Northern Ireland Westminster General Election

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

I have no doubt that the letter to the Irish Times is correct, and that there isn't a single SF member who would stand up and say they favour dropping abstentionism. However, you would have said the same about FF and coalitions thirty years ago, and that changed.

Circumstances and the wishes of the electorate will bring change, not what members think. That is how all political parties end up changing core policies.

'Abstentionism', if the voter understands it, has been a triumphant success.

That Westminster is irrelevant and marginalised in NI and defeated in it's own goal(to Brexit with an advantage) is key to how this will be perceived by SF's support. NI voters cannot vote for the governing parties in the south, but they can do the next best thing, vote for an all-Ireland party that gives them a voice in the only parliament that is relevant to them.
That has been the goal of SF for 100 years, I cannot see them backing away from it.

markodaly

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Just looking at the results though, if the SDLP weren't so pig-headed that would have been a SF (and similar) seat almost all of the time since the 50s.

Em, the SDLP first ran in this seat in 1983 Not sure how you can blame them for anything prior to that. Besides, I do not want the SDLP going down the sectarian route ala DUP/UUP.

markodaly

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1194716512411631617

Albeit fieldwork done before the tactical alliances.

Comparing the voting intentions of this poll to the last actual GE results in 2017

DUP: 36% - 28% down 8
SF: 29% - 24% down 5
SDLP: 12% -14% up 2
Alliance: 8% - 16% up 8
UUP: 10% - 9% down 1

DUP and SF are both down heavily
Alliance storming ahead
SDLP with gains
UUP pretty much as it is

If it stays anything like the poll suggests there will be causalities.

BonnieSituation

markodaly wrote: »

Em, the SDLP first ran in this seat in 1983 Not sure how you can blame them for anything prior to that. Besides, I do not want the SDLP going down the sectarian route ala DUP/UUP.

And?

I mean, it's quite something to jump on that part of the sentence and ignore the salient point. I will edit it again for ya! :O

markodaly

BonnieSituation wrote: »

And?

I mean, it's quite something to jump on that part of the sentence and ignore the salient point. I will edit it again for ya! :O

I am not sure what your salient point is so.

You blamed the SDLP for SF losing that seat recently, which means they should have entered into a sectarian pact with SF in the seat to not run a candidate.
The first time the SDLP ran a candidate in that seat was 1983

Correct me if I am missing anything or if anything is factually wrong.

BonnieSituation

markodaly wrote: »

I am not sure what your salient point is so.

You blamed the SDLP for SF losing that seat recently, which means they should have entered into a sectarian pact with SF in the seat to not run a candidate.
The first time the SDLP ran a candidate in that seat was 1983

Correct me if I am missing anything or if anything is factually wrong.

I corrected the post to be more obvious for you. I can't do much more than that really.

If you can't figure it out maybe this isn't the forum for you.

markodaly

BonnieSituation wrote: »

I corrected the post to be more obvious for you. I can't do much more than that really.

If you can't figure it out maybe this isn't the forum for you.

Playing the man there my friend.

What I said, was 100% correct.
And besides, I will repeat I do not want to see the SDLP or SF enter into sectarian pacts. I thought SF was above that type of stuff, but maybe not.

blanch152

markodaly wrote: »

Comparing the voting intentions of this poll to the last actual GE results in 2017

DUP: 36% - 28% down 8
SF: 29% - 24% down 5
SDLP: 12% -14% up 2
Alliance: 8% - 16% up 8
UUP: 10% - 9% down 1

DUP and SF are both down heavily
Alliance storming ahead
SDLP with gains
UUP pretty much as it is

If it stays anything like the poll suggests there will be causalities.

I don't think anybody can be surprised by this.

The DUP have risked the economic future of Northern Ireland through supporting Brexit. Sinn Fein have stood idly by shouting from the sidelines. Both parties are bound to lose support.

Stop moaning ffs

I don’t know how reliable a gauge it is but following all the main candidates and various NI twitter accounts, it all seems so broken and vicious and vindictive this election. Probably more than ever.
Some of the banners being hung around Belfast accusing the SDLP of having the Shankill bomber campaigning for them and accusations of intimidation of ordinary people by SF and Loyalist gangs, and the age old A vote for SF is a vote for the IRA chestnut.

