Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

Roanmore

paul71 wrote: »

2 well paying gigs he has lost in quick succession.

What was the other, MEP?

paul71

Roanmore wrote: »

What was the other, MEP?

Yes, ironic how hard brexit is hitting poor Nigel.

Roanmore

paul71 wrote: »

Yes, ironic how hard brexit is hitting poor Nigel.

:pac:

Funny enough, before the news broke yesterday I saw a few tweets on Twitter about him and was wondering if it would blow up.
A Jewish guy has come out and said Farage use to say things like "off to the gas chambers with you" and "Hitler was right about you guys".

Not sure if related but maybe LBC say the mood of the country and took the opportunity to cancel his contract before it turned in to something.

Seth Brundle

If the UK does go with this "light touch" nonsense, presumably because any old crap can enter the UK, it can then be used within supply chains and production.
Will the EU be forced to block UK imports unless they can verify beyond doubt that they meet EU standards?

Sam Russell

Seth Brundle wrote: »

If the UK does go with this "light touch" nonsense, presumably because any old crap can enter the UK, it can then be used within supply chains and production.
Will the EU be forced to block UK imports unless they can verify beyond doubt that they meet EU standards?

In a No Deal situation they will be doing that anyway.

The GB-NI interface will be crucial for us. I wonder how that will work out?

Professor Moriarty

Seth Brundle wrote: »

If the UK does go with this "light touch" nonsense, presumably because any old crap can enter the UK, it can then be used within supply chains and production.
Will the EU be forced to block UK imports unless they can verify beyond doubt that they meet EU standards?

The dissidents are rubbing their hands in glee as we speak.

Leroy42

Sam Russell wrote: »

In a No Deal situation they will be doing that anyway.

The GB-NI interface will be crucial for us. I wonder how that will work out?

It won't, the UK have no intention, or ability, ti implement the GB-NI border.

Where does that leave Ireland? Time to make plans for a hard border.

Sam Russell

Leroy42 wrote: »

It won't, the UK have no intention, or ability, ti implement the GB-NI border.

Where does that leave Ireland? Time to make plans for a hard border.

That hard border needs to be in Calais, for Dover ferries.

Sam Russell

Sam Russell wrote: »

That hard border needs to be in Calais, for Dover ferries.

They don't even stop illegal migrants, what are they going to do when the boats start carrying contraband!

CelticRambler

Deleted User wrote: »

They don't even stop illegal migrants, what are they going to do when the boats start carrying contraband!

Based on recent behaviour, they'll remind people that it is their civic duty to respect the guidelines put in place for the good of the nation (terms, conditions and exemptions apply, especially if you're a minister or a political advisor or a recently incorporated business pursuing a lucrative government contract).

Leroy42

Sam Russell wrote: »

That hard border needs to be in Calais, for Dover ferries.

But that means that Ireland is effectively outside the single market doesn't it? All Irish shipments would need to be checked as we had no way to ensure that no UK products had entered our system.

ancapailldorcha

Sam Russell wrote: »

That hard border needs to be in Calais, for Dover ferries.

That's the UK's problem. I don't see why the French should be drafted in to help with the mess the Conservative party created.

seamus

I imagine the primary concern in terms of the borders is that Covid has devastated all attempts to stockpile key resources, and a full introduction of controls will absolutely lead to severe shortages and rationing in the UK.

While the light-touch/no controls policy will prevent shortages, uncontrolled smuggling is a price they're obviously willing to pay.

Which is absolutely insane when their economy has contracted 25% YoY and there is another option to prevent shortages *and* prevent smuggling from causnig more damage to the domestic economy.

It just further confirms for me that the end goal here is not a stronger Britain, but one which leaves it vulnerable to disaster capitalists and demagogues. A domestic economy in tatters, overrun with foreign contraband and immigrants, is one ready for "strong leadership" and small cabal of elites who own practically everything and everyone.

Sam Russell

Leroy42 wrote: »

But that means that Ireland is effectively outside the single market doesn't it? All Irish shipments would need to be checked as we had no way to ensure that no UK products had entered our system.

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

That's the UK's problem. I don't see why the French should be drafted in to help with the mess the Conservative party created.

