Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

Twister2

Ya labour has no clear message on brexit

Nonsense about insulating homes won't win the election

How dangerous can the BP be if they get traction with their " this is not brexit " message.

Joe_ Public

Not sure if you were a remain supporter you'd ignore or abandon labour if they were the only realistic contender to the conservatives, as will be the case in scores of constituencies. No doubt a lot of voters will, thus counterintuitivily reducing the odds of remain. Guess it depends on the constituency but you have that unique dynamic in play and its on both sides. By fielding a candidate in Cheltenham for example, TBP would be pretty much handing that seat to lib dems. Why would they want to do that? Bizarre times.

Twister2

Twister2 wrote: »

How dangerous can the BP be if they get traction with their " this is not brexit " message.

Not much.

Brexit fatigue combined with the Boris Deal should reasonably unite the Leave vote.

Farage is more likely to damage the Labour vote.

Dyr

Roger_007 wrote: »

It seems to me that both sides of the Brexit debate in the UK are under the impression that the EU actually wants the UK to remain in the EU. While that may have been true three years ago, I'm not so sure that it's still true.
A lot of water has gone under the bridge in the last three years and the mood in the EU seems to have changed. The UK has caused so much disruption with their indecision and party political shenanigans that the EU might be tempted to say to the UK 'take the deal that's on offer by Jan 31st or leave without a deal, there will be no more extensions or negotiations'.
I don't think 'remain' is a realistic option anymore.

Pretty much, I reckon a lot of the EU 27 know that if the UK remains it will just be more and more of the same instability from them without any real end.

Better to be shot of them maybe they'll be back in 5-10 years begging for for another chance

quokula

prawnsambo wrote: »

You're really going overboard here. Survation published the poll. LD published part of it and linked to the rest. All the data is there. Your 'how many polls before the right answer' rightly belongs in the CT forum. Have you even looked at the data?

Yes I looked at the data, I went through the spreadsheet. I work in data science (for products, not politics) so I know how easy it is to get different results based on the nature and phrasing of questions and the cohort of people polled.

The data is available publicly because it's legally required to be. They did their best to only show the misleading result, with the hope nobody would read the smallprint. They were a very distant third at the last general election. They cherrypicked one poll that suggests they might have a chance to come second (taken from a small sample, at a time before the election campaign, before manifestos, before candidates have been nominated and before voters have engaged their brains) then combined that with a hugely misleading question implying the Libs were the only possible way to beat the Tories (which they still lost), and published the result of that in a way that implied it was the actual situation, hoping nobody would read the tiny smallprint they were legally required to include.

I used to be an actual card carrying member of the Lib Dems, though I just paid my membership fee, never attended any of the local meetings as they seemed to be timed to only attract people who don't have jobs. I voted for them in 2010 and 2015. Under Tim Farron they started to veer away from being a progressive party and almost all of the material they sent me consisted of baseless attacks on Labour that was usually heavily misleading, which continued under Vince Cable and got even worse since Swinson took over. Their cynical attempts to co-opt the Remain vote has been particularly distasteful. I actually saw Vince Cable in an interview yesterday (now that he's retiring and not campaigning for the Lib Dems) saying that a Soft Brexit remaining in the customs union is probably the most elegant solution to Britain's problems - the literal Labour policy that he railed against as party leader.

quokula

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Not sure if you were a remain supporter you'd ignore or abandon labour if they were the only realistic contender to the conservatives, as will be the case in scores of constituencies. No doubt a lot of voters will, thus counterintuitivily reducing the odds of remain. Guess it depends on the constituency but you have that unique dynamic in play and its on both sides. By fielding a candidate in Cheltenham for example, TBP would be pretty much handing that seat to lib dems. Why would they want to do that? Bizarre times.

When people start to really think about it and realise Labour are literally the only party offering a realistic route to remain while the Lib Dems take pot shots from the sidelines then we'll see the remain vote moving back towards them.