You’d hope this election would see alliance make headway and a sign that the region is moving away from all that crap but it really isn’t. The PUL community seem to be devastated about being abandoned by The UK but of course placing the blame everywhere apart from where it belongs, in this case the DUP and their own stupidity.

BonnieSituation

markodaly wrote: »

Playing the man there my friend.

What I said, was 100% correct.
And besides, I will repeat I do not want to see the SDLP or SF enter into sectarian pacts. I thought SF was above that type of stuff, but maybe not.

Good for you.

Should we buy your faux position on the morality of a non-existent pact?

Stop moaning ffs

I mean where do you start with this

https://twitter.com/darkhorace/status/1194979093659496449?s=21

BonnieSituation

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

I mean where do you start with this

https://twitter.com/darkhorace/status/1194979093659496449?s=21

Remember when the UUP tried to rise above it?

Stop moaning ffs

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Remember when the UUP tried to rise above it?

No?

BonnieSituation

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

No?

They had a pact with the SDLP under Nesbitt's leadership in 2016.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/uup-and-sdlp-form-new-partnership-in-northern-ireland-1.2839971

FrancieBrady

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

I mean where do you start with this

https://twitter.com/darkhorace/status/1194979093659496449?s=21

Question is, will it work? The harderliners will probably get harder but where will their more moderate, floating vote go.

That is what will be fascinating about this election. It's all about Remain/Take The Deal V Leave.

Stop moaning ffs

Coupled with the fact that the DUP have done a Complete 180 on it

Arlene in an election video for the DUP that went on and on about everything and didn’t mention brexit once.

Because of course not. They don’t way to own it but seem to think people are stupid and/or taking their vote for granted.

I’d say they’re in for a rude awakening come the day.

golfball37

There are at least 20% on each side of the divide who will vote on sectarian lines every time. This figure increases on the Orange side when the leadership of Political Unionism whips up fear about SF or a United Ireland. I detest our electorate down here for returning FFG every time but up there they have even more fear of different politics than we do, and probably need to be pitied even more than us.

For the record I see DUP gaining a seat in North Down, possibly only losing South Belfast. 10 minimum
I see SF holding all 7, winning by more in Foyle than people are predicting too.

It will surely be inconceivable after all the rubbish about Brexit that we will get 11-7 seat split between the 2 extreme colour parties but I predict exactly that.

My preference regarding the assembly would be for a joint declaration by both governments that it can be reconvened with a coalition between Alliance, SDLP and UUP. If the other 2 don't want to grow up let them bring it to human rights court or something. Hopefully the people will see the place can function without them and voting habits may change.

BonnieSituation

golfball37 wrote: »

There are at least 20% on each side of the divide who will vote on sectarian lines every time. This figure increases on the Orange side when the leadership of Political Unionism whips up fear about SF or a United Ireland. I detest our electorate down here for returning FFG every time but up there they have even more fear of different politics than we do, and probably need to be pitied even more than us.

For the record I see DUP gaining a seat in North Down, possibly only losing South Belfast. 10 minimum
I see SF holding all 7, winning by more in Foyle than people are predicting too.

It will surely be inconceivable after all the rubbish about Brexit that we will get 11-7 seat split between the 2 extreme colour parties but I predict exactly that.

My preference regarding the assembly would be for a joint declaration by both governments that it can be reconvened with a coalition between Alliance, SDLP and UUP. If the other 2 don't want to grow up let them bring it to human rights court or something. Hopefully the people will see the place can function without them and voting habits may change.

Cheers for that.

What's making ya think that SF will make such gains in Foyle?

golfball37

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Cheers for that.

What's making ya think that SF will make such gains in Foyle?

Not gains, just a comfortable retention. I honestly believe a lot of the SDLP vote in 2017 was a personal vote for long time MP Mark Durkan. I don't believe Eastwood has the same profile yet and the SF lady McCarron will get more votes than she did last time.

