Northern Ireland Westminster General Election

L1011

The debate is party leaders not sub-leaders basically. If it was it wouldn't be O'Neill either cause she's the Stormont leader not the Westminster leader.

Foster would love that if it was done that way, as it'd get her off it.

Nidgeweasel

Mary Lou more than a match for Carruthers so far.

liamtech

Nidgeweasel wrote: »

Mary Lou more than a match for Carruthers so far.

you beat me to it - most impressive

not quite as good as Eastwood last week
but better than both the Aiken and Long

Mr.Nice Guy

Agreed. Thought Mary Lou did well dealing with the questions.

markodaly

liamtech wrote: »

you beat me to it - most impressive

not quite as good as Eastwood last week
but better than both the Aiken and Long

It will hurt them though that a 'southener' is doing the interview, not someone who is local to NI.

BonnieSituation

markodaly wrote: »

It will hurt them though that a 'southener' is doing the interview, not someone who is local to NI.

As a Republican party they wouldn't be wont to be partitionist in their view of what constitutes a "local".

Exactly how will they be hurt?

FrancieBrady

BonnieSituation wrote: »

As a Republican party they wouldn't be wont to be partitionist in their view of what constitutes a "local".

Exactly how will they be hurt?

You got there before me. 'Local'

Mr.Nice Guy

There we go. Orange Order grand secretary Mervyn Gibson talking about 'civil disobedience' if Johnson's agreement passes in Westminster. The stirring up begins.

hotmail.com

Has it ever been confirmed how much NI got from the 2017 DUP deal with May?

markodaly

BonnieSituation wrote: »

As a Republican party they wouldn't be wont to be partitionist in their view of what constitutes a "local".

Exactly how will they be hurt?

As I mentioned, MLD is not from the north and has never run nor will ever run for Westminister elections. I know for many die hards it will not matter, but for some swing voters it will.
They should have put on Michelle O'Neil tbh.

BonnieSituation

markodaly wrote: »

As I mentioned, MLD is not from the north and has never run nor will ever run for Westminister elections. I know for many die hards it will not matter, but for some swing voters it will.
They should have put on Michelle O'Neil tbh.

You legitimately don't know what you're talking about.

FrancieBrady

markodaly wrote: »

As I mentioned, MLD is not from the north and has never run nor will ever run for Westminister elections. I know for many die hards it will not matter, but for some swing voters it will.
They should have put on Michelle O'Neil tbh.

Why would 'swing voters' have a problem with somebody from Ireland? You heard Carruthers as I did, 'we asked for a leader, and we got the leader'. SF do not hide the fact they are an all Irish party, whose previous leader was from Belfast and their current leader is from Dublin.

golfball37

hotmail.com wrote: »

Has it ever been confirmed how much NI got from the 2017 DUP deal with May?

I heard Emma LP say it was 1.5bn the other day that was actually received. Other sources say 1bn was the agreed amount and they haven't even drawn that down fully.

The_Fitz

markodaly wrote: »

As I mentioned, MLD is not from the north and has never run nor will ever run for Westminister elections. I know for many die hards it will not matter, but for some swing voters it will.
They should have put on Michelle O'Neil tbh.

Your logic is incorrect here.

I can state with confidence that anyone in the north voting for Sinn Fein will not be put off voting for them because (as you say) a 'southener' is speaking for them on TV.

blanch152

markodaly wrote: »

As I mentioned, MLD is not from the north and has never run nor will ever run for Westminister elections. I know for many die hards it will not matter, but for some swing voters it will.
They should have put on Michelle O'Neil tbh.

I disagree with you on it influencing Sinn Fein voters. Anyone who votes Sinn Fein has to swallow their recent enough past, as well as the PSNI assessment of who is their real leader, so having someone up from the South to talk on their behalf isn't going to affect that vote.

However, where it might have some influence is on moderate unionists thinking of moving away from the DUP to Alliance. I hope it doesn't affect that, but having Mary-Lou up there sends the wrong message to moderate unionists. Then again, that seems to be the point of the current Sinn Fein strategy - drive the unionists into a corner rather than reach out.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

I disagree with you on it influencing Sinn Fein voters. Anyone who votes Sinn Fein has to swallow their recent enough past, as well as the PSNI assessment of who is their real leader, so having someone up from the South to talk on their behalf isn't going to affect that vote.

However, where it might have some influence is on moderate unionists thinking of moving away from the DUP to Alliance. I hope it doesn't affect that, but having Mary-Lou up there sends the wrong message to moderate unionists. Then again, that seems to be the point of the current Sinn Fein strategy - drive the unionists into a corner rather than reach out.

Plaintive and poignant defence of unionists there. 'Driven into a corner' by those nasty nationalists.

cameramonkey

Official in the six say they've processed over 235,000 applications from members of public seeking to be placed on Register since start of 2019. This figure is equal to almost 30% of those who generally turn out to vote.

prawnsambo

cameramonkey wrote: »

Official in the six say they've processed over 235,000 applications from members of public seeking to be placed on Register since start of 2019. This figure is equal to almost 30% of those who generally turn out to vote.