The purpose of making the Calais Dover route a hard border for UK exports is to remind HMG that the EU expects the same HMG that their obligations re NI/GB must be sufficient that a hard border NI/Ireland is invisible and all products in circulation in NI comply with EU single market rules.

Once that GB/NI inspections guarantee that goods in NI comply, maybe a little slack (not literally) can be applied to ease the flow of UK exports through Calais.

The Calais inspections would not apply to goods travelling across the land bridge. [TIR rules apply]

Enzokk

No extension,

https://twitter.com/michaelgove/status/1271398188621193222?s=20

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1271405743158308869?s=20

It would really throw the cat among the pigeons if Johnson comes out of the meeting with Von Der Leyen with a request for extension, but I think it is clear now that while Johnson may have floating morals, the EU is one where he is steadfast on leaving. I think the article on backing remain was the lie and if he thought he would become PM by backing it he would have eaten his personal beliefs.

Add in a dash of Cummings and Gove, the real dangers for the UK and now in the worst position if you didn't want chaos and disaster, then it will be something so see once they have finished the relative calm of the transition period.

As for the border, I don't think if the predictions of trouble with trade becomes reality to the politicians in NI, there will be any trouble with them aligning their lot with the EU. I fell for Scotland though, being dragged into the storm by the likes of Johnson and Gove.

johnnyskeleton

CelticRambler wrote: »

So we don't need a trade deal then? No quotas and no tariffs on EU exports to the UK? Sounds like the kind of arrangement we could live with for a fair while.

A trade deal would still be required, even if there is a porous border. Most large companies are law abiding and so wouldn't want to get involved in smuggling. Many products e.g. fresh food can't go on a long winding trip through NI just to avoid customs.

The problem is that the UK and the EU will need to control its external frontiers if they are to trade with other nations. The EU also needs to know that prohibited or controlled goods are not being imported into the EU single market en mass via Northern Ireland.

It is a condition that the UK and EU could live with for a while e.g. 6-12 months, especially during covid. However, experience tells us that if the British govt got away with not putting in border controls for 6-12 months on an emergency basis, they would claim that they don't need border controls thereafter.

Basically, the problem isn't that goods can be smuggled across the border. It's that the UK will be in breach of it's agreement with the EU and in breach of WTO requirements. If these aren't remedied, the EU will have to seek to take sanctions against the UK or face violating the WTO rules and their various international Trade Agreements

Professor Moriarty

Enzokk wrote: »

No extension,

https://twitter.com/michaelgove/status/1271398188621193222?s=20

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1271405743158308869?s=20

It would really throw the cat among the pigeons if Johnson comes out of the meeting with Von Der Leyen with a request for extension, but I think it is clear now that while Johnson may have floating morals, the EU is one where he is steadfast on leaving. I think the article on backing remain was the lie and if he thought he would become PM by backing it he would have eaten his personal beliefs.

Add in a dash of Cummings and Gove, the real dangers for the UK and now in the worst position if you didn't want chaos and disaster, then it will be something so see once they have finished the relative calm of the transition period.

As for the border, I don't think if the predictions of trouble with trade becomes reality to the politicians in NI, there will be any trouble with them aligning their lot with the EU. I fell for Scotland though, being dragged into the storm by the likes of Johnson and Gove.

Unless Johnson intends to make Gove look like a fool, what exactly is the point now of the meeting between Johnson and Von Der Leyen? A chat about the weather?

Enzokk

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Unless Johnson intends to make Gove look like a fool, what exactly is the point now of the meeting between Johnson and Von Der Leyen? A chat about the weather?

I guess the focus will now be on movement on the FTA. But if the UK is looking for a US FTA then like you say, it will turn out to be a chat about the weather.

Michel Barnier confirming no extension so the focus is now on getting a deal ASAP.

https://twitter.com/MichelBarnier/status/1271409443050266624?s=20

I believe at the recent select committee meeting it was confirmed by the trade experts that the problem isn't the deal for business or customs, it is the time needed to implement the deal. That is why you shouldn't really be trying to get a deal at the last moment.

