Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

Danzy

schmittel wrote: »

If Tories get a majority we could be looking at a hard brexit on somewhere 40% of the national vote. Would that be democratically suspect as well?

Is there any scenario where a hard Brexit will get more than a handful of votes if it is voted on in a meaningful motion, not the negotiating tactics of the last few votes.

Hard at this stage to even name a Tory MP who would be guaranteed to back No Deal.

liamtech

Danzy wrote: »

Is there any scenario where a hard Brexit will get more than a handful of votes if it is voted on in a meaningful motion, not the negotiating tactics of the last few votes.

Hard at this stage to even name a Tory MP who would be guaranteed to back No Deal.

in my mind this is a hard brexit - granted it doesnt put a border around the 6 counties, but it does take the UK out of the SM/CU

Rjd2

VinLieger wrote: »

Will traditional Conservative "no matter what" voters switch to the BP or will they just not show up on the day?

Good question. The two main parties like the 2 big beasts here have plenty of voters who vote for whoever out of habit more than anything, they don't overthink strategy like us geeks online.

The Tories don't want to be seen to be giving the brexit party anything, but not running someone against Richard Tice would be a hard story to sweep under the carpet.

Its why this election so hard to call,already seen numerous different takes on what Farage's concession earlier meant regrading the election and ultimately nearly all of them will be wrong..just don't know which.:P

Professor Moriarty

Just a straw in the wind. Last night, the Tories were 4/5 to get a majority. They are now at 1/2.

BonnieSituation

hotmail.com wrote: »

The referendum of 2016 decided the matter.

I thought the 1975 referendum decided the matter though?

Which is it?

hotmail.com

BonnieSituation wrote: »

I thought the 1975 referendum decided the matter though?

Which is it?

The most recent one I would have guessed.

The 8th Amendment was repealed in 2018 thankfully on the same basis - overturning a previous referendum a generation later.

BonnieSituation

hotmail.com wrote: »

The most recent one I would have guessed.

The 8th Amendment was repealed in 2018 thankfully on the same basis - overturning a previous referendum a generation later.

So you're saying it's okay to have another referendum on the matter because people may have changed their mind?

Podge_irl

Danzy wrote: »

Is there any scenario where a hard Brexit will get more than a handful of votes if it is voted on in a meaningful motion, not the negotiating tactics of the last few votes.

Hard at this stage to even name a Tory MP who would be guaranteed to back No Deal.

One of the best tricks to have been pulled by Brexiteers is re-framing a Hard Brexit to mean a No-Deal Brexit when originally (and more accurately) it referred to what we essentially have in Johnson's deal. A No-Deal Brexit was not even in the picture.

liamtech

hotmail.com wrote: »

The most recent one I would have guessed.

The 8th Amendment was repealed in 2018 thankfully on the same basis - overturning a previous referendum a generation later.

I assume then that this election in the UK will decide the matter of who leads the country from now on then?

Honestly suggesting a 2nd ref is undemocratic is ludicrous. You are ignoring the fact that there was nothing in the ref about the single market or the customs union.. the british electorate voted for 'something' with no consensus of what that 'something' was

Also MANY in the Leave alliance argued that they would stay in the Single Market customs union.. including Farage

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0xGt3QmRSZY

In all honesty there is a separate thread about this too btw

hotmail.com

BonnieSituation wrote: »

So you're saying it's okay to have another referendum on the matter because people may have changed their mind?

Well yes of course. A generation later.

The best people in Ireland can hope for is a soft Brexit and for Britain to re enter the EU at a future point in 20 or 30 years.

hotmail.com

liamtech wrote: »

I assume then that this election in the UK will decide the matter of who leads the country from now on then?

Honestly suggesting a 2nd ref is undemocratic is ludicrous. You are ignoring the fact that there was nothing in the ref about the single market or the customs union.. the british electorate voted for 'something' with no consensus of what that 'something' was

Also MANY in the Leave alliance argued that they would stay in the Single Market customs union.. including Farage

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0xGt3QmRSZY

In all honesty there is a separate thread about this too btw

I didn't suggest another referendum was undemocratic.

It's very true that many in Britain didn't understand the detail of the EU but the anti EU feeling in Britain is very evident.

Tea Shock

hotmail.com wrote: »

Well yes of course. A generation later.

16 years between our last 2 abortion referendums is a fairly loose definition of a generation later!

theological

Nody wrote: »

Care to outline exactly what these increased powers you feel that will come are?

The answer to this question is obvious. Any area the EU takes "exclusive competence" or "shared competence" over (using EU treaty language).

For example:

• Powers over trade policy (customs, tariffs, quotas).
• Powers over fishing policy.
• Powers over agriculture policy.
• Powers over immigration.
• Powers over commercial standards.
• Powers over financial services.

There's more too.

To claim that leaving the European Union will not give the UK increased sovereignty in decision making in these areas and more is untruthful.

These are significant areas of power that Westminster will be entirely responsible for. MPs will be responsible for these matters and the public can and will hold them to account for it. They will no longer be able to blame Brussels for it.

