Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

Dyr

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

when a moderate like David Blunkett says this then you know there's something rotten at the heart of the Lab party. Thuggery & Antisemitism.

“The behaviour of the hard left within the Labour party – the antisemitism, the thuggery, the irrational views on security and international issues, and the lack of realisation that you have to embrace a big tent of people in order to win – certainly makes me despair.

“But it also makes the likelihood of an all-out Labour majority in this general election extraordinarily slim. The political landscape right now is completely different to what the hard-left would have you believe.

“We are in a 1983 situation here, not a 2017 one – with not only the Lib Dems and the Greens, but the Brexit party, the Tories and the SNP all seriously vying for traditional Labour votes.”

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/08/david-blunkett-says-he-despairs-about-labour-and-antisemitism

Blunkett is a funny version of a moderate.

You'll be telling me Jack Straw was a moderate next

CelticRambler

quokula wrote: »

While a lot of that is true in the past, in more recent times he’s made xenophobic comments, been pro-Brexit and and wasn’t his complaint when leaving Britain that the politicians hadn’t delivered Brexit yet?

His changing views as he got older are like a living embodiment of UK demographics.

Any time I've seen him being interviewed, he's still the pushing the same Lib Dem
agenda as in this campaign message from 1987 (from 1:03 on - could have been written for this election).

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

His tweet from 2016 was nasty. He actually seems to be unwell based on some of the stuff he says in recent years.

I don't know what particular tweet you're referring to, so can't comment, but unwell? Moreso than the US comedians who rip strips off Trump & Co. day-in, day-out?

ArmaniJeanss

CelticRambler wrote: »

Yeah - two years after the referendum! 'Tis always shaky ground, selectively quoting a comedian's words in the aftermath of an episode of national idiocy!

I would be prepared to revise my opinion if anyone can link to a (non-redacted) interview with him before the referendum took place.

Week before the referendum he discusses that he will be voting to leave.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/john-cleese-i-back-brexit-a3269976.html
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/22/eu-referendum-which-celebrities-are-backing-remain-and-who-are-s/

Cleese and Michael Caine were two that particularly saddened me, heroes of mine.

lawred2

Tell me how wrote: »

Interesting tweet here from someone who has previously been a pretty strong advocate for Brexit.

https://twitter.com/JohnCleese/status/1192999560148344832?s=19

John Cleese advocated for Brexit? Really? Bit surprised at that.

stefanovich

You all need to arrive at the truth, which is that Brexit is a good idea. Ireland would be well advised to align themselves with the US and UK and get out of Europe too.

Bishop of hope

lawred2 wrote: »

John Cleese advocated for Brexit? Really? Bit surprised at that.

All those years of Manuel must have turned him.
Manuel was from Barcelona you know?
Seriously though, celebrity opinion is just that, opinion.
Thing is I find it hard to swallow no matter which side they come out for in any political stance, most of them are probably "retained" for their opinion imo.

Bishop of hope

stefanovich wrote: »

You all need to arrive at the truth, which is that Brexit is a good idea. Ireland would be well advised to align themselves with the US and UK and get out of Europe too.

Even the UK haven't arrived at that decision yet😭

stefanovich

Bishop of hope wrote: »

Even the UK haven't arrived at that decision yet��

They have. It's just the moronic parliament that are doing everything they can to frustrate it.

This election will be glorious. A landslide Brexit Party / Conservative vote.

FreudianSlippers

stefanovich wrote: »

You all need to arrive at the truth, which is that Brexit is a good idea. Ireland would be well advised to align themselves with the US and UK and get out of Europe too.

Ireland couldn't make a trade deal with the US or UK until after they left the EU. Our 15y, 20y, 30y yield is exceptional at the moment. All ratings agencies have a negative outlook on UK futures and the UK 5y CDS is higher than Ireland.

That's all brexit. The UK can certainly survive that, Ireland can't. We'd be literally out of business before we hit the end of our Transition Period.

ancapailldorcha

stefanovich wrote: »

You all need to arrive at the truth, which is that Brexit is a good idea. Ireland would be well advised to align themselves with the US and UK and get out of Europe too.

