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Northern Ireland Westminster General Election

18911131424

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 70,238 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Will be interesting. 30% in an area could make many seats a lottery, would be interesting to see the figures broken down by area.


    I would imagine that the majority those that are coming onto the electoral roll are young Fenians but I could be wrong. If this is part of the demographic shift that is happening in the six then the DUP could be in for a rough day.



    This election is getting interesting.

    Could just as easily be a Unionist vote coming out too. Interesting either way.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,980 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Could just as easily be a Unionist vote coming out too. Interesting either way.

    Think I read unionists/loyalists are holding local clinics to get people to register to vote.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 70,238 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Looks like SF have recovered their ability to get the vote out in the by-elections, wonder if that will be repeated in the north.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 69,612 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Looks like SF have recovered their ability to get the vote out in the by-elections, wonder if that will be repeated in the north.

    Except in Fingal!

    (edit: I fixed that spelling twice and it still went wrong)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,487 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Looks like SF have recovered their ability to get the vote out in the by-elections, wonder if that will be repeated in the north.


    Very hard to tell. Ward got 24% of the vote, up from the 22.7% that O’Broin got, but this was less than half the number of votes, given the exceptionally low turnout.

    If you think that the Sinn Fein vote is generally growing, then their effort to get the vote out was no better or worse than any other party. If you believe their vote is generally shrinking, as reflected in Fingal and Wexford, as well as in the opinion polls, then there certainly was an exceptional effort in getting the vote out in Dublin Mid-West.

    Of more interest and worth studying is the transfer pattern, and how successful they were in picking up transfers. They seem to be less transfer toxic, which should help in keeping seats at the next election.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 70,238 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    blanch152 wrote: »
    Very hard to tell. Ward got 24% of the vote, up from the 22.7% that O’Broin got, but this was less than half the number of votes, given the exceptionally low turnout.

    If you think that the Sinn Fein vote is generally growing, then their effort to get the vote out was no better or worse than any other party. If you believe their vote is generally shrinking, as reflected in Fingal and Wexford, as well as in the opinion polls, then there certainly was an exceptional effort in getting the vote out in Dublin Mid-West.

    Of more interest and worth studying is the transfer pattern, and how successful they were in picking up transfers. They seem to be less transfer toxic, which should help in keeping seats at the next election.

    I said at the time of the locals that they seemed to have relaxed on their fabled ability to get a vote out. They seem re-energised and you never gave your opinion on them being able to get the vote out in the north.

    I think this by-election couldn't have gone better for them in respect to re-energising them.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,737 ✭✭✭SafeSurfer


    I said at the time of the locals that they seemed to have relaxed on their fabled ability to get a vote out. They seem re-energised and you never gave your opinion on them being able to get the vote out in the north.

    I think this by-election couldn't have gone better for them in respect to re-energising them.

    It will be interesting to see how energised Wards’s supporters will feel when he loses his seat in the next GE after being forced to resign as councillor.

    Multo autem ad rem magis pertinet quallis tibi vide aris quam allis



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,059 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    Will be interesting. 30% in an area could make many seats a lottery, would be interesting to see the figures broken down by area.


    I would imagine that the majority those that are coming onto the electoral roll are young Fenians but I could be wrong. If this is part of the demographic shift that is happening in the six then the DUP could be in for a rough day.



    This election is getting interesting.

    Young most definitely, but no reason to think they would be Fenians.

    Brexit has sharpened some minds I think. Those that may benefit from this new wave of voter registration would be, the Greens, PBP and Alliance first and foremost.

    Maybe even UUP or SDLP.

    I don't think they are going to benefit the established two big green/orange parties of the SF/DUP.
    They pretty much maxed out their vote the last time out.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,664 ✭✭✭sid waddell


    wrong thread


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 70,238 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    markodaly wrote: »
    Young most definitely, but no reason to think they would be Fenians.

    Brexit has sharpened some minds I think. Those that may benefit from this new wave of voter registration would be, the Greens, PBP and Alliance first and foremost.

    Maybe even UUP or SDLP.

