Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

fash

serfboard wrote: »

Well, this is funny:
Remember when Leo became Taoiseach and they said how they would have gotten much better "cooperation" from Enda Kenny? And implying that Varadkar was almost a closet Sinn Feiner?

Absolutely hilarious how ignorant they are (pretending to be) if they think that Martin will make it easier for them than Varadkar.

The funniest thing for me is that express readers were forced to know who Leo was- the UK has been so reduced in the world that it is not only Macron and Merkel they need to worry about but the Irish Taoiseach.
Remember, taking back control though.

Enzokk

And I would add that we now have another SPAD doing the negotiations for the UK instead of a civil servant. Olly Robbins agreed a great deal when you looked at it for the UK. Yes, it didn't go far enough for Labour to back it but that is due to the restrictions May gave him. But he got concessions from the EU and he compromised on certain items for the UK. It was a deal that, if I remember correctly, tied the UK to a customs union with the EU if the FTA didn't sort it, but at the same time tied the EU to a customs union with the UK as well. There was some major concessions in it that made it quite a good deal for the UK.

Now we have David Frost who did work as a civil servant but left it in 2013. Since then he has been the CEO of a few associations and he was a member of the advisory council of Open Europe. Open Europe has been eurosceptic and from his appearance before the Select Committee it seemed to me that he had drunk the Kool-Aid on the importance of the UK on the world stage and also on them regaining their sovereignty and their freedoms.

So basically I think there will be a bare bones FTA if there is anything and they will go for a FTA with the US. I do hope for their sake they don't tie themselves up with the US FTA so that when the economic consequences become apparent and those charlatans are shown up for what they are and they disappear, they are tied up with the US that makes it even more difficult for the next government to reestablish a relationship with the EU.

Zubeneschamali

A FTA with the us is worth very little maybe half a percentage point GDP. The real value would be as a symbol.

WTO terms with the EU will cost them 10 times more.

Enzokk

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

A FTA with the us is worth very little maybe half a percentage point GDP. The real value would be as a symbol.

WTO terms with the EU will cost them 10 times more.

I know, you know and most people with even a basic understanding of what is happening knows. Doesn't mean it will stop this government from doing the absolute stupid thing of ditching the EU to go with a comprehensive FTA with the US that blocks a close relationship with the EU in the future. I will offer the following as evidence why it will happen,

https://twitter.com/david_conn/status/1272797640586137601?s=20

https://twitter.com/SteveReedMP/status/1272650607703310336?s=20

Two examples of money being received by the party or the politician and somehow those who paid their dues getting a favourable outcome as a result. The fact that Jenrick is still a minister, nevermind a MP is baffling.

Then again this is the same government that allows this to happen,

https://twitter.com/mojos55/status/1272299998722523138?s=20

And to add this is the same government that is fighting the good fight against racism by appointing someone who doesn't believe in institutional racism to run another review into racism. They haven't implemented any of the previous reviews findings so why not have another to whitewash them from action?

https://twitter.com/DavidLammy/status/1272633790238732289?s=20

And finally, to really make you feel sick, remember when it fell on footballers only to take a pay cut because their pay was obscene?

https://twitter.com/davidschneider/status/1272654763247702016?s=20

These politicians doesn't care for you unless you are from an established family, have money and hopefully is white as well. That is why I cannot believe Johnson being a closeted liberal out there fighting for the common man. He doesn't care about you if you aren't part of his social circle and it is becoming obvious that even his most ardent supporters will find it hard to defend him.

These politicians are in charge of the UK leaving the EU.

Zubeneschamali

I am no Johnson fan, but I find it hard to see what benefit he will see from deliberately trashing the UK economy.

He has a huge majority, he can agree a deal with the EU and declare victory. The Covid damage could then be under control by the next election.

Or he can pile deliberate no deal damage on top of Covid and face 10 years of economic misery and lose the next election.

I think Starmer blitzing the ratings as opposition leader is the kind of thing Johnson will be paying attention to, and Johnson will have his eye on limiting the damage.

