Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

Jizique

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Probably because most Germans can speak English so can read British news if they want, coupled with the fact that Britain saying they weren't extending is nothing new, in a sense, and them messing up the Irish border is neither that important to German interests, nor that surprising to the German view of Britain.

Not true, they just don’t seem to care any more. There was some coverage of the football hooligans attacking the police today, so that isn’t something they were happy to read about in the British papers

Nody

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Ahhh, the classics! Though I hope you aren't suggesting that the EU is a brutal dictator in this particular scenario, killing the brave but simple farmers of the UK?

Nah; EU would be more along the lines of Honda in the whipping scene; remaining serene and frustrating the opponent in the trade deal.

Jizique

fash wrote: »

Yes I had read this account - it had some good information/takes. Interesting to see it removed

It’s back - think there was a lot of abuse from ex-service who took offense at his postings; seems to have lost 10k followers but is definitely back and active

J Mysterio

Funny how the carry on in the UK is reminding different people of random different films: for me, Children of Men, for others, Street Fighter. That could be a real rabbit hole, but either way, we have to turn to fiction to characterise this mania.

fash

link
Boris Johnson faces losing billions if he bans Huawei in the UK
China has threatened to pull out of major UK infrastructure projects including a nuclear power deal if the UK ditches Huawei.

Taking back control!
Schadenfreude ist doch die schönste Freude...

First Up

johnnyskeleton wrote:

But people in other countries are facinated by Brexit. I've heard Dutch people compare the House of Commons to a Reality TV show that you know you shouldn't watch but can't help tuning in as a guilty pleasure. For others, it's a distraction from domestic problems. But lots of people in Europe are following what the British are saying, but few in Britain are following what people in the EU are saying.

Hogwash.

I am in contact with policy makers, analysts, industrialists, NGOs and others across EU member states and in the EU itself. Nobody cares what the UK thinks, says or does. They have been written off and written out.

Other than tidying up some loose ends from Brexit, they are rarely even mentioned.

Wanderer78

fash wrote:

Boris Johnson faces losing billions if he bans Huawei in the UK China has threatened to pull out of major UK infrastructure projects including a nuclear power deal if the UK ditches Huawei.

Boris doesn't care as he personally will be fine no matter what happens, the average brit though may not be fine at the end of all this

Leroy42

Wanderer78 wrote: »

Boris doesn't care as he personally will be fine no matter what happens, the average brit though may not be fine at the end of all this

The average Brit has chosen this path.

CelticRambler

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

But people in other countries are facinated by Brexit. I've heard Dutch people compare the House of Commons to a Reality TV show that you know you shouldn't watch but can't help tuning in as a guilty pleasure. For others, it's a distraction from domestic problems. But lots of people in Europe are following what the British are saying, but few in Britain are following what people in the EU are saying.

At a social event (in France, before lockdown) I was chatting to a woman who turned out to be a psychologist/counsellor. She was very interested in Brexit - because her clientele has been significantly inflated by English people struggling to cope with the continued uncertainty. She told me that, as one of the more fluent English-speaking practitioners in the area, her caseload now is almost entirely made up of victims of Brexit.

But even without that direct involvement, just about everyone I cross paths with knows what's going on, shakes their head in bewilderment ... and then gets back to discussing more important matters, like whether to chop or tear your salad leaves before putting the dressing on. :pac:

First Up

CelticRambler wrote:

But even without that direct involvement, just about everyone I cross paths with knows what's going on, shakes their head in bewilderment ... and then gets back to discussing more important matters, like whether to chop or tear your salad leaves before putting the dressing on.

The EU is acting like rubber neckers passing a car crash. They slow briefly to look and then keep going.

Wanderer78

Leroy42 wrote: »

The average Brit has chosen this path.

the average brit has been screwed for long, they chose poorly

Capt'n Midnight

fash wrote: »

link
Boris Johnson faces losing billions if he bans Huawei in the UK
China has threatened to pull out of major UK infrastructure projects including a nuclear power deal if the UK ditches Huawei.

Taking back control!
Schadenfreude ist doch die schönste Freude...

It's not just the money. There's a lot of generation capacity going off line in the foreseeable future.

