Northern Ireland Westminster General Election

WhiteMan32

Remember Andrew Neil briefly empty-chairing Johnson on BBC television last week.....by posing important questions that he wished the UK electorate to hear his responses to? On this morning's Radio Ulster, host Stephen Nolan opted to do the exact same with the DUP, after they continually refused to appear on his programme to have their party's election manifesto scrutinised. A few months back, the party took a collective decision not to be interviewed by Nolan due to their view that he was 'biased' on the coverage of RHI revelations!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000c465

Mr.Nice Guy

The DUP continued their boycott of the Nolan show - which they've been doing over their unhappiness with how he covered the RHI scandal - so he empty chaired them and went through the questions he wanted to ask.

When you hear everything laid out that they've done the last few years you wonder why anyone would vote for them. Their position is all over the place because as one of the contributors noted, they say they won't work with Corbyn but might be willing to work with Labour without him as leader, yet they ARE willing to work with Johnson whose deal they insist will jeopardise the Union.

markodaly

blanch152 wrote: »

http://www.irishnews.com/news/generalelection/2019/12/09/news/dup-will-lose-to-sdlp-in-south-belfast-but-beat-sinn-fe-in-in-north-belfast-poll-suggests-1785383/

Opinion poll predicts SDLP to gain two seats, one from Sinn Fein, the other from DUP. That is good news, with both sectarian parties losing seats. Sinn Fein are losing one overall, and the DUP only avoiding losing one by taking Sylvia Harmon's seat.

Still a while to go, and those changes aren't secured, but hopefully more will come to pass. Let us see what happens later in the week.

No gains from Alliance? That would be a pity. Still it will be good to see the SDLP make a comeback. UUP seems dead in the water. Real danger for them now to be irrelevant with the DUP being the only and main Unionist party.

All will be revealed in a few days.

liamtech

markodaly wrote: »

No gains from Alliance? That would be a pity. Still it will be good to see the SDLP make a comeback. UUP seems dead in the water. Real danger for them now to be irrelevant with the DUP being the only and main Unionist party.

All will be revealed in a few days.

I think North Belfast is going to be very close - far to close to write off for Sinn Fein

Rjd2

liamtech wrote: »

I think North Belfast is going to be very close - far to close to write off for Sinn Fein

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/constituencies/next-uk-general-election-constituencies/belfast-north

bookies can't call it and I agree. I'd be tempted to have a small flutter on any of the two if they were odds against that's how close it is.:o

FrancieBrady

A huge fall in the Leave vote overall and wins for Remain in those tight constituencies will send powerful messages to the SOS and to Unionists who think that No and Never are the answers going forward.

SF facilitating the SDLP and vice versa and their alignment with the aims of Dublin is a move that will strike terror into the heart of belligerent Unionism especially if it takes the seat of the most Brexiteer of them all, Nigel Dodds. You will see a more compliant DUP as a result of a hammering at this poll.

I think the Alliance might suffer the loss of their recent gains for stubbornly refusing to come of the fence on this most important of elections.

markodaly

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I think the Alliance might suffer the loss of their recent gains for stubbornly refusing to come of the fence on this most important of elections.

What fence is that?

FrancieBrady

markodaly wrote: »

What fence is that?

The one with a different future for northern Ireland on either side - in the EU or outside it.

The Alliance are too afraid to choose one or the other in my opinion and they might suffer as result...even suffer the most of any of the parties.

markodaly

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The one with a different future for northern Ireland on either side - in the EU or outside it.

The Alliance are too afraid to choose one or the other in my opinion and they might suffer as result...even suffer the most of any of the parties.

Alliance are firmly a remain party are they not? They choose that side.

They do not want to get stuck into the old sectarian mudslinging of SF/DUP, that is who they are and people will have to respect that and to be honest, that is why their vote share has increased.

NI will eventually have to get over the old sectarian headcount style of politics if it actually wants to