Dublin Marathon moves to lottery entries!

healy1835

TaurenDruid wrote: »

I see the Race Director wants help with a survey about volunteering at various races, parkrun, and DCM.

Now, several people have been looking for my help with surveys lately. So even though I had capacity to complete all of the surveys, no problem, I instead entered Jim's name into a lottery system.  No special provision to allow entry for previous volunteers was made.  Jim wasn't successful.

Just waiting for Jim to go online and whinge about it now...

PhilOssophy

Is the marathon the next thing to likely come a cropper?

Swashbuckler

PhilOssophy wrote:

Is the marathon the next thing to likely come a cropper?

Almost definitely in my opinion. Can't see any large scale events until everyone is vaccinated.

Guill

If there's any race before a vaccine is found, tested and administered to the majority of the population I'd be very surprised.

I'm ruling out any races in 2020.

rovers_runner

It looks more and more likely that it will be cancelled as time passes, although you'd have to think sporting events and concerts etc will go the same way.

All an equal draw on resources from guards/hse, planning and man hours.
All would be impossible to contract trace unless using a blanket action if there was an outbreak among even a few attendees. Imagine telling 40000 gaa attendance to self isolate for a fortnight in August due to a couple of infections the days after a match..

sgal

PhilOssophy wrote: »

Is the marathon the next thing to likely come a cropper?

Thanks for asking this question cause I've been wondering if myself. Vaccine could be quite awhile off yet, potential treatments might actually be closer. Even if there is a vaccine will everyone take a vaccine, how could you enforce it for any aspect of social events not just sporting ones? Before covid19 there was a growing number of people who were against them and they're long established ones. I'd love to think I'd know one way or another before having to commit training wise etc. At the same time it's a long way down the priority list in the whole scheme of things.

Butterbeans

sgal wrote: »

Thanks for asking this question cause I've been wondering if myself. Vaccine could be quite awhile off yet, potential treatments might actually be closer. Even if there is a vaccine will everyone take a vaccine, how could you enforce it for any aspect of social events not just sporting ones? Before covid19 there was a growing number of people who were against them and they're long established ones. I'd love to think I'd know one way or another before having to commit training wise etc. At the same time it's a long way down the priority list in the whole scheme of things.

You won't be any worse off for having started the training, and I'd imagine if (more likely when) it's cancelled it will be well in advance so you won't be too far into whatever plan you're following. It won't be as if you should/could have focused your training elsewhere if you had known sooner as there'll be no other races on either.

average_runner

sgal wrote: »

Thanks for asking this question cause I've been wondering if myself. Vaccine could be quite awhile off yet, potential treatments might actually be closer. Even if there is a vaccine will everyone take a vaccine, how could you enforce it for any aspect of social events not just sporting ones? Before covid19 there was a growing number of people who were against them and they're long established ones. I'd love to think I'd know one way or another before having to commit training wise etc. At the same time it's a long way down the priority list in the whole scheme of things.

Start the aerobic base for the training, it will stand to you

robinph

Swashbuckler wrote: »

Almost definitely in my opinion. Can't see any large scale events until everyone is vaccinated.

This could be the point at which having a few pre-exisitng conditions gets me ahead of the game. I'd anticipate that once the vaccine is available it's going to be another couple of years before you can claim everyone (70% of the global population?) is vaccinated and those of us in the higher risk categories are going to be top of the list to get the vaccine.

If it ends up being a yearly thing that they have to come up with a variation of each time, or a booster each year then that drags out the majority of the population getting a vaccine even longer.

It might end up being those of us in at risk groups are the only ones to get a vaccine, and the rest of the population just have to take their chances, like with the yearly flu.

average_runner

robinph wrote: »

This could be the point at which having a few pre-exisitng conditions gets me ahead of the game. I'd anticipate that once the vaccine is available it's going to be another couple of years before you can claim everyone (70% of the global population?) is vaccinated and those of us in the higher risk categories are going to be top of the list to get the vaccine.

If it ends up being a yearly thing that they have to come up with a variation of each time, or a booster each year then that drags out the majority of the population getting a vaccine even longer.

