Northern Ireland Westminster General Election

BonnieSituation

dixiefly wrote: »

I think if they just appeared during a term for a particular debate then other MP's would certainly have an issue with it.

But, in a case where hey have properly discussed it at an EGM and then decided to fight an election on that basis then I think other MP's would not have a problem with it. But then again, I cant speak for them so mine is just another opinion.

but, they should at least have an EGM (or should have had before now) to discuss their strategy in light of Brexit and the DUP holding the balance of power.

"You think..."

You have absolutely no basis for your assertions other than your "feels".

It highlights a complete lack of awareness that you seem to think that they would take their seats in a vacuum.

That's even before you get to the part where Republicans would be taking an oath to a foreign monarch and attending a foreign parliament.

Move on man!

liamtech

dixiefly wrote: »

But how many seats will they do hat in? Probably not enough to cancel out (or mostly cancel) the number of DUP seats.

As far as im aware its only in South Belfast - to facilitate Claire hanna to beat Emma Little Pengally

Obviously there are areas such as derry where the SDLP will run against SF - so there is always a chance they will get more than one seat -

But i accept correction if i am wrong on anything here, thats to the best of my knowledge

SF also standing aside for the Alliance in a few seats so - a chance for remain there too

hotmail.com

Is the Cash for Ash Report due for publication before the election?

liamtech

hotmail.com wrote: »

Is the Cash for Ash Report due for publication before the election?

Actually i seem to recall it is due out before the end of November

https://www.irishnews.com/news/northernirelandnews/2019/09/11/news/rhi-inquiry-report-expected-in-november--1708966/

I would love to think this will turn the unionist community against the DUP - but of course it probably wont as we have discussed

We all know that Cash for Ash RHI was the fault of the DUP 'RADICAL REPUBLICAN PAN NATIONALISTS, AIDED AND ABETTED BY THE EUROPEAN UNION, AND THE ALLIANCE PARTY':rolleyes:

FrancieBrady

liamtech wrote: »

Actually i seem to recall it is due out before the end of November

https://www.irishnews.com/news/northernirelandnews/2019/09/11/news/rhi-inquiry-report-expected-in-november--1708966/

I would love to think this will turn the unionist community against the DUP - but of course it probably wont as we have discussed

We all know that Cash for Ash RHI was the fault of the DUP 'RADICAL REPUBLICAN PAN NATIONALISTS, AIDED AND ABETTED BY THE EUROPEAN UNION, AND THE ALLIANCE PARTY':rolleyes:

Like everybody else, the Unionist community have a fair idea what was going on there.
Don't think it will factor in much either. Unless there are arrests.

BonnieSituation

Dublanedri wrote: »

The only pact left is for the SDLP to stand aside for Dermot Nicholl of SF in East Londonderry for two reaons:

1. Aside from North and South Belfast, East Londonderry is the only DUP constituency to have voted remain.
2. Gregory 'The Douchebag' Campbell. If there is an opportunity to remove him it should be taken.

If the SDLP stand aside I would be confident that SF might just get in.

Why?

Campbell had 19723 and the combined SF/SDLP share was 15304...

I don't see how that's even remotely possible barring some bizarre 3-way split between UUP, DUP and Alliance.

Suffice to say, not a hope.

NIMAN

Shame. The day Campbell is voted out will be a good day.

BonnieSituation

NIMAN wrote: »

Shame. The day Campbell is voted out will be a good day.

I agree. The curry yoghurt will flow around Limavady and Coleraine when it happens!

Roversfan1

Sinn Fein does a great job at not representing Irish people but in two different ways in the North and the South

liamtech

Dublanedri wrote: »

The only pact left is for the SDLP to stand aside for Dermot Nicholl of SF in East Londonderry for two reaons:

1. Aside from North and South Belfast, East Londonderry is the only DUP constituency to have voted remain.
2. Gregory 'The Douchebag' Campbell. If there is an opportunity to remove him it should be taken.