The UK has 15 reactors generating about 21% of its electricity but almost half of this capacity is to be retired by 2025.
Coal is being phased out too in the next few years. Oh looks like Kilroot in NI will be converted to gas.
12% of UK gas and 5% of UK electricity is imported from the EU too.

At a guess the UK will be buying lots of gas turbines because they can be delivered in time, but that means importing more LNG from the US and all that entails.


But back to the Chinese.

Jingye paid about £50m for British Steel and promised a billion of future investment. China now owns the steelworks that will make the rails for HS2. It's a high status project and the projected budget overruns are already more than what the UK spends on defence in a single year. Something that can't have escaped the notice of the People's Liberation Army especially given their history of having to run their own factories to guarantee supply and quality in the past.

The French government meanwhile decided that the British Steel plant owned plant in Hayange that also makes steel rails is strategically essential

Sam Russell

How will UK cars fare in Ireland after a No Deal Brexit?

Will NI cars be treated differently? Will they need green cards, international DL, etc.?

Will the Gardai get access the the UK databases?

Hard to know.

Leroy42

Maybe it is just me, maybe it is me seeing what I want rather than what is there, but to me the language around the deal seems to have changed the last week or so.

Today Johnson has, apparently, urged VDL and the EU to get a del done by the end of the summer. It sounds bold and decisive, but since the UK ruled out an extension last week the call to land a deal by end of summer seems odd. Particularly given that they are well aware of the many sticking points that currently exist. And while I fully expect the EU to compromise on many of the areas, there are also many that the UK will have to compromise on.

Given that, I get the feeling that the UK could be getting ready to do a deal, close to BRINO deal. They hope to then sell it on the back of the fast approaching end of the transition (which they chose to draw a line under). All the polls would suggest that the majority would prefer a deal, so faced with a No Deal on 1st January, maybe they are betting that people will simply accept the best of a bad lot and look to move on.

They will stress that they are free to get FTA around the world, without ever really thinking that they will do much about it. My bet is that they will have the outline of a summary of a US-UK trade deal to announce at the same time so that everything looks like it has come to fruition, when in fact not much has really changed.

Probably just being hopelessly optimistic.

Sam Russell

Leroy42 wrote: »

Maybe it is just me, maybe it is me seeing what I want rather than what is there, but to me the language around the deal seems to have changed the last week or so.

Today Johnson has, apparently, urged VDL and the EU to get a del done by the end of the summer. It sounds bold and decisive, but since the UK ruled out an extension last week the call to land a deal by end of summer seems odd. Particularly given that they are well aware of the many sticking points that currently exist. And while I fully expect the EU to compromise on many of the areas, there are also many that the UK will have to compromise on.

Given that, I get the feeling that the UK could be getting ready to do a deal, close to BRINO deal. They hope to then sell it on the back of the fast approaching end of the transition (which they chose to draw a line under). All the polls would suggest that the majority would prefer a deal, so faced with a No Deal on 1st January, maybe they are betting that people will simply accept the best of a bad lot and look to move on.

They will stress that they are free to get FTA around the world, without ever really thinking that they will do much about it. My bet is that they will have the outline of a summary of a US-UK trade deal to announce at the same time so that everything looks like it has come to fruition, when in fact not much has really changed.

Probably just being hopelessly optimistic.

I would think the if they want a deal, then BRINO is all that would work in the time available. If they announce a UK/USA deal at the same time, that would have to be compatible with BRINO which would make it a very hollow deal, with no chlorinated chicken, hormone beef, or GMO foods. Possibly, only access to NHS drugs might be all they get.

BRINO solves NI, and Dover, and car assembly. Perhaps that is all that is needed. They can always renegotiate in a few years - (perhaps not - next stop, China).

johnnyskeleton

Maybe Johnson knows that if westminster has any time tondebate the issues, it wont pass. May let everyone know the detail and didnt get the WA through. Johnson got a worse WA through by bluffing till the last minute, taking anything and then saying "trust me or leave the party" to ram it through.


Maybe all this is Johnson just playing his own parliament for fools! Which is fine by me

serfboard

Well, this is funny:

The “End of Varadkar” was how the Daily Express reported the news of a programme for government deal reached between Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and the Green Party on Monday.