    I don't think they are going to benefit the established two big green/orange parties of the SF/DUP.
    They pretty much maxed out their vote the last time out.

    I doubt it is Greens or PBPers that are suddenly motivated to register as typically they are engaged with politics already.

    Seems to me it is definitely a surge in Leave and Remain single issue voters.

    If they are young I would again hazard a guess they will be mainly looking to vote for remain parties.

    PBP want to leave the EU.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    30% of the 2017 turnout is an extraordinary total, something significant must be going on. In England the corresponding figure is probably around 10-15% or in that region and thats after a sustained and vigorous remain campaign and record levels of applications.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,870 ✭✭✭CrabRevolution


    During the last Stormont election it was noted during the election day that turnout was uncharacteristically high for an Assembly vote and commentators suggested that this was a bad sign for the unionist parties, as they tend to do better when the turnout is lower.

    As it turned out (no pun intended) the election had the highest turnout in 20 years, and delivered the first assembly without a unionist majority of seats.

    If the turnout in NI swells for this upcoming election like is being speculated here I would be more confident in successes for SF, the SDLP and Alliance.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,621 ✭✭✭Nidgeweasel


    Could just as easily be a Unionist vote coming out too. Interesting either way.

    I'd be inclined to think it's unionist aswell.

    Unless I'm reading in the wrong places, there definitely appears to be a ground swell of unionist activism. We know what they're like when they suddenly think the union is under siege and that type of nonsense.

    It's going to be very interesting.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,017 ✭✭✭SharpshooterTom


    I'd be inclined to think it's unionist aswell.

    Unless I'm reading in the wrong places, there definitely appears to be a ground swell of unionist activism. We know what they're like when they suddenly think the union is under siege and that type of nonsense.

    It's going to be very interesting.

    They've been like this for every election for the past 50 years? I mean honestly when's it NOT been siege mentality amongst unionism in any election recently?

    The flag protests energised unionism in the mid 2010s but nationalism has bounced back since the RHI scandal in 2017.

    Nationalism didn't take much of an interest in the Brexit referendum, turnout was lower in nationalist constituencies given it was seen as just an English/Tory fantasy at first, but now since the Irish border has come at the forefront of brexit Irish nationalism has something to get off the couch for now.

    Given also some of the toxic anti Irish rhetoric from the UK/Tory press over the past 3 years and real possibility of a hard border I think you'll see nationalist voters turnout for this quite strongly more than usual.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 70,238 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Arlene's turn tonight on The View.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,621 ✭✭✭Nidgeweasel


    They've been like this for every election for the past 50 years? I mean honestly when's it NOT been siege mentality amongst unionism in any election recently?

    The flag protests energised unionism in the mid 2010s but nationalism has bounced back since the RHI scandal in 2017.

    Nationalism didn't take much of an interest in the Brexit referendum, turnout was lower in nationalist constituencies given it was seen as just an English/Tory fantasy at first, but now since the Irish border has come at the forefront of brexit Irish nationalism has something to get off the couch for now.

    Given also some of the toxic anti Irish rhetoric from the UK/Tory press over the past 3 years and real possibility of a hard border I think you'll see nationalist voters turnout for this quite strongly more than usual.

    Not to the extent as they have now with the Betrayal Act and all that nonsense though, but I see your point.

    Time will tell I suppose and I hope i'm wrong!

    Arlene on with Carruthers tonight. He really needs to be asking serious questions of her and her lamentable party.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,318 ✭✭✭liamtech


    Arlene's turn tonight on The View.

    T minus 15 minutes until Arlene Foster gets her entrails handed to her.... LIVE .. on BBC 1 Northern Ireland The View.. with mark carruthers

    Do we know its definitely her?? Cause i have this whacky (Malcom Tucker inspired) theory that it will be Nigel Dodds - THE DUP LEADER who is not Foster, from the HOC who can avoid having to talk about RHI, Stormont, or just how completely screwed fosters career is

    Sic semper tyrannis - thus always to Tyrants



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 45,630 ✭✭✭✭Mr.Nice Guy


    Been looking forward to this for weeks. Suspect Mark Carruthers has saved his best grilling for last.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,318 ✭✭✭liamtech


    Been looking forward to this for weeks. Suspect Mark Carruthers has saved his best grilling for last.

