Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

fash

Leroy42 wrote: »

While I agree on the priorities, I read her statement slightly differently. She states “That is for Britain to define – and we, the EU27, will respond appropriately.” Which to me implies that up until now the EU have been trying to make the UK make a certain choice, or even not really a choice but the only option.

So are the EU finally signalling that they ow accept the UK has left, accept that the UK won't give fishing right, LPF etc and need to make the best of a bad lot? David Frost has been pushing that line since Johnson took over, that the UK will not compromise and the EU need to wake up to that fact.

The question then becomes what the consequences of that stance turn out to be. If recovering from Covid economically is a high priority is cutting off significant trade with the UK really the right choice?

I read it to mean: "we've repeatedly tried to come up with solutions to minimize the impact and consequences of Brexit - however since the UK rejects everything and is unable to come up with a solution, we now give up: the UK needs to tell us what price it's willing to pay and and we'll tell them what they'll get for that price. Furthermore based on the rejections to-date, they are unlikely to get much."

Igotadose

Deleted User wrote: »

That satellite thing is completely and utterly absurd. Surely some of these decision makers have a child who has a passing interest in this stuff or reads some Ars Technica.. How can these decisions come about with so many people involved?

Follow the money. Just stay tuned I think we'll learn who owns what shares of that failing satellite company.

Zubeneschamali

fash wrote: »

the UK needs to tell us what price it's willing to pay and and we'll tell them what they'll get for that

I think she is putting it as the UK needs to define the relationship they want, and then deal with the consequences. She is saying it is now entirely the UK's problem.

pixelburp

Igotadose wrote: »

Follow the money. Just stay tuned I think we'll learn who owns what shares of that failing satellite company.

It has to be, otherwise the level of incompetence on display is staggering. Comparisons with The Thick of It feel stale, trite at this stage. Mind you, this snuck out during BLM protests and CoVid insanity on English beaches so maybe it's a legitimate cock up and the government are trying to bury the news underneath larger current affairs issues.

Igotadose

pixelburp wrote: »

It has to be, otherwise the level of incompetence on display is staggering. Comparisons with The Thick of It feel stale, trite at this stage. Mind you, this snuck out during BLM protests and CoVid insanity on English beaches so maybe it's a legitimate cock up and the government are trying to bury the news underneath larger current affairs issues.

Seems to me that probability dictates that not 100% of HMG are complete inbred nutter incompetents despite their repeated showings. Some small percentage (Cummings maybe? Raab possibly?) are expert grifters and know just what levers to pull to maximize their own wealth via government manipulation. Remember the multiple attempts and hundreds of millions spent on the track-and-trace app, partially run by Lady Dido? That actually never did anything other than track a few people on the Isle of Man? Again, moving taxpayer monies into Tory grandee pockets.

Basically, never attribute to incompetence what's due to malice. Michelle Obama did say in an interview that, having been on a number of high-level corporate boards, there are a lot of not very bright people running things. Not all of them are dummies, however.

salonfire

Quick question, does anyone know of any (serious if possible) pro-Brexit forums that I could take a look at?

It would be interesting to see their responses as the plot thickens.

The one or two posters who were here slid away into obscurity, unable to match the scrutiny I suppose.

Here, Reddit, any of the Twitter links posted here, there are very, very few robust pro Brexit views.

J Mysterio

Just read the daily mail comments or go on Twitter.

Sam Russell

Igotadose wrote: »

Seems to me that probability dictates that not 100% of HMG are complete inbred nutter incompetents despite their repeated showings. Some small percentage (Cummings maybe? Raab possibly?) are expert grifters and know just what levers to pull to maximize their own wealth via government manipulation. Remember the multiple attempts and hundreds of millions spent on the track-and-trace app, partially run by Lady Dido? That actually never did anything other than track a few people on the Isle of Man? Again, moving taxpayer monies into Tory grandee pockets.