“Irish PM removed in coalition deal after YEARS of Brexit meddling” read a headline on the pro-Brexit British newspaper’s website, which described Taoiseach Leo Varadkar as a figure who had previously “sparked fury over his Brexit interventions”.
...
The Daily Express article stated the position of taoiseach would be rotated and held by Mr Martin until the end of 2022, without outlining that at that stage Mr Varadkar would again become taoiseach.

Remember when Leo became Taoiseach and they said how they would have gotten much better "cooperation" from Enda Kenny? And implying that Varadkar was almost a closet Sinn Feiner?

Absolutely hilarious how ignorant they are (pretending to be) if they think that Martin will make it easier for them than Varadkar.

Leroy42

It is also almost nice that they have so much flak to throw at Leo.

20 years ago I doubt that a paper like the Express even knew who the Taoiseach was, and now they are celebrating him being removed from office as they think it gives them a better chance to get a deal.

Sam Russell

Leroy42 wrote: »

It is also almost nice that they have so much flak to throw at Leo.

20 years ago I doubt that a paper like the Express even knew who the Taoiseach was, and now they are celebrating him being removed from office as they think it gives them a better chance to get a deal.

I thought the Express was of the view that No Deal would bring sovereignty back home, and anyway, they (the EU) will be begging for a deal as they need us more than we need them.

Seth Brundle

The Express is nothing but a rag but they seem to have an obsession with the EU.
Most of their top stories are about the EU.
They strangely have one headlined as: BRUSSELS CAVES: EU finally accepts UK will leave in 2020 - now just SIX weeks to save deal
Surely as journalists, they're aware that the UK has already left the EU?

Frank Bullitt

serfboard wrote: »

Well, this is funny:
Remember when Leo became Taoiseach and they said how they would have gotten much better "cooperation" from Enda Kenny? And implying that Varadkar was almost a closet Sinn Feiner?

Absolutely hilarious how ignorant they are (pretending to be) if they think that Martin will make it easier for them than Varadkar.

You'd have to wonder, what exactly is this type of reporting aiming to achieve? Make people in England not like Leo anymore?

Professor Moriarty

Gintonious wrote: »

You'd have to wonder, what exactly is this type of reporting aiming to achieve? Make people in England not like Leo anymore?

Demonise everyone who isn't a Tory - it's all about blame. Starmer, Sturgeon, von der Leyen, Merkel, Macron, Barnier, Verhofstadt. Leo is just next in line.

Frank Bullitt

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Demonise everyone who isn't a Tory - it's all about blame. Starmer, Sturgeon, von der Leyen, Merkel, Macron, Barnier, Verhofstadt. Leo is just next in line.

Basically a badge on honour so.

Professor Moriarty

Gintonious wrote: »

Basically a badge on honour so.

Well put!

johnnyskeleton

Seth Brundle wrote: »

The Express is nothing but a rag but they seem to have an obsession with the EU.
Most of their top stories are about the EU.

Owned by Richard Desmond:

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-52999732

It's readership is not exactly of the fact checking variety.

They also ran the story today that Ursula Von Der Leyen made "CRUCIAL compromises" today:

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1296213/brexit-news-UK-EU-Boris-Johnson-Ursula-von-der-Leyen-Charles-Michel-latest-update

The more sober press reports state that the parties agree to increase the speed of negotiations, but acknowledge that they are very far apart. One would think that the EU making concessions on key areas would be headline news for e.g. the BBC and all, but I guess not.

Enzokk

Leroy42 wrote: »

Maybe it is just me, maybe it is me seeing what I want rather than what is there, but to me the language around the deal seems to have changed the last week or so.

Today Johnson has, apparently, urged VDL and the EU to get a del done by the end of the summer. It sounds bold and decisive, but since the UK ruled out an extension last week the call to land a deal by end of summer seems odd. Particularly given that they are well aware of the many sticking points that currently exist. And while I fully expect the EU to compromise on many of the areas, there are also many that the UK will have to compromise on.

Given that, I get the feeling that the UK could be getting ready to do a deal, close to BRINO deal. They hope to then sell it on the back of the fast approaching end of the transition (which they chose to draw a line under). All the polls would suggest that the majority would prefer a deal, so faced with a No Deal on 1st January, maybe they are betting that people will simply accept the best of a bad lot and look to move on.

They will stress that they are free to get FTA around the world, without ever really thinking that they will do much about it. My bet is that they will have the outline of a summary of a US-UK trade deal to announce at the same time so that everything looks like it has come to fruition, when in fact not much has really changed.