    The term that comes to mind for tonight's interview


    vivisection: the practice of performing operations on live animals for the purpose of experimentation or scientific research, or public humiliation

    honestly i cannot see how she gets through this intact - catchphrases to include
    • i reject that (to every accusation of DUP ineptitude)
    • the dup will wield significant influence (when ever majorities or numbers are brought up)
    • we have had a positive influence (when discussing the disastrous last few years)
    • or MPs will always have influence (when discussing how screwed they are)
    • there is much we can do
    • Boris Johnsons deal will be alterred
    • Pam Nationalist Republican conspiracy involving the alliance, SF-IRA, SDLP, the Greens, the Alliance, anyone who isnt DUP - that is who is responsible for this
    • This is why we need DUP Representatives (when discussing seats)

    Sic semper tyrannis - thus always to Tyrants



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 70,238 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Not expecting much of this tbh. She will be well schooled and is actually quite good at the buttoned lip interview. She do plenty of the familiar high moral ground stuff.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,318 ✭✭✭liamtech


    Not expecting much of this tbh. She will be well schooled and is actually quite good at the buttoned lip interview. She do plenty of the familiar high moral ground stuff.

    So far if i was to rank these
    1. Colm Eastwood - by a mile
    2. Mary Lou McDonald - done very well
    3. Naomi Long - survived but only just
    4. Steven Aiken - very poor

    So TBH its just a question of where Foster fits in to this score board

    of course thats my opinion anyway

    Sic semper tyrannis - thus always to Tyrants



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,318 ✭✭✭liamtech


    Crashing - Mark Carruthers is a fantastic interviewer - the numbers remark was hilarious - she backed down so so quickly when it looked like he was about to spell out how screwed they are - no chance of gains - every chance of losses

    she is brazening it out - at present she is not bottom of the table - in my book - just above Aiken - still time on the clock

    EDIT - that cough and gasp for water - was pretty telling - on the ropes

    Sic semper tyrannis - thus always to Tyrants



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 45,630 ✭✭✭✭Mr.Nice Guy


    She did reasonably well for the first 5-10 minutes but she's struggling now.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,633 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com


    Arlene doesn't do detail very well.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,318 ✭✭✭liamtech


    Not expecting much of this tbh. She will be well schooled and is actually quite good at the buttoned lip interview. She do plenty of the familiar high moral ground stuff.

    Brazening it out alright - beating Aiken on points in my book - he was inept - way way out of his league

    Sic semper tyrannis - thus always to Tyrants



  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,070 ✭✭✭boggerman1


    Arlene getting roasted on a cash for ash fire again.car crash


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,621 ✭✭✭Nidgeweasel


    She is contemptible.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 45,630 ✭✭✭✭Mr.Nice Guy


    I'm sure Arlene is thrilled to see Sam McBride, author of Burned, on the panel.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 70,238 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    As I thought. The holier than thou stance fallen back on again and again. She lectures people when under pressure. That won't lose her any votes.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 45,630 ✭✭✭✭Mr.Nice Guy


    You could tell Foster was coached not to react and to keep her cool. She weathered the early questions on being left high and dry by Johnson fairly well, but you could see her struggling to hide her irritation when questioned about the party speaking for NI. She was shaky when the issue of health came up. The coughing didn't look great. Her disdain for the questions shone through and she's clearly one of those people that doesn't like having to explain decisions.

    Her demeanour was very defensive and cagey and this was very much about getting through it unscathed rather than making an impassioned pitch to voters. There was very little enthusiasm on show.

    Overall, she did better than Aiken and those who are receptive to the DUP message will still be after it.

    Think the best performers in these interviews have been Eastwood and McDonald. Aiken was by far the worst. Thought Long had a shocker by her standards.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,318 ✭✭✭liamtech


    You could tell Foster was coached not to react and to keep her cool. She weathered the early questions on being left high and dry by Johnson fairly well, but you could see her struggling to hide her irritation when questioned about the party speaking for NI. She was shaky when the issue of health came up. The coughing didn't look great. Her disdain for the questions shone through and she's clearly one of those people that doesn't like having to explain decisions.

