Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

Nody

c.p.w.g.w wrote: »

Hasn't EU immigration to the UK not dropped over the past 3 years

Yup; see section 4 here. Basically non EU immigration is continuing up and EU immigration is falling like a rock; so more Indians etc. which I'm guessing the Brexit crowd feels is the wrong direction but you get what you vote for so to speak. EU immigration has always been less than non EU immigration and non EU immigration has always been 100% within UK's power to control by their own parliament and government and they have done diddly squat about it. But I'm sure that's EU's fault as well somehow as I've noted above.

Joe_ Public

Rjd2 wrote: »

They don't really. The Tories since Cameron came in have always talked tough on immigration before an election but showed little interest in reducing numbers once in power. The only true immigration skeptics the tories have had on the front bench are May and Patel.

Boris for example couldn't give a **** about the numbers but knows saying "points based system" sounds tough.

Yes thats fair. I think there's an understanding that when it comes to elections immigration isnt much of a vote winner. I mean, it delivered in 2016, but not a year later when ukip crashed in the GE. I think even farage understands that because i notice he tends not to bring it up in his interviews very much. Maybe its different in his radio shows, dont listen to them.

Seth Brundle

JD Wetherspoon investors should vote against the company’s annual report because of the chain’s spending on pro-Brexit materials

Investors in UK pub chain JD Wetherspoon are being urged to reject the firm's annual report over its failure to clear pro-Brexit spending.

The call comes from influential shareholder group Pirc, which says the promotion broke company law.

It comes after Wetherspoon's spent nearly £95,000 on pro-Leave beermats, posters and booklets during the 2016 referendum campaign.

Pirc said such political expenditure required shareholders' backing.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-50329890

Leroy42

Very telling interview about immigration. It clearly shows the they have no intention of lowering the numbers in any meaningful way. I recall reading that they will extend immigration to EU nationals for the NHS as they need them to fill the vacancies, but they will require a visa and the associated costs and paperwork.

The immigration, since it is such a fundamental issue within Brexit, should really be at the core of their message. "Once FOM is gone we will reduce it by 50%" or whatever.

CelticRambler

Rjd2 wrote: »

Boris for example couldn't give a **** about the numbers but knows saying "points based system" sounds tough.

There was an amusing comment under the Twitter video posted above, someone saying something to the effect of "Taking the brightest and best means they'll get all the decent positions, leaving only the crappy jobs for the English."

Sounds very like the system they have in place at the moment.

ballsymchugh

CelticRambler wrote: »

There's only one Jewish state in the world, but lots of Semitic states. The Palestinians, for example, are one of several Semite people.

if ever a post showed that there needs to be a dedicated brexit forum so that side plots like this can be discussed without taking away from the main subject, this is it...

well.. that and a few more.

(no disrespect CR)

Leroy42

It is easy to laugh at the ridiculousness of the Johnson video, and giggle at how seemingly out of his depth he is and how little he seems to understand the deal, but to me it sounds the alarm bells.

This deal is nothing more than a stopgap for the UK. Something to buy them more time. They have no intention of actually abiding by it. He says that under no way will forms be required for NI to GB, and you can be sure that he will be saying the exact same to business in GB.

So where does that leave the control of regulations in Ireland? Nowhere. We will have lost control of the border and the next step is that we will be faced with a decision to either accept checks into mainland EU or erect a border. We will have to erect a border.

It will be done slowly of course. A little bit of leeway here, a relaxing of checks there. It makes no sense for a country that wants to reduce regulations on business to introduce new compliance burdens.

I am very quickly coming to the view that the EU has bought a pup on this, and Ireland has been suckered into believing the lines from the UK.

A Dub in Glasgo

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1192814543380062213

CelticRambler

On the Guardian website at the moment is a (long, very long!) article about the potential role of high-tech companies in the next big global financial crash. Here are a few paragraphs that give a flavour of what's discussed:

Like most of the largest and most profitable multinational companies, Apple has loads of cash – around $210bn at last count – as well as plenty of debt (close to $110bn). That is because – like nearly every other large, rich company – it has parked most of its spare cash in offshore bond portfolios over the past 10 years. This is part of a Kafkaesque financial shell game that has played out since the 2008 financial crisis.