Enzokk

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I am no Johnson fan, but I find it hard to see what benefit he will see from deliberately trashing the UK economy.

He has a huge majority, he can agree a deal with the EU and declare victory. The Covid damage could then be under control by the next election.

Or he can pile deliberate no deal damage on top of Covid and face 10 years of economic misery and lose the next election.

I think Starmer blitzing the ratings as opposition leader is the kind of thing Johnson will be paying attention to, and Johnson will have his eye on limiting the damage.

I don't think he sees it that way. I think he genuinely believes in the superiority of Britain and that the EU holds them back. He isn't thinking about the economy because he will not be affected by the downturn personally. I think he has delusion of grandeur for himself and the UK.

It will be up to the scheming members behind him to assess the damage and if it will be worth it. He will just be the puppet to sell it to the plebs and he cannot actually wait for all of this to end and he can be, like Cameron, ex-PM who can amuse paying companies with his stories of his experiences within No.10 Downing Street.

timetogo1

Enzokk wrote: »

I don't think he sees it that way. I think he genuinely believes in the superiority of Britain and that the EU holds them back. He isn't thinking about the economy because he will not be affected by the downturn personally. I think he has delusion of grandeur for himself and the UK.

It will be up to the scheming members behind him to assess the damage and if it will be worth it. He will just be the puppet to sell it to the plebs and he cannot actually wait for all of this to end and he can be, like Cameron, ex-PM who can amuse paying companies with his stories of his experiences within No.10 Downing Street.

But he didn't seem to think that way until after the referendum was won by Leave.
We know when he was writing for the Telegraph he just made stuff up about the EU. He couldn't really believe the stuff he was writing a lot of the time but it sold papers.
I think he's more in it for what he can get for himself and a hell of a lot of the Torys seem to be extremely well off, enough so that they can position their businesses to benefit from Brexit. If the country is screwed after Brexit it doesn't really dent their bottom lines.

Joe_ Public

Personally i think johnson is much more career opportunist than hardline brexiteer, and if doing a deal and selling out his erstwhile fellow travellers was in any way politically expedient, he'd do it in a heartbeat. But doing that and selling it as a win is an infinitely tougher proposition now than it was last autumn when he so casually dumped on his own government partners. I doubt he truly wants a no deal brexit to be part of his legacy but this is the merry go round he joined to advance his career and getting off now while it's still gathering speed remains a pretty risky proposition.

Leroy42

It's not going to be No Deal. The UK have already accepted it. Remember last month when they gave the EU 2 weeks to change their position. They were going to pull out then.

And throughout the last 4 years the UK have continually threatened to just pull out, yet never do anything.

Johnsons call for a deal in 6 weeks is yet more bluster, but this time it is aimed at looking like progress is being made. Within a few weeks Johnson is state that significant progress is being made and the deadline is being extended.

Exactly what the deal entails is still in the air, but 1st item on any meeting agenda is how the UK are going to meet the obligations of the WA. So Johnson is going to have to come up with a solution to that.

serfboard

Leroy42 wrote: »

1st item on any meeting agenda is how the UK are going to meet the obligations of the WA.

Is that the agreement signed by Boris Johnson which Boris Johnson now says is "unfair"?

Leroy42

serfboard wrote: »

Is that the agreement signed by Boris Johnson which Boris Johnson now says is "unfair"?

Exactly. Why Johnson thinks he can force through an agreement by the end of July when he has gone around telling everyone that he has no intention of sticking to the previous agreement that he only signed last year and which is currently enacted as law in the UK is the question.

54and56

serfboard wrote: »

Well, this is funny:
Remember when Leo became Taoiseach and they said how they would have gotten much better "cooperation" from Enda Kenny? And implying that Varadkar was almost a closet Sinn Feiner?

Absolutely hilarious how ignorant they are (pretending to be) if they think that Martin will make it easier for them than Varadkar.

Indeed, it's not as if he's the leader of a party whose tagline is literally "The Republican Party"!!

