Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

CelticRambler

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

So between 10 million wasted on coins, 100 million wasted on brexit ads there might be enough to put a slogan on side of a bus and drive it around.
Oh and the GBP7 billion in assets with EIB being given up is interesting, thats one figure we have not seen before in all the brexit accounting

Don't forget the £50m paid for those phantom ferry services, and the £33m compensation paid to Eurotunnel for awarding the phantom ferry contracts without due process.

Imreoir2

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I predict Tories to take clear majority of seats needed to pass legislation.

WA to go through early January.

I wonder what will happen to the DUP? Can see them losing some seats.

Perhaps, but it will not be plain sailing for the Tories, they will have a lot of ground to make up from lost MPs in Scotland. Not to mention that the Lib Dems will be taking some seats from them in England.

It is not impossible for them to make up enough ground against Labour but the only test we have had in recent times suggest that the Tories are not as electable as they like to think. They lost their majority in the last election ony a couple of years ago, despite all predictions of a stomping majority, and by-elections since have not been kind to them.

ArmaniJeanss

Tories to have their poll-lead slowly whittled away in another terrible campaign.
Labour to be biggest party but fall shy of an overall majority.

Professor Moriarty

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Perhaps, but it will not be plain sailing for the Tories, they will have a lot of ground to make up from lost MPs in Scotland. Not to mention that the Lib Dems will be taking some seats from them in England.

It is not impossible for them to make up enough ground against Labour but the only test we have had in recent times suggest that the Tories are not as electable as they like to think. They lost their majority in the last election ony a couple of years ago, despite all predictions of a stomping majority, and by-elections since have not been kind to them.

The Brexit Party have yet to show their hand.

Tea Shock

Corbyn on BBC earlier was like a kid on Christmas morning, so excited and optimistic - never seen him happier!

Not sure where his optimism is coming from and I hope it works out for him but all I can see in my minds eye on count night is a very glum Jeremy!

FrancieBrady

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The Brexit Party have yet to show their hand.

If the Tories don't deal with them the election could go any which way. God knows what will emerge in a campaign.

Professor Moriarty

FrancieBrady wrote: »

If the Tories don't deal with them the election could go any which way. God knows what will emerge in a campaign.

Anything could come out. One possible profitable avenue might be a personal assault on Johnson's character. No doubt there's plenty of ammunition.

josip

Tea Shock wrote: »

Corbyn on BBC earlier was like a kid on Christmas morning, so excited and optimistic - never seen him happier!

Not sure where his optimism is coming from and I hope it works out for him but all I can see in my minds eye on count night is a very glum Jeremy!

For all his other faults Corbyn is a good campaigner and is most comfortable out on the streets with the electorate.
Contrast that with Johnson who is not comfortable with the general public, only with selected groups in carefully orchestrated events.
Cummings hid Johnson in a bunker during the Conservative leadership contest.

Tea Shock

FrancieBrady wrote: »

God knows what will emerge in a campaign.

About 5 little Boris'/Borisette's I bet!

Russman

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The Brexit Party have yet to show their hand.

I wonder will they be a relevant factor at all tbh. It’s all very well to vote for them in the EU elections when most Brits don’t give a fig one way or the other about the European Parliament, but another thing entirely to consider putting them into the HoC where they could have an actually impact on people’s lives.
I suppose that assume the electorate are at least halfway thinking, and in these times, sense and rationality have most definitely left the building !

Joe_ Public

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The Brexit Party have yet to show their hand.

I watched all of skys coverage last night and it wasnt until near the end, some 3 or so hours in, that the name of Farage entered the discussion which amounted to pretty much the pro-Johnson guy on the panel telling us how much they were going to damage labour. The wound they will potentially inflict on the tories is so much more greater imo.

Professor Moriarty

Joe_ Public wrote: »

I watched all of skys coverage last night and it wasnt until near the end, some 3 or so hours in, that the name of Farage entered the discussion which amounted to pretty much the pro-Johnson guy on the panel telling us how much they were going to damage labour. The wound they will potentially inflict on the tories is so much more greater imo.

It depends. They really can be kingmakers. If they do a pact with the Tories, then Johnson should get a majority. If they don't and they target all seats, they could seriously damage the Tories. Johnson's problem will be how to bring the Brexit Party on board without alienating moderate Tory MPs.

Professor Moriarty

Russman wrote: »

I wonder will they be a relevant factor at all tbh. It’s all very well to vote for them in the EU elections when most Brits don’t give a fig one way or the other about the European Parliament, but another thing entirely to consider putting them into the HoC where they could have an actually impact on people’s lives.
I suppose that assume the electorate are at least halfway thinking, and in these times, sense and rationality have most definitely left the building !

I'd be surprised if they get any seats.

Joe_ Public

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It depends. They really can be kingmakers. If they do a pact with the Tories, then Johnson should get a majority. If they don't and they target all seats, they could seriously damage the Tories. Johnson's problem will be how to bring the Brexit Party on board without alienating moderate Tory MPs.

Yes, for sure, key word i used was potentially. Alliances - or lack of them - are going to play a critical role on both sides i'd say. Your last sentence sums up johnsons dilemma rather perfectly, theres a bit of damned either way about it imo.