I genuinely think that the increased participation in democracy in the UK during the Brexit referendum and afterwards is a hugely positive force that needs to be maintained.

Tell me how

hotmail.com wrote: »

I didn't suggest another referendum was undemocratic.

It's very true that many in Britain didn't understand the detail of the EU but the anti EU feeling in Britain is very evident.

There's an anti-EU feeling in Ireland as well. Just that it's held by a very small proportion of the people.

you can't argue but that the UK populace likely voted to leave as a protest vote against the EU more so than wanting to lose everything they are in line to lose, as they didn't know about this.
If they had known, they'd likely have realised their hatred for the EU wasn't all that strong.

It would be like someone hating working and thinking they could leave and still get paid. They (as is the case with many people) realise that they'd rather stay in their job and enjoy the benefits of it.

hotmail.com

Tea Shock wrote: »

16 years between our last 2 abortion referendums is a fairly loose definition of a generation later!

Well the 2002 referendum wasn't about removing or overturning the 1983 one. So the real gap is 35 years.

hotmail.com

Tell me how wrote: »

There's an anti-EU feeling in Ireland as well. Just that it's held by a very small proportion of the people.

you can't argue but that the UK populace likely voted to leave as a protest vote against the EU more so than wanting to lose everything they are in line to lose, as they didn't know about this.
If they had known, they'd likely have realised their hatred for the EU wasn't all that strong.

It would be like someone hating working and thinking they could leave and still get paid. They (as is the case with many people) realise that they'd rather stay in their job and enjoy the benefits of it.

If that was the case, the support for Brexit would have dropped dramatically which it hasn't.

Irish people have to accept and move on from this. The Irish government have accepted that Britain is leaving and I think that's correct.

WomanSkirtFan8

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Just a straw in the wind. Last night, the Tories were 4/5 to get a majority. They are now at 1/2.

not suprising really considering how bad a start they've had to start with. If it continues like this, they'll seriously struggle to get a majority never mind win the election. :cool:

Professor Moriarty

WomanSkirtFan8 wrote: »

not suprising really considering how bad a start they've had to start with. If it continues like this, they'll seriously struggle to get a majority never mind win the election. :cool:

I think you read it too quickly. The bookies are saying they're much more likely to get an overall majority after Farage spoke today. Last night you had to bet 100 to win 80. Today you bet 100 to win 50. So, just right now, the bookies reckon the Tories are quite likely to get their majority.

20silkcut

schmittel wrote: »

Yes I'd agree it follows that if you think LDs revoking in that scenario is suspect, then clearly Tory's hard Brexiting would also be suspect.

Then to my mind it simply follows that if Labour get a majority on somewhere shy of 40% then a second referendum would be suspect too.

i.e if you seriously question one party, any party, implementing a policy on the back of a successful election campaign, then you must question all of them.

And it that scenario it simply follows that one cannot really accept the outcome of any election, leading to the abandonment of the concept of loser's consent.

And what then?

Blame the Russians for the deadlock I suppose!

As someone suggested on here around the time of the extension request perhaps the only outcome of Brexit is endless fudging with the British prime minister requesting extensions periodically to infinity such that it becomes an archaic ceremony far into the future where people forget what it’s all about similar to the black rod pageantry we see today.
Everyone is satisfied, Britain is still endeavouring to leave the EU while very much remaining a part of the EU. Everyone is placated.
That is the current situation and no one is out on the streets over it.

Joe_ Public

Probably nothing i'd be bothered betting on, but i'm quite staggered to see on the exchange site that the tories are ODDS ON to get 340 or more seats. Its just gut feelings but i struggle to see them getting a majority, let alone one with as much daylight as that. 325-330 would seem outer limits of possibility to me. As i said, just gut feeling.

Tell me how

hotmail.com wrote: »

If that was the case, the support for Brexit would have dropped dramatically which it hasn't.

Irish people have to accept and move on from this. The Irish government have accepted that Britain is leaving and I think that's correct.

Well, I think you can't really say that because firstly, there hasn't been an objective assessment of the support for Brexit since the first referendum. And secondly, a dislike of Brexit is still overridden by some who do feel there was a vote, it should be honoured. Thirdly, many in the UK are consumed by party politics in relation to the Brexit question. They have rowed in behind their party of choices position irrespective of their personal beliefs. We've seen that discussed in depth in the 'party before country' conversation

I hold the same position as the Irish government, I expect them to leave, wish that they weren't but respect that they are and now want to make it as pain free as possible for Irish people and businesses.

Joe_ Public

Here is one hard brexiteer i think could be toast. I've seen quite a bit of Faiza Sheheen on the main news channels last year, she's bright and very articulate and seems popular in her native constituency of Chingford. The Greens stepping aside could be worth 5-6% for her. I seriously believe IDS is for the shepherds crook here.

https://twitter.com/faizashaheen/status/1193657414123479040

20silkcut

theological wrote: »

The answer this question is obvious. Any area the EU takes "exclusive competence" or "shared competence" over (using EU treaty language).