This thread explains why the EU likes to do their negotiations the way they do and why the idea of last minute deals with the EU isn't true,

https://twitter.com/ignaciobercero/status/1271303511217631232?s=20

Thread reader of the tweet thread

Seems like the UK will be looking at the US way of doing negotiations, where everything does get sorted at the last minute,

I remember my Korean counterpart explaining that negotiations with the US had been very different.Most chapters of Korus remained fully open until the last marathon week of negotiations.

During the TTIP negotiations,I explained often to my US counterparts the importance of this difference in negotiating methods.This point is well reflected in the TTIP chapter of Tony Gardner’s last book on EU-Us relations during his time as US Ambassador.

ancapailldorcha

Sam Russell wrote: »

The purpose of making the Calais Dover route a hard border for UK exports is to remind HMG that the EU expects the same HMG that their obligations re NI/GB must be sufficient that a hard border NI/Ireland is invisible and all products in circulation in NI comply with EU single market rules.

Once that GB/NI inspections guarantee that goods in NI comply, maybe a little slack (not literally) can be applied to ease the flow of UK exports through Calais.

The Calais inspections would not apply to goods travelling across the land bridge. [TIR rules apply]

Is this part of the WA though? The UK have already committed to no hard border in Ireland with the WA.

johnnyskeleton

Enzokk wrote: »

Michel Barnier confirming no extension so the focus is now on getting a deal ASAP.

Part of me thinks the EU should say "there will be no extension, and at the current rate no progress is being made. So we are taking focus away from making a deal and are going to concentrate instead of preparing for no deal. However, our proposals as set out in the Political Declaration are still available if the UK decides to reengage on that basis".

Partially this is because it is the reality at this stage (either the UK accepts a deal along the PD terms or it is no deal) but also because, in a sense, everything that Brexiteers say about the EU applies, in reality to them.

So Brexiteers say that the EU will cave at the last minute. In reality, it is the UK who will cave at the last minute (or not, in which case no deal).

I appreciate that the EU wants to seem to be reasonable and willing to negotiate right up to the end (for the benefit of third parties as much as anyone else) and maybe the EU optimistically believe that a deal can still be done. However, the EU is known as a tough negotiator, and it would seem logically that now is the time for them to bare their teeth a bit.

This thread explains why the EU likes to do their negotiations the way they do and why the idea of last minute deals with the EU isn't true,

Was it yourself who had the bon mot a few weeks ago about how when the EU "cave" at the last minute, it always seems to be on the terms that they had originally proposed?

Sam Russell

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Is this part of the WA though? The UK have already committed to no hard border in Ireland with the WA.

The WA requires the UK to maintain a situation such that the NI/Ireland border is invisible. Therefore, goods in circulation in NI must comply to EU standards such that they may be in free circulation in the EU.

There are exceptions for goods that have sole use in NI, but I cannot think of much that would fall into that category.

There was a news item saying that the UK customs will be testing in October software for trucks going to NI. The software would be similar to that for UK trucks transiting through Dover, but would be different cosmetics for political reasons.

J Mysterio

I watched Children of Men again the other night. On previous viewings, I had always thought it interesting to note the 'question left open' as to whether the continent was actually destroyed or not, as 'Britain soldiers on alone'. Feels like life is imitating art with this.

Enzokk

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Part of me thinks the EU should say "there will be no extension, and at the current rate no progress is being made. So we are taking focus away from making a deal and are going to concentrate instead of preparing for no deal. However, our proposals as set out in the Political Declaration are still available if the UK decides to reengage on that basis".

Partially this is because it is the reality at this stage (either the UK accepts a deal along the PD terms or it is no deal) but also because, in a sense, everything that Brexiteers say about the EU applies, in reality to them.

So Brexiteers say that the EU will cave at the last minute. In reality, it is the UK who will cave at the last minute (or not, in which case no deal).

I appreciate that the EU wants to seem to be reasonable and willing to negotiate right up to the end (for the benefit of third parties as much as anyone else) and maybe the EU optimistically believe that a deal can still be done. However, the EU is known as a tough negotiator, and it would seem logically that now is the time for them to bare their teeth a bit.




Was it yourself who had the bon mot a few weeks ago about how when the EU "cave" at the last minute, it always seems to be on the terms that they had originally proposed?