Tea Shock

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It depends. They really can be kingmakers. If they do a pact with the Tories, then Johnson should get a majority. If they don't and they target all seats, they could seriously damage the Tories. Johnson's problem will be how to bring the Brexit Party on board without alienating moderate Tory MPs.

There's not a chance there will be a BP/Tory pact

Farage set it up that way right from the very start, setting conditions he knew Johnson wouldn't meet.

After the election is over might be a different matter though!

robinph

liamtech wrote: »

Ballot 1

Do you still wish to Leave the EU
Yes []
No []

Ballot 2

If Ballot One passes for leave, would you prefer BoJo's Deal of october 2019, or a clean Break brexit

Bojos Deal []
No Deal Clean Break []

Why does leave still get to combine all their versions of unicorns into one for the first ballot?

Worst case for remain is it would likely be 49% remain, 25% deal, 26% no deal. I'm 100% remain, but why should I give ballot 2 the legitimacy of putting my mark on it? The deal is still a fupping stupid idea even if there are 51% of the population voting for unicorns still.

Professor Moriarty

Tea Shock wrote: »

There's not a chance there will be a BP/Tory pact

Farage set it up that way right from the very start, setting conditions he knew Johnson wouldn't meet.

After the election is over might be a different matter though!

I can't see how that will work. The Brexit Party has a chance of winning maybe two seats at most.

Enzokk

Tea Shock wrote: »

Corbyn on BBC earlier was like a kid on Christmas morning, so excited and optimistic - never seen him happier!

Not sure where his optimism is coming from and I hope it works out for him but all I can see in my minds eye on count night is a very glum Jeremy!

He is running against a party that is responsible for the last 9 years of austerity and cuts to the police, fire and health budgets. There will also be impartiality restrictions on reporting so his message will come across better and they will have a ground campaign to hammer home their message of "what has the Tories done for you the last 9 years" on people's doors.

I fear though that even with that people will have been manipulated into thinking he is the devil incarnate and he will ruin the country. But I also see Scotland losing all of their Conservative MPs and I see the Tories losing seats to the Lib Dems. This could mean Labour only really have to stay at the same seat count to have the biggest seats in parliament without needing to pick up seats either.

That is before we factor in what Farage will do this election with his betrayal talk and "clean Brexit" which will muddy the water even more for everyone bar the Lib Dems basically.

So I don't know what will happen but if the Tories are returned with a majority after 9 years of austerity and Brexit, then the people of the UK deserve the pain coming to them. This will be their third chance as a country to send the message that they aren't what we think they are, a bigoted insular nation thinking they are better than everyone else. They should take this opportunity to show the world they are not the worst we see on social media.

josip

BP and Tories will make a pact before the election.
BP will win 0/1 seats in a freely fought election but will cost the Tories many more.
What kind of post election pact can you do with 1 seat?


Both Farage and Johnson know that they have to do a deal beforehand.
It's the Cummings-Farage dislike that mamkes that difficult.

Enzokk

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It depends. They really can be kingmakers. If they do a pact with the Tories, then Johnson should get a majority. If they don't and they target all seats, they could seriously damage the Tories. Johnson's problem will be how to bring the Brexit Party on board without alienating moderate Tory MPs.

I don't see how Farage turns away from a no-deal Brexit and I don't see how Johnson backs away from his deal. I don't see an alliance and those that think Farage will only influence Labour seats will be mistaken. It depends how much Farage can amplify his message against Johnson as the election will be about his deal when it comes to Brexit.

Joe_ Public

I still believe corbyn can do better than many think, i dont accept that he's quite as unpopular as msm would have you believe. But he's going to have to sort that brexit fog out, make it absolutely clear that labour is the party of a 2nd referendum. With Swinson talking about winning election and revoke, that is something that could be achieved. Huge challenge for him admittedly.

Tea Shock

josip wrote: »

BP and Tories will make a pact before the election.
BP will win 0/1 seats in a freely fought election but will cost the Tories many more.
What kind of post election pact can you do with 1 seat?


Both Farage and Johnson know that they have to do a deal beforehand.
It's the Cummings-Farage dislike that mamkes that difficult.

If they can only win 0/1 seats, the only pact that makes any sense if for the BP to withdraw from pretty much every constituency! As if they'd do that!

There's not a chance they believe their return will be that low!

liamtech

robinph wrote: »

Why does leave still get to combine all their versions of unicorns into one for the first ballot?

Worst case for remain is it would likely be 49% remain, 25% deal, 26% no deal. I'm 100% remain, but why should I give ballot 2 the legitimacy of putting my mark on it? The deal is still a fupping stupid idea even if there are 51% of the population voting for unicorns still.