Probably just being hopelessly optimistic.

It is probably just wishful thinking that we will have the UK settle for a BRINO deal. I think that is what most of us will prefer, but the noises from the UK and cabinet ministers doesn't lead me to think this is what they will settle for. Let us not forget who is in cabinet right now. While we can kid ourselves into thinking Johnson has no morals and will change with the wind, which I dispute, you still have Gove, Patel, Cummings, Rees-Mogg, Raab, Sunak and Braverman who were all in favour of leaving. I don't see how these people will go for a BRINO when you know it will be thrown in their faces.

I know they are not the brightest, but I doubt they are so dim they will not realise that they are doing a BRINO.

johnnyskeleton

Gintonious wrote: »

You'd have to wonder, what exactly is this type of reporting aiming to achieve? Make people in England not like Leo anymore?

It's like in George Orwell's 1984, where every day they have to have 2 minutes of hate. For 2 minutes each day, they show images of foreigner leaders and domestic dissenters and the crowd expresses (no pun intended) it's rage for 2 minutes. Then they go back to the building sites.

Though to be fair, the world of 1984 was very different. In it, the UK and America were one superstate called Oceania, while the rest of europe (inc Russia) were part of Eurasia, and China and India were Eastasia. It was the duty of the citizens of Oceania to celebrate their good relations with Eurasia because they were at war with Eastasia one day, then the next they would hate Eurasia because they had secretly been great admirers of Eastasia all along. The world as Brexiteers see it is nothing like that, I'm sure.

Professor Moriarty

Enzokk wrote: »

It is probably just wishful thinking that we will have the UK settle for a BRINO deal. I think that is what most of us will prefer, but the noises from the UK and cabinet ministers doesn't lead me to think this is what they will settle for. Let us not forget who is in cabinet right now. While we can kid ourselves into thinking Johnson has no morals and will change with the wind, which I dispute, you still have Gove, Patel, Cummings, Rees-Mogg, Raab, Sunak and Braverman who were all in favour of leaving. I don't see how these people will go for a BRINO when you know it will be thrown in their faces.

I know they are not the brightest, but I doubt they are so dim they will not realise that they are doing a BRINO.

Their economy is going to shrink by 8% this year. That alone will be catastrophic. Throw in a WTO Brexit and the UK will fragment as an economy and as a society. Not even the Tory press will save the Tories.

Leroy42

Enzokk wrote: »

It is probably just wishful thinking that we will have the UK settle for a BRINO deal. I think that is what most of us will prefer, but the noises from the UK and cabinet ministers doesn't lead me to think this is what they will settle for. Let us not forget who is in cabinet right now. While we can kid ourselves into thinking Johnson has no morals and will change with the wind, which I dispute, you still have Gove, Patel, Cummings, Rees-Mogg, Raab, Sunak and Braverman who were all in favour of leaving. I don't see how these people will go for a BRINO when you know it will be thrown in their faces.

I know they are not the brightest, but I doubt they are so dim they will not realise that they are doing a BRINO.

And yet they all signed up to the WA.

My thinking is that despite the rhetoric, they know they cannot simply No Deal. For a start they aren't even ready. So No Deal is off the table. They also know the ideal deal doesn't exist so compromise is necessary.

It won't be called BRINO of course. It, like the WA, will be lauded as Johnsons Churchill moment, sticking it to the EU bureaucrats. And the EU will happily play along, saying nothing but welcome the deal knowing that 90% of their goals were achieved.

Enzokk

Leroy42 wrote: »

And yet they all signed up to the WA.

My thinking is that despite the rhetoric, they know they cannot simply No Deal. For a start they aren't even ready. So No Deal is off the table. They also know the ideal deal doesn't exist so compromise is necessary.

It won't be called BRINO of course. It, like the WA, will be lauded as Johnsons Churchill moment, sticking it to the EU bureaucrats. And the EU will happily play along, saying nothing but welcome the deal knowing that 90% of their goals were achieved.

That they did do, but now are trying to backtrack on the WA. But I don't see them going for a BRINO when they have been courting the US for a FTA at the same time as repeating the lines of sovereignty and not being subject to ECJ laws. We will have to wait and see what happens in the next couple of months.