If the SDLP stand aside I would be confident that SF might just get in.

OK so very interesting point there, and looking at the possibilities for ousting this DUP MP

SINN FEIN came second yes - but the SDLP combining votes from the last time around wouldnt have matched

What about Alliance for the sake of remain - it may damage Alliance to court nationalist votes but if both SF and the SDLP backed out - that would be Alliance versus the DUP? possible?

Of course Aontu running adds another wrinkle to the whole election - id be interested to hear peoples views on Aontu possibly damaging remain in the Northern constituencies

Dont think we have discussed them - this is all hypothetical but some of these seats are going to be SO CLOSE - very hard to call

BonnieSituation

Roversfan1 wrote: »

Sinn Fein does a great job at not representing Irish people but in two different ways in the North and the South

Do tell us how?

BonnieSituation

Dublanedri wrote: »

The constituency was one of three DUP seats that voted remain. The other two are facing serious competition, Claire Hanna is a dead cert in South Belfast and John Finucane is likely to defeat Nigel Dodds. The SDLP pulling out means that SF can proceed as the remain party in that constituency, considering the constituents voted remain.

The outcome of this election is unpredictable, so you can't possibly say that there is no chance of Dermot Nicholl defeating Curry My Yoghurt although admittedly if he does win the seat it will be tight.

We're not talking about BelNorth or BelSouth though.

Remain or not, East Derry will be voted on down sectarian lines. Only the UUP or Alliance will dislodge Gregory.

And it's not going to happen.

BonnieSituation

liamtech wrote: »

OK so very interesting point there, and looking at the possibilities for ousting this DUP MP

SINN FEIN came second yes - but the SDLP combining votes from the last time around wouldnt have matched

What about Alliance for the sake of remain - it may damage Alliance to court nationalist votes but if both SF and the SDLP backed out - that would be Alliance versus the DUP? possible?

Of course Aontu running adds another wrinkle to the whole election - id be interested to hear peoples views on Aontu possibly damaging remain in the Northern constituencies

Dont think we have discussed them - this is all hypothetical but some of these seats are going to be SO CLOSE - very hard to call

I take all of these points on board and I appreciate What's being said. But this is as slam a dunk as West Belfast for me. No chance it'll change.

darem93

Yeah getting Gregory Campbell out would be an absolute joy to behold. He's one of the more hateful DUP MPs, which is saying a lot considering the very tight competition he has.

However his majority is just too large to overcome and he somehow managed to increase his vote share in 2017. He's going nowhere unfortunately.

FrancieBrady

liamtech wrote: »

OK so very interesting point there, and looking at the possibilities for ousting this DUP MP

SINN FEIN came second yes - but the SDLP combining votes from the last time around wouldnt have matched

What about Alliance for the sake of remain - it may damage Alliance to court nationalist votes but if both SF and the SDLP backed out - that would be Alliance versus the DUP? possible?

Of course Aontu running adds another wrinkle to the whole election - id be interested to hear peoples views on Aontu possibly damaging remain in the Northern constituencies

Dont think we have discussed them - this is all hypothetical but some of these seats are going to be SO CLOSE - very hard to call

Aontu will find it hard to make an impact in this particular election imo. I am presuming as they are Eurosceptic that they are pro Brexit, so will get lost in the head to heads with the big options in that battle. Unless the abortion issue becomes a major feature of the election and I don't see how as the only way that will change is in the Executive.

L1011

Hand SDLP Foyle back and they might talk about standing aside in East.

That's not going to happen, though.

BonnieSituation

Fintan O'Toole tying himself up in knots here:

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/fintan-o-toole-what-if-corbyn-offered-sinn-f%C3%A9in-a-border-poll-1.4079555?mode=amp

BonnieSituation

L1011 wrote: »

Hand SDLP Foyle back and they might talk about standing aside in East.

That's not going to happen, though.