Because of this, the wealth divide has been increased, which many economists believe is not only the biggest factor in slower-than-historic trend growth, but is also driving the political populism that threatens the market system itself.

That phenomenon has been put on steroids by yet another trend epitomised by Apple: the rise of intangibles such as intellectual property and brands (both of which the company has in spades) relative to tangible goods as a share of the global economy.

A large part of the Brexiter's economic argument is based on (yet more) deregulation and the supposed trickle-down benefits that will accrue to the UK once Britannia is free to surf the waves. Within days of being branded "the Brexit election", the various parties are already back to fighting the same old battles of the past (NHS, police, schools, jobs, jobs, jobs, and a load of benefit increases) with barely even a promise to bring these global corporations into line. I think it's interesting that it's over in Brussels that politicians are discussing ways of keeping European money (and data and intellectual property) in Europe. To pick up a point from our own debate a few days ago, if the Brussels draws an uncrossable line between the EU and London, why bother trying to do this kind of business in Singapore-on-Thames when you could just as easily do it in Singapore-for-Real.

gimli2112

Just watching BBCs Laura ask Nicola Sturgeon how does she reconcile that more people voted Leave in Scotland than for the SNP. Sturgeon seemed stunned and pointed out the EU referendum had a far larger turnout, then both of them seemed to accept it was a ridiculous question and moved on.
I don't understand some of the reporting.

ancapailldorcha

Mod: This is not the place to discuss the Israel-Palestine situation so those posts have been deleted. One contentious topic per thread is enough methinks.

A Dub in Glasgo

gimli2112 wrote: »

Just watching BBCs Laura ask Nicola Sturgeon how does she reconcile that more people voted Leave in Scotland than for the SNP. Sturgeon seemed stunned and pointed out the EU referendum had a far larger turnout, then both of them seemed to accept it was a ridiculous question and moved on.
I don't understand some of the reporting.

It is a ridiculous question but it is the line of questioning from the Tories in Scotland (who obviously fed it to Kuenssberg to ask Sturgeon)

Rjd2

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1192814543380062213

When Labour elected the current leader in England whose name I can't be bothered to look up, the chatter was about how he could beat the SNP from the left. I suppose time is on his side....

Tories at least are not doing as awful so might be able to rally the unionist vote and hold a seat or two best case scenario. Although its a serious come down from 2017.

Will Swinson hold her seat? I seen she was 2/7 with skybet which seems terrible value.

black forest

CelticRambler wrote: »

A large part of the Brexiter's economic argument is based on (yet more) deregulation and the supposed trickle-down benefits that will accrue to the UK once Britannia is free to surf the waves. Within days of being branded "the Brexit election", the various parties are already back to fighting the same old battles of the past (NHS, police, schools, jobs, jobs, jobs, and a load of benefit increases) with barely even a promise to bring these global corporations into line. I think it's interesting that it's over in Brussels that politicians are discussing ways of keeping European money (and data and intellectual property) in Europe. To pick up a point from our own debate a few days ago, if the Brussels draws an uncrossable line between the EU and London, why bother trying to do this kind of business in Singapore-on-Thames when you could just as easily do it in Singapore-for-Real.

Which brings us directly to the newest FTA coming into effect end of November. So contemplating a Singapore-on-Thames would be really superfluous.

https://twitter.com/malmstromeu/status/1192791960114941953?s=21

Having a look at it clearly shows that a lot of services are included. All this will the UK lose and have to renegotiate. Should Singapore have interest.

Singapore is by far the EU's largest trading partner in the Southeast Asian region, with a total bilateral trade in goods of over €53 billion and another €51 billion of trade in services. Over 10,000 EU companies are established in Singapore and use it as a hub for the whole Pacific region. Singapore is also the number one location for European investment in Asia, with investment between the EU and Singapore growing rapidly in recent years: combined bilateral investment stocks reached €344 billion in 2017.

