Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

Professor Moriarty

Leroy42 wrote: »

I think many or of the view that there is plenty of money to be made and that, in the end, the overall effect will be only a few % GDP after a few years so, to them, a price worth paying.

I have to believe that at this stage they really do believe that Brexit will have little lasting negative effects. That Global Britain will end up pretty much were it is.

But they got power, and money, out of it in the meantime

They don't. They're not stupid and they are advised by the civil service. They are placing nationalism before the economy. It's a deliberate choice.

Professor Moriarty

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Speaking of economic impacts https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/politics/brexit-set-to-cost-the-uk-more-than-200-billion-by-the-end-of-the-year/16/06/



Thats on top of 20+% GDP drop due to covid, a billion here, a billion there and before you know it your country is a shell of what it was

That's jaw-dropping. Where's that NHS bus?

Interestingly, these people believe the UK is now more competitive than a year ago.
https://www.imd.org/wcc/world-competitiveness-center-rankings/world-competitiveness-ranking-2020/

UK has moved up from 23rd up to 19 ( Ireland has dropped from 7 to 12)

The UK climbed from 23rd to 19th, whilst neighbour France (32nd) slightly lost its 2019 foothold on 31st. One interpretation is that Brexit may have created the sentiment of a business-friendly environment in the making. The UK ranked 20th on the business efficiency measure, compared to 31st least year.

https://www.imd.org/globalassets/wcc/docs/2020/wcc-site/one-year-change-vertical.pdf

Professor Moriarty

Deleted User wrote: »

Interestingly, these people believe the UK is now more competitive than a year ago.
https://www.imd.org/wcc/world-competitiveness-center-rankings/world-competitiveness-ranking-2020/

UK has moved up from 23rd up to 19 ( Ireland has dropped from 7 to 12)



https://www.imd.org/globalassets/wcc/docs/2020/wcc-site/one-year-change-vertical.pdf

Presumably they see regulations, workers' rights and wages being slashed once Britain shakes off the EU shackles.

Sam Russell

54and56 wrote: »

A refreshingly cogent article in the Telegraph - https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/06/16/appetite-thin-eu-trade-deal-grows-city-has-lose/

That article is more 'They need us more than we need them' and 'of course we can have our cake and eat it!' that the Bexiteers have been pushing for a decade.

Unfortunately, BMWs and Mercedes will still sell in the UK with a 10% tariff while UK Nissans will not sell in Europe against Japanese built ones.

More pie in the sky. Covid has changed the world forever. Global will become local, as the risk of global loses its advantage of minor lower costs.

54and56

Sam Russell wrote: »

That article is more 'They need us more than we need them' and 'of course we can have our cake and eat it!' that the Bexiteers have been pushing for a decade.

Unfortunately, BMWs and Mercedes will still sell in the UK with a 10% tariff while UK Nissans will not sell in Europe against Japanese built ones.

More pie in the sky. Covid has changed the world forever. Global will become local, as the risk of global loses its advantage of minor lower costs.

For a Telegraph article it really isn't and it needs to be viewed in that context. It clearly states that

"The City has arguably gained more from unfettered access to Europe’s single market than any other sector, so potentially also has the most to lose from a poorly executed trade deal that fails adequately to take its interests into account.

There is a distinction to be made here between “the City” as a national asset, and the mainly foreign owned players that make it up. Most of these participants are individually agnostic on what happens. They would obviously prefer the status quo, but have already restructured in preparation for less benign outcomes. It would not be helpful to them if the City splintered, but it would be manageable. The big loser would be the UK economy, and, by extension, the Exchequer, not them."

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

Interestingly, these people believe the UK is now more competitive than a year ago.
https://www.imd.org/wcc/world-competitiveness-center-rankings/world-competitiveness-ranking-2020/

UK has moved up from 23rd up to 19 ( Ireland has dropped from 7 to 12)



https://www.imd.org/globalassets/wcc/docs/2020/wcc-site/one-year-change-vertical.pdf

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Wait wait wait

Are you really comparing facts (of 200 billion+ pound brexit cost ontop of a 20% GDP drop)

to a survey of opinions ?