For example:

• Powers over trade policy (customs, tariffs, quotas).
• Powers over fishing policy.
• Powers over agriculture policy.
• Powers over immigration.
• Powers over commercial standards.
• Powers over financial services.

There's more too.

To claim that leaving the European Union will not give the UK increased sovereignty in decision making in these areas and more is untruthful.

These are significant areas of power that Westminster will be entirely responsible for. MPs will be responsible for these matters and the public can and will hold them to account for it. They will no longer be able to blame Brussels for it.

I genuinely think that the increased participation in democracy in the UK during the Brexit referendum and afterwards is a hugely positive force that needs to be maintained.

All those powers will be on the table in any future trade talks with trading blocs that are much more powerful than the UK.
They will be gone again at the stroke of pen.
Britain is not powerful enough to have such sovereignty.
60 million people is less than 450 million or 300 million or 1.3 billion.

theological

20silkcut wrote: »

All those powers will be on the table in any future trade talks with trading blocs that are much more powerful than the UK.
They will be gone again at the stroke of pen.
Britain is not powerful enough to have such sovereignty.
60 million people is less than 450 million or 300 million or 1.3 billion.

Many other smaller countries have got beneficial trading relationships with large countries.

The idea that the UK is going to fail where countries like Canada and Australia have succeeded is silly.

There seems to be this bizarre notion that somehow the UK is beholden to the EU for economic success.

The reality is more straight forward, both need each other, but the UK will be able to form a relationship both with it and other countries on good terms.

Enzokk

With the Tories and Brexit Party becoming one basically it should be a wake up call for Labour and the Lib Dems. This is such a critical election that if the next couple of weeks doesn't indicate a change in the polls they should consider an alliance.

But this election will be tough to win as it seems even the BBC is up to dirty tricks, finding footage from 3 years ago to cover up a mistake Johnson did at the Cenotaph yesterday. This is a crooked and broken democracy that is hurtling towards that cliff, with the state broadcaster favouring the ruling party and the way reports and investigations have been shelved.

https://twitter.com/BBCBreakfast/status/1193840620701437957?s=20

https://twitter.com/patrickwintour/status/1193921357177745408?s=20

https://twitter.com/jason_kint/status/1192653576650264577?s=20

hometruths

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Here is one hard brexiteer i think could be toast. I've seen quite a bit of Faiza Sheheen on the main news channels last year, she's bright and very articulate and seems popular in her native constituency of Chingford. The Greens stepping aside could be worth 5-6% for her. I seriously believe IDS is for the shepherds crook here.

https://twitter.com/faizashaheen/status/1193657414123479040

That would be sweet. Is it too much to hope for that this is the start of an informal alliance...

It would be fabulous to see the oppo parties do a backroom deal to target likes of IDS, Raab, Rees Mogg, Patel, Baker, Cash, Bridgen, Francois etc.

If you could take half a dozen Tory MP head cases out of parliament you could change the dynamic significantly.

Edit to add:
Just looked at their seats, sadly it looks like just Raab and Baker would be vulnerable from the above list. Still, would be nice to see Raab lose his seat and give him more time for anger management therapy.

Tell me how

theological wrote: »

Many other smaller countries have got beneficial trading relationships with large countries.

The idea that the UK is going to fail where countries like Canada and Australia have succeeded is silly.

There seems to be this bizarre notion that somehow the UK is beholden to the EU for economic success.

The reality is more straight forward, both need each other, but the UK will be able to form a relationship both with it and other countries on good terms.

It will not be able to form a better deal with the EU than that which it already has, it will most likely not be able to sign better deals with other countries than the deals which the EU has with them and which the UK could enjoy as a member of the EU.

It will be able to say, 'we are a completely sovereign nation, Yea for us' but most countries simply won't care.

Danzy

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I think you read it too quickly. The bookies are saying they're much more likely to get an overall majority after Farage spoke today. Last night you had to bet 100 to win 80. Today you bet 100 to win 50. So, just right now, the bookies reckon the Tories are quite likely to get their majority.

Looking at the Labour collapse, in the YouGov poll, across its heartlands, then you'd have to expect it.

The big story may not be the Tories returning but Labour being wiped out.

Looking at the stories of the last few days there seems to be a concerted effort by many in Labour to do just that, their reasoning differs though.

WomanSkirtFan8

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I think you read it too quickly. The bookies are saying they're much more likely to get an overall majority after Farage spoke today. Last night you had to bet 100 to win 80. Today you bet 100 to win 50. So, just right now, the bookies reckon the Tories are quite likely to get their majority.

oh right. My mistake:cool:

BonnieSituation

theological wrote: »

Many other smaller countries have got beneficial trading relationships with large countries.

The idea that the UK is going to fail where countries like Canada and Australia have succeeded is silly.

There seems to be this bizarre notion that somehow the UK is beholden to the EU for economic success.

The reality is more straight forward, both need each other, but the UK will be able to form a relationship both with it and other countries on good terms.

Where are the UK going to find the vast natural resources that the Canucks and the Aussies have?

Perhaps that has something to do with their "favourable" deals.