But to what end? So that Nationalists can lose by fewer votes?

markodaly

Faugheen wrote: »

As long as SF has elected MPs then those MPs still have a mandate to abstain.

Again, it’s really not a difficult concept. If you want to be represented in the House of Commons then there are parties for you to vote for.

All well and good but not the question I asked.
What I asked is if SF loose seats, will their policy of abstentionism come under pressure?

FrancieBrady

markodaly wrote: »

All well and good but not the question I asked.
What I asked is if SF loose seats, will their policy of abstentionism come under pressure?

SF have lost seats before, like any party. Can't see it being attributed to abstentionism particularly.
I think the battle between O'Neill and O'Dowd might have a bigger impact on their vote.
The leadership change hasn't worked for them.

markodaly

FrancieBrady wrote: »

SF have lost seats before, like any party. Can't see it being attributed to abstentionism particularly.
I think the battle between O'Neill and O'Dowd might have a bigger impact on their vote.
The leadership change hasn't worked for them.

Well Faughen made the point that they now have 7 SF MP's elected which and I quote " The increase in Sinn Fein MPs over the years is proof their abstention mandate has only got stronger."

By logical extension, a decrease in Sinn Fein MPs is proof that their abstention mandate has gotten weaker.

FrancieBrady

markodaly wrote: »

Well Faughen made the point that they no have 7 SF MP's elected which and I quote " The increase in Sinn Fein MPs over the years is proof their abstention mandate has only got stronger."

By logical extension, a decrease in Sinn Fein MPs is proof that their abstention mandate has gotten weaker.

You want me to answer for something somebody else said?

Like any party, the increase in their vote over the years shows that they are effective representatives. They have taken a huge amount of votes from a party that did sit in Westminster.
What has been proved by that is Westminster clearly doesn't do much of anything for this section of the electorate.
What has happened to those who DO sit in Westminster and who were 'power brokers' in the last 3 years ins't exactly going to change the picture.

johnnyskeleton

Mod note:

Lots of one liner quips etc deleted.

This thread is about the Northern Irish Westminster General Election. While SF's policy of abstention is a factor in that, it is not the only factor. We seem to have been bogged down in a "why should they?"/"why shouldn't they?" tit for tat.

If people want to elaborate further on the reasons for abstaining, or the consequences of same that's fine. But continued assertions without advancing the discussion will result in sanctions.

golfball37

Overall for NI I see no change except perhaps the SDLP picking up 1 in South Belfast [Claire Hanna]at the expense of ELP and DUP. North Down will now go DUP imo so they will remain unchanged at 10.
There could be interesting races in Fermanagh and East Belfast but ultimately both incumbents will hang on would be my guess. Alliance should target East Belfast and North Down as potential seats but I see the DUP winning both.

DUP 10
SF 7
SDLP 1

dixiefly

BonnieSituation wrote: »

"You think..."

You have absolutely no basis for your assertions other than your "feels".

It highlights a complete lack of awareness that you seem to think that they would take their seats in a vacuum.

That's even before you get to the part where Republicans would be taking an oath to a foreign monarch and attending a foreign parliament.

Move on man!

I am perfectly entitled to my opinion based on my observations of the current state of play between the parties both in Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

And I am not saying that they would be taking their seats in a vacuum. They would be taking their seats because of a range of potential outcomes from the election. Putting aside their traditional absentionism because of the uniquely historical situation at the moment.

However, I know its not going to happen as the decision would need to have been made by now. They had plenty of time to consider it in recent years.

Interesting observation from Fintan O'Toole on the topic:

An important consideration here is that Sinn Féin has already in effect shifted its position on abstentionism. Last week the party announced it would not stand in South Belfast, East Belfast and North Down and urged its voters in those constituencies to support Remain candidates instead.

golfball37

Dublanedri wrote: »

I believe it will be:

DUP 9
SF 8
SDLP 1

Even nationalist-unionist divide.