No more snide comments please. If this is all you have to add then please do not post here.

Tuisceanch

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

Ireland couldn't make a trade deal with the US or UK until after they left the EU. Our 15y, 20y, 30y yield is exceptional at the moment. All ratings agencies have a negative outlook on UK futures and the UK 5y CDS is higher than Ireland.

That's all brexit. The UK can certainly survive that, Ireland can't. We'd be literally out of business before we hit the end of our Transition Period.

Would you mind explaining that a little bit more? On reflection I infer that if we were to leave the EU then our credit rating would drop making government bonds less attractive to investors. Are our rates really exceptional though?

FreudianSlippers

Tuisceanch wrote: »

Would you mind explaining that a little bit more? On reflection I infer that if we were to leave the EU then our credit rating would drop making government bonds less attractive to investors. Are our rates really exceptional though?

Yes, we need to sell bonds to keep the country going. Our bonds are exceptional for where we are at the moment (they're not as high as they were during the "boom" but I think in retrospect anyone with a shred of knowledge would say that was a bubble waiting to burst) and key is that our longer-term yields are net positive, so our yields increase over time (the UK has a very stagnant yield curve... analogous growth up to about 10y and then it's a flat-line out thereafter which isn't great tbh).

We rely heavily on our reputation following the bailout to invest buyers and keep our yields strong, an odd bullet to the head of leaving the EU would not be good IMO.

Tuisceanch

There is a mod warning in the OP about this. No more please.

quokula

Caroline Lucas is on Marr tomorrow. Will be interesting to see what she says when inevitably asked about the Green Party supporting the Lib Dems.

She wasn’t present at the launch, nor has she acknowledged the alliance at all on her Twitter feed which is otherwise pretty active. Given some of the scathing things she’s said about the Lib Dems recently I’m betting she’s not a personal fan of the decision.

Tuisceanch

Tuisceanch wrote: »

There is a mod warning in the OP about this. No more please.

Sorry. Did check but wasn't sure.

CelticRambler

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Week before the referendum he discusses that he will be voting to leave.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/john-cleese-i-back-brexit-a3269976.html
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/22/eu-referendum-which-celebrities-are-backing-remain-and-who-are-s/

As above: one-line quotes from a comedian, with no context. In the same (?) interview (?), he's also credited with saying:

John Cleese has suggested the only way to reform the European Union is to kill the European Commission president.

Should we consider that a literal truth (from someone who specifically makes fun of people who believe literal truths, e.g. Bible-belt Americans).

BonnieSituation

stefanovich wrote: »

You all need to arrive at the truth, which is that Brexit is a good idea. Ireland would be well advised to align themselves with the US and UK and get out of Europe too.

Why is it a good idea?

What benefits are their for aligning with the US and UK?

What demand is there for this?

Joe_ Public

quokula wrote: »

Caroline Lucas is on Marr tomorrow. Will be interesting to see what she says when inevitably asked about the Green Party supporting the Lib Dems.

She wasn’t present at the launch, nor has she acknowledged the alliance at all on her Twitter feed which is otherwise pretty active. Given some of the scathing things she’s said about the Lib Dems recently I’m betting she’s not a personal fan of the decision.

I'm guessing she'll be quizzed about this contribution from her former adviser:

https://twitter.com/matthew1butcher/status/1192341824054136832?s=20

stefanovich

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

Ireland couldn't make a trade deal with the US or UK until after they left the EU. Our 15y, 20y, 30y yield is exceptional at the moment. All ratings agencies have a negative outlook on UK futures and the UK 5y CDS is higher than Ireland.

That's all brexit. The UK can certainly survive that, Ireland can't. We'd be literally out of business before we hit the end of our Transition Period.

Investors are looking for short to medium term gains. Brexit puts a lot of them off. There is smart money flooding into the UK at the moment buying up undervalued businesses.

Once the UK is out and the economy started rocking then it'd be a wise for Ireland to consider its position.