It's worth remembering that there were many predictions of a Lib Dem surge in the 2017 GE with the 48% all supposedly converging on them and pre-campaign polls showing a Labour collapse, but the actual election result had the vote more concentrated on the main two parties than any election for decades.

Labour are the only pragmatic choice if you're a UK remainer, their real problem will be how many votes they lost to leavers. There is a huge cohort in England of working class leave voters who will be disillusioned with Labour's stance on a second referendum. Many of them won't be able to bring themselves to vote Tory, but the Brexit party could play a significant role here. I think behind the scenes this is what Farage will be working on achieving.

Worth linking this article https://news.sky.com/story/sky-views-remainers-can-no-longer-take-yes-for-an-answer-11790224 which so eloquently describes why the anti-labour position is so logically nonsensical for remainers.

CelticRambler

Everything about this election serves to highlight the democratic deficiency within the UK that led to the Brexit referendum and, ultimately, to the Hokey-Cokey Brexit negotiations. Decades of FPTP has destroyed any constructive movement towards consensual government. This (overblown, imo) carry-on about the Lib Dems' supposed hypocrisy over a bar chart is just more of the same: attack, attack, attack. The first interviews with all party spokesmen are the same - determined attempts to undermine the (leader of the) other parties with precious little time or attention given to examining their hastily published vote-getting campaign promises.

I can see the logic of tactical voting to get a remain-leaning parliament, or soft-Brexit at worst, but I don't have any great expectation that that'll be the outcome. It should have been easy enough to do with the numbers they had in the HoC until this week, but none of the personalites involved compromised enough to make it work, and if they didn't do it then over the single issue of Brexit, I can't see it happening when they come back in December with a similarly indecisive parliament.

CelticRambler

CelticRambler wrote: »

Everything about this election serves to highlight the democratic deficiency within the UK that led to the Brexit referendum and, ultimately, to the Hokey-Cokey Brexit negotiations. Decades of FPTP has destroyed any constructive movement towards consensual government. This (overblown, imo) carry-on about the Lib Dems' supposed hypocrisy over a bar chart is just more of the same: attack, attack, attack. The first interviews with all party spokesmen are the same - determined attempts to undermine the (leader of the) other parties with precious little time or attention given to examining their hastily published vote-getting campaign promises.

I can see the logic of tactical voting to get a remain-leaning parliament, or soft-Brexit at worst, but I don't have any great expectation that that'll be the outcome. It should have been easy enough to do with the numbers they had in the HoC until this week, but none of the personalites involved compromised enough to make it work, and if they didn't do it then over the single issue of Brexit, I can't see it happening when they come back in December with a similarly indecisive parliament.

As a Brexit supporter, I would vote for the Liberal Democrats - then ignore the election result.

Ellian

quokula wrote: »

It was stated in tiny small print that they hoped the majority of people wouldn't notice. And it was a wildly leading question purposely intended to produce a misleading result.

This didn't come *after* a real poll showing them ahead. They commissioned both questions as part of the same poll. I'm assuming that people had to answer the fair question before answering the loaded one but I'm not sure if that was guaranteed - if they had seen or heard the loaded question before answering the fair one then that would have anchored their thinking and completely skewed the results. The other thing we don't know is how many polls they commissioned until they got the result they want, which is perfectly feasible with the small sample size. Survation are only required to show the workings of polls that actually get published (this is a requirement by the way, not some generous show of transparency from the Lib Dems like you make out)

It's possible that it was all above board, but when the one they choose to publish is based on such a wildly misleading question, and they have form of misleading data elsewhere, and for it to be true it would require a completely historically unprecedented swing in the space of two years from the only 100% reliable poll we actually have which is the last election, it gets hard to believe.

IMO it's skirting very close to the push polling tactics used by Karl Rove when Bush Junior was running against McCain for the GOp nod. "Would you be less likely to vote for John McCain if you knew he had fathered an illegitimate black child?" which they no doubt argued was an innocent hypothetical question but when coupled with the fact that McCain and his wife had an adopted daughter from Bangladesh who he was regularly seen with in public no doubt set people's opinions based on something that was simply not true without ever having technically told a lie.

prawnsambo

quokula wrote: »

Yes I looked at the data, I went through the spreadsheet. I work in data science (for products, not politics) so I know how easy it is to get different results based on the nature and phrasing of questions and the cohort of people polled.

