Northern Ireland Westminster General Election

Joe_ Public

30% of the 2017 turnout is an extraordinary total, something significant must be going on. In England the corresponding figure is probably around 10-15% or in that region and thats after a sustained and vigorous remain campaign and record levels of applications.

CrabRevolution

During the last Stormont election it was noted during the election day that turnout was uncharacteristically high for an Assembly vote and commentators suggested that this was a bad sign for the unionist parties, as they tend to do better when the turnout is lower.

As it turned out (no pun intended) the election had the highest turnout in 20 years, and delivered the first assembly without a unionist majority of seats.

If the turnout in NI swells for this upcoming election like is being speculated here I would be more confident in successes for SF, the SDLP and Alliance.

Nidgeweasel

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Could just as easily be a Unionist vote coming out too. Interesting either way.

I'd be inclined to think it's unionist aswell.

Unless I'm reading in the wrong places, there definitely appears to be a ground swell of unionist activism. We know what they're like when they suddenly think the union is under siege and that type of nonsense.

It's going to be very interesting.

SharpshooterTom

Nidgeweasel wrote: »

I'd be inclined to think it's unionist aswell.

Unless I'm reading in the wrong places, there definitely appears to be a ground swell of unionist activism. We know what they're like when they suddenly think the union is under siege and that type of nonsense.

It's going to be very interesting.

They've been like this for every election for the past 50 years? I mean honestly when's it NOT been siege mentality amongst unionism in any election recently?

The flag protests energised unionism in the mid 2010s but nationalism has bounced back since the RHI scandal in 2017.

Nationalism didn't take much of an interest in the Brexit referendum, turnout was lower in nationalist constituencies given it was seen as just an English/Tory fantasy at first, but now since the Irish border has come at the forefront of brexit Irish nationalism has something to get off the couch for now.

Given also some of the toxic anti Irish rhetoric from the UK/Tory press over the past 3 years and real possibility of a hard border I think you'll see nationalist voters turnout for this quite strongly more than usual.

FrancieBrady

Arlene's turn tonight on The View.

Nidgeweasel

ThomasFlynn wrote: »

They've been like this for every election for the past 50 years? I mean honestly when's it NOT been siege mentality amongst unionism in any election recently?

The flag protests energised unionism in the mid 2010s but nationalism has bounced back since the RHI scandal in 2017.

Nationalism didn't take much of an interest in the Brexit referendum, turnout was lower in nationalist constituencies given it was seen as just an English/Tory fantasy at first, but now since the Irish border has come at the forefront of brexit Irish nationalism has something to get off the couch for now.

Given also some of the toxic anti Irish rhetoric from the UK/Tory press over the past 3 years and real possibility of a hard border I think you'll see nationalist voters turnout for this quite strongly more than usual.

Not to the extent as they have now with the Betrayal Act and all that nonsense though, but I see your point.

Time will tell I suppose and I hope i'm wrong!

Arlene on with Carruthers tonight. He really needs to be asking serious questions of her and her lamentable party.

liamtech

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Arlene's turn tonight on The View.

T minus 15 minutes until Arlene Foster gets her entrails handed to her.... LIVE .. on BBC 1 Northern Ireland The View.. with mark carruthers

Do we know its definitely her?? Cause i have this whacky (Malcom Tucker inspired) theory that it will be Nigel Dodds - THE DUP LEADER who is not Foster, from the HOC who can avoid having to talk about RHI, Stormont, or just how completely screwed fosters career is

Mr.Nice Guy

Been looking forward to this for weeks. Suspect Mark Carruthers has saved his best grilling for last.

liamtech

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Been looking forward to this for weeks. Suspect Mark Carruthers has saved his best grilling for last.

The term that comes to mind for tonight's interview


vivisection: the practice of performing operations on live animals for the purpose of experimentation or scientific research, or public humiliation

honestly i cannot see how she gets through this intact - catchphrases to include

• i reject that (to every accusation of DUP ineptitude)
• the dup will wield significant influence (when ever majorities or numbers are brought up)
• we have had a positive influence (when discussing the disastrous last few years)
• or MPs will always have influence (when discussing how screwed they are)
• there is much we can do
• Boris Johnsons deal will be alterred
• Pam Nationalist Republican conspiracy involving the alliance, SF-IRA, SDLP, the Greens, the Alliance, anyone who isnt DUP - that is who is responsible for this
• This is why we need DUP Representatives (when discussing seats)

FrancieBrady

Not expecting much of this tbh. She will be well schooled and is actually quite good at the buttoned lip interview. She do plenty of the familiar high moral ground stuff.

liamtech

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Not expecting much of this tbh. She will be well schooled and is actually quite good at the buttoned lip interview. She do plenty of the familiar high moral ground stuff.

So far if i was to rank these

1. Colm Eastwood - by a mile
2. Mary Lou McDonald - done very well
3. Naomi Long - survived but only just
4. Steven Aiken - very poor

So TBH its just a question of where Foster fits in to this score board

of course thats my opinion anyway

liamtech

Crashing - Mark Carruthers is a fantastic interviewer - the numbers remark was hilarious - she backed down so so quickly when it looked like he was about to spell out how screwed they are - no chance of gains - every chance of losses

she is brazening it out - at present she is not bottom of the table - in my book - just above Aiken - still time on the clock

EDIT - that cough and gasp for water - was pretty telling - on the ropes

Mr.Nice Guy

She did reasonably well for the first 5-10 minutes but she's struggling now.

hotmail.com

Arlene doesn't do detail very well.

liamtech

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Not expecting much of this tbh. She will be well schooled and is actually quite good at the buttoned lip interview. She do plenty of the familiar high moral ground stuff.