    Her demeanour was very defensive and cagey and this was very much about getting through it unscathed rather than making an impassioned pitch to voters. There was very little enthusiasm on show.

    Overall, she did better than Aiken and those who are receptive to the DUP message will still be after it.

    Think the best performers in these interviews have been Eastwood and McDonald. Aiken was by far the worst. Thought Long had a shocker by her standards.

    Cannot disagree with any of that - Aiken was disastrous - very disappointing from a challenging Unionist party - that is, a unionist party attempting to unseat Unionism's incumbent

    Long was not good by her own standards but there were less dodges in terms of her responses - so i think she edges ahead of foster

    Foster adopted that holier than thou attitude - didnt do well but could have been worse - still contemptible from what is effectively the Christian Right

    Anyway for me the finale table is

    Eastwood
    McDonald
    Long
    Foster
    Aiken

    Sic semper tyrannis - thus always to Tyrants



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,130 ✭✭✭Rodin


    I like Naomi Long, but she has no business talking about health. Ever.


  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 39,653 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Rodin wrote: »
    I like Naomi Long, but she has no business talking about health. Ever.

    No more ad homina like this please.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 70,238 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    liamtech wrote: »
    Cannot disagree with any of that - Aiken was disastrous - very disappointing from a challenging Unionist party - that is, a unionist party attempting to unseat Unionism's incumbent

    Long was not good by her own standards but there were less dodges in terms of her responses - so i think she edges ahead of foster

    Foster adopted that holier than thou attitude - didnt do well but could have been worse - still contemptible from what is effectively the Christian Right

    Anyway for me the finale table is

    Eastwood
    McDonald
    Long
    Foster
    Aiken

    I think the Alliance will suffer in this election losing the gains they made. Long did badly in her interview because Carruthers was quickly able to expose the restrictions of the corner that they had boxed themselves into.

    It is not an election to be sitting on a fence.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,017 ✭✭✭SharpshooterTom


    Micheál Martin campaigned with Colum Eastwood yesterday in Derry.
    https://twitter.com/columeastwood/status/1202606256625799174

    Even though Sinn Fein are by far the most popular nationalist party here, would it be correct in saying that most people in the south actually would prefer the SDLP to Sinn Fein?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 34,089 ✭✭✭✭NIMAN


    Driving through the Bogside the other day I noticed posters on lamp posts saying "vote sinn fein and oppose Tory cuts " .

    Not sure how voting for a party which doesn't sit in Westminster, and which hasn't sat in local government for 1000+ days, is going to help fight the Tories.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,220 ✭✭✭cameramonkey


    Micheál Martin campaigned with Colum Eastwood yesterday in Derry.
    https://twitter.com/columeastwood/status/1202606256625799174

    Even though Sinn Fein are by far the most popular nationalist party here, would it be correct in saying that most people in the south actually would prefer the SDLP to Sinn Fein?


    He says in his tweet "For Derry to reach its full potential Magee needs expanded." He sounds like an English footballer with that word usage, is it even proper English? Should it not be "needs to be expanded"?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,318 ✭✭✭liamtech


    Micheál Martin campaigned with Colum Eastwood yesterday in Derry.
    https://twitter.com/columeastwood/status/1202606256625799174

    Even though Sinn Fein are by far the most popular nationalist party here, would it be correct in saying that most people in the south actually would prefer the SDLP to Sinn Fein?

    So the Fianna Fail leader meets his SDLP counterpart (obviously i am aware of the partnership between FF and SDLP) - but yes they meet a week away from a UK election

    So thats Foyle in the bag for Sinn Fein by my reckoning

    Still dont understand what the SDLP gain from FF - honestly consider myself ignorant of this so if anyone wants to educate me on the reasoning of it, and the goal behind it - please do

    Sic semper tyrannis - thus always to Tyrants



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 70,238 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    liamtech wrote: »
    So the Fianna Fail leader meets his SDLP counterpart (obviously i am aware of the partnership between FF and SDLP) - but yes they meet a week away from a UK election

    So thats Foyle in the bag for Sinn Fein by my reckoning

    Still dont understand what the SDLP gain from FF - honestly consider myself ignorant of this so if anyone wants to educate me on the reasoning of it, and the goal behind it - please do

    Both of them see SF as their most immediate threat.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,318 ✭✭✭liamtech


    Both of them see SF as their most immediate threat.

