Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

Enzokk

The devolved administrations are not happy with the current government.

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1271502863915761671?s=20

Nothing new or earth shattering, this will be an English Brexit as the meeting with the leaders of Wales and Scotland was snubbed by those leaders as Gove and the government has decided already they will not ask for an extension, without even checking with the other nations.

A Dub in Glasgo

Enzokk wrote: »

Nothing new or earth shattering, this will be an English Brexit as the meeting with the leaders of Wales and Scotland was snubbed by those leaders as Gove and the government has decided already they will not ask for an extension, without even checking with the other nations.

The evidence so far from the Tories would prove Sturgeon and Drakeford right. To think there are people who actually think that the devolved governments have a say in anything

eire4

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

The evidence so far from the Tories would prove Sturgeon and Drakeford right. To think there are people who actually think that the devolved governments have a say in anything

As I have said before this whole Brexit fiasco will all but make a second independence referendum a certainty and IMHO will lead to a success this time and an independent Scotland rejoining the EU. It will be interesting to watch what Wales does over the next 5 years when the realities of Brexit begin to bite.

Headshot

eire4 wrote: »

As I have said before this whole Brexit fiasco will all but make a second independence referendum a certainty and IMHO will lead to a success this time and an independent Scotland rejoining the EU. It will be interesting to watch what Wales does over the next 5 years when the realities of Brexit begin to bite.

That's the hard part, how will they get that referendum, the Tories wont give it because they know they'll lose

A Dub in Glasgo

The Tories will not give another referendum so there will need to be some other strategy

Like this?

https://weegingerdug.wordpress.com/2020/06/09/breaking-the-impasse/

eire4

Headshot wrote: »

That's the hard part, how will they get that referendum, the Tories wont give it because they know they'll lose

IMHO I think the more the tories say no it just will lead to more and more support in Scotland for independence to the point a referendum would be a foregone conclusion. If they tories want to keep Scotland in the Union they would be better off allowing one asap and then they would have a chance of winning as support for independence in Scotland is not much north of 50% right now. But in a few years once Brexit has sunk in and if the tories keep saying no then IMHO they are just growing and growing support for independence in Scotland.

Headshot

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

The Tories will not give another referendum so there will need to be some other strategy

Like this?

https://weegingerdug.wordpress.com/2020/06/09/breaking-the-impasse/

That's an intriguing read and I would love to see a 2nd referendum happen tbh. It must be horrible to have a devolved government and have no real power

They're truly being ruled from abroad. Pity there's no article 50 they could trigger.

BonnieSituation

eire4 wrote: »

IMHO I think the more the tories say no it just will lead to more and more support in Scotland for independence to the point a referendum would be a foregone conclusion. If they tories want to keep Scotland in the Union they would be better off allowing one asap and then they would have a chance of winning as support for independence in Scotland is not much north of 50% right now. But in a few years once Brexit has sunk in and if the tories keep saying no then IMHO they are just growing and growing support for independence in Scotland.

What we've learned thus far is that these Tories can't get out of their own way. Full Dunning Kruger in effect. Let them at it.

Strazdas

Enzokk wrote: »

The devolved administrations are not happy with the current government.

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1271502863915761671?s=20

Nothing new or earth shattering, this will be an English Brexit as the meeting with the leaders of Wales and Scotland was snubbed by those leaders as Gove and the government has decided already they will not ask for an extension, without even checking with the other nations.

Every time this is brought up, it is arrogantly and instantly dismissed by the Brexit disciples on social media - "we voted to leave as one country". They don't give a flying fig about the three Celtic nations.

fash

I thought this was a good point:
https://twitter.com/GuitarMoog/status/1271434434814849036?s=20
Brexiting at this point of time imposes maximum damage on EU countries (and the UK too of course - but that is their choice).

sandbelter

eire4 wrote: »

IMHO I think the more the tories say no it just will lead to more and more support in Scotland for independence to the point a referendum would be a foregone conclusion. If they tories want to keep Scotland in the Union they would be better off allowing one asap and then they would have a chance of winning as support for independence in Scotland is not much north of 50% right now. But in a few years once Brexit has sunk in and if the tories keep saying no then IMHO they are just growing and growing support for independence in Scotland.

Actually, I think one of the reasons that Westminster is electing for a Hard Brexit is it will make Scotland and Northern Ireland even more dependent on their residual English market as they loose access to the single market.

Particularly as Scottish access to back to the single market must be thought of in the context of years.