Professor Moriarty

Headline for an op-ed in The Telegraph today. Written by Asa Bennett so no surprise there.

"Boris Johnson is freeing the British Lion from its cage so the world can see it roar."

The content is as nauseating as the headline.

ancapailldorcha

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Headline for an op-ed in The Telegraph today. Written by Asa Bennett so no surprise there.

"Boris Johnson is freeing the British Lion from its cage so the world can see it roar."

The content is as nauseating as the headline.

Sounds like you've read it. Is it the same sort of stuff they were coming out with before the referendum?

Professor Moriarty

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Sounds like you've read it. Is it the same sort of stuff they were coming out with before the referendum?

Essentially: Johnson is an energetic leader who will put manners on the EU which has kept the British lion caged and he will lead an unfettered UK into a glorious economic future with deals and influence across the globe.

farmchoice

the same man who put his name to an article with this headline
Firmly and calmly, the UK is leading Europe in the fight against the coronavirus.

Asa Bennett

murphaph

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Essentially: Johnson is an energetic leader who will put manners on the EU which has kept the British lion caged and he will lead an unfettered UK into a glorious economic future with deals and influence across the globe.

<puke/>

The sad thing is that so many Brits believe this tripe. They will only learn the hard way. That's if they don't blame it on some EU Dolchstoß.

Professor Moriarty

murphaph wrote: »

<puke/>

The sad thing is that so many Brits believe this tripe. They will only learn the hard way. That's if they don't blame it on some EU Dolchstoß.

Well, if The Telegraph, Sun, Mail and Express are to be believed, Johnson and the Tories are perfect and everyone else is selfish and stupid and are trying to bring the UK down. So there'll be plenty of people to point the finger at when their economy and society tank next year.

serfboard

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Headline for an op-ed in The Telegraph today. Written by Asa Bennett so no surprise there.

"Boris Johnson is freeing the British Lion from its cage so the world can see it roar."

The content is as nauseating as the headline.

That headline isn't nauesating, it's hilarious.

And as for the publication, it has become a comic now, to be read by the dim, and owned by a couple of billionaire tax exiles who live in a castle on their own private island, but who want everyone else to cram onto crowded public transport risking their health, in order to generate even more money for them.

Professor Moriarty

serfboard wrote: »

That headline isn't nauesating, it's hilarious.

And as for the publication, it has become a comic now, to be read by the dim, and owned by a couple of billionaire tax exiles who live in a castle on their own private island, but who want everyone else to cram onto crowded public transport risking their health, in order to generate even more money for them.

But it plays to the older Tory middle class voters who hark back to an England long since dead. Churchillian leader, class structures, 'common sense' and English exceptionalism. Most of them will be insulated from the crap that's coming Britain's way so they're comfy in their slippers reading Tory drivel that paints an unrealistic alternate universe where everyone knows their place, including Johnny Foreigner.

Capt'n Midnight

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

A FTA with the us is worth very little maybe half a percentage point GDP. The real value would be as a symbol.

WTO terms with the EU will cost them 10 times more.

Not having an FTA with the EU would cost the UK between 4.9% and 6.7% of GDP growth after 15 years.

Best outcome for a UK-US trade deal is 0.16% growth over 15 years. About half that if they try to keep UK standards instead of adopting US ones or the US goes cherry-picking like the UK planned to do with Brexit.

Also a US deal is not likely to improve UK's trading relationship with China. And visa versa.

Capt'n Midnight

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Headline for an op-ed in The Telegraph today. Written by Asa Bennett so no surprise there.

"Boris Johnson is freeing the British Lion from its cage so the world can see it roar."

Jurassic World was on the telly recently, maybe that's where they got the idea ?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQ0xLCg030E

Hubris vs pride. Solitary lion vs a pride. It's all too depressing , a never ending car crash.

johnnyskeleton

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Not having an FTA with the EU would cost the UK between 4.9% and 6.7% of GDP growth after 15 years.

I wonder are these calculations a fudge? They estimate it based on all other things being equal and look at the loss of trade in goods.

