Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

RobMc59

Peregrinus wrote: »

Work, discoveries, inventions etc are recognised according to their own merits. Your invention is not deemed to be useful merely because you have a master's degree in engineering (say) from a reputable university; it has to be actually useful. And conversely your invention is not deemed to be useless merely because you don't have a master's degree in engineering (or because you have a degree from a foreign institution).

I can see your point but believe there are possible scenarios where questions of alignment would be overlooked if in everyone's interests. For example, could you see any future medical discoveries during a second epidemic by an unaligned UK rejected until tested by the EU?

Imreoir2

RobMc59 wrote: »

I can see your point but believe there are possible scenarios where questions of alignment would be overlooked if in everyone's interests. For example, could you see any future medical discoveries during a second epidemic by an unaligned UK rejected until tested by the EU?

Yes, of course. Medical devices and treatments have to go through rigerous testing. If someone were to develop a treatment in the UK, they would be rather foolish to limit themselves to the small UK market and not submit it for testing in the EU, US etc. They may be required to form a company within the EU to sell their product, if approved, within the single market, and pay taxes on their profits within the EU.

That has nothing to do with recognition of profesional qualifications though.

looksee

RobMc59 wrote: »

I can see your point but believe there are possible scenarios where questions of alignment would be overlooked if in everyone's interests. For example, could you see any future medical discoveries during a second epidemic by an unaligned UK rejected until tested by the EU?

That seems quite likely, but not specifically because of the scientists' qualifications.

johnnyskeleton

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Mod note:

Last chance. You came on to post that Russia were putting the EU to shame by helping Italy while the EU did nothing. While the EU fiddled, was I think your terminology.

People have pointed out the inaccuracy of this and you refuse to engage with them, instead dumping links and then going off on tangents.

You can either discuss the issues raised by other posters, or stop posting. This is a discussion forum, after all.

RobMc59 wrote: »

I thought the 'have our cake and eat it' approach was the intellectual property of the UK?

RobMc59 wrote: »

I can see your point but believe there are possible scenarios where questions of alignment would be overlooked if in everyone's interests. For example, could you see any future medical discoveries during a second epidemic by an unaligned UK rejected until tested by the EU?

Mod note:

Banned for persistent trolling

farmerval

At the risk of reopening something from a few pages back, will the possibility of educational qualifications no longer having automatic recognition in the EU potentially be a big issue for foreign students coming to the UK to study?

I believe that a lot of the consequences of a no deal will be easy to see, I think a lot will be the less obvious, like the ones above, where the UK is just not worth the hassle. Imagine even a lot of companies selling products worldwide, will the UK be seen in a different light when automatic access to the EU was no longer available. Indeed where would we be without open EU access?

I don't believe there will be shortages on shelves post a hard brexit, some goods may be a bit more scarce, but ultimately supply chains are built to overcome disruption, prices may rise to compensate extra cost in getting some goods imported, but they will still generally be available.

Of much much greater issue will be as multi nationals and indeed British companies make investment decisions etc.

We could end up witnessing an incredible social experiment in how British people accept negative changes in their lives because they voted for it. If the £ tumbles and foreign holidays get more expensive, more awkward with travel etc, how will they react?

Incidentally I reckon the Tories determination to get cheap food of whatever standard on British tables is a very deliberate tactic to stall inflation with a falling currency. The Tories have always favored a cheap food policy to help keep low wages in their economy.

BonnieSituation

farmerval wrote: »

At the risk of reopening something from a few pages back, will the possibility of educational qualifications no longer having automatic recognition in the EU potentially be a big issue for foreign students coming to the UK to study?

I believe that a lot of the consequences of a no deal will be easy to see, I think a lot will be the less obvious, like the ones above, where the UK is just not worth the hassle. Imagine even a lot of companies selling products worldwide, will the UK be seen in a different light when automatic access to the EU was no longer available. Indeed where would we be without open EU access?

I don't believe there will be shortages on shelves post a hard brexit, some goods may be a bit more scarce, but ultimately supply chains are built to overcome disruption, prices may rise to compensate extra cost in getting some goods imported, but they will still generally be available.

Of much much greater issue will be as multi nationals and indeed British companies make investment decisions etc.

We could end up witnessing an incredible social experiment in how British people accept negative changes in their lives because they voted for it. If the £ tumbles and foreign holidays get more expensive, more awkward with travel etc, how will they react?

Incidentally I reckon the Tories determination to get cheap food of whatever standard on British tables is a very deliberate tactic to stall inflation with a falling currency. The Tories have always favored a cheap food policy to help keep low wages in their economy.