Jizique

fash wrote: »

I thought this was a good point:
https://twitter.com/GuitarMoog/status/1271434434814849036?s=20
Brexiting at this point of time imposes maximum damage on EU countries (and the UK too of course - but that is their choice).

Did anyone ever read tweets from @irishmonk or @castlevillageman?
Account seems to have been closed in the last 24 hours.

Leroy42

fash wrote: »

Brexiting at this point of time imposes maximum damage on EU countries (and the UK too of course - but that is their choice).

Agree. It is an immensely selfish act, with not a care for either any of the other EU members, but particularly Ireland or indeed seemingly even their own country.

They have just witnessed a 25% fall in GDP and their decision is to create more uncertainty. They have successfully created the narrative that extension creates uncertainty, when yesterday's news that the border won't be ready until at least mid 2021 shows that 31 Dec spells uncertainty.

Of course, if one believes that Brexit really is the dawn if a new sunny uplands era then one could understand why it makes sense not to delay. But is there anyone claiming that No Deal is good for the UK?

fash

Jizique wrote: »

Did anyone ever read tweets from @irishmonk or @castlevillageman?
Account seems to have been closed in the last 24 hours.

Yes I had read this account - it had some good information/takes. Interesting to see it removed

swampgas

fash wrote: »

I thought this was a good point:
https://twitter.com/GuitarMoog/status/1271434434814849036?s=20
Brexiting at this point of time imposes maximum damage on EU countries (and the UK too of course - but that is their choice).

It's conceivable that Brexit isn't really about getting the UK out of the EU at all, but that it's really about damaging the EU, and destroying it if possible.

This makes more sense to me anyway, as Brexit from a purely UK perspective doesn't make much sense.

A few billionaires with an agenda, (and possibly one or more nation states with an interest in a weaker EU) have been able to use dodgy money to weaponise the UK as an instrument to undermine the EU.

A wealthy elite (in the true sense) have power over much of the UK's press, and through companies like Cambridge Analytica can manipulate what people read on the internet in ways that were never possible before.

The Tory party has been influenced and corrupted by large donations, and I suspect that one reason that Cummings is untouchable is that he has the support of the money men providing those funds.

The collapse of the UK itself would appear to be acceptable collateral damage in a long term war to eliminate the greatest threat to billionaires, autocrats and tax evaders the world has ever seen: a strong and successful EU.

The same tactics will be tried in other EU countries, and where there are cracks (Poland, Hungary, etc) I expect the media compaigns, and funny money are already at work to cause destabilisation and unrest.

A huge effort has gone into creating Brexit, getting it past a referendum, and into getting it done in the most damaging way possible to the EU. The current British government is in the pocket of those behind it. There is no way they will stop now when they are so close to achieving a major goal, and the damage to the UK as a whole has already been costed and accepted as a reasonable price to pay by those at the heart of the project.

BonnieSituation

swampgas wrote: »

It's conceivable that Brexit isn't really about getting the UK out of the EU at all, but that it's really about damaging the EU, and destroying it if possible.

This makes more sense to me anyway, as Brexit from a purely UK perspective doesn't make much sense.

A few billionaires with an agenda, (and possibly one or more nation states with an interest in a weaker EU) have been able to use dodgy money to weaponise the UK as an instrument to undermine the EU.

A wealthy elite (in the true sense) have power over much of the UK's press, and through companies like Cambridge Analytica can manipulate what people read on the internet in ways that were never possible before.

The Tory party has been influenced and corrupted by large donations, and I suspect that one reason that Cummings is untouchable is that he has the support of the money men providing those funds.

The collapse of UK itself would appear to be acceptable collateral damage in a long term war to eliminate the greatest threat to billionaires, autocrats and tax evaders the world has ever seen: a strong and successful EU.

The same tactics will be tried in other EU countries, and where there are cracks (Poland, Hungary, etc) I expect the media compaigns, and funny money are already at work to cause destabilisation and unrest.

A huge effort has gone into creating Brexit, getting it past a referendum, and into getting it done in the most damaging way possible to the EU. The current British government is in the pocket of those behind it. There is no way they will stop now when they are so close to achieving a major goal, and the damage to the UK as a whole has already been costed and accepted as a reasonable price to pay by those at the heart of the project.

I think that the weakness of Johnson is why the extension isn't being requested. If they request an extension then there's every chance that, at the current rate, there will be an election before the end of 2021 and a reinvigorated Labour with Starmer in charge will massacre them.