FreudianSlippers

stefanovich wrote: »

Investors are looking for short to medium term gains. Brexit puts a lot of them off. There is smart money flooding into the UK at the moment buying up undervalued businesses.

Once the UK is out and the economy started rocking then it'd be a wise for Ireland to consider its position.

15y, 20y, 30y bonds are, by definition, not "short to medium term gains"

stefanovich

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

15y, 20y, 30y bonds are, by definition, not "short to medium term gains"

Reminder that the ratings agencies all had positive outlooks for mortgage backed securities in the US.

Blackrock are investing massively the in the UK at the moment I hear.

FreudianSlippers

stefanovich wrote: »

Reminder that the ratings agencies all had positive outlooks for mortgage backed securities in the US.

Blackrock are investing massively the in the UK at the moment I hear.

I addressed the 5y CDS already in my post for the UK. Not sure the relevance of Blackrock to bond yields or CDS though?

Strazdas

Strazdas wrote: »

No, I think she has a point. A privileged white man telling a Muslim woman she has Islamophobia wrong and is not taking a nuanced approach to it really grates on the ears : she says she has been working in race relations for 30 years.

I said I didn’t agree with what he said.
But her disregarding what he had to say on the basis of his race is just reductive and unhelpful.
She’s an apparent race relations advocate, would expect a more nuanced response than what was “You’re white so shut up” in effect.

Rjd2

Bannasidhe wrote: »

As opposed to:
Islamophobia. Extreme far right ideology. Intent on driving the economy off a cliff.

One is apparently toxic.
The other is not.
Strange times indeed.

Maybe both are really bad and both parties should be held accountable ?

Labour for the antisemetism surrounding it and Tories for the Islamphobia?

Letwin_Larry

Rjd2 wrote: »

Maybe both are really bad and both parties should be held accountable ?

Labour for the antisemetism surrounding it and Tories for the Islamphobia?

i dont know how you can describe the Tories of being Islamaphobic, when the current Home Secretary and the Chancellor (arguably the 2 most powerful cabinet positions) are both from ethnic minorities?
in fact this cabinet is the most ethnically diverse ever.

but this probably doesn't suit the islamaphobic narrative.

Danzy

Labour party down about 20% in the North of England and Midlands.

Capt'n Midnight

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

Ireland couldn't make a trade deal with the US or UK until after they left the EU. Our 15y, 20y, 30y yield is exceptional at the moment. All ratings agencies have a negative outlook on UK futures and the UK 5y CDS is higher than Ireland.

That's all brexit. The UK can certainly survive that, Ireland can't. We'd be literally out of business before we hit the end of our Transition Period.

UK cost of borrowing may go up. Which will increase the costs of the spending spree that the main parties are using to buy the electorate.

UK's credit rating could be downgraded, says Moody's

says Brexit has caused "paralysis in policy-making".

It has changed the outlook on the UK's current rating - which is a marker of how likely it is to pay back its debts - from "stable" to "negative".

Danzy

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/11/08/regional-voting-intentions-show-both-main-parties-

YouGov polling data, brutal Labour performance.

Capt'n Midnight

stefanovich wrote: »

A booming economy will cause the pound to rise and will keep inflation low. It is a consequence of success.

Yeah, about that,

In dollars or euros UK labour and local raw material costs have fallen.

The huge elephant in the room is that the exports of goods and services didn't increase when sterling dropped.

Anyone who thinks Brexit will be good needs to explain this.


But I can pretty much guarantee that if sterling goes up then exports will fall.

Sam Russell

stefanovich wrote: »

A booming economy will cause the pound to rise and will keep inflation low. It is a consequence of success.

Four years ago, GBP was 75p against the Euro. After a referendum campaign and three years of negotiating a WA, and failing to agree one, the UK are still in the exit lounge of the EU waiting for their sleigh pulled by eight white unicorns to take them to sunny uplands.

In the meantime, the GBP has fallen to today's rate of 86.5p, having tested over 94p in Aug this year.

It does look like the booming economy and low inflation is just a dream for when those unicorns transport the UK to those sunlit uplands. In the meantime success will only be a dream.