    By my reckoning they are weakening one another by having this cross border pact - but thats my opinion - and the SDLP are more weakened out of the two

    Sic semper tyrannis - thus always to Tyrants



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,806 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    liamtech wrote: »
    By my reckoning they are weakening one another by having this cross border pact - but thats my opinion - and the SDLP are more weakened out of the two

    Although they are predicted to win back Foyle and South Belfast by most commentators.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 70,238 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Although they are predicted to win back Foyle and South Belfast by most commentators.

    Would be a huge blow to the SDLP not to take Foyle back.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,737 ✭✭✭SafeSurfer


    Would be a huge blow to the SDLP not to take Foyle back.

    SDLP should regain the seat if the same level of voter fraud which occurred in 2017 doesn’t happen again.

    Multo autem ad rem magis pertinet quallis tibi vide aris quam allis



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 70,238 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    SafeSurfer wrote: »
    SDLP should regain the seat if the same level of voter fraud which occurred in 2017 doesn’t happen again.

    What 'fraud'. Wasn't that just a FB allegation that was investigated and came to nothing?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,737 ✭✭✭SafeSurfer


    What 'fraud'. Wasn't that just a FB allegation that was investigated and came to nothing?

    Bags of postal ballots found filled in for the Sinn Fein Candidate coupled with an unprecedented 300% rise in postal votes. Oh yes, absolutely, nothing to see here, despite every party bar Sinn Fein saying the level of fraud was unprecedented.

    Multo autem ad rem magis pertinet quallis tibi vide aris quam allis



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 70,238 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    SafeSurfer wrote: »
    Bags of postal ballots found filled in for the Sinn Fein Candidate coupled with an unprecedented 300% rise in postal votes. Oh yes, absolutely, nothing to see here, despite every party bar Sinn Fein saying the level of fraud was unprecedented.

    Should be easy to post links to this investigation. Where SF sanctioned for this?...I wasn't aware of it.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,737 ✭✭✭SafeSurfer


    Should be easy to post links to this investigation. Where SF sanctioned for this?...I wasn't aware of it.


    Ah no Francie, you are right. It was only a Facebook allegation of fraud concerning the use of pre filled in postal ballots cast for the Sinn Fein candidate.

    Multo autem ad rem magis pertinet quallis tibi vide aris quam allis



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 70,238 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    SafeSurfer wrote: »
    Ah no Francie, you are right. It was only a Facebook allegation of fraud concerning the use of pre filled in postal ballots cast for the Sinn Fein candidate.

    The reason I asked you for some sort of official investigation finding this to have happened is that nearly every close election I have seen has featured allegations like this from the losing side, it is commonly known as 'sour grapes'.

    Anyone that can write their own name could fill in ballot forms btw.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,737 ✭✭✭SafeSurfer


    The reason I asked you for some sort of official investigation finding this to have happened is that nearly every close election I have seen has featured allegations like this from the losing side, it is commonly known as 'sour grapes'.

    Anyone that can write their own name could fill in ballot forms btw.

    Yes you are probably right. Anyone who would question why proxy voting in predominantly Sinn Fein areas in Foyle was 17 times the national average is suffering from a severe case of sour grapes.

    Multo autem ad rem magis pertinet quallis tibi vide aris quam allis



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 70,238 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    SafeSurfer wrote: »
    Yes you are probably right. Anyone who would question why proxy voting in predominantly Sinn Fein areas in Foyle was 17 times the national average is suffering from a severe case of sour grapes.

    Proxy voting isn't fraud. It happens all over.
    And it was investigated I see from a google search and nothing came of it.


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