It might end up being those of us in at risk groups are the only ones to get a vaccine, and the rest of the population just have to take their chances, like with the yearly flu.

They update the flu vaccine every year, analysing mutations etc. So it can be done

Supercell

There is some hope of a vaccine around March next year from reading various articles online, maybe a postponement to spring might be how it plays out? I really don't see any way it can go ahead before there is a vaccine.
Maybe you will need to show proof of getting it too, to start the race. I recall when the swine flu vaccine came out we all got vaccination cards.

RentDayBlues

Any thoughts on what happens if this years is cancelled - will it be a new application process or will they offer places to those who already secured them?

I know it’s all just guess work. I’ve got a place but have been really struggling with torn ligaments in my hip

average_runner

Supercell wrote: »

There is some hope of a vaccine around March next year from reading various articles online, maybe a postponement to spring might be how it plays out? I really don't see any way it can go ahead before there is a vaccine.
Maybe you will need to show proof of getting it too, to start the race. I recall when the swine flu vaccine came out we all got vaccination cards.

There is no proof you are immune to it. Never had the swine flu vaccination

Casey78

RentDayBlues wrote: »

Any thoughts on what happens if this years is cancelled - will it be a new application process or will they offer places to those who already secured them?

I know it’s all just guess work. I’ve got a place but have been really struggling with torn ligaments in my hip

It would have to be whoever has a place for this year would also have that place for next year if they want it. Couldn't have it any other way imo.

PhilOssophy

I'd say you will be given 2 options
1. Hold your place for 2021, place guaranteed
2. Refund and no guarantee of place.

Ceepo

PhilOssophy wrote: »

Is the marathon the next thing to likely come a cropper?

If this is anything yo go by then there absolutely no hope of DCM going ahead this year

https://www.rte.ie/sport/gaa/2020/0419/1132436-harris-its-unlikely-well-see-mass-gatherings-in-2020/

I'm still holding out hope that some small local races might go ahead in the autumn.
Races that would normally have less than 150/200 taking part, or local county cross country races
More hopeful that confident I'm afraid

robinph

Would be good if small events could be allowed to happen.

I'm not expecting London to go ahead in October, but I think that before that gets called off they will have announced the GFA times for 2021 and there will be very limited options for anyone to run a time. I've got my eye on a potential small event I've used before to run the qualification, but it's in the end of June. Need to find a similar one for in October incase the dates match up and a small 150 sized event is allowed to go ahead.

I think the likes of parkrun have shot themselves in the foot when it comes to being able to restart as they declared that they will only open a whole country at a time. Means that they can't open a small out of the way event without also opening a big 1000+ sized event and it's going to be far longer until it's reasonable to open big events. The reopening of Bere Island or Bressay in the Shetland Islands shouldn't be dependant on Bushy London or Bushy Dublin also being able to open at the same time.

Slow_Runner

robinph wrote: »

I think the likes of parkrun have shot themselves in the foot when it comes to being able to restart as they declared that they will only open a whole country at a time. Means that they can't open a small out of the way event without also opening a big 1000+ sized event and it's going to be far longer until it's reasonable to open big events. The reopening of Bere Island or Bressay in the Shetland Islands shouldn't be dependant on Bushy London or Bushy Dublin also being able to open at the same time.

Problem for Parkrun is they have no control over how many turn up at an event. If St Anne's and Marley Park are not run due to 500 runners in each that leaves 1000 runners looking for alternative parkruns locally so likes of Griffen Park would get swamped.
They can't really go with pre-registration for each park run either as this goes against it's ethos.

Think ur right about Dublin not going ahead but in the grand scheme of things it's a small price to pay

PhilOssophy

Sure lets face it, anyone can start a 5k from their door, mark out a 5k on Google Maps, job done.
While the Parkruns are great and a really enjoyable event and have encouraged all shapes, ages and sizes to get out and run, they very much fit the not needed category at the moment in my view, along with every other sporting event at the moment (sadly, but such is life)

average_runner

Slow_Runner wrote: »

Problem for Parkrun is they have no control over how many turn up at an event. If St Anne's and Marley Park are not run due to 500 runners in each that leaves 1000 runners looking for alternative parkruns locally so likes of Griffen Park would get swamped.
They can't really go with pre-registration for each park run either as this goes against it's ethos.