Really is this all brexiteers have this day in way of arguments?

Read my post again!
Comment on the opinion piece not me!

ambro25

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

That's jaw-dropping. Where's that NHS bus?

Looks like the triple lock on UK pensions is coming soon, to help get it back on t'road.

Delighted for Brexit-voting OAPs to be given the opportunity of demonstrating the full extent of their belief.

ancapailldorcha

ambro25 wrote: »

Looks like the triple lock on UK pensions is coming soon, to help get it back on t'road.

Delighted for Brexit-voting OAPs to be given the opportunity of demonstrating the full extent of their belief.

This has been due for some time. Theresa May tried to replace it with a double lock but her disastrous handling of her proposed reforms to funding social care put paid to that.

Brexit-voting OAP's expect the next generation to maintain the lifestyle to which they have become accustomed while hurling abuse at them. Voting for an artificial recession that's going to devastate the funding base for their lavish privileges is going to have fascinating results. If there's any justice left in this country, they'll finally be made to live with the choice they made in 2016.

While I don't actually support such an authoritarian idea, I find the idea of compulsory national service in the fruit fields for Brexit voters quite attractive.

Professor Moriarty

ambro25 wrote: »

Looks like the triple lock on UK pensions is coming soon, to help get it back on t'road.

Delighted for Brexit-voting OAPs to be given the opportunity of demonstrating the full extent of their belief.

Not a good move for future Tory votes.

Enzokk

Leroy42 wrote: »

My thinking on this is that the UK are aiming to become a major competitor to the EU. Drop prices, regulations etc and try to not only maintain the business they have in CoL but increase it by taking business from Frankfurt etc.

They are already a major international hub, but this would make them on par with SG and NY. Basically EU companies will have no choice but to deal with London.

But didn't you say 2 days ago you were more of the opinion that the UK was pivoting to a BRINO deal? They will not be able to have their cake and eat it. Germany for one will not allow it to happen.

As for PMQ's today, Johnson again all over the place and being shown up by Starmer, but I think Johnson will think he did well as he was full of bounce and vigour and energy. There was a few comments to him that he was looking fit by Tory MP's which seemed weird.

The interesting thing, not really Brexit related but just something I noticed, usually the PM gets with the last answer from the opposition leader time to boast about his government without fear of a follow up question. It usually means the PM ends with some momentum as he gets the final word. But this time Starmer followed up with a question on the NHS fee for critical workers and how it has not been implemented yet. Johnson couldn't pivot to a attack slogan because he had to answer a serious question which for me seemed to mean he ended on a whimper instead of a shout they usually do.

ancapailldorcha

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Not a good move for future Tory votes.

They're being forced by necessity. The population of this country is ageing. You can offset that in the short term with immigration but the British have had enough of that apparently.

That leaves an ever increasing population of people who are a fiscal burden and a shrinking support base of younger taxpayers to support them. Importing more younger, healthier Europeans is politically unfeasible and so is actually providing affordable housing so the support base which might otherwise be able to bear the fiscal burden.

Some form of change is inevitable and if Brexit forces the government to actually confront their most cherished demographic with these uncomfortable facts then some good will have come of it. It won't help with a weakened pound, higher cost of living, mass unemployment, exodus of skilled mobile people or food shortages but it needs to happen nevertheless.

Leroy42

Enzokk wrote: »

But didn't you say 2 days ago you were more of the opinion that the UK was pivoting to a BRINO deal? They will not be able to have their cake and eat it. Germany for one will not allow it to happen.

As for PMQ's today, Johnson again all over the place and being shown up by Starmer, but I think Johnson will think he did well as he was full of bounce and vigour and energy. There was a few comments to him that he was looking fit by Tory MP's which seemed weird.

The interesting thing, not really Brexit related but just something I noticed, usually the PM gets with the last answer from the opposition leader time to boast about his government without fear of a follow up question. It usually means the PM ends with some momentum as he gets the final word. But this time Starmer followed up with a question on the NHS fee for critical workers and how it has not been implemented yet. Johnson couldn't pivot to a attack slogan because he had to answer a serious question which for me seemed to mean he ended on a whimper instead of a shout they usually do.