The data is available publicly because it's legally required to be. They did their best to only show the misleading result, with the hope nobody would read the smallprint. They were a very distant third at the last general election. They cherrypicked one poll that suggests they might have a chance to come second (taken from a small sample, at a time before the election campaign, before manifestos, before candidates have been nominated and before voters have engaged their brains) then combined that with a hugely misleading question implying the Libs were the only possible way to beat the Tories (which they still lost), and published the result of that in a way that implied it was the actual situation, hoping nobody would read the tiny smallprint they were legally required to include.

It's a small poll in one constuituency that seems to show a big swing in support for LD. That may be for any number of reasons, including the relative profiles of the candidates, dislike for JRM coupled with Tory-lite voters, party position on brexit or local issues that have nothing to do with brexit. And the candidates were all named in the poll. I'm also unsure why you charactarise the follow up question as being misleading. It's the kind of question you'd ask to find out whether or not to push resources into that constituency or concentrate your effort elsewhere.

quokula wrote: »

I used to be an actual card carrying member of the Lib Dems, though I just paid my membership fee, never attended any of the local meetings as they seemed to be timed to only attract people who don't have jobs. I voted for them in 2010 and 2015. Under Tim Farron they started to veer away from being a progressive party and almost all of the material they sent me consisted of baseless attacks on Labour that was usually heavily misleading, which continued under Vince Cable and got even worse since Swinson took over. Their cynical attempts to co-opt the Remain vote has been particularly distasteful. I actually saw Vince Cable in an interview yesterday (now that he's retiring and not campaigning for the Lib Dems) saying that a Soft Brexit remaining in the customs union is probably the most elegant solution to Britain's problems - the literal Labour policy that he railed against as party leader.

So? Labour seem to have shifted their position a fair bit since Vince Cable was leader. And hard line stances have hardened a great deal on both sides. A middle ground needs to be found so that (as I keep saying) an alliance of sorts needs to be established to remove the Tories from government. If the SNP and LD can concentrate on taking Tory seats where Labour isn't polling well, Labour can concentrate on marginals where they could make gains if the others left them to it.

CelticRambler

Deleted User wrote: »

As a Brexit supporter, I would vote for the Liberal Democrats - then ignore the election result.

Which you would be entitled to do, but while you were ignoring it, the LibDems would be equally entitled to pursue whatever policies you had voted for.

And if you didn't like what they did, you could change your mind, and vote differently five years later.

Capt'n Midnight

Sinn Féin has said it will not run candidates in South Belfast, East Belfast or North Down urging its voters to back the pro-remain candidates in those constituencies.

DUP's attempt at forcing an election pact with the UUP is really working out well for them.

Enzokk

Another election today, the new Speaker of the House will be elected today. Seems like the favourite is Sir Lyndsay Hoyle but we will have to see how it goes later.

Imreoir2

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Sinn Féin has said it will not run candidates in South Belfast, East Belfast or North Down urging its voters to back the pro-remain candidates in those constituencies.

DUP's attempt at forcing an election pact with the UUP is really working out well for them.

That will put the cat amongst the pidgons. Is this the first time in history SF and the SDLP will be recomending that their voters should support a Unionist candidate (Lady Hermon)?

What strange bedfellows Brexit is making. Though to be fair, Lady Hermon has been the only voice for the majority in NI in Westminster over the past few years.

GM228

Enzokk wrote: »

Another election today, the new Speaker of the House will be elected today. Seems like the favourite is Sir Lyndsay Hoyle but we will have to see how it goes later.

It's one election I wish they were not having as I'll miss Bercow, he was well able for anything put before him and often gave some amusing viewing, I'm not sure anyone else could live up to that to be honest.