Well, in a no deal scenario the UK can recognise whatever it wants. So if it deems a degree from Tampa Correspondence College to be good enough to enter a master's degree course in Cambridge or Loughborough then more power to them. It isn't relevant to us anymore so long as it doesn't affect us or the reputation of our standards.

That applies across the board.

CelticRambler

RobMc59 wrote: »

I can see your point but believe there are possible scenarios where questions of alignment would be overlooked if in everyone's interests. For example, could you see any future medical discoveries during a second epidemic by an unaligned UK rejected until tested by the EU?

There's no doubt about it: in the absence of a deal being agreed this year, from 1st January 2021 British medical discoveries (by which I presume you mean drugs or medical devices) will have to be fully certified by an EU-approved lab and granted an authorisation by the European Medicines Agency - an agency which was, until quite recently, based in London.

Every lab in the UK, which until now was deemed competent for the purposes of EU certification by the EMA, will lose that designation until it has made a new application, been inspected and satisfied the EMA that some dodgy deal with the US isn't going to undermine its standards. Remember: one of the supposed advantages of Brexit is the potential for divergence from EU norms.

So yes: in the absence of a deal that ensures continuity, the EU will reject all British qualifications, experience and competence until each individual and each institution demonstrates that it meets the EU standards in the relevant area. Third country rules are the same for everyone - and that's what the people voted for.

farmerval

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Well, in a no deal scenario the UK can recognise whatever it wants. So if it deems a degree from Tampa Correspondence College to be good enough to enter a master's degree course in Cambridge or Loughborough then more power to them. It isn't relevant to us anymore so long as it doesn't affect us or the reputation of our standards.

That applies across the board.

My point was, will Chinese or Japanese or whatever non European students decide to come to Britain to pay huge fees if there is a danger that British qualifications may not be recognized as readily across the EU.
The foreign student market is a huge one for UK institutions.

BonnieSituation

farmerval wrote: »

My point was, will Chinese or Japanese or whatever non European students decide to come to Britain to pay huge fees if there is a danger that British qualifications may not be recognized as readily across the EU.
The foreign student market is a huge one for UK institutions.

Caveat emptor applied there.

The UK though, should probably think long and hard about the effects of a no deal.

dresden8

farmerval wrote: »

My point was, will Chinese or Japanese or whatever non European students decide to come to Britain to pay huge fees if there is a danger that British qualifications may not be recognized as readily across the EU.
The foreign student market is a huge one for UK institutions.

Tories think that UK qualifications will be more valuable than EU qualifications.

That's not sarcasm. They really believe flying Spitifires and Lancasters over the white cliffs trumps all of Europe.

Worse, their followers believe their jingoistic English exceptionalism.

It's a car crash in slow motion.

**** them.

It's up to us to save ourselves.

Peregrinus

farmerval wrote: »

My point was, will Chinese or Japanese or whatever non European students decide to come to Britain to pay huge fees if there is a danger that British qualifications may not be recognized as readily across the EU.

I'm not sure that this would be a huge factor, to be honest? How many Chinese students come and study in the UK with a view to working in, say, Germany or Italy? It's a route that requires them to master two foreign language instead of one, and doesn't offer any compensating advantage.

Most Chinese students who study abroad return to China, where their foreign training and experience is highly valued. I don't think Brexit will affect the appeal of UK universities in that regard. And most Chinese students who study in the UK and then don't return to China are looking to make a career in the Anglosphere; Brexit won't signficantly affect that either.

Brexit is bad for the UK university sector and they generally strongly oppose it. But this isn't one of the bigger reasons for it being bad.

ambro25

farmerval wrote: »

My point was, will Chinese or Japanese or whatever non European students decide to come to Britain to pay huge fees if there is a danger that British qualifications may not be recognized as readily across the EU.
The foreign student market is a huge one for UK institutions.

The bigger problem for British universities with that market audience, will be to convince it that they retain their excellence -and associated value- despite the loss of involvement in EU programs and initiatives, of intellectual cross-pollination with EU27 academics, of a non-trivial section of their internationalised and distributed research teams, etc.

In STEM disciplines, I can see German Universities (amongst others in the EU27) making good gains at their expense.

54and56

Nigel Farage leaving LBC with immediate effect.

I for one will miss him in that he was a constant reminder of the little englander thinking which combined with mass dis-satisfaction about Austerity led to a protest vote the consequences of which will be felt (mostly by those who voted for it) for decades.

BonnieSituation

ambro25 wrote: »

The bigger problem for British universities with that market audience, will be to convince it that they retain their excellence -and associated value- despite the loss of involvement in EU programs and initiatives, of intellectual cross-pollination with EU27 academics, of a non-trivial section of their internationalised and distributed research teams, etc.