Commissioner for Trade Cecilia Malmström said: “Our trade agreement with Singapore provides further evidence of our commitment to fair and rules-based trade. The agreement will benefit workers, farmers and companies of all sizes, both here and in Singapore. It also includes strong clauses protecting human and labour rights and the environment. This agreement means that in the last five years we have put in place 16 EU trade deals. This brings the total to 42 trade agreements with 73 partners, accounting for a third of total EU trade. This is the largest such network in the world.”

Jean-Claude Juncker said: “This is the European Union's first bilateral trade agreement with a Southeast Asian country, a building block towards a closer relationship between Europe and one of the most dynamic regions in the world. It crowns the efforts of this Commission to build a network of partners committed to open, fair and rules based trade. Trade has created 5 million new jobs in the EU since I took office in 2014, and now contributes to the employment of 36 million people. This, together with the fact that it accounts for 35% of the EU GDP, shows how critical trade is for Europe's prosperity.”

https://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-19-6222_en.htm



Add to that the fresh signed chinese agreement of origins and the, till now, biggest FTA worldwide with Japan the EU is creating an enormous spider web of free trade arrangements bypassing the US. The UK will be completely left out and diminished to a very minor player next to the biggest trading blocks forming around them. They will become the toy ball for enormous forces.

The Tories must be quite desperate to rescue at least a few working places. Yesterday they signed a contract with german company Krauss—Maffei to buy 500 armoured personnel carriers and transport tanks type “Boxer” for the sum of 3,25bn € or 2,85bn £ which will be build during the next years in the UK at the local companies of Rheinmetall, WFEL and BASystems.

https://twitter.com/gehegmann/status/1192174713105195008?s=21

The first Boxer tanks are to be delivered as early as 2023. Initially, they will be produced in Germany. However, roughly 90 percent of the 500 Boxer tanks will then be manufactured in Great Britain, which will create jobs there. A joint venture between Rheinmetall and BAE Systems as well as the British company WFEL, acquired by KMW in 2012, with several hundred employees each, will be used for this purpose.

About 25 years ago the Boxer was still a British-German-French project. This was followed by a lively exchange of partners. In 1999, France first left the project to build its own model (VBCI). In 2001, the Dutch entered the scene. In 2004, the British left again.

The British then returned to the programme in 2018 with a trick.

The Boxer is under the direction of the European armaments procurement authority Occar. As an Occar member, the British were able to negotiate the purchase of the tank without a lengthy invitation to tender. Besides Germany, the Netherlands and Lithuania, Great Britain becomes the fourth Boxer nation in Europe. Australia also ordered the Boxer.

https://amp.welt.de/wirtschaft/article203124204/Grossbritannien-bestellt-deutsche-Panzer-fuer-ueber-drei-Milliarden-Euro.html?__twitter_impression=true


This contract was signed quite fast just before the elections. Wonder why...

Rjd2

Joe_ Public wrote: »

That would be Nick Timothy CBE to give the obviously soon to be honourable gentleman his rightful title. I read somewhere where he was being jokingly referred to as collossal bell end and that was by members of his own party. Wonder if poor Fi Hill, the chief architect of the 'trousergate' debacle, has anything coming or does she have to content herself with a mere cbe.

In news that will shock nobody Nick Timothy CBE was not selected for this safe seat. I don't know anything about who was but assume his/her USP was that they were not Nick Timothy.

CelticRambler

SNIP. Serious posts only please.

Thargor

That was pure cowardice by Johnson telling those NI business people they could forget about paperwork, he knew he was lying but just like Trump he never engages in face to face confrontation, you could tell he knew it was BS by all the stuttering and uhhmming and ahhhhing, he even shuffles his feet during it.

Strazdas

Thargor wrote: »

That was pure cowardice by Johnson telling those NI business people they could forget about paperwork, he knew he was lying but just like Trump he never engages in face to face confrontation, you could tell he knew it was BS by all the stuttering and uhhmming and ahhhhing, he even shuffles his feet during it.