Enzokk

So it seems like no-deal is not off the table and this election will be crucial if the UK wants avoid that cliff edge,

https://twitter.com/jrmaidment/status/1191324272385544192?s=20

I will take Johnson with a ton of salt, but it is obvious how he has won over the ERG. He only needs to convince Farage of this as well and he could be on the way to an easy majority, so it is imperative for Labour to work together with the other parties to stop Johnson. Unfortunately they will not be able to look past the promised utopia of a Corbyn led UK so they will sabotage this and blame everyone else for their part on not stopping the disaster coming.

GM228

Hardly surprising.

Brexit Party MEPs have some of the worst attendance records in European Parliament

Their attendance records will call into question the integrity of the party, whose MEPs consistently paint themselves as being committed to the day-to-day procedure of the European Parliament – despite being fervently opposed to its existence.

One of the party’s most prominent MEPs, Alexandra Phillips, has posted videos on Twitter falsely claiming that the Brexit Party MEPs are the only ones who turn up to Parliament, while other MEPs proudly broadcast their speeches to thousands of gullible followers.

And still on the subject of MEPs:-

https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1191288029761220609?s=19

prawnsambo

Enzokk wrote: »

So it seems like no-deal is not off the table and this election will be crucial if the UK wants avoid that cliff edge,

https://twitter.com/jrmaidment/status/1191324272385544192?s=20

I will take Johnson with a ton of salt, but it is obvious how he has won over the ERG. He only needs to convince Farage of this as well and he could be on the way to an easy majority, so it is imperative for Labour to work together with the other parties to stop Johnson. Unfortunately they will not be able to look past the promised utopia of a Corbyn led UK so they will sabotage this and blame everyone else for their part on not stopping the disaster coming.

Yep. If you strip away all the stuff about the future relationship, no deal is all you're really left with. And the warning sign for me was that the TP was not extended to take account of the passage of time since it was last set.

Leroy42

People seem to missing the point that Brexit has driven a coach through the traditional party lines.

TM had a majority, then she had a working majority, in the HoC but failed to get her deal through because a large rump of her own party refused to vote for it.

And Labour, when in government, will have the same problem. The party leaders are fighting hard to portray this election as the usual either/or decision, but really is isn't. It is clear that traditional party voting patterns can no longer be relied upon, at least when it comes to Brexit.

And the media are largely running with that narrative because they still haven't come to terms with the new political reality.

J Mysterio

Enzokk wrote: »

So it seems like no-deal is not off the table and this election will be crucial if the UK wants avoid that cliff edge,

https://twitter.com/jrmaidment/status/1191324272385544192?s=20

I will take Johnson with a ton of salt, but it is obvious how he has won over the ERG. He only needs to convince Farage of this as well and he could be on the way to an easy majority, so it is imperative for Labour to work together with the other parties to stop Johnson. Unfortunately they will not be able to look past the promised utopia of a Corbyn led UK so they will sabotage this and blame everyone else for their part on not stopping the disaster coming.

Johnson's word is worth absolutely nothing. He said 'do or die' and 'rather die in a ditch' with regard to Oct 31st. His deadlines are meaningless.

Sam Russell

Leroy42 wrote: »

People seem to missing the point that Brexit has driven a coach through the traditional party lines.

TM had a majority, then she had a working majority, in the HoC but failed to get her deal through because a large rump of her own party refused to vote for it.

And Labour, when in government, will have the same problem. The party leaders are fighting hard to portray this election as the usual either/or decision, but really is isn't. It is clear that traditional party voting patterns can no longer be relied upon, at least when it comes to Brexit.

And the media are largely running with that narrative because they still haven't come to terms with the new political reality.

Because of FPTP, the two main parties were always each a coalition of elements that were prepared to be fellow travellers.

Labour with the left wing Socialist wing that wanted nationalisation and disarmament, travelling with the Trade Union wing who wanted workers rights, etc.

The Tories were a coalition of 'One Nation' Tories who were more middle of the road, plus the right wing currently seen in the ERG group.

If they had STV with multi seat constituencies, then there could be five or six main parties competing with a resulting coalition being prepared for compromise rather than winner takes all.