Brazening it out alright - beating Aiken on points in my book - he was inept - way way out of his league

boggerman1

Arlene getting roasted on a cash for ash fire again.car crash

Nidgeweasel

She is contemptible.

Mr.Nice Guy

I'm sure Arlene is thrilled to see Sam McBride, author of Burned, on the panel.

FrancieBrady

As I thought. The holier than thou stance fallen back on again and again. She lectures people when under pressure. That won't lose her any votes.

Mr.Nice Guy

You could tell Foster was coached not to react and to keep her cool. She weathered the early questions on being left high and dry by Johnson fairly well, but you could see her struggling to hide her irritation when questioned about the party speaking for NI. She was shaky when the issue of health came up. The coughing didn't look great. Her disdain for the questions shone through and she's clearly one of those people that doesn't like having to explain decisions.

Her demeanour was very defensive and cagey and this was very much about getting through it unscathed rather than making an impassioned pitch to voters. There was very little enthusiasm on show.

Overall, she did better than Aiken and those who are receptive to the DUP message will still be after it.

Think the best performers in these interviews have been Eastwood and McDonald. Aiken was by far the worst. Thought Long had a shocker by her standards.

liamtech

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

You could tell Foster was coached not to react and to keep her cool. She weathered the early questions on being left high and dry by Johnson fairly well, but you could see her struggling to hide her irritation when questioned about the party speaking for NI. She was shaky when the issue of health came up. The coughing didn't look great. Her disdain for the questions shone through and she's clearly one of those people that doesn't like having to explain decisions.

Her demeanour was very defensive and cagey and this was very much about getting through it unscathed rather than making an impassioned pitch to voters. There was very little enthusiasm on show.

Overall, she did better than Aiken and those who are receptive to the DUP message will still be after it.

Think the best performers in these interviews have been Eastwood and McDonald. Aiken was by far the worst. Thought Long had a shocker by her standards.

Cannot disagree with any of that - Aiken was disastrous - very disappointing from a challenging Unionist party - that is, a unionist party attempting to unseat Unionism's incumbent

Long was not good by her own standards but there were less dodges in terms of her responses - so i think she edges ahead of foster

Foster adopted that holier than thou attitude - didnt do well but could have been worse - still contemptible from what is effectively the Christian Right

Anyway for me the finale table is

Eastwood
McDonald
Long
Foster
Aiken

Rodin

I like Naomi Long, but she has no business talking about health. Ever.

ancapailldorcha

Rodin wrote: »

I like Naomi Long, but she has no business talking about health. Ever.

No more ad homina like this please.

FrancieBrady

liamtech wrote: »

Cannot disagree with any of that - Aiken was disastrous - very disappointing from a challenging Unionist party - that is, a unionist party attempting to unseat Unionism's incumbent

Long was not good by her own standards but there were less dodges in terms of her responses - so i think she edges ahead of foster

Foster adopted that holier than thou attitude - didnt do well but could have been worse - still contemptible from what is effectively the Christian Right

Anyway for me the finale table is

Eastwood
McDonald
Long
Foster
Aiken

I think the Alliance will suffer in this election losing the gains they made. Long did badly in her interview because Carruthers was quickly able to expose the restrictions of the corner that they had boxed themselves into.

It is not an election to be sitting on a fence.

SharpshooterTom

Micheál Martin campaigned with Colum Eastwood yesterday in Derry.
https://twitter.com/columeastwood/status/1202606256625799174

Even though Sinn Fein are by far the most popular nationalist party here, would it be correct in saying that most people in the south actually would prefer the SDLP to Sinn Fein?

NIMAN

Driving through the Bogside the other day I noticed posters on lamp posts saying "vote sinn fein and oppose Tory cuts " .

Not sure how voting for a party which doesn't sit in Westminster, and which hasn't sat in local government for 1000+ days, is going to help fight the Tories.

cameramonkey

ThomasFlynn wrote: »

Micheál Martin campaigned with Colum Eastwood yesterday in Derry.
https://twitter.com/columeastwood/status/1202606256625799174

Even though Sinn Fein are by far the most popular nationalist party here, would it be correct in saying that most people in the south actually would prefer the SDLP to Sinn Fein?

He says in his tweet "For Derry to reach its full potential Magee needs expanded." He sounds like an English footballer with that word usage, is it even proper English? Should it not be "needs to be expanded"?

liamtech

ThomasFlynn wrote: »

Micheál Martin campaigned with Colum Eastwood yesterday in Derry.
https://twitter.com/columeastwood/status/1202606256625799174

Even though Sinn Fein are by far the most popular nationalist party here, would it be correct in saying that most people in the south actually would prefer the SDLP to Sinn Fein?

So the Fianna Fail leader meets his SDLP counterpart (obviously i am aware of the partnership between FF and SDLP) - but yes they meet a week away from a UK election

So thats Foyle in the bag for Sinn Fein by my reckoning

Still dont understand what the SDLP gain from FF - honestly consider myself ignorant of this so if anyone wants to educate me on the reasoning of it, and the goal behind it - please do

FrancieBrady

liamtech wrote: »

So the Fianna Fail leader meets his SDLP counterpart (obviously i am aware of the partnership between FF and SDLP) - but yes they meet a week away from a UK election

So thats Foyle in the bag for Sinn Fein by my reckoning

Still dont understand what the SDLP gain from FF - honestly consider myself ignorant of this so if anyone wants to educate me on the reasoning of it, and the goal behind it - please do

Both of them see SF as their most immediate threat.

liamtech

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Both of them see SF as their most immediate threat.

By my reckoning they are weakening one another by having this cross border pact - but thats my opinion - and the SDLP are more weakened out of the two