You think Finucane will win NB obviously?

liamtech

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Fintan O'Toole tying himself up in knots here:

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/fintan-o-toole-what-if-corbyn-offered-sinn-f%C3%A9in-a-border-poll-1.4079555?mode=amp

I like Fintan O'Toole myself, he is very articulate - but he is genuinely mistaken here for the two main reasons we have all discussed

• Sinn Fein are too toxic in British political circles - If they were in Westminster, they would be consistently vilified, and anyone who stood with them would be attacked - it would arguably damage remain. It would take years for them to be accepted in the HOC - had they took there seats in 2001, PERHAPS they could now have an impact but to enter now would add further polarization to the HOC
• Sinn Fein consistently run on Abstentionist platforms with regards to the HOC - arguably they would lose support if they suddenly changed approach

The only hope was for them to stand aside on masse in favor of the SDLP - but it would have damaged them politically at the next Assembly election, if one ever occurs.

blanch152

liamtech wrote: »

I like Fintan O'Toole myself, he is very articulate - but he is genuinely mistaken here for the two main reasons we have all discussed

• Sinn Fein are too toxic in British political circles - If they were in Westminster, they would be consistently vilified, and anyone who stood with them would be attacked - it would arguably damage remain. It would take years for them to be accepted in the HOC - had they took there seats in 2001, PERHAPS they could now have an impact but to enter now would add further polarization to the HOC
• Sinn Fein consistently run on Abstentionist platforms with regards to the HOC - arguably they would lose support if they suddenly changed approach

The only hope was for them to stand aside on masse in favor of the SDLP - but it would have damaged them politically at the next Assembly election, if one ever occurs.

Best outcome for Northern Ireland is for the SDLP to get two seats and be the difference in ensuring Corbyn gets in and a second referendum being held.

FrancieBrady

liamtech wrote: »

I like Fintan O'Toole myself, he is very articulate - but he is genuinely mistaken here for the two main reasons we have all discussed

• Sinn Fein are too toxic in British political circles - If they were in Westminster, they would be consistently vilified, and anyone who stood with them would be attacked - it would arguably damage remain. It would take years for them to be accepted in the HOC - had they took there seats in 2001, PERHAPS they could now have an impact but to enter now would add further polarization to the HOC
• Sinn Fein consistently run on Abstentionist platforms with regards to the HOC - arguably they would lose support if they suddenly changed approach

The only hope was for them to stand aside on masse in favor of the SDLP - but it would have damaged them politically at the next Assembly election, if one ever occurs.

I think you'll find (and it's why I think it was an astute move by SF to step back, if it was deliberate policy) that Irish citizens in NI know that this particular fight will not be won by political parties in NI.

With the DUP thrown under a bus on a number of occasions now (from a very high pedestal) and the optics (whether it is the case or not) that the Dublin government is taking it's lead from or at the very least, listening to SF policy, I cannot see their vote being damaged much at all.
The Irish citizen in NI will want to see a strong all Ireland party representing them in a parliament where their opinions and needs count for something - Dublin.
They have known for a 100 years that they don't matter in Westminster - the last 3 years will have underscored that feeling rather than diminish it. I wouldn't agree with SF on everything but I would certainly agree on that.

liamtech

blanch152 wrote: »

Best outcome for Northern Ireland is for the SDLP to get two seats and be the difference in ensuring Corbyn gets in and a second referendum being held.

I completely agree

But sadly it is less and less likely for me. I cannot see Remain getting enough seats. If anything Labour will lose seats.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-election-brexit-party-remain-corbyn-farage-conservative-tory-a9199096.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unite_to_Remain

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/lib-dem-labour-alliance-in-doubt-1-6371754

Unite to remain is the only hope for stopping brexit now - and it needs the Labour party - and its not gonna get it (not official yet but JC is still rambling on about five pillars, renegotiating, running across GB etc etc)

I am hoping that maybe they work something out - but with JC involved i cannot see it happening