However, it is deemed that the voters are incapable of voting down the card 'in the order of their choice'. 'What comes after 'X'?

It is the counting that is complicated, not the voting.

Professor Moriarty

J Mysterio wrote: »

Johnson's word is worth absolutely nothing. He said 'do or die' and 'rather die in a ditch' with regard to Oct 31st. His deadlines are meaningless.

350 million a week for the NHS. I'm sure he'll be mentioning that on the campaign trail.

Joe_ Public

J Mysterio wrote: »

Johnson's word is worth absolutely nothing. He said 'do or die' and 'rather die in a ditch' with regard to Oct 31st. His deadlines are meaningless.

He's only saying it because of the brexit party, they're being pushed in that direction. Farage is dictating tory policy, enjoying his position of power. Not going to win any seats but messing with their heads at least gives a bit of a thrill.

J Mysterio

J Mysterio wrote: »

Johnson's word is worth absolutely nothing. He said 'do or die' and 'rather die in a ditch' with regard to Oct 31st. His deadlines are meaningless.

Why do people trash Johnson for being a liar?

We know he's a liar, so are virtually all politicians - including all leaders of opposing political parties.

What I want is a leader, and if that means using constructive deception, then I'm all for it.

A Dub in Glasgo

Without Labour, the 'Remain alliance' is a dead duck


' a “Remain alliance” pact is due to launch this week, which will see Liberal Democrat, Green and Plaid Cymru candidates stand aside for each other in up to 60 seats....

However, there is one glaring problem: Labour is not involved. The Lib Dems do not want to open the deal up to even the most Europhile Labour candidates because of their aversion to anything that suggests they might help to put Jeremy Corbyn in Downing Street. The Labour leader has studiously avoided saying whether the party would campaign for Remain in the referendum it is promising on any Brexit deal it negotiates.'

Sir John Curtice, the polling expert, argues that this means that, far from the 60 seats spoken of by the Lib Dems, the “Remain alliance” has a chance of swinging the result in six at most.

Without Labour involvement, Sir John is clear. The “Remain alliance” is “one of those stories that takes off before anyone looks as some simple psephological reality. It is difficult to see how a LibDem/Green/Plaid Cymru/Change/Independent Tory pact would have more than a marginal effect — though of course such an effect might matter.”

Remain alliance could affect just six seats in UK election, not 60

VinLieger

Deleted User wrote: »

Why do people trash Johnson for being a liar?

We know he's a liar, so are virtually all politicians - including all leaders of opposing political parties.

What I want is a leader, and if that means using constructive deception, then I'm all for it.

Wait so let me get this straight you think a key quality of a good leader is somebody who lies habitually and tells everyone exactly what they want to hear regardless of the true facts of a situation?

LeinsterDub

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1191341879599734784?s=19

If you see anyone claiming they know what the outcome of this election will be just show them them above tweet

VinLieger

VinLieger wrote: »

Wait so let me get this straight you think a key quality of a good leader is somebody who lies habitually and tells everyone exactly what they want to hear regardless of the true facts of a situation?

I would rather have a morally imperfect leader, than a morally perfect politician who lacks leadership qualities and potential.

Whilst I acknowledge Johnson's personal flaws, I think his capacity to be a quality, long-term leader in the interests of the UK, are exceptional.

To quote Daniel Hannan in his recent Telegraph article, we "know Boris to be brilliant".

hometruths

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1191341879599734784?s=19

If you see anyone claiming they know what the outcome of this election will be just show them them above tweet

Agreed! And Portsmouth south was a 52% Leave Constituency in EU ref. If that poll is to be believed the Lib Dems position is not as laughable as some would have you believe.

prawnsambo

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1191341879599734784?s=19

If you see anyone claiming they know what the outcome of this election will be just show them them above tweet

The big message here is that the BXP are killing the Tories. Worth noting that this is a Labour seat and the poll was conducted on behalf of the LDs. Stephen Morgan (Lab) is a remainer and the constituency was a narrow leave vote: 51.8/48.2.