In STEM disciplines, I can see German Universities (amongst others in the EU27) making good gains at their expense.

Even on a personal level, there was a brief flirtation with a British Uni for my masters but they can't compete with Aalborg or Utrecht in my disciplines so it was never gonna be realistic.

The quality of focussed and specialised universities in Europe is so great and the financial strain is relatively so small and coupled with a quality of life you could only dream of in Britain, that for me it was clearly a no brainer to go to the continent.

I'm sure I'm not alone in that regard.

Import anything you like from the EU into the UK after 1 Jan, checks will be very limited.

UK 'abandons full EU Brexit border checks' - FT

The UK has abandoned plans for full border checks with the EU on 1 January amid pressures caused by the coronavirus pandemic, the Financial Times reports


.
Cabinet Office minister Michael Gove has accepted that businesses cannot cope with problems stemming from the outbreak and at the same time deal with post-Brexit disruption at the border, the FT says.
Instead, the government will bring in a temporary light-touch system at ports, the paper reports.

BonnieSituation

Deleted User wrote: »

Import anything you like from the EU into the UK after 1 Jan, checks will be very limited.

So then the border in the Irish Sea comes into play big time then.

Leroy42

BonnieSituation wrote: »

So then the border in the Irish Sea comes into play big time then.

If they are not going to bother controlling what comes in from outside, they are certainly not going to bother with internal border.

There will end up being a NI border.

CelticRambler

So we don't need a trade deal then? No quotas and no tariffs on EU exports to the UK? Sounds like the kind of arrangement we could live with for a fair while.

BonnieSituation

Leroy42 wrote: »

If they are not going to bother controlling what comes in from outside, they are certainly not going to bother with internal border.

There will end up being a NI border.

Well, they're pretty screwed so.

AngryHippie

Pity the oil prices have come back up.
Could have been worth a nice storage facility up near the border. :eek:

Patser

This is just insanity - a green light to smugglers into the UK - we won't be ready, so will go light touch on whatever you need to import. They are putting their whole domestic market at risk. The EU will almost certainly be ready, especially if the UK keep up their belligerent approach to the current negotiations, so their exports will suffer from whatever trade barriers pop up - and now they are saying that their own barriers will be porous, meaning imports can sneak in, standards may be all over the place and their tax revenue will be down and unreliable.

And they are trying to portray this as strength, that they will still be taking back control and no more delays.

Dogmatic insanity

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-53018020

Leroy42

So not technically a uturn, more a delay.

But it highlights a number of key points.

UK is threatening No Deal without the ability to actually carry it out.
By acknowledging that business isn't ready and cannot suffer more on top of Covid, it acknowledges that borders are a cost to business.
This removes any incentive for the likes of Japan or US, well any country, to move quickly on a trade deal since from 1st Jan they will have free access.
If you are a UK based business importing a tariff affected product, wait to import until 1st January to avoid the tariffs.
Illegal Immigration is going to increase.
4 years after promising to control our own borders the UK government has admitted that, even temporarily although no actual time frame is given, it has actually lost all control.

farmerval

Leroy42 wrote: »

So not technically a uturn, more a delay.

But it highlights a number of key points.

UK is threatening No Deal without the ability to actually carry it out.
By acknowledging that business isn't ready and cannot suffer more on top of Covid, it acknowledges that borders are a cost to business.
This removes any incentive for the likes of Japan or US, well any country, to move quickly on a trade deal since from 1st Jan they will have free access.
If you are a UK based business importing a tariff affected product, wait to import until 1st January to avoid the tariffs.
Illegal Immigration is going to increase.
4 years after promising to control our own borders the UK government has admitted that, even temporarily although no actual time frame is given, it has actually lost all control.

The BBC article states that it's imports from the EU will have a "light touch" on inspections. I assume this is for two reasons; a. the one stated they don't have the capacity with Covid problems to sort out and b. they want to keep supply chains flowing, they know that in general there won't be an issue with the quality of what they are importing, so the cost to business and possibly more importantly to save face they will wave everything through.
Then they can say, look no deal and no disruption, where's the remoaners now!!!

Nody

farmerval wrote: »

The BBC article states that it's imports from the EU will have a "light touch" on inspections. I assume this is for two reasons; a. the one stated they don't have the capacity with Covid problems to sort out and b. they want to keep supply chains flowing, they know that in general there won't be an issue with the quality of what they are importing, so the cost to business and possibly more importantly to save face they will wave everything through.
Then they can say, look no deal and no disruption, where's the remoaners now!!!

