Northern Ireland Westminster General Election

FrancieBrady

circadian wrote: »

Dunno, I'd take my mother's word over claims on a twitter account. She makes a good point, why is someone from Sinn Fein heading to a known Sdlp house and asking if the fella that emigrated, who is still registered, is still away.

Well same sort of question back...would it not be incredibly stupid to be doing such a thing? Could you set yourself up for a sting operation any more beautifully?

Sorry, I just find 'bags stuffed full of pre-filled ballot papers' and SF knocking on doors openly asking what is effectively the competition something like this a bit spurious to say the least.
I hope your mum told him to mind his own business.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Chief Electoral Officer seems happy that the checks and balances in Proxy voting are adequate.

If the suggestion is that people are stuffing enough bogus electoral forms into ballot boxes then I fail to see why nobody has been caught doing it in a way big enough to swing an election.

SF make the same claims in close constituencies, I think most of it is sensational sour graping to be honest.

I don’t think it is as blatant as stuffing bogus electoral forms into ballot boxes. However, any proxy or postal system can be gamed,

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

I don’t think it is as blatant as stuffing bogus electoral forms into ballot boxes. However, any proxy or postal system can be gamed,

I would take the word of the CEO about the integrity of that system over a random person on the internet any day tbh.
From an assertion that it was at a 'level' high enough to swing an election, we went to doubling down on it to a climb down to it just being a personal opinion based on nothing other than perception and gossip.

The integrity of the system is important imo. Anyone making claims like this be they SF, DUP or random interneters should be required to back them up.

liamtech

Does anyone have a link/stream for tonights UTV election debate

NIMAN

Was in the north again today and some of the latest sf posters just say plainly

REJECT WESTMINSTER

or

REJECT BREXIT


don't see how voting for sf will make either of these happen.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I would take the word of the CEO about the integrity of that system over a random person on the internet any day tbh.
From an assertion that it was at a 'level' high enough to swing an election, we went to doubling down on it to a climb down to it just being a personal opinion based on nothing other than perception and gossip.

The integrity of the system is important imo. Anyone making claims like this be they SF, DUP or random interneters should be required to back them up.

The word of the CEO?

Let me see, would that be Sean FitzPatrick, Sean Quinn or John Delaney’s word?

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

The word of the CEO?

Let me see, would that be Sean FitzPatrick, Sean Quinn or John Delaney’s word?

Chief Electoral Officer...already linked to in the thread, had you read it.

blanch152

NIMAN wrote: »

Was in the north again today and some of the latest sf posters just say plainly

REJECT WESTMINSTER

or

REJECT BREXIT




don't see how voting for sf will make either of these happen.

They make the Tory campaign look multi-faceted and comprehensive.

liamtech

guys im real Sorry to be a annoying, but does anyone have a UTV online stream for tonights party leaders debate?

Its on at 8 o clock and im stranded in the house of someone with virgin media (no satellite dish )

searched online but previously some guys here managed a stream for the previous debates -

Thanks in advance

SafeSurfer

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I would take the word of the CEO about the integrity of that system over a random person on the internet any day tbh.
From an assertion that it was at a 'level' high enough to swing an election, we went to doubling down on it to a climb down to it just being a personal opinion based on nothing other than perception and gossip.

The integrity of the system is important imo. Anyone making claims like this be they SF, DUP or random interneters should be required to back them up.

A previous CEO, Pat Bradley has said election fraud in Northern Ireland is widespread and has been going on for years. Do you dismiss the word of this CEO?

I don’t get where you are seeing a climb down. One individual party alone brought 20 allegations of voter fraud to the PSNI. Where voters went to cast their ballots to find they had already been cast. This isn’t perception or gossip as you put it. This is voters being defrauded of their franchise and making a formal complaint to the police about it. It would have only taken 85 cases of voter fraud to swing the election.

You have claimed there was no evidence of voter fraud in the election in Foyle despite the evidence of voters having their votes stolen. Rather than dismissing these voters it should be of concern to you if the integrity of the system is as important to you as you claim.

FrancieBrady

liamtech wrote: »

guys im real Sorry to be a annoying, but does anyone have a UTV online stream for tonights party leaders debate?

Its on at 8 o clock and im stranded in the house of someone with virgin media (no satellite dish )

searched online but previously some guys here managed a stream for the previous debates -

Thanks in advance

Tried to find one but no luck.