Think ur right about Dublin not going ahead but in the grand scheme of things it's a small price to pay

Maybe ethos will need to change in these new times

Seannew1

A lot of good points made re parkrun and whether they may or may not return. Will ultimately depend on what govt determines what the definition of a "mass gathering" is. Again, the problem is that Malahide and St. Anne's etc attract 500 odd some weeks, whereas, a parkrun like Castleblayney may only have 25/30. Could it be a case that it will proceed on the side of caution and people over 70 and those with long term illnesses are advised against attending?? I'm not so sure.

PhilOssophy

They will return, just like everything else, things will return to normal some day!

Seannew1

PhilOssophy wrote: »

They will return, just like everything else, things will return to normal some day!

Very true. Big question is 2020 or 2021!

Murph_D

Seannew1 wrote: »

Very true. Big question is 2020 or 2021!

2021 if we are lucky. No way it will happen this year, IMO.

Zebra3

Oktoberfest in Germany cancelled.

A fairly good indicator of how things will be going.

OOnegative

Zebra3 wrote: »

Oktoberfest in Germany cancelled.

A fairly good indicator of how things will be going.

Berlin will be a non starter so going on that.

opus

Zebra3 wrote: »

Oktoberfest in Germany cancelled.

A fairly good indicator of how things will be going.

According to the article I read in the IT, Munich is leaving ~1 billion € on the table by cancelling the beerfest (absolutely the right decision I think) so that should tell you all you need to know about the prospects for mass participation events this year.

This is from the Morning Shakeout newsletter today:

Good morning! Yesterday was Marathon Monday and I’ll be honest, it was a little weird not to have been in Boston the past few days. The only Boston Marathon I’ve missed since 2002 was seven years ago when my wife and I got married, otherwise I’ve volunteered, spectated, covered the race, ran it myself, or been there to support my athletes—and this year wouldn’t have been any different if we weren’t in the throes of a global pandemic right now.

But here we are, all of just trying to do the best we can to stay healthy, support one another, and get through the day. The race itself is rescheduled for September 14 but that sounds like a pipe dream based on the latest projections about when professional sports and large-scale gatherings might come back. I’m not trying to be a purveyor of pessimism but realistically there is almost no chance a 30,000-person race with hundreds of thousands of spectators will happen five months from now—an elite-only contest, maybe, if the right conditions can be created for it, but it’s going to be a while before mass-participation events of any sort are advisable again, and maybe even longer until a majority of the population at large feels comfortable enough to take part in them. I know this is a tough pill to swallow but I share this as encouragement to reframe your outlook toward a speedy return to racing if you haven’t done so already. As Michael Osterholm, an infectious-disease epidemiologist at the University of Minnesota, recently told Ed Yong for The Atlantic, “I think people haven’t understood that this isn’t about the next couple of weeks—this is about the next two years.”

I’m not saying it’s going to be two years before we can race again—I’m hopeful that we can start running with close friends in the next month or so and maybe, just maybe, some smaller, local races are allowable before the end of the year—but the truth is until there’s a vaccine or effective treatment for COVID-19, or we can be certain that there isn’t a new threat of spread, it’s going to be a while before big events are back on the calendar again.

MY BAD

OOnegative wrote: »

Berlin will be a non starter so going on that.

Frankfurt would be the same I'm guessing?

skyblue46

Mellow Yellow 26.2 wrote: »

Frankfurt would be the same I'm guessing?

Everything, everywhere....until there is a vaccine and it has been distributed worldwide I can't see there being any big events...

MY BAD

skyblue46 wrote: »

Everything, everywhere....until there is a vaccine and it has been distributed worldwide I can't see there being any big events...

I think so, although there is no guarantee of a vaccine either. I was talking to a very disappointed club mate this evening who was hoping Frankfurt would still go ahead. I hadn't the heart to tell him what I really think, he was really disillusioned by it all. I actually don't think there will be any small scale races either but who knows.