They can't risk that, so it's best to just get it all done before that happens.

Imreoir2

sandbelter wrote: »

Actually, I think one of the reasons that Westminster is electing for a Hard Brexit is it will make Scotland and Northern Ireland even more dependent on their residual English market as they loose access to the single market.

Particularly as Scottish access to back to the single market must be thought of in the context of years.

Whatever about Scotlands pathway back to the EU, NI's pathway is clear and in legal terms straighforward.

listermint

BonnieSituation wrote: »

I think that the weakness of Johnson is why the extension isn't being requested. If they request an extension then there's every chance that, at the current rate, there will be an election before the end of 2021 and a reinvigorated Labour with Starmer in charge will massacre them.

They can't risk that, so it's best to just get it all done before that happens.

I submit that this whole fiasco goes beyond party politics.


The Tories are merely a vehicle now for an outcome.


Politics is well past now . This is real subversive money actions.

BonnieSituation

listermint wrote: »

I submit that this whole fiasco goes beyond party politics.


The Tories are merely a vehicle now for an outcome.


Politics is well past now . This is real subversive money actions.

And you think that Labour will be infiltrated in the same way and turn into Tories in attitude to Brexit?

Enzokk

Tony Connelly with another update on the negotiations,

Brexit: No light ahead of the tunnel

The article recalls what led to the WA being agreed and how it happened. Basically after Merkel told Johnson his plans will not work the meeting with Varadkar opened the pathway to the deal that was agreed.

That was how the deal ended up. Officials had to hammer out the details in time for an EU summit on 17 October, with the agreement only getting over the line as EU leaders were arriving in Brussels.

However, very few changes were required of the existing Withdrawal Agreement, which the House of Commons had rejected on four occasions.

"It looks pretty much like the deal of last November [2018]." says one source. In the final deal the UK-wide customs union was removed, as was any reference to how the future relationship would make the backstop fall away.

Officials then inserted paragraphs to facilitate the Stormont consent clause, to create a rebate system for tariffs on goods coming from Great Britain, and to provide for EU state aid rules continuing to apply in Northern Ireland.

It touches on the notion that deals are made at the last minute and reading this paragraph would lead you to think this is true, but the opposite is actually true. The closer it comes to the deadline the less you can focus on in detail. So if the UK planned to take the negotiations down to the wire the options would have become limited to the agreements out there already. Basically the stairs we have seen many times.

But interestingly it seems it is no the UK delaying right now, it is actually the EU that is putting the brakes on. Not only because it will be in our interest, but because there hasn't been progress on a lot of the outstanding issues. The UK wanted to go into the tunnel in July, the EU rejected this because there hasn't been sufficient progress on LPF, fisheries and security. But there will be more meetings in the next weeks until the end of July to try and speed up the progress.

The other interesting point, it is not just Barnier delaying but Germany is not in a rush. They will have the rotating EU presidency from 1 July and their priority is the EU budget for the next 7 years and then the fallout from coronavirus. The UK being seen as difficult is low on their priorities right now and it is helpful that delaying the talks works in the EU's favour as well. Bad luck for the UK when there is legitimate matters that takes precedence.

Finally, the last few paragraphs grabbed my attention,

Furthermore, London’s dogged rejection of an extension to the transition period has left member states highly unsympathetic to any desperate pleas to speed things up.

However, the diplomat adds: "Nobody wants the UK not to thrive economically. This is not what we’re interested in. It’s an important market for us. But it cannot thrive at our expense.

"There is significant distance on a few major issues, but I don’t think we are too far apart on others. These are the logical consequences of proximity, the interconnection, and the fact that the UK does not want to burn bridges in the areas they are interested in."

So there we have it, the UK will not be punished but they will not be given the chance to undermine the EU.

First Up

Deals are not made "at the last minute".

The UK postures, waves flags and boasts about its strength until the last minute.

Then it caves in and agrees to do what it has been told to do.

Nody

Enzokk wrote: »

The other interesting point, it is not just Barnier delaying but Germany is not in a rush. They will have the rotating EU presidency from 1 July and their priority is the EU budget for the next 7 years and then the fallout from coronavirus. The UK being seen as difficult is low on their priorities right now and it is helpful that delaying the talks works in the EU's favour as well. Bad luck for the UK when there is legitimate matters that takes precedence.