A no deal brexit also means an end to financial passporting and the de facto* freedom of establishment and services. This could be like a hammer blow to the city of London, which is a significant part of the UK economy.

*Brexiteers, at least the more articulate ones, claim that one of the concessions Cameron wanted was complete free access to services. It can be said that free movement of services is a complex and evolving one, but if the UK thinks it was deprived of that freedom in the EU, it will be interesting to see how it goes when they leave

54and56

A refreshingly cogent article in the Telegraph - https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/06/16/appetite-thin-eu-trade-deal-grows-city-has-lose/

Leroy42

54and56 wrote: »

A refreshingly cogent article in the Telegraph - https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/06/16/appetite-thin-eu-trade-deal-grows-city-has-lose/

My thinking on this is that the UK are aiming to become a major competitor to the EU. Drop prices, regulations etc and try to not only maintain the business they have in CoL but increase it by taking business from Frankfurt etc.

They are already a major international hub, but this would make them on par with SG and NY. Basically EU companies will have no choice but to deal with London.

Peregrinus

Leroy42 wrote: »

My thinking on this is that the UK are aiming to become a major competitor to the EU. Drop prices, regulations etc and try to not only maintain the business they have in CoL but increase it by taking business from Frankfurt etc.

They are already a major international hub, but this would make them on par with SG and NY. Basically EU companies will have no choice but to deal with London.

Being on a par with New York would be a step up for London, but being on a par with Singapore would be a step down; London is already a much more signficant centre than Singapore.

And, whatever about dropping prices, I don't think any city becomes a top ten global financial services centre by dropping regulations. Investors want regulated markets.

The City is adaptable, and is confident that it can survive Brexit. But there is basically no version of Brexit that is good for the City, and no advocate of Brexit aims to benefit the City, or supports Brexit because he thinks it will benefit the City. It definitely will not.

listermint

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I am no Johnson fan, but I find it hard to see what benefit he will see from deliberately trashing the UK economy.

He has a huge majority, he can agree a deal with the EU and declare victory. The Covid damage could then be under control by the next election.

Or he can pile deliberate no deal damage on top of Covid and face 10 years of economic misery and lose the next election.

I think Starmer blitzing the ratings as opposition leader is the kind of thing Johnson will be paying attention to, and Johnson will have his eye on limiting the damage.

If you think Johnson and his father don't have major gains to make from a depressed Britain then you haven't been following the two for a long time.

Monaco money no doubt.

listermint

Leroy42 wrote: »

My thinking on this is that the UK are aiming to become a major competitor to the EU. Drop prices, regulations etc and try to not only maintain the business they have in CoL but increase it by taking business from Frankfurt etc.

They are already a major international hub, but this would make them on par with SG and NY. Basically EU companies will have no choice but to deal with London.

Definitely the EU will allow that to happen.

Definitely...

Leroy42

listermint wrote: »

If you think Johnson and his father don't have major gains to make from a depressed Britain then you haven't been following the two for a long time.

Monaco money no doubt.

I think many or of the view that there is plenty of money to be made and that, in the end, the overall effect will be only a few % GDP after a few years so, to them, a price worth paying.

I have to believe that at this stage they really do believe that Brexit will have little lasting negative effects. That Global Britain will end up pretty much were it is.

But they got power, and money, out of it in the meantime

fash

Leroy42 wrote: »

I think many or of the view that there is plenty of money to be made and that, in the end, the overall effect will be only a few % GDP after a few years so, to them, a price worth paying.

I have to believe that at this stage they really do believe that Brexit will have little lasting negative effects. That Global Britain will end up pretty much were it is.

But they got power, and money, out of it in the meantime

Frankly do you expect them to care? Better up be in power over an 80% UK economy than not in power over a 100% economy. That way you can funnel money to friends and set yourself up for life afterwards.
The only reason to care about the economic impact is if it affects your chances of remaining in power. If you can make other issues seem more important (culture wars etc.)- then why bother about the UK economy at all?