Basically, never attribute to incompetence what's due to malice. Michelle Obama did say in an interview that, having been on a number of high-level corporate boards, there are a lot of not very bright people running things. Not all of them are dummies, however.

I cannot see Raab as anything but a low level idiot who bubbles along trying to be something he is clearly not - a tiny bit clever.

He admitted he did not realise the importance of Dover in UK logistics. It through Dover that most of UK imports from the EU come.

He admitted as Brexit Secretary that he had not read the Good Friday Agreement (known in UK Gov circles as the Belfast Agreement) because it was not bedtime reading. It was the biggest stumbling block to any form of WA with the EU, yet he never read it. It was published as a brief 38 page booklet here, so hardly a gripping read at sleeps time.

How he can hold down a job in any capacity I cannot see.

At this time, the Tories have purged over 50% of their experienced and able politicians and promoted the most unsuitable to high office, like Raab, Truss, and Priri Patel. Grayling is still in there despite having failed at every job they have given him.

Of course, the most unsuitable of all is now Prime Minister.

The future must be bleak indeed for all those who live there.

PopePalpatine

J Mysterio wrote: »

Just read the daily mail comments or go on Twitter.

You forgot Facebook and the Express.

Tell me how

salonfire wrote: »

Quick question, does anyone know of any (serious if possible) pro-Brexit forums that I could take a look at?

It would be interesting to see their responses as the plot thickens.

The one or two posters who were here slid away into obscurity, unable to match the scrutiny I suppose.

Here, Reddit, any of the Twitter links posted here, there are very, very few robust pro Brexit views.

Twitter will tell you that any Brexiteer is even more staunchly saying that the EU are playing games, not respecting the UK and they should just given them the two fingers and leave.

salonfire

salonfire wrote: »

Quick question, does anyone know of any (serious if possible) pro-Brexit forums that I could take a look at?

It would be interesting to see their responses as the plot thickens.

The one or two posters who were here slid away into obscurity, unable to match the scrutiny I suppose.

Here, Reddit, any of the Twitter links posted here, there are very, very few robust pro Brexit views.

I don't know of any pro-Brexit sites to be honest, but I occasionally throw some bones in here for the Anti-Brerexiteers to chew over!

ancapailldorcha

Mod: One-liners deleted.

listermint

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I don't know of any pro-Brexit sites to be honest, but I occasionally throw some bones in here for the Anti-Brerexiteers to chew over!

In fairness they're mainly anti EU and anti Ireland bones.Not entirely pro brexit .

Peregrinus

salonfire wrote: »

Quick question, does anyone know of any (serious if possible) pro-Brexit forums that I could take a look at?

It would be interesting to see their responses as the plot thickens.

The one or two posters who were here slid away into obscurity, unable to match the scrutiny I suppose.

Here, Reddit, any of the Twitter links posted here, there are very, very few robust pro Brexit views.

You could try conservativehome.com.

A blog rather than a forum, and not exclusively focussed on Brexit. But it does publish a lot of articles dealing with Brexit. And because it's basically a place for people who either actively support Brexit or at least accept it, and who all want it to go as well as possible and to play out advantageously for the Tories, it's neither as rabble-rousing nor as insecurely defensive as some of the more, um, confrontational forums.

Enzokk

So Michael Gove has been using a speech to lay out the future direction of the Civil Service and that there needs to be a change in the way people are hired and it has become, effectively, a echo chamber for the London elite and they need to look outside of the capital for talent.

Civil service: Michael Gove says 'group think' must be challenged

Major changes to the civil service are needed to tackle "group think" in government, Michael Gove has said.

The Cabinet Office minister said the "metropolitan" outlook of decision-makers had contributed to government becoming "estranged" from the people.

More diversity in recruitment and emphasis on mathematical and scientific skills was key to making officials more responsive to the public's needs.

Boris Johnson's advisers are reportedly planning a major Whitehall shake-up.

In recent days there has been speculation about the future of the UK's top civil servant, Sir Mark Sedwill, who serves as cabinet secretary in No 10 and the PM's national security adviser.