This reminds me of the "It was Tuesday" scene from the Street Fighter movie which is very apt to be honest. UK thinks they are the center of the universe and everything spins around their desires, needs and wants and the rest of the world simply goes, "Oh, you're still here?". I think it will be a brutal surprise to them how little UK actually matters in the scheme of things in practice.

Jizique

Nody wrote: »

This reminds me of the "It was Tuesday" scene from the Street Fighter movie which is very apt to be honest. UK thinks they are the center of the universe and everything spins around their desires, needs and wants and the rest of the world simply goes, "Oh, you're still here?". I think it will be a brutal surprise to them how little UK actually matters in the scheme of things in practice.

I was flicking through some of the German papers like FAZ and SPIEGEL this morning and it barely warrants a mention

Leroy42

First Up wrote: »

Deals are not made "at the last minute".

The UK postures, waves flags and boasts about its strength until the last minute.

Then it caves in and agrees to do what it has been told to do.

Not what it is told to do.

It does the only option that it has. EU hasn't told it to do anything, it has given it options and UK need to pick one.

Sam Russell

Leroy42 wrote: »

Not what it is told to do.

It does the only option that it has. EU hasn't told it to do anything, it has given it options and UK need to pick one.

In life, one's choices diminish as time gets closer to the time to make that decision, and the decision is not made. In the end, if the decision is not made in time, it is made for you.

If the UK leaves its Brexit decision too close to the December 31st date, it will only have two choices - No Deal, or Brino. There will be no other choices, and even now, it might have no other choices because as every day passes, it has fewer friends, and it needs as many friends as it can muster.

It will need free access to the single market to not need customs for its exports and imports. It has already admitted that it cannot get that ready in time as not only does it not have enough customs officers, it does not have enough freight forwarders to complete the customs paperwork. It will need these even in a no deal scenario, so how is that going to work out.

It can get over the NI/GB border problem by routing all traffic from GB to NI through Dublin where 60% goes anyway. Much of the remaining could be sourced south of the border anyway.

It is looking blacker by the day.

Leroy42

Even the announcement of the delay in border controls was quite amazing.

No question that it is actually against the rules, no acknowledgement that it shows that have utterly failed to prepare.

If you are the EU this gives no incentive to offer a deal. They already have, in effect, a FTA running till at least next July.

It was quite an astonishing climbdown and admittance by the UK. All the bluff about bringing it down to the wire, the EU will blink first. The EU have been given a free extra transition period in terms of EU access to UK.

I am amazed how little actual commentary there has been about it.

First Up

Leroy42 wrote:

Not what it is told to do.

It does the only option that it has. EU hasn't told it to do anything, it has given it options and UK need to pick one.

Well yes, the EU spells out the consequences of each of the UK's options. Problem is that none of the choices (or their consequences) match what the Brexiteers had in mind.

johnnyskeleton

Nody wrote: »

This reminds me of the "It was Tuesday" scene from the Street Fighter movie which is very apt to be honest.

Ahhh, the classics! Though I hope you aren't suggesting that the EU is a brutal dictator in this particular scenario, killing the brave but simple farmers of the UK?

UK thinks they are the center of the universe and everything spins around their desires, needs and wants and the rest of the world simply goes, "Oh, you're still here?". I think it will be a brutal surprise to them how little UK actually matters in the scheme of things in practice.

In a weird way, they are the centre of, if not the universe, at least attention at the moment. Not, however, for good reasons. I can't imagine many people in the UK consult France24 or Deutsche Welt's English language broadcasts, nevermind what is said in other languages, so they don't really have much idea as to what is being thought of them in other EU countries.

But people in other countries are facinated by Brexit. I've heard Dutch people compare the House of Commons to a Reality TV show that you know you shouldn't watch but can't help tuning in as a guilty pleasure. For others, it's a distraction from domestic problems. But lots of people in Europe are following what the British are saying, but few in Britain are following what people in the EU are saying.

So yeah, everyone is looking on at the British, and they seem to be enjoying the spotlight. But they don't realise that we are looking on as at a horror show, and are using the information to better prepare our countries for what will happen. Meanwhile, they are blinded by the lights and absolutely self satisfied with their newfound "popularity".

johnnyskeleton

Jizique wrote: »

I was flicking through some of the German papers like FAZ and SPIEGEL this morning and it barely warrants a mention

Probably because most Germans can speak English so can read British news if they want, coupled with the fact that Britain saying they weren't extending is nothing new, in a sense, and them messing up the Irish border is neither that important to German interests, nor that surprising to the German view of Britain.