That's interesting. A bit like over the water where there has also been large registration numbers. I wonder are the polls picking this up.

cameramonkey

prawnsambo wrote: »

That's interesting. A bit like over the water where there has also been large registration numbers. I wonder are the polls picking this up.

Will be interesting. 30% in an area could make many seats a lottery, would be interesting to see the figures broken down by area.


I would imagine that the majority those that are coming onto the electoral roll are young Fenians but I could be wrong. If this is part of the demographic shift that is happening in the six then the DUP could be in for a rough day.



This election is getting interesting.

hotmail.com

golfball37 wrote: »

I heard Emma LP say it was 1.5bn the other day that was actually received. Other sources say 1bn was the agreed amount and they haven't even drawn that down fully.

This is all very suspicious. If I were the opposition, I'd be focusing on this.

I bet it's way less than what's being made out.

FrancieBrady

cameramonkey wrote: »

Will be interesting. 30% in an area could make many seats a lottery, would be interesting to see the figures broken down by area.


I would imagine that the majority those that are coming onto the electoral roll are young Fenians but I could be wrong. If this is part of the demographic shift that is happening in the six then the DUP could be in for a rough day.



This election is getting interesting.

Could just as easily be a Unionist vote coming out too. Interesting either way.

Kermit.de.frog

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Could just as easily be a Unionist vote coming out too. Interesting either way.

Think I read unionists/loyalists are holding local clinics to get people to register to vote.

FrancieBrady

Looks like SF have recovered their ability to get the vote out in the by-elections, wonder if that will be repeated in the north.

L1011

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Looks like SF have recovered their ability to get the vote out in the by-elections, wonder if that will be repeated in the north.

Except in Fingal!

(edit: I fixed that spelling twice and it still went wrong)

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Looks like SF have recovered their ability to get the vote out in the by-elections, wonder if that will be repeated in the north.

Very hard to tell. Ward got 24% of the vote, up from the 22.7% that O’Broin got, but this was less than half the number of votes, given the exceptionally low turnout.

If you think that the Sinn Fein vote is generally growing, then their effort to get the vote out was no better or worse than any other party. If you believe their vote is generally shrinking, as reflected in Fingal and Wexford, as well as in the opinion polls, then there certainly was an exceptional effort in getting the vote out in Dublin Mid-West.

Of more interest and worth studying is the transfer pattern, and how successful they were in picking up transfers. They seem to be less transfer toxic, which should help in keeping seats at the next election.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

Very hard to tell. Ward got 24% of the vote, up from the 22.7% that O’Broin got, but this was less than half the number of votes, given the exceptionally low turnout.

If you think that the Sinn Fein vote is generally growing, then their effort to get the vote out was no better or worse than any other party. If you believe their vote is generally shrinking, as reflected in Fingal and Wexford, as well as in the opinion polls, then there certainly was an exceptional effort in getting the vote out in Dublin Mid-West.

Of more interest and worth studying is the transfer pattern, and how successful they were in picking up transfers. They seem to be less transfer toxic, which should help in keeping seats at the next election.

I said at the time of the locals that they seemed to have relaxed on their fabled ability to get a vote out. They seem re-energised and you never gave your opinion on them being able to get the vote out in the north.

I think this by-election couldn't have gone better for them in respect to re-energising them.

SafeSurfer

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I said at the time of the locals that they seemed to have relaxed on their fabled ability to get a vote out. They seem re-energised and you never gave your opinion on them being able to get the vote out in the north.

I think this by-election couldn't have gone better for them in respect to re-energising them.

It will be interesting to see how energised Wards’s supporters will feel when he loses his seat in the next GE after being forced to resign as councillor.

markodaly

cameramonkey wrote: »

Will be interesting. 30% in an area could make many seats a lottery, would be interesting to see the figures broken down by area.


I would imagine that the majority those that are coming onto the electoral roll are young Fenians but I could be wrong. If this is part of the demographic shift that is happening in the six then the DUP could be in for a rough day.



This election is getting interesting.

Young most definitely, but no reason to think they would be Fenians.

Brexit has sharpened some minds I think. Those that may benefit from this new wave of voter registration would be, the Greens, PBP and Alliance first and foremost.

Maybe even UUP or SDLP.

I don't think they are going to benefit the established two big green/orange parties of the SF/DUP.
They pretty much maxed out their vote the last time out.

sid waddell

wrong thread

FrancieBrady

markodaly wrote: »

Young most definitely, but no reason to think they would be Fenians.

Brexit has sharpened some minds I think. Those that may benefit from this new wave of voter registration would be, the Greens, PBP and Alliance first and foremost.

Maybe even UUP or SDLP.

I don't think they are going to benefit the established two big green/orange parties of the SF/DUP.
They pretty much maxed out their vote the last time out.

I doubt it is Greens or PBPers that are suddenly motivated to register as typically they are engaged with politics already.

Seems to me it is definitely a surge in Leave and Remain single issue voters.

If they are young I would again hazard a guess they will be mainly looking to vote for remain parties.

PBP want to leave the EU.