There have been reports of tensions between Sir Mark and some of the PM's political advisers over the government's handling of the coronavirus pandemic.

Basically, the Brexit vote showed those in London is out of touch and we need more people from the country in positions that is now taken up by the metropolitan elite.

Then we have this,

Britain's chief Brexit negotiator David Frost taking over as National Security Adviser from Sir Mark Sedwill 'sets a hard deadline on trade talks', No 10 says

Replacing Sir Mark Sedwill as national security adviser with Boris Johnson's chief negotiator in Europe effectively sets a hard deadline on Brexit trade talks, Downing Street said last night.

David Frost, a career diplomat, will move to his new role by the beginning of September. This means that talks with Brussels over a free trade deal will have to be completed by the end of August at the latest.

If no agreement is reached by then, the UK will leave without a deal when the transition period ends on December 31. The Government hopes the deadline will increase pressure on EU leaders to make concessions which would make it easier to seal a free trade deal.

The new deadline is interesting, although I doubt it will increase the pressure on the EU. I am more interested that Johnson seems to think that by hiring someone from Oxford who is a career diplomat and has no national security experience as National Security Advisor is in the same government as Gove who wants to return the country to the people and look for more people with experience instead of those that fit who they think it suited to the role.

I mean this screams out what Gove rails against,

In another break from tradition, Mr Frost's is a political appointment rather than a civil service one – meaning he is more akin to a special adviser.

Regarded as a close associate of Dominic Cummings, the 55-year-old has no previous national security experience. However, he will now be the principal adviser to the Prime Minister and Cabinet on national security strategy, policy and planning for emergencies.

...

Born in Derby, Mr Frost won a scholarship to Nottingham High School before going on to study French and history at St John's College, Oxford. He joined the Foreign Office in 1987, with his first posting taking him to the British High Commission in Cyprus.

In 1993 he experienced his first taste of working with the EU when he was posted to Brussels as first secretary for economic and financial affairs. He was then sent to the United Nations.

Between 2006 and 2008 he was Britain's ambassador to Denmark before becoming the UK's most senior trade policy official in the business department. He left the diplomatic service in 2013 to head the Scotch Whisky Association – but when Mr Johnson became foreign secretary he returned to government as his special adviser.

He also served as a member of the advisory council of Open Europe, a Eurosceptic think-tank.

Much like with Trump in charge of the pandemic and the results we are seeing, this government is nothing new or will not affect change other than to get their friends in jobs. I think that this government and their image of being a fighter for the common man was blown up by Cummings going to his parents farm and staying in a third house on the property.

murphaph

I don't know. Many British people seem to be only too happy to doff their caps to their "betters". Strange society in many ways.

murphaph

murphaph wrote: »

I don't know. Many British people seem to be only too happy to doff their caps to their "betters". Strange society in many ways.

I think you'll find that is a global phenomenon, everywhere the majority of people will simply put their trust in the people they believe are their betters, be that the Parish Priest, local politician or whatever.
People of the UK are no different in this respect.

First Up

Deleted User wrote:

I think you'll find that is a global phenomenon, everywhere the majority of people will simply put their trust in the people they believe are their betters, be that the Parish Priest, local politician or whatever. People of the UK are no different in this respect.

Depends on what constitute "betters". It doesn't include experts if the Brexit vote is anything to go by.

View

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I think you'll find that is a global phenomenon, everywhere the majority of people will simply put their trust in the people they believe are their betters, be that the Parish Priest, local politician or whatever.
People of the UK are no different in this respect.

The U.K. is sadly exceptional in the poor calibre of the individuals that have achieved high office there in recent decades.

The combination of extremely expensive “public” schools, and the Oxbridge Universities in many ways operating as a finishing school for their graduates, together with FPTP guaranteeing the vast majority of MPs a job for life produces a highly insular/provincial mentality which is utterly Westminster focused and just isn’t up to dealing with other countries which operate on a more meritocratic or technocratic basis.

listermint

View wrote: »

The U.K. is sadly exceptional in the poor calibre of the individuals that have achieved high office there in recent decades.