I did, but services are not part of the deal so don't see the contradiciton.

ancapailldorcha

Mod: One-liner posts and twitter pastes deleted. Please bear the charter in mind when posting.

Enzokk

Leroy42 wrote: »

I did, but services are not part of the deal so don't see the contradiciton.

How do you see the UK lowering all those things you said while still signing up to a BRINO deal? That is a contradiction. If they are going for a BRINO they will not be able lower standards and labour regulations that would allow them to undercut the EU as you mention. Unless I am misunderstanding what you are saying.


As for the new announcement the UK is looking for a FTA with Australia and New Zealand, remember how they couldn't possible sign up for LPF with the EU?

https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1273239081305042944?s=20

Leroy42

Enzokk wrote: »

How do you see the UK lowering all those things you said while still signing up to a BRINO deal? That is a contradiction. If they are going for a BRINO they will not be able lower standards and labour regulations that would allow them to undercut the EU as you mention. Unless I am misunderstanding what you are saying.


As for the new announcement the UK is looking for a FTA with Australia and New Zealand, remember how they couldn't possible sign up for LPF with the EU?

https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1273239081305042944?s=20

I'll be the first to admit that I am far from solid ground on any of this. In terms of regulations I was more talking about the Financial Services sector, but clearly the UK are going to lower workers rights, holidays etc. IMO, anyone who thinks otherwise has simply not been paying attention to them the last few years.

ambro25

Leroy42 wrote: »

I'll be the first to admit that I am far from solid ground on any of this. In terms of regulations I was more talking about the Financial Services sector, but clearly the UK are going to lower workers rights, holidays etc.IMO, anyone who thinks otherwise has simply not been paying attention to them the last few years.

[oversimplification warning, for expediency]

In the context at hand, one is not dissociable from the other. No more for FinServ, than for any other services or manufacturing. Because that is how the EU27 ensures that the UK cannot go Singapore-on-Thames on them.

Which is what the EU27's LPF requirement is all about: it's an all-or-nothing* situation.

* 'nothing' here, means whatever few crumbs of UK service exports to the EU27 which the EU27 would permit, for however long and at their sufferance, because it is advantageous to them, not to the UK. Exactly as on the previous run-ups to 'no deal'.

Nody

An official strategic outline of the government's plans for the deal unveiled on Wednesday says the effect on GDP (gross domestic product) from the deal will be "close to zero" according to government modelling.

But under one modelled scenario of a more ambitious trade deal, government statisticians think it is possible the UK economy could contract by -0.01 per cent. They also expect the overall welfare of the UK of the population to be slightly lower as a result of the deal.

"A trade agreement with New Zealand could have limited effects on UK GDP in the long run, with the estimated impact on GDP being close to zero under both scenarios compared to the UK not having a trade deal with New Zealand (between 0.00 per cent and 0.01 per cent in scenario 1 and -0.01 per cent and 0.00 per cent in scenario 2)," the document says.

A similar analysis published by the government today expects a trade agreement with Australia to "increase UK GDP in the long run by around 0.01 per cent or 0.02 per cent", ", also a negligible amount, particularly over the 15 year long-run period.

However, the government is keen to sign trade deals with other countries to illustrate the benefits of leaving the European Union's customs union, in which Britain could not sign its own agreements but benefits from collective deals negotiated by the EU.

Best trade deal negotiators ever! I wonder if other countries will in the future simply sit back and see how badly UK will fall over without doing anything.

Tell me how

Nody wrote: »

Best trade deal negotiators ever! I wonder if other countries will in the future simply sit back and see how badly UK will fall over without doing anything.

I think it is still the case that the UK leaving and remaining outside the EU will weaken the EU project.

Irrespective to how they are doing, of course, they are expected to survive as an economy and if there is any room to paint a rosier picture than what the reality is, they will take it.