Problem here is this only applies to domestic consumption; anything UK wants to export will hit the trade tariff wall with EU (and the rest of the world). And this still means Dover-Calais queues for outbound trucks etc. is still in play (and in general if companies can't export be it services or products that will keep a lot of companies shutting down and with Covid already going on their resilience and ability to prepare compared to "normal" is even worse)...

ambro25

farmerval wrote: »

The BBC article states that it's imports from the EU will have a "light touch" on inspections. I assume this is for two reasons; a. the one stated they don't have the capacity with Covid problems to sort out and b. they want to keep supply chains flowing, they know that in general there won't be an issue with the quality of what they are importing, so the cost to business and possibly more importantly to save face they will wave everything through.
Then they can say, look no deal and no disruption, where's the remoaners now!!!

That is a big assumption, for a country with corporates of all types and sizes hell-bent on short-termist, hit-and-run profit maximisation.

I worked for about 2 decades at the IP coalface (incl.enforcement) in the UK and, where-there-is-a-buck-to-be-made-or-saved-by-cutting-corners (product quality, knock-offs, grey market, infringement, etc), I should know.

'Light touch' also frequently means, in UK governmental-speak, 'self-administered and self-regulated by private sector parties involved', like finances under Gordon Brown way-back-when, then more recently immigration by landlords and employers under Theresa May.

Gives a whole new dimension to the EU27's focus on GIs and rules of origin, as well.

Zubeneschamali

Coronavirus is just mentioned as a distraction, a smokescreen. Everyone knew a year ago that they could not possibly be ready with a real customs regime in this timeframe. They need, what, 40,000 more officers?

moon2

farmerval wrote: »

they know that in general there won't be an issue with the quality of what they are importing

They know that if they *want* to important goods which are of the right quality they will nearly definitely be able to do so without much bother.

Similarly, while there are no checks going on, anyone who wants to import cheap goods which aren't of the right quality can just as easily go ahead and do so.

And finally, anyone who wants to sneak in 100,000 cigarettes without paying duty on them will just slap a sticker on the boxes claiming they're importing paint and they'll be fine!

Peregrinus

This "light touch" thing is to be temporary; a pragmatic recognition of the fact that they are thorougnly unprepared for a no-FTA end to transition. Since critics of the government's approach to Brexit have been saying exactly that all along, we should perhaps be welcoming the dawning recognition on the part of HMG that this is not going so swimmingly as people were promised, and that that has real-world consequences.

The "light touch" strategy may be the only option the UK has left itself, but it has a number of obvious drawbacks:

- Potential for loss of revenue as it makes tariff evasion - deliberate or accidental - easy. There'll be a lot of accidental tariff evasion in the sense that UK importers (it's the UK importers who are responsible for paying UK tariffs) are wholly unprepared for the new systems because (a) the government has been unable to tell them what they should be preparing for, and (b) even if they knew what they were supposed to be doing, like most businesses, they have bigger fish to fry right now.

- Potential for noncompliant goods to enter the UK market. This is limited by the fact that, as announced, the light touch is mainly going to be applied to imports from the EU, and goods from the EU are highly likely to be compliant. But . . .

- Objections from non-EU countries - vociferous objections. WTO rules - remember those? - prevent the UK from affording more favourable treatment to the EU countries, unless they make an FTA with the EU. So if you admit imports from the EU without inspection or without checking that tariffs have been paid but don't afford the same treatment to imports from (say) the US, expect the US to get very truculent. Their exports to the UK are being put at a significant competitive disadvantage in the UK market by this discriminatory treatment. They will not be behind about pointing this out.

- Finally, this weakens the UK's (already weak) bargaining position vis-a-vis the EU. If in practice EU goods are admitted to the UK without tariffs being collected and without minimal cost and delay from inspection and other regulatory processes, so long as that treatment continues the EU's need for a trade deal with the UK is not so great - they are already getting, in practice, much of the treatment that they would hope to secure under an FTA. Whereas UK exporters are suffering all the disadvantages of not having an FTA with the EU.

Leroy42

So, faced with this option or an extension, the government has chosen this option?

It defies belief. They admit they are not ready, cannot be ready, and even throw it that it is due to Covid.

Yet they don't think an extension is worthwhile?

paul71

54and56 wrote: »

Nigel Farage leaving LBC with immediate effect.

I for one will miss him in that he was a constant reminder of the little englander thinking which combined with mass dis-satisfaction about Austerity led to a protest vote the consequences of which will be felt (mostly by those who voted for it) for decades.

2 well paying gigs he has lost in quick succession.