I think everyone in the room knew he was spoofing, even the people asking the questions.

A Dub in Glasgo

Rjd2 wrote: »

Will Swinson hold her seat? I seen she was 2/7 with skybet which seems terrible value.

The Tories have yet to declare a candidate and they have no chance of winning it so they may step aside or field an unknown

Capt'n Midnight

For a catch up / satire this evening

21:00 BBC1 Have I Got News For You
22:00 BBC2 Mock The Week
22:40 BBC1 NI The Blame Game

22:00 Channel 4 The Last Leg and 23:00 on C4 + 1


Also
Charlie Elphicke: Conservative ( expelled and readmitted ) MP for Dover
This MP's wife will try to hold his seat while he fights sexual assault allegations.

Capt'n Midnight

Rjd2 wrote: »

They don't really. The Tories since Cameron came in have always talked tough on immigration before an election but showed little interest in reducing numbers once in power. The only true immigration skeptics the tories have had on the front bench are May and Patel.

Boris for example couldn't give a **** about the numbers but knows saying "points based system" sounds tough.

May talked the talk but didn't walk the walk.

Lots of noise about a target of 100,000 but did nothing to stop anyone coming in. Mostly threats about sending people home once the stopped paying tax.


The £30,000 limit is a joke. Tories trying to scrap it for skilled migrants seeking five-year visas.

Besides
https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/commentaries/threshold-which-threshold-how-many-non-eu-workers-actually-have-to-meet-the-30000-minimum-income-requirement/

There are some important exceptions to the current £30,000 salary threshold for non-EU citizens on Tier 2 visas. The first is for ‘public service occupations’, a group that comprises nurses, medical radiographers, paramedics and secondary school teachers in certain subjects (maths, physics, chemistry, computer science and Mandarin). People in these roles instead have to meet the standard rates of pay for these jobs – such as the NHS ‘Agenda for Change’ pay-scales – so long as it’s at least £20,800. (Pre-registration nurses can be paid even below this amount.)

The second exception is for “new entrants” to the labour market. This includes non-EU workers under the age of 26 on the date of their visa application, as well as people switching from a study visa to a work visa (Tier 2). For these people, the minimum salary sits at £20,800 per year. This reflects the fact that people in the early stages of their careers cannot necessarily be expected to command the same salaries as those with several years of experience.

Letwin_Larry

the latest YouGov poll does not make pretty reading for Mr. Corbyn.

both of the 2 big parties have seen a fall in support vis a vis 2017, but support for Lab has collapsed in large parts of the NthWest and in the Yorkshire/Humber regions.
Lib Dem & SNP both enjoying surge in support.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/general-election-polls-labour-tories-northern-strongholds-yorkshire-humber-a9195256.html

A Dub in Glasgo

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

the latest YouGov poll does not make pretty reading for Mr. Corbyn.

both of the 2 big parties have seen a fall in support vis a vis 2017, but support for Lab has collapsed in large parts of the NthWest and in the Yorkshire/Humber regions.
Lib Dem & SNP both enjoying surge in support.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/general-election-polls-labour-tories-northern-strongholds-yorkshire-humber-a9195256.html

Just to note that these polls were conducted 23rd - 25th October and only released yesterday. They are already out of date

Joe_ Public

https://www.economist.com/britain/2019/11/07/the-conservatives-are-struggling-to-win-a-crucial-midlands-marginal

A poll with good cheer for labour. Just for a bit of a change, i thought. Paywalled article but gist of it is clear - critical labour seat in leave constituency not swinging to tories.

I hold as much faith in that poll as in any of the rest of them, but I've suspected since the start that the tory strategy of risking almost everything on winning these northern and midlands seats could badly backfire and certainly not going to change my mind now.

CelticRambler

Joe_ Public wrote: »

I've suspected since the start that the tory strategy of risking almost everything on winning these northern and midlands seats could badly backfire and certainly not going to change my mind now.