When Portugal, France, or whoever gets antsy about the EU deals or situation in future, I expect both them, and the UK will talk up the potential for a bilateral agreement should this party also leave the EU and the UK will be a strong agent provocateur on the sidelines making all sorts of promises.

To this point, the rhetoric of the Brexiteers has won the day with the general populace having shown themselves to be willing to ignore the fact that lies were told to have faith that everything will be alright.

A bizarre situation to be observing as it happens right in front of our eyes.

Sam Russell

Tell me how wrote: »

I think it is still the case that the UK leaving and remaining outside the EU will weaken the EU project.

Irrespective to how they are doing, of course, they are expected to survive as an economy and if there is any room to paint a rosier picture than what the reality is, they will take it.

When Portugal, France, or whoever gets antsy about the EU deals or situation in future, I expect both them, and the UK will talk up the potential for a bilateral agreement should this party also leave the EU and the UK will be a strong agent provocateur on the sidelines making all sorts of promises.

To this point, the rhetoric of the Brexiteers has won the day with the general populace having shown themselves to be willing to ignore the fact that lies were told to have faith that everything will be alright.

A bizarre situation to be observing as it happens right in front of our eyes.

Sounds like you think the UK will pursue the Putin approach or the North Korea one. Splendid isolation was the British Empire policy of the 1900s.

Either way, they will be outside trying to piss in, rather than be inside ordering the EU project to their benefit. I doubt that any other EU member would even contemplate following their overwhelming success in leaving the EU project, but time will tell.

In the meantime they have an economy to protect, not to mention a Union of their own.

fash

Tell me how wrote: »

I think it is still the case that the UK leaving and remaining outside the EU will weaken the EU project.

Irrespective to how they are doing, of course, they are expected to survive as an economy and if there is any room to paint a rosier picture than what the reality is, they will take it.

When Portugal, France, or whoever gets antsy about the EU deals or situation in future, I expect both them, and the UK will talk up the potential for a bilateral agreement should this party also leave the EU and the UK will be a strong agent provocateur on the sidelines making all sorts of promises.

To this point, the rhetoric of the Brexiteers has won the day with the general populace having shown themselves to be willing to ignore the fact that lies were told to have faith that everything will be alright.

A bizarre situation to be observing as it happens right in front of our eyes.

Economically it diminishes the EU however politically it is quite likely to strengthen the EU. Firstly it shows up the folly of leaving the EU: there are no sunny uplands and no free lunches. The Covid fund would likely not have been possible had the UK remained in the EU and other countries should be more conscious of the (now diminished but yet now foreseeable) possibility that a country will leave. Furthermore the fact that the UK was always a political outlier will in some but not all respects result in the EU consisting of more politically aligned member states.
Furthermore there is a good chance that the UK will break up (hardly a good example for a country choosing to leave) and at the end of the day the UK will likely end up in some form of BRINO - even if that takes 20-30 years.

listermint

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Read my post again!
Comment on the opinion piece not me!

What is interesting about it though?

You posted an article but brought no opinion of your own to the post.


But as usual promoting a post which suits a view of Ireland or conversely EU doing badly over the UK.

Why , I still don't get it....

J Mysterio

Interesting tweet here from Faisal Islam on US perspective on US-UK trade.

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1273351805121036288?s=20

"Their (UKs) negotiations with the EU will be crucial to us... their view is that they can deal with each of us separately... It’s difficult to do these two negotiations at the same time”.

Pretty much the Australian view I attempted to post about earlier. Boris is throwing around packs of Tim-Tams (not very good) and talking about boomerangs and vegimite.

https://twitter.com/anthpcox/status/1273201200918380554?s=20

UK government approach appears to be 'be optimistic' (while ignoring the writing on the wall).

eire4

Tell me how wrote: »

I think it is still the case that the UK leaving and remaining outside the EU will weaken the EU project.

Irrespective to how they are doing, of course, they are expected to survive as an economy and if there is any room to paint a rosier picture than what the reality is, they will take it.

When Portugal, France, or whoever gets antsy about the EU deals or situation in future, I expect both them, and the UK will talk up the potential for a bilateral agreement should this party also leave the EU and the UK will be a strong agent provocateur on the sidelines making all sorts of promises.

