming to something when UK qualifications won`t be recognised in the EU.
Regarding `language barriers`,perhaps someone should inform Royal Dutch Shell the English language is no longer EU PC as they conduct all their corporate meetings in English according to a Shell employee I know.
Not getting at you specifically Celtic but the `Express`would be proud of some of the `scaremonger`type posts here recently.

CelticRambler

RobMc59 wrote: »

It`s coming to something when UK qualifications won`t be recognised in the EU.

Rules is rules. Today, a degree awarded by Oxford must be automatically recognised - for the purposes of exercising a profession anywhere in the EU - as one awarded by UCD or the Sorbonne or the University of Athens. Degrees awarded by Harvard or the University of Sydney are not automatically recognised, and the holder must satisfy the local supervising authority of their competence.

The UK has chosen to put itself outside the system of (automatic) mutual recognition of academic degrees, so ... rules is rules.

RobMc59 wrote: »

Regarding `language barriers`,perhaps someone should inform Royal Dutch Shell the English language is no longer EU PC as they conduct all their corporate meetings in English according to a Shell employee I know.

If you're working for a multinational, you can get away with not speaking the local language. But if you're working with members of the public, or in a smaller company where internal communications are carried out in the local language, then you've got to be able to speak it. My qualifications are recognised right across the EU, but I have only two languages of sufficient fluency to be able to ask the kinds of questions of ordinary people that enable me to do my work. That limits me to working in six of the 28 relevant countries.

(Incidentally, one of the most common complaints about EU-graduates of my profession working in the UK is that their standard of English is unacceptably low ... but because the UK doesn't produce enough graduates with the stamina to stick with the job for more than four years, employers have no choice but to fill vacancies with non-English speakers.)

Lemming

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

IF Johnson turns on the spending taps, IF people visibly see their communities and living circumstances improve and IF there are more good quality jobs and training programmes along with more affordable housing then maybe he can build himself a base for 2024 but those are colossal ifs.

For those people whose anger is economic and/or social then it's a colossal "If" but it's clear that they're banking on a) no second wave and b) people forgetting/forgiving it all by Christmas; just in time for the 1st of January. Needless to say, the chances of achieving such a colossal "if" is remote. There goes any "levelling up" of t'North so there go a **** load of "new" Tory seats that will not be back any time soon once they're gone.

And all of that ignores what I was getting at anyway. There'll be a lot of people grieving over loved ones who - quite simply put - did not need to die owing to the governments deliberate delays and mismanagement. Does anyone think for a second that they'll be forgetting or forgiving any time soon? How about at Christmas when they'll be given cruel reminders of their loss? Ok, how about a few months into the No-FTA sh1t-show around March when they come up on the anniversaries of their loved ones deaths? And all of this assumes no second wave of Covid-19.

Johnson is going down; not over Brexit but over Covid-19. The No-FTA/brexit sh1t-show will at that point just be the extra serrated edges on the proverbial blade as it twists in his corpulent waste of space for a political existence.

The UK is unique in that it boast elite universities, a vibrant economy, low unemployment and opportunities for anyone who wants to move here and contribute as well as being English speaking which also confers advantages as English is the official language of the EU and is the easiest language Europeans have to communicate with as many of them learn in as part of their education.

That's all fine and well until .. well "Money talks & bullsh1t walks". If you've got no local job prospects after you graduate from any university well then it's a bit of an (pardon the pun) academic argument.

ambro25

RobMc59 wrote: »

It`s coming to something when UK qualifications won`t be recognised in the EU.
Regarding `language barriers`,perhaps someone should inform Royal Dutch Shell the English language is no longer EU PC as they conduct all their corporate meetings in English according to a Shell employee I know.
Not getting at you specifically Celtic but the `Express`would be proud of some of the `scaremonger`type posts here recently.

I've got 4+ year old posts in earlier incarnations of this thread warning about exactly that, and guess what?

The subject of that warning has since been confirmed and incorporated into official UK & EU Brexit-related policy documents, concerned with each previous instance of incoming 'no deal' situation.

There is nothing new whatsoever to this issue of interrupted mutual recognition of qualifications, it was 100% predictable, and 100% predicted, before the referendum itself.

The reason why these consequences of Brexit were predictable and predicted before the referendum, and remain as predictable (and unavoidable) in the case of no deal by 1st January 2021, is elementarily simple, if one understands how a situation (eg mutual recognition of academic/professional qualifications) exists and endures under a variety of statutes and agreements, and that this situation ends on the first hour of the first day that these statutes and agreements cease to apply to the signatories.

Mutual recognition of academic/professional qualifications between the UK and the rest of the EU existed under a variety of EU legal instruments transposed into UK law.