Because any other way would purposefully disenfranchise the leave vote. It would be no better than claiming the FPTP Election is going to be the peoples vote on brexit

If you have a 3 option referendum then remain wins by default even if it loses the popular vote

Remain 35%
Leave with Bojos Deal 32.5%
Leave with No Deal 32.5%

Remain Wins

Those figures are extremely hypothetical and it wouldnt happen to that extreme, but splitting the leave vote in a second ref would do nothing to heal the rift

Having two questions, with the second (deal or no deal) only becoming relevant if the first (Brexit or No Brexit) passes for Leave

Which it wont - polls suggest remain would win - 2 questions makes sense

EDIT - if you dont wanna mark the second then dont - many wouldnt in any case - but it settles the issue - in the unlikely event of remain losing, then we Settle the DEAL OR NO DEAL argument for good - and destroy the threat

Professor Moriarty

Enzokk wrote: »

I don't see how Farage turns away from a no-deal Brexit and I don't see how Johnson backs away from his deal. I don't see an alliance and those that think Farage will only influence Labour seats will be mistaken. It depends how much Farage can amplify his message against Johnson as the election will be about his deal when it comes to Brexit.

Farage has power. His problem is that he has to figure out how to use it. Assuming the primary goal is a 'Clean Break' (aka crash out), he has to decide if Johnson is the best bet going forward. Or is he better off bringing the Tories crashing down in the hope that they will split along Hard/Soft Brexit lines and then coalescing with the Hard Brexiteers.

Enzokk

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Farage has power. His problem is that he has to figure out how to use it. Assuming the primary goal is a 'Clean Break' (aka crash out), he has to decide if Johnson is the best bet going forward. Or is he better off bringing the Tories crashing down in the hope that they will split along Hard/Soft Brexit lines and then coalescing with the Hard Brexiteers.

It is interesting on what Farage will do. Is he an ideologue that wants to pursue Brexit at any cost and thus will go for what he knows he can get? Or is he a just another charlatan who knows where his bread is buttered and getting on talk shows and his MEP pension is what is important to him? In the latter case he can sink the Tories, in the former he makes Brexit happen, although what Brexit is to be determined and it could cost him the ideal Brexit in his eyes.

robinph

liamtech wrote: »

Because any other way would purposefully disenfranchise the leave vote. It would be no better than claiming the FPTP Election is going to be the peoples vote on brexit

If you have a 3 option referendum then remain wins by default even if it loses the popular vote

Remain 35%
Leave with Bojos Deal 32.5%
Leave with No Deal 32.5%

Remain Wins

Those figures are extremely hypothetical and it wouldnt happen to that extreme, but splitting the leave vote in a second ref would do nothing to heal the rift

Having two questions, with the second (deal or no deal) only becoming relevant if the first (Brexit or No Brexit) passes for Leave

Which it wont - polls suggest remain would win - 2 questions makes sense

EDIT - if you dont wanna mark the second then dont - many wouldnt in any case - but it settles the issue - in the unlikely event of remain losing, then we Settle the DEAL OR NO DEAL argument for good - and destroy the threat

If Leave still need to figure out what their proposal is then you could possibly have it as the first ballot and they get to pick the option they want to put up against Remain.

The default option is do nothing and remain in the EU*. Leave has to present their option and put it up against that, they shouldn't get to have a multiple choice of options that nobody knows what it is in advance going up against Remain.



* I know that legally they actually made no deal the default if nothing happens. But in a choice between "do something" or "no change" (which is what the initial referendum was) there shouldn't be a third choice of "blow your head off" added as an option later on.

Professor Moriarty

Enzokk wrote: »

It is interesting on what Farage will do. Is he an ideologue that wants to pursue Brexit at any cost and thus will go for what he knows he can get? Or is he a just another charlatan who knows where his bread is buttered and getting on talk shows and his MEP pension is what is important to him? In the latter case he can sink the Tories, in the former he makes Brexit happen, although what Brexit is to be determined and it could cost him the ideal Brexit in his eyes.

I don't think he's a charlatan and I don't think he's in it for the money. I think he's an ideologue but he's a one-trick pony. Brexit is all he can talk about as he and his party have no other credible policies. Once Brexit is done he'll get a job with The Telegraph and he'll go on the after-dinner circuit. So I think he'll do whatever it takes to get as hard a Brexit as possible.

Kermit.de.frog

https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1189153003418374144

No problem getting a clear majority of seats for the tories on this evidence.

The Brexit Party performance will be interesting. They will essentially be arguing against the current deal. If the tories did not have a deal that might have worked but they do have a deal the EU will sign up to so hard to see the Brexit Party making huge advances if their premise is more chaos.

ambro25

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1189153003418374144

No problem getting a clear majority of seats for the tories on this evidence.

The Brexit Party performance will be interesting. They will essentially be arguing against the current deal. If the tories did not have a deal that might have worked but they do have a deal the EU will sign up to so hard to see the Brexit Party making huge advances if their premise is more chaos.

No problem, you say?

I see that graph in your link, I think of the circumstances...and then I'm strangely reminded of this poll of polls 2 years ago:

Professor Moriarty

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1189153003418374144

No problem getting a clear majority of seats for the tories on this evidence.

The Brexit Party performance will be interesting. They will essentially be arguing against the current deal. If the tories did not have a deal that might have worked but they do have a deal the EU will sign up to so hard to see the Brexit Party making huge advances if their premise is more chaos.

Bookies have about 10/11 that the Tories get a majority. So they reckon, as things stand today, they have roughly a 50% chance.