To this point, the rhetoric of the Brexiteers has won the day with the general populace having shown themselves to be willing to ignore the fact that lies were told to have faith that everything will be alright.

A bizarre situation to be observing as it happens right in front of our eyes.

IMHO after watching the absolute fiasco that was Brexit and now continues in these trade negotiations so far I really do not see any of the EU 27 wanting to follow that path never mind the fact that the EU has other countries current not members wanting to join. Reality is IMHO that it is the UK's union which is actually in threat of falling apart with Scotland moving towards pushing for a new independence referendum as well as the situation with regards to Irish reunification.

declanflynn

J Mysterio wrote: »

Interesting tweet here from Faisal Islam on US perspective on US-UK trade.

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1273351805121036288?s=20

"Their (UKs) negotiations with the EU will be crucial to us... their view is that they can deal with each of us separately... It’s difficult to do these two negotiations at the same time”.

Pretty much the Australian view I attempted to post about earlier. Boris is throwing around packs of Tim-Tams (not very good) and talking about boomerangs and vegimite.

https://twitter.com/anthpcox/status/1273201200918380554?s=20

UK government approach appears to be 'be optimistic' (while ignoring the writing on the wall).

This is the most entertaining post iv seen on this thread, even boris by his tone knows a FTA with Australia is a joke Tim tams and boomerangs ffs, its going to be a great laugh seeing all the hype about trade talks with countries that will importing Jack **** from the uk

dogbert27

eire4 wrote: »

IMHO after watching the absolute fiasco that was Brexit and now continues in these trade negotiations so far I really do not see any of the EU 27 wanting to follow that path never mind the fact that the EU has other countries current not members wanting to join. Reality is IMHO that it is the UK's union which is actually in threat of falling apart with Scotland moving towards pushing for a new independence referendum as well as the situation with regards to Irish reunification.

At the time of the first referendum the UK / English government were happy to have the EU back them against Scotland, telling Scotland if they gained independence they would be outside the EU and would have to apply again and would not have the same benefits they currently had as part of the UK government.

I'm sure now the EU would be happy to back Scotland's independence bid and offer their support to joining the EU as an independent country.

McGiver

Professor Moriarty wrote:

Presumably they see regulations, workers' rights and wages being slashed once Britain shakes off the EU shackles.

I've checked the report - they use four criteria - Economic Performance, Business Efficiency, Government Efficiency and Infrastructure.

Allegedly the UK has improved in Business Efficiency (whatever that is) and Infrastructure criteria. It's unlikely it has anything to do with what will happen with regulations but rather what has happened with the regulations.

eire4

dogbert27 wrote: »

At the time of the first referendum the UK / English government were happy to have the EU back them against Scotland, telling Scotland if they gained independence they would be outside the EU and would have to apply again and would not have the same benefits they currently had as part of the UK government.

I'm sure now the EU would be happy to back Scotland's independence bid and offer their support to joining the EU as an independent country.

I tend to think your right about any future attitude toward Scottish independence from the EU. Scottish leader Nicola Sturgeon has had a number of meetings with EU officials so clearly that ground has been broken already so to speak.

fash

eire4 wrote: »

I tend to think your right about any future attitude toward Scottish independence from the EU. Scottish leader Nicola Sturgeon has had a number of meetings with EU officials so clearly that ground has been broken already so to speak.

The EU is officially unlikely to say anything encouraging- it's not diplomatic to encourage the breakup of another country (leave that to the Brexiters)- and also the EU needs to be conscious of the concerns of e.g. Spain ( Catalonia) in developing its approach.

dogbert27

fash wrote: »

The EU is officially unlikely to say anything encouraging- it's not diplomatic to encourage the breakup of another country (leave that to the Brexiters)- and also the EU needs to be conscious of the concerns of e.g. Spain ( Catalonia) in developing its approach.

The United Kingdom is not a country so it is completely different to Spain/Catalonia.

Scotland is already recognized internationally as a country.