Just my opinion FWIW.

liamtech

Mark Carruthers The View tonight - think its a discussion with UUP leader Steve Aiken

FrancieBrady

liamtech wrote: »

Mark Carruthers The View tonight - think its a discussion with UUP leader Steve Aiken

Steve is in for a grilling, I would imagine.

Mr.Nice Guy

He'll be Steve Aching during this interview I'd say.

I like the fact that they have a panel on standby after these interviews to really rub it in. Fionnuala O'Connor didn't show any mercy to Naomi Long last week.

markodaly

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Good for you.

Should we buy your faux position on the morality of a non-existent pact?

Do you advocate a sectarian pact?

Your implications of the 'pigheaded' SDLP costing SF that seat, certainly portrays your support for one.

By all means clarify.

markodaly

golfball37 wrote: »

There are at least 20% on each side of the divide who will vote on sectarian lines every time. This figure increases on the Orange side when the leadership of Political Unionism whips up fear about SF or a United Ireland. I detest our electorate down here for returning FFG every time but up there they have even more fear of different politics than we do, and probably need to be pitied even more than us.

For the record I see DUP gaining a seat in North Down, possibly only losing South Belfast. 10 minimum
I see SF holding all 7, winning by more in Foyle than people are predicting too.

It will surely be inconceivable after all the rubbish about Brexit that we will get 11-7 seat split between the 2 extreme colour parties but I predict exactly that.

My preference regarding the assembly would be for a joint declaration by both governments that it can be reconvened with a coalition between Alliance, SDLP and UUP. If the other 2 don't want to grow up let them bring it to human rights court or something. Hopefully the people will see the place can function without them and voting habits may change.

No way will the split be 11-7.
The DUP are going to lose seats in BS and probably BE. BN is going to be a dogfight.
SF looking very vunerable in Foyle, Fermanagh - South Tyrone and South Down looking at the latest polls.
The election is a month away yet, lots can happen and of course the people of the north can revert to type and carve the place up like the Balkins between Green/Orange sectarian lines.
I hope not, but I will have to wait till the count to see if my hope is in vain or not.

FrancieBrady

markodaly wrote: »

No way will the split be 11-7.
The DUP are going to lose seats in BS and probably BE. BN is going to be a dogfight.
SF looking very vunerable in Foyle, Fermanagh - South Tyrone and South Down looking at the latest polls.
The election is a month away yet, lots can happen and of course the people of the north can revert to type and carve the place up like the Balkins between Green/Orange sectarian lines.
I hope not, but I will have to wait till the count to see if my hope is in vain or not.

So unless SF lose seats, it's a Green - Orange carve up? But if the SDLP win a seat because SF stand aside, it is something else?

Mr.Nice Guy

Aiken struggled badly there. Carruthers tied him up in knots.

FrancieBrady

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Aiken struggled badly there. Carruthers tied him up in knots.

Waffler. Tom Elliott backing Remain? They sure are desperate for a seat.

markodaly

FrancieBrady wrote: »

So unless SF lose seats, it's a Green - Orange carve up? But if the SDLP win a seat because SF stand aside, it is something else?

I didnt say that.
I hope Alliance take a seat or two as well, as I do the UUP and the SDLP. I want more moderates elected.

The North continuing down the lines of Balkanising the North by voting either SF or DUP is not healthy. Both are on the extreme sides of the sectarian divide. You do not support either the DUP or SF so you should be happy with my comment.

FrancieBrady

markodaly wrote: »

I didnt say that.
I hope Alliance take a seat or two as well, as I do the UUP and the SDLP. I want more moderates elected.

The North continuing down the lines of Balkanising the North by voting either SF or DUP is not healthy. Both are on the extreme sides of the sectarian divide. You do not support either the DUP or SF so you should be happy with my comment.

Are you saying the SDLP have made a pact with an extreme sectarian party???

markodaly

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Are you saying the SDLP have made a pact with an extreme sectarian party???

Oh here we go, another epic Francie 'debate' is about to start.

No, Francie, that is not what I am saying, nor did I imply it. But please, elaborate, I know you dont need a 2nd invitation to tell us all your thoughts on the matter.