The combination of extremely expensive “public” schools, and the Oxbridge Universities in many ways operating as a finishing school for their graduates, together with FPTP guaranteeing the vast majority of MPs a job for life produces a highly insular/provincial mentality which is utterly Westminster focused and just isn’t up to dealing with other countries which operate on a more meritocratic or technocratic basis.

superb analysis. And very apt given all of the recent gafs coming out of senior ministers

It's now July and with it the removal of the option to extend. Thank God.

Leroy42

[Deleted User] wrote: »

It's now July and with it the removal of the option to extend. Thank God.

It was an option not an obligation. Since the YK had no intention to exercise it then nothing has changed.

Strange thing to thank god for.

Enzokk

So the deadline has passed and we will have to wait and see who has the upper hand going forward. If you see the words of Barnier it seems like he will not be mincing his words about what could happen.

Barnier confirms UK has missed Brexit equivalence assessment deadline

EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier has confirmed claims that the UK has not completed necessary equivalence assessments by today’s deadline, marking a blow to the UK’s efforts to determine the City’s access to EU markets after Brexit.

Valdis Dombrovskis, a European Commission executive vice-president, yesterday said the UK had so far answered only four of 28 questionnaires sent by Brussels seeking information about British regulation of the financial services industry after the Brexit transition period.

Barnier today confirmed that the UK has not completed its equivalence questionnaires by today’s deadline.

In a statement, the EU chief negotiator said: “As you know, the political declaration committed us to ‘best endeavours’ to finalise our respective assessments by the end of June.”

“The European Commission has therefore sent questionnaires to the UK, covering 28 areas where equivalence assessments are possible. So far, the UK has only answered four of these questionnaires. So we are not there yet.”

The government received 1,000-plus pages of questions in April and May, with the last 248 pages arriving on 25 May.

Both Brussels and London had agreed to complete assessments of the other’s regulatory regimes by today’s deadline, with the hope that they would be deemed “equivalent”, therefore allowing businesses to continue as usual into next year.

If anything this is another reference point for the EU to use if they want to "hurt" the UK. Both sides commit to a date to complete information that would be beneficial to both, yet the UK dithers and delays and doesn't meet its obligations. This could get very ugly indeed if the UK decides to go down that route.

Just a follow up on the piece about David Frost being a NSA for Johnson, Theresa May questioned Michael Gove about it and as you can see in these tweets she was not best pleased with the situation or the answer,

https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1277932346797416448?s=20

I find myself agreeing with May here, the NSA cannot be a political appointment. If you want to see why not, just look at the US now where Trump's appointments in the area of National Security are out to bat for him to deny that Russia offered bounties but it seems like the evidence is there. Would Frost pick his friendship with Cummings and Johnson over the security of the UK if it came down to it? I am starting to feel we don't really want a close relationship with a UK lead by the current government.

Leroy42

What is the thinking behind not answering the questions? 4 out of 28 and by Barniers answer it would appear that the UK have not informed them they wouldn't do it.

UK seemed to gave dragged their feet throughout the entire process, apart from triggering A50 1which they did with such haste.

I could understand if they told the EU that they don't agree and thus it was off the table, but this appears like they said they would and then just didn't.

What is the advantage to such an approach?

declanflynn

Leroy42 wrote: »

It was an option not an obligation. Since the YK had no intention to exercise it then nothing has changed.

Strange thing to thank god for.

I think he means the uk took that option away from themselves, I cant wait til they are gone, the EU will do fine with out them, not so sure how the uk will do without the EU.
The EU should cut them loose now

Peregrinus

The commitment was only ever to use best endeavours to finalise assessments by the end of June. And, since that commitment was made, events have intervened. Like the CV19 pandemic, diverting political attention and aministrative resources away from boring but mercifully non-fatal things like fincancial regulation equivalence assessments.