I think the EU will have an internal deadline to make sure they are prepared for whatever the requirements are for the arrangement from the 1st January. No use escalating tensions before it needs to be, but I think most would see the EU has been pragmatic in these negotiations and will continue to be while the UK has been idealistic and continues to be. Once this deadline is reached I assume the EU would be better served to let the UK know that it is time for the talks to end and preparations to start.

ambro25

Enzokk wrote: »

I think the EU will have an internal deadline to make sure they are prepared for whatever the requirements are for the arrangement from the 1st January. No use escalating tensions before it needs to be, but I think most would see the EU has been pragmatic in these negotiations and will continue to be while the UK has been idealistic and continues to be. Once this deadline is reached I assume the EU would be better served to let the UK know that it is time for the talks to end and preparations to start.

I've noted from recent officials-quoting tweets, that the EU seems to be starting with exactly that, right now. It's a bit fuzzy (I'm not exactly keeping detailed records), but it's a general impression I'm getting, of tone-hardening, and UK bullsh*t-kettling, from the EU side.

Beside Barnier basically calling it quits about an extension loud and clear (surprised me a bit, there), then e.g. today, according to Jennifer Merode (excellent journo to follow, @JenniferMerode), the EU Comm just called for details on how UK gov will implement Irish sea border, as recent white paper did not provide "sufficient operational details and we need to move from aspiration to operation and fast".

Might just be me, but it feels like there's a lot more of that "ok, now sh*t or get off the pot" vibe coming from the EU in the past week or two. About time, an'all.

CelticRambler

Enzokk wrote: »

I think the EU will have an internal deadline to make sure they are prepared for whatever the requirements are for the arrangement from the 1st January.

That deadline is the October summit, isn't it? That's when the new FTA has to be presented to, and agreed by, the heads of state before being returned to the individual EU member governments to be ratified. And therein lies the danger of the "last minute" myth - just because Johnson gets the nod from 27 other premiers doesn't mean the Spanish or Walloon parliament won't want to modify a phrase here or delete a paragraph there. When the EU is working towards a deeper relationship, a few months delay while the member states play petty politics is of little consequence; but working away from closer integration, with an end-date carved in stone, changes everything.

Shelga

I don’t think it can ever be said enough, how stupid and pointless this whole fiasco is.

Sam Russell

CelticRambler wrote: »

That deadline is the October summit, isn't it? That's when the new FTA has to be presented to, and agreed by, the heads of state before being returned to the individual EU member governments to be ratified. And therein lies the danger of the "last minute" myth - just because Johnson gets the nod from 27 other premiers doesn't mean the Spanish or Walloon parliament won't want to modify a phrase here or delete a paragraph there. When the EU is working towards a deeper relationship, a few months delay while the member states play petty politics is of little consequence; but working away from closer integration, with an end-date carved in stone, changes everything.

Now who would be interested in that kind of thing?

Spain - with Gibraltar in mind? Or France who wanted to prevent any extension to Art 50? Or other countries looking for a bit extra here and there for their own local benefit? Or even the European Parliament.

Of course they will all agree - because they need the UK more than the UK needs them.

J Mysterio

US message to Britain in bilateral trade talks: it’s us – or China

Guardian wrote:

The US government has been privately pressing the UK in bilateral trade talks to make a choice between the US and China.

The US is seeking to insert a clause that would allow it to retreat from parts of the deal if Britain reaches a trade agreement with another country that the US did not approve.

Everyone knew the US would bully the UK. They have already accepted sh1t meat etc., now the US want to approve any and all deals.

And the Tories so wanted to flood the market with Chinese tat.

Strazdas

The Brexit Ultras want out of the Single Market and an end to the transition no matter what the consequences.

It's difficult to see this ending well. The ideology of Brexit is being put ahead of everything (presumably Cummings is a big player here).

Zubeneschamali

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

the UK will be in breach of it's agreement with the EU and in breach of WTO requirements. If these aren't remedied, the EU will have to seek to take sanctions against the UK or face violating the WTO rules and their various international Trade Agreements

We won't be taking action because we've no choice, we will be taking action because finally, finally the gloves will be off and we can give them the kick in the nuts they've been asking for.