The Tory Johnson-Cummings strategy of risking everything on winning an unnecessary election already looks like it's backfiring badly. Every day brings a new bungle. At least May waited till the campaign was properly up and running before messing everything up ... :rolleyes:

Letwin_Larry

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Just to note that these polls were conducted 23rd - 25th October and only released yesterday. They are already out of date

actually the fieldword was conducted between 17 oct - 4 nov.
indeed things may be even worse for Mr. Corbyn.

Spanish Eyes

Be better for the Tories to win (or get a slim majority) in the election.

They will then make a dogs dinner of it anyway and I really don't think anyone wants to win this election with such a poisoned chalice before them.

Better to let the Tories run with it and see how difficult it really is on the ground. But maybe I need to get real too. Elections are all about winning, but Labour is toxic, just a little bitteen more than the Tories though.

It has been a mad roller coaster ride for sure, let's see what happens. Will be interesting no matter what. Lots of chatter about tactical voting and what not. But really who would want to take the UK through the next few years of mayhem. Dunno what's for the best.

Rain Ascending

Alternative Arrangements rising from the dead?!?

An interesting little spat has broken out with the technical guys from the Alternative Arrangements Commission on one side and Peter Foster plus the tight group of trade experts that comment heavily on Brexit on the other. The latter have been having a lot of fun at Boris's expense after his cack-handed attempt to sell the Withdrawal Agreement at the meeting with NI Conservatives Thursday evening. Then, up pops Shanker Singham, the main proponent of "alternative arrangements" with
https://twitter.com/ShankerASingham/status/1192872416093097984
Within hours, two others from the same group also appear (Lars Karlsson and Tony Smith), all complaining that they are not getting enough respect for their expertise and efforts. Of course, their claims then are forensically dissected:
https://twitter.com/AnnaJerzewska/status/1192883873325162498

So why now? Particularly since the whole Alternative Arrangements Commission got seriously rebuffed by Johnson in his pell-mell rush to get an agreement with the EU Commission's TF50 team. Remember we were hearing a lot of noise from this group over the summer after Johnson took over as PM. And then it turns out that it was all for nothing as the all-UK backstop (with its inclusion of a promise to consider alternative arrangements) morphed into the NI-only frontstop.

One theory is that they are out to defend Johnson, but I don't buy that. They are not talking much about Johnson's utterances. My guess is that they see an opportunity for alternative arrangements in the NI-GB Irish Sea border. Unlike the NI-ROI border, both sides are in the UK, the number of routes are relatively small, and (I suspect) the businesses using them are relatively speaking bigger and lower in number. I don't have enough expertise to say what, if any, of their solutions could work on the Irish Sea border, but the challenges look significantly less. It will be very interesting to see if they get a warmer reception from the UK Civil Service than they got from TF50.

Perhaps they should team up with the DUP. They can compare notes on how Johnson has treated them...

theological

Looking at more regional polls from YouGov on a regional basis. It looks like Johnson has taken a lead from Labour even in traditional Labour heartlands like Yorkshire and the Humber and the North West and tightened their leads over Labour in the West Midlands, the South East, the South West and the East of England. They are 1 point behind Labour in Wales. Brexit party vote splitting is only likely to cause them issues in the North East.

It doesn't look like England in particular has changed it's mind very much since 2016 and it looks like Corbyn has a huge job on his hands to claw this lead back.

lawred2

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Be better for the Tories to win (or get a slim majority) in the election.

They will then make a dogs dinner of it anyway and I really don't think anyone wants to win this election with such a poisoned chalice before them.

Better to let the Tories run with it and see how difficult it really is on the ground. But maybe I need to get real too. Elections are all about winning, but Labour is toxic, just a little bitteen more than the Tories though.

It has been a mad roller coaster ride for sure, let's see what happens. Will be interesting no matter what. Lots of chatter about tactical voting and what not. But really who would want to take the UK through the next few years of mayhem. Dunno what's for the best.

Labour is toxic is based on what exactly?