So, this need not be a deliberate strategy on the part of the UK to fail to meet the timescale in order to secure some advantage. They may have failed to meet the deadline because they were unable to meet it.

The CV19 pandemic is not the only thing at work here. Not even the warmest supporters of the UK government will say that the Brexit process has been either well-planned or well-executed on the UK side. It is quite possible that the UK government made the commitment to target a 1 July completion date for this assessment without ever giving any thought to the question of how feasible that would be.

It was, remember, the UK which originally asked for the transitional period, and it was first conceived of as a period of 21 months. By a succession of decisions to delay the start date of the transition period, but to refuse to comtemplate any deferral of the end date, the UK has shortened it to 11 months, while by other decisions, such as the repudiation of the "oven-ready deal" for which they secured a mandate at the recent election, they have greatly magnified the range of tasks that are supposed to be accomplished within the transition period. Deadlines being missed is the least of the problems that you can expect when you go about a project in this fashion.

CelticRambler

Leroy42 wrote: »

What is the thinking behind not answering the questions? 4 out of 28 and by Barniers answer it would appear that the UK have not informed them they wouldn't do it.
...
What is the advantage to such an approach?

Probably no advantage at all. My suspicion would be that an awful lot of these questions are framed along the lines of "what UK processes/guidelines are in place to guarantee [x] in the event of [y]" and in many, many instances, the answer is "Uhhhh ... well, the ones we had when we were part of the EU"

For 40 years, the UK has voluntarily outsourced standards regulation to the EU and got used to living in this comfortable and efficient arrangement. Their chaotic rush to a no-deal Brexit means they suddenly have to start thinking for themselves on every different matter, and there just aren't enough hours in the year, or people in the civil service, to translate every good EU idea into a British rule that doesn't look exactly the same ... and undermine the whole raison d'être of #TakeBackControl

Nody

Leroy42 wrote: »

What is the thinking behind not answering the questions? 4 out of 28 and by Barniers answer it would appear that the UK have not informed them they wouldn't do it.

From what I recall from another article simply that the UK government feels the questionaires are to broad in their scope and goes into areas they don't feel are relevant for financial services (cherry picking as usual what they think should or should not be included in the assessment by EU). There is more fun stuff in there such as UK wants to have a say in EU financial policies, right for travel for workers etc. It's all part of UK's idea they can make minideals in an per area they care about approach rather then a single comprehensive deal that handles everything. Hence they want a mini deal on financial services, then another mini deal on this and that and they can then ignore having to strike a deal in areas such as equivalence on labor rights etc. Of course EU is well aware of this and have stated it's one big deal or nothing basically; it's at the core of the negotiations going on.

ambro25

On the topic of the "4 out of 28" questionnaires issue discussed above, I saw a tweet yesterday offerring a bit of mitigation for the UK, relating that the EU had itself been slow/late in getting back to the UK, with answers to some of the UK's questions about them, replying only a couple days before the deadline.

Can't remember who, sorry. But it wasn't a "rah-rah'ing" Brexiteer tweet btw, it struck me as informed and objective.

Deliberate stalling by Barnier's team, or not, is a moot notion: there was nothing stopping the UK completing the questionnaires in several versions, according to alternatives contingent on possible EU responses, and then handing in the versions drafted according to the EU's actual responses in good time. That approach would just be the standard level of 'all due care' to expect, considering the circumstances and what is at stake.

I'm completely unmoved by their plight here, and there aren't enough tiny violins in the whole wide world to play that sweet karmic melody.

Between that one with Barnier, and Merkel's warning today ("there may not be a deal"), I'm guessing Paris, Frankfurt and Dublin will be in danger of running out of champagne by tonight. Davis would be safe to discount rescue by Italian Prosecco bottlers, after discounting rescue by German car manufacturers.

maebee

I wonder how many of the 17 million who voted for Brexit on the grounds of immigration, are feeling tonight as the UK government has today offered 2.9 million people in Hong Kong citizenship rights in the UK.