From Brexit day, 1st Feb 2020, mutual recognition of academic/professional qualifications between the UK and the EU27 continued as before under the Withdrawal Agreement, which maintained the effect of that variety of EU legal instruments transposed into UK law (even though they had ceased to apply to the UK, as an ex-EU member state from that time).

In the absence of a new agreement between the UK and the EU27 by the end of the Withdrawal Agreement, on 1st January 2021, which would maintain the effect of that variety of EU legal instruments transposed into UK law for still longer, then mutual recognition of academic/professional qualifications between the UK and the EU27 ends automatically, since the treaty that was maintaining it, the Withdrawal Agreement, is no more.

Imreoir2

We are told that any potential negative consequence of Brexit is "scaremongering".

When that negative consequence is proven to be a reality, we are told that the British public fully understood what they were voting for and as such the UK is more than happy to live with the consequence for the sake of Brexit.

At the same time, these consequences that the UK fully understood and voted for, are evidence of how terrible the EU is.

BonnieSituation

Enzokk wrote: »

So we should give them what they want because you think the EU will not be able to do anything quickly against the EU? Because that seems to be your argument that the UK will be able to delay implementation and cause damage to the EU single market. The EU will move quickly when it needs to. The question is, what countries in the EU will oppose measures against the UK if the EU project is being threatened?

So unless a EU member will go to bat for the UK when it is a third country when they didn't do it when the UK was a member, surely you should expect the EU to react quickly to protect itself. If that means short term pain with services for the EU to move a lot of the work from the UK not to reward them for breaking their side of a legal agreement, then that is what will happen.

These hypotheticals that get thrown about are always so frustrating.

It's exactly like the argument you hear that "we shouldn't have a border poll because the loyalists might kick off", or more recently, that Irishwoman's gravestone in Coventry that might offend some future wanderer through its grounds that didn't understand the Irish language.

You're 100% in your argument here Enzo.

Just another news item, the noises still seems to indicate no extension. It would be some u-turn to ask for an extension later this month.

https://twitter.com/Brexit/status/1270436344104353793?s=20

Tbf to this UK government, the optics of a u turn haven't stopped them making it at any point.

I'd say they will ask for one, blame EU intransigence and "look at these letters from Barnier", and that will be that. Personally, I want them not to bother as I'm sick of them and want the entire edifice to crumble.

Imreoir2

Imreoir2 wrote: »

We are told that any potential negative consequence of Brexit is "scaremongering".

When that negative consequence is proven to be a reality, we are told that the British public fully understood what they were voting for and as such the UK is more than happy to live with the consequence for the sake of Brexit.

At the same time, these consequences that the UK fully understood and voted for, are evidence of how terrible the EU is.

That's a personal favourite of mine from this clownshow. "They knew!" and then leave out that they themselves deemed it to be Project Fear.

Seth Brundle

RobMc59 wrote: »

It`s coming to something when UK qualifications won`t be recognised in the EU.
Regarding `language barriers`,perhaps someone should inform Royal Dutch Shell the English language is no longer EU PC as they conduct all their corporate meetings in English according to a Shell employee I know.
Not getting at you specifically Celtic but the `Express`would be proud of some of the `scaremonger`type posts here recently.

Are you suggesting that English is no longer a language of the EU?
It still is (sure we use it!): https://europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/eu-languages_en
As the British are no longer EU members, it is thought that a dialect of English will continue, most likely an Irish version of English.

Sam Russell

Brexit is not the number one problem for the EU. Brexit is done - they have left and whether they request an extension or not, or whether they agree a FTA or not, Brexit is done.

The problems facing the EU - in no particular order :-

the German Constitutional Court calling QE into question, claiming that it is against the German Constitution and is Ultra Vires for the EUCB.

The Polish interference with Judicial appointments.

The Hungarian President taking power away from democratic institutions to himself.

The migration problem has not gone away.

The economic crisis emanating from Covid19.

The large hole in the EU budget that no-one wants to fill from their own pockets.

Plus a few more that I cannot think of at the moment.

declanflynn

Sam Russell wrote: »

Brexit is not the number one problem for the EU. Brexit is done - they have left and whether they request an extension or not, or whether they agree a FTA or not, Brexit is done.

The problems facing the EU - in no particular order :-

the German Constitutional Court calling QE into question, claiming that it is against the German Constitution and is Ultra Vires for the EUCB.

The Polish interference with Judicial appointments.

The Hungarian President taking power away from democratic institutions to himself.

The migration problem has not gone away.

The economic crisis emanating from Covid19.

The large hole in the EU budget that no-one wants to fill from their own pockets.

Plus a few more that I cannot think of at the moment.

Is the uk facing any problems?