FrancieBrady

SafeSurfer wrote: »

A previous CEO, Pat Bradley has said election fraud in Northern Ireland is widespread and has been going on for years. Do you dismiss the word of this CEO?

I don’t get where you are seeing a climb down. One individual party alone brought 20 allegations of voter fraud to the PSNI. Where voters went to cast their ballots to find they had already been cast. This isn’t perception or gossip as you put it. This is voters being defrauded of their franchise and making a formal complaint to the police about it. It would have only taken 85 cases of voter fraud to swing the election.

You have claimed there was no evidence of voter fraud in the election in Foyle despite the evidence of voters having their votes stolen. Rather than dismissing these voters it should be of concern to you if the integrity of the system is as important to you as you claim.

NO CEO has pointed to a 'level' of fraud sufficient to win an election in Foyle in 2017...which was the claim you made.

SafeSurfer

FrancieBrady wrote: »

NO CEO has pointed to a 'level' of fraud sufficient to win an election in Foyle in 2017...which was the claim you made.

You have stated that there is no evidence of any level of fraud in the Foyle election in 2017. This is untrue and is either a mistake or a lie on your part.

FrancieBrady

SafeSurfer wrote: »

You have stated that there is no evidence of any level of fraud in the Foyle election in 2017. This is untrue and is either a mistake or a lie on your part.

I am aware of the allegations...they happen all the time in close contests. That is all they are.

I can't go claiming that the DUP are corrupt because there are 'allegations'.

FrancieBrady

Any body see the start of the debate? Why is Arlene not there?

SafeSurfer

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I am aware of the allegations...they happen all the time in close contests. That is all they are.

I can't go claiming that the DUP are corrupt because there are 'allegations'.

If citizens go to a polling station intending to vote and they are unable to do so because their votes have already been cast, that is not an allegation, that is evidence of electoral fraud.

hotmail.com

The DUP representative is a light weight.

liamtech

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Any body see the start of the debate? Why is Arlene not there?

watching clips on twitter - seems they decided to roll out little pengally (ELP) instead - i would imagine its for two reasons - Arlene didnt do well at the last one of these group debate (2017) - and also it gets ELP some much needed publicity as she is probably gonna lose her seat - ELP is a little less aggressive than some of the alternatives

im RAGING im missing this - maybe someone will dump it on youtube later

FrancieBrady

SafeSurfer wrote: »

If citizens go to a polling station intending to vote and they are unable to do so because their votes have already been cast, that is not an allegation, that is evidence of electoral fraud.

That's anecdote, because nobody that I can see has officially shown that to have happened.
People made allegations that went nowhere.

I'm done with this. You made a claim and you have failed miserably to back it up with anything of substance.

SafeSurfer

FrancieBrady wrote: »

That's anecdote, because nobody that I can see has officially shown that to have happened.
People made allegations that went nowhere.

I'm done with this. You made a claim and you have failed miserably to back it up with anything of substance.

You made a claim that there was no fraud despite voters not being able to vote because their ballots were already cast.

Galwayguy35

It might be easier to hear what was being said if Naomi Long stopped shouting over everyone, no need for it because Mark Mallett is giving everyone a chance to get their point across.

FrancieBrady

liamtech wrote: »

watching clips on twitter - seems they decided to roll out little pengally (ELP) instead - i would imagine its for two reasons - Arlene didnt do well at the last one of these group debate (2017) - and also it gets ELP some much needed publicity as she is probably gonna lose her seat - ELP is a little less aggressive than some of the alternatives

im RAGING im missing this - maybe someone will dump it on youtube later

Her and Steve went at it aggressively enough.

You aren't missing much tbh. Usual stances. Long is very fortright and loud but both her and Eastwood are unconvincing on Brexit. O'Neill talking up the Dublin angle and EU as an antidote to taking seats in WM.

FrancieBrady

Damp squib of a debate. If you didn't know better Pengelly won it. She went for the high moral ground and was allowed stay there by the others. Aitkin hasn't the clout to get at her. O'Neill had the look of someone that knew her voters weren't gonna buy the DUP sthick anyway.

NIMAN

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Damp squib of a debate. If you didn't know better Pengelly won it. She went for the high moral ground and was allowed stay there by the others. Aitkin hasn't the clout to get at her. O'Neill had the look of someone that knew her voters weren't gonna buy the DUP sthick anyway.

It was disappointing, but I wasn't expecting much.

I don't have much time for MON, find her very hard to listen to. Just glad Arlene wasn't on as well.

Sometimes I wonder what NI would be like if Eastwood and Long were first and deputy first ministers.

liamtech

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Damp squib of a debate. If you didn't know better Pengelly won it. She went for the high moral ground and was allowed stay there by the others. Aitkin hasn't the clout to get at her. O'Neill had the look of someone that knew her voters weren't gonna buy the DUP sthick anyway.

doesnt sound great in fairness - ELP obviously won for the unionist side

how did eastwood fair against O Neill?

FrancieBrady

liamtech wrote: »

doesnt sound great in fairness - ELP obviously won for the unionist side

how did eastwood fair against O Neill?

Evens I would say. Eastwood actually looked a bit out of it. He's normally a very good debater. He struggled a bit. MON didn't get ruffled and looked very briefed on not getting into a slangin match. Long was looking across the panel like an angry mum looking for the manager. She is a bit hard to listen too tbh.

WhiteMan32

liamtech wrote: »

Does anyone have a link/stream for tonights UTV election debate

https://www.itv.com/news/utv/

FrancieBrady

Arlene is going to try the Lundy tack in the final few days to get the unionist vote out.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/arlene-foster-radio-4-today-interview-boris-johnson-general-election-hmrc-dup-a9238551.html

blanch152

http://www.irishnews.com/news/generalelection/2019/12/09/news/dup-will-lose-to-sdlp-in-south-belfast-but-beat-sinn-fe-in-in-north-belfast-poll-suggests-1785383/

Opinion poll predicts SDLP to gain two seats, one from Sinn Fein, the other from DUP. That is good news, with both sectarian parties losing seats. Sinn Fein are losing one overall, and the DUP only avoiding losing one by taking Sylvia Harmon's seat.

Still a while to go, and those changes aren't secured, but hopefully more will come to pass. Let us see what happens later in the week.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

http://www.irishnews.com/news/generalelection/2019/12/09/news/dup-will-lose-to-sdlp-in-south-belfast-but-beat-sinn-fe-in-in-north-belfast-poll-suggests-1785383/

Opinion poll predicts SDLP to gain two seats, one from Sinn Fein, the other from DUP. That is good news, with both sectarian parties losing seats. Sinn Fein are losing one overall, and the DUP only avoiding losing one by taking Sylvia Harmon's seat.

Still a while to go, and those changes aren't secured, but hopefully more will come to pass. Let us see what happens later in the week.

Interesting after last night's debate that Sam McBride was saying that anything less than two seats for the SDLP will likely spell the end for Eastwood and the controversial (within the SDLP) alliance with FF.

I think most will be happy initially as long as Remain parties take seats and any bloodletting will wait a while but I would have thought Eastwood would be given longer to try and resurrect the SDLP, and I wasn't aware how much distaste there was for the FF alliance within it.

WhiteMan32

Remember Andrew Neil briefly empty-chairing Johnson on BBC television last week.....by posing important questions that he wished the UK electorate to hear his responses to? On this morning's Radio Ulster, host Stephen Nolan opted to do the exact same with the DUP, after they continually refused to appear on his programme to have their party's election manifesto scrutinised. A few months back, the party took a collective decision not to be interviewed by Nolan due to their view that he was 'biased' on the coverage of RHI revelations!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000c465

Mr.Nice Guy

The DUP continued their boycott of the Nolan show - which they've been doing over their unhappiness with how he covered the RHI scandal - so he empty chaired them and went through the questions he wanted to ask.

When you hear everything laid out that they've done the last few years you wonder why anyone would vote for them. Their position is all over the place because as one of the contributors noted, they say they won't work with Corbyn but might be willing to work with Labour without him as leader, yet they ARE willing to work with Johnson whose deal they insist will jeopardise the Union.

markodaly

blanch152 wrote: »

http://www.irishnews.com/news/generalelection/2019/12/09/news/dup-will-lose-to-sdlp-in-south-belfast-but-beat-sinn-fe-in-in-north-belfast-poll-suggests-1785383/

Opinion poll predicts SDLP to gain two seats, one from Sinn Fein, the other from DUP. That is good news, with both sectarian parties losing seats. Sinn Fein are losing one overall, and the DUP only avoiding losing one by taking Sylvia Harmon's seat.

Still a while to go, and those changes aren't secured, but hopefully more will come to pass. Let us see what happens later in the week.

No gains from Alliance? That would be a pity. Still it will be good to see the SDLP make a comeback. UUP seems dead in the water. Real danger for them now to be irrelevant with the DUP being the only and main Unionist party.

All will be revealed in a few days.

liamtech

markodaly wrote: »

No gains from Alliance? That would be a pity. Still it will be good to see the SDLP make a comeback. UUP seems dead in the water. Real danger for them now to be irrelevant with the DUP being the only and main Unionist party.

All will be revealed in a few days.

I think North Belfast is going to be very close - far to close to write off for Sinn Fein

Rjd2

liamtech wrote: »

I think North Belfast is going to be very close - far to close to write off for Sinn Fein

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/constituencies/next-uk-general-election-constituencies/belfast-north

bookies can't call it and I agree. I'd be tempted to have a small flutter on any of the two if they were odds against that's how close it is.:o

FrancieBrady

A huge fall in the Leave vote overall and wins for Remain in those tight constituencies will send powerful messages to the SOS and to Unionists who think that No and Never are the answers going forward.

SF facilitating the SDLP and vice versa and their alignment with the aims of Dublin is a move that will strike terror into the heart of belligerent Unionism especially if it takes the seat of the most Brexiteer of them all, Nigel Dodds. You will see a more compliant DUP as a result of a hammering at this poll.

I think the Alliance might suffer the loss of their recent gains for stubbornly refusing to come of the fence on this most important of elections.

markodaly

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I think the Alliance might suffer the loss of their recent gains for stubbornly refusing to come of the fence on this most important of elections.

What fence is that?

FrancieBrady

markodaly wrote: »

What fence is that?

The one with a different future for northern Ireland on either side - in the EU or outside it.

The Alliance are too afraid to choose one or the other in my opinion and they might suffer as result...even suffer the most of any of the parties.

markodaly

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The one with a different future for northern Ireland on either side - in the EU or outside it.

The Alliance are too afraid to choose one or the other in my opinion and they might suffer as result...even suffer the most of any of the parties.

Alliance are firmly a remain party are they not? They choose that side.

They do not want to get stuck into the old sectarian mudslinging of SF/DUP, that is who they are and people will have to respect that and to be honest, that is why their vote share has increased.

NI will eventually have to get over the old sectarian headcount style of politics if it actually wants to embrace European style modernity. Alliance is one way to do that.

Dyr

Kinda funny that the people who whinge about sectarian headcounts are the same people who want NI to be locked into a sectarian headcount for perpetuity.

The only way NI will ever progress beyond sectarian headcounts is within an All Ireland context.

markodaly

Bambi wrote: »

Kinda funny that the people who whinge about sectarian headcounts are the same people who want NI to be locked into a sectarian headcount for perpetuity.

The only way NI will ever progress beyond sectarian headcounts is within an All Ireland context.

Can you elaborate please, on both points?

FrancieBrady

markodaly wrote: »

Alliance are firmly a remain party are they not? They choose that side.

They do not want to get stuck into the old sectarian mudslinging of SF/DUP, that is who they are and people will have to respect that and to be honest, that is why their vote share has increased.

NI will eventually have to get over the old sectarian headcount style of politics if it actually wants to embrace European style modernity. Alliance is one way to do that.

I think most know why their vote share has increased. Votes have been 'lent' to the Alliance.
I would expect many of those votes to go back to unionism this time as belligerent Unionism has made Brexit and this election, one about the constitutional issue. The UUP have seen that they can attack the DUP vote by making it about the 'Union' and a border in the Irish Sea.

It really has nothing to do with sectarian (Catholic v Protestant) headcounts, it's about the direction that NI wishes to travel in.

The Alliance have dithered on the core issue of this particular election and may pay a price for that. IMO no-man's land is not the place to be.

markodaly

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I think most know why their vote share has increased. Votes have been 'lent' to the Alliance.

What is your proof of this?

It really has nothing to do with sectarian (Catholic v Protestant) headcounts, it's about the direction that NI wishes to travel in.

Nonsense. NI is rife with sectarianism. North Belfast being the most obvious example.

The Alliance have dithered on the core issue of this particular election and may pay a price for that. IMO no-man's land is not the place to be.

What is the core issue of this election?

kerosene

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I think most know why their vote share has increased. Votes have been 'lent' to the Alliance.
I would expect many of those votes to go back to unionism this time as belligerent Unionism has made Brexit and this election, one about the constitutional issue. The UUP have seen that they can attack the DUP vote by making it about the 'Union' and a border in the Irish Sea.

It really has nothing to do with sectarian (Catholic v Protestant) headcounts, it's about the direction that NI wishes to travel in.

The Alliance have dithered on the core issue of this particular election and may pay a price for that. IMO no-man's land is not the place to be.

I disagree, the loyalists (bryson etc) have been trying to rise the unionist people into a frenzy with meetings all over the 6 counties, but they have been poorly attended. Reports of 2 or 300 at each event, a far cry from Paisley in the 80s.

I'd be happy to see the dup vote fall by 10%, it mightnt make a huge difference to the number of mps they have, but in future elections they will have more of a fight on their hands to hold their seats.

Danny Kinihan and Doug Beattie of the uup, probably wont do enough to take a dup seat this time, but if there is another election next year, the gap may be closed enough to make it competitive.

Alliance will pick up votes from both unionists and nationalists, there is a growing number of voters on both sides who are sick of green and orange politics and are turning to alliance. I was quite suprised by some of the people I was talking too suggested they would be voting Alliance.

Again I dont think it will translate into mp seats (bar Naomi Long, who has a good chance) but I would be suprised if their overall vote didnt go up.

kerosene

The sdlp likely to claim 2 seats, and possibly close the gap in south down, which would be a good election for them after recent horror shows. I think sinn feins overall vote will fall slightly, possibly gain north Belfast but lose Foyle.

FrancieBrady

markodaly wrote: »

What is your proof of this?

The Alliance's recent surge came primarily from traditionally unionist voters disillusioned with the DUP and the UUP stances.

Alliance’s growth in unionist votes shouldn’t be a surprise. Middle class, liberal voters that would have traditionally backed the Ulster Unionists are disillusioned with a party that changes its mind about its heart and soul every time the wind changes. The party tried to go in a more moderate direction under Mike Nesbitt and was roundly derided. It’s started sounding DUP lite under Robin Swann.

https://sluggerotoole.com/2019/05/04/alliance-party-gains-point-to-a-problem-within-unionism/

The UUP’s decline has been (part of) Alliance’s gain, and to me this speaks of an increasing number of unionists finding in Alliance the moderate party they’re looking for, leaving behind in the UUP a tighter core of unionists who are unwilling to transfer beyond the ‘unionist family’.

https://www.northernslant.com/if-unionism-wont-provide-for-soft-unionists-its-going-to-lose-them/

Nobody will be happier than me if the Alliance hold that swing btw, but I do think the unionist community are being scared into backing the 'union' on this one.
We shall see.

Nonsense. NI is rife with sectarianism. North Belfast being the most obvious example.

Areas of NI are rife with sectarianism, if you knew anything real about the place you would know it isn't 'rife across NI'.

What is the core issue of this election?

The direction NI wishes to travel in. Towards the path of isolation with the rest of the UK or continue the journey with the EU and the rest of the island of Ireland.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

A huge fall in the Leave vote overall and wins for Remain in those tight constituencies will send powerful messages to the SOS and to Unionists who think that No and Never are the answers going forward.

SF facilitating the SDLP and vice versa and their alignment with the aims of Dublin is a move that will strike terror into the heart of belligerent Unionism especially if it takes the seat of the most Brexiteer of them all, Nigel Dodds. You will see a more compliant DUP as a result of a hammering at this poll.

Are you now claiming the SDLP vote for Sinn Fein?

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I think the Alliance might suffer the loss of their recent gains for stubbornly refusing to come of the fence on this most important of elections.

I think you are making a serious mistake in confusing support for Remain as meaning support for a united Ireland.

The Alliance Party got 7.9% in the last general election in the North. Are you suggesting that they will lose these votes?

Mortelaro

Its likely the DUP will gain Fermanagh South Tyrone going back to London with 12 seats,they will hold their existing seats and gain Ms Hermons.

FrancieBrady

kerosene wrote: »

I disagree, the loyalists (bryson etc) have been trying to rise the unionist people into a frenzy with meetings all over the 6 counties, but they have been poorly attended. Reports of 2 or 300 at each event, a far cry from Paisley in the 80s.

I'd be happy to see the dup vote fall by 10%, it mightnt make a huge difference to the number of mps they have, but in future elections they will have more of a fight on their hands to hold their seats.

Go back as far as the Anglo Irish Agreement and you'll realise that Unionism has a track record of reacting too late and have to play catch-up. Nothing different here, they will react when Boris's deal goes through and we will have a period of Never Never Never and wrecking their own areas basically.

Hear Billy Hutchinson's pointed rebuke to Jamie etc: 'Who are they gonna fight?'

Danny Kinihan and Doug Beattie of the uup, probably wont do enough to take a dup seat this time, but if there is another election next year, the gap may be closed enough to make it competitive.

UUP need to find a decent leader and quick, I don't think there latest one is going to lead them to any revival tbh.

Alliance will pick up votes from both unionists and nationalists, there is a growing number of voters on both sides who are sick of green and orange politics and are turning to alliance. I was quite suprised by some of the people I was talking too suggested they would be voting Alliance.



Again I dont think it will translate into mp seats (bar Naomi Long, who has a good chance) but I would be suprised if their overall vote didnt go up.

I said at the time of their recent success that it remains to be seen if they are benefiting from vote loans or not.
This election is a massive test of that, and it will be fascinating to see. To me, where any gains are coming from will once again tell us if real change is happening.

liamtech

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I think most know why their vote share has increased. Votes have been 'lent' to the Alliance.
I would expect many of those votes to go back to unionism this time as belligerent Unionism has made Brexit and this election, one about the constitutional issue. The UUP have seen that they can attack the DUP vote by making it about the 'Union' and a border in the Irish Sea.

It really has nothing to do with sectarian (Catholic v Protestant) headcounts, it's about the direction that NI wishes to travel in.

The Alliance have dithered on the core issue of this particular election and may pay a price for that. IMO no-man's land is not the place to be.

markodaly wrote: »

What is your proof of this?




Nonsense. NI is rife with sectarianism. North Belfast being the most obvious example.



What is the core issue of this election?

Iv always felt that Northern Ireland's political divide is more complicated than simple sectarianism - its about Identity. Of which Northern Ireland tends to have 3

• Nationalist / Republican - Irish
• Unionist Loyalist - British
• Northern Irish

I agree with FrancieBrady, in that Alliance has received votes on loan in the past - especially when Naomi Long took a HOC Seat in 2010 - which was primarily as the expense of the DUP. Fast forward 5 years, and thanks to perceived nationalist bias in the Flag Argument (in which the Alliance genuinely tried to be balanced), and the Alliance were punished.

But my own view is that Alliance's core vote is those that Identify as neither Unionist or Nationalist - its the Northern Irish - and the demographics support this conclusion

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_parliamentary_constituencies_in_Northern_Ireland

(note - i realize this is from Wikipedia but the data is from several different sources, so if in doubt, check the wiki citations)

But demographics alone isnt enough to swing HOC seats to the Alliance - they need support from bother larger blocks too, and in most cases, especially now in this polarized election, they wont get it

In my view there are 2 bigger issues facing Alliance - The first is that if they co-operate with one side over another, they will end up being accused of sectarianism - Alliance is often referred to as SF's Useful Idiots, buy jamie Bryson, Jim Allister, and their ilk - the mere fact that SF and SDLP stood aside in East Belfast and elsewhere, to assist alliance, has been highlighted; and an argument put forth that Alliance are in league with Nationalists etc - a total smear of course

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-50475814

The second, is the same problem facing the entire UK - the antiquated FPTP system - in a proportional system Alliance would be VERY transfer friendly - and again dont take my word; look at the MLA elections and study where Alliance receive transfers from - they get noticeable amounts from both Unionists and Nationalists

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lagan_Valley_(Assembly_constituency)

But in FPTP - they are doomed to fail in the normal US v THEM election - neither Unionists or Nationalists can afford to lend votes - and the standing aside of SF/SDLP in East Belfast and other seats, is just a rallying call to Bryson/Allister/DUP to scream about Alliance being closet nationalists (which they arent - their origin is definitely more on the Unionist side of politics)

Northern Ireland has the most political cleavages of any region in the UK - Franciebrady mentions direction - which in my view is one component of several distinct cleavages;

Nationalist/Unionist
Left/Right
Leave/Remain
Liberal/Conservative
political/militant


Il be watching thursday with anticipation but i dont see the Alliance getting a seat - East Belfast is where they will get the highest vote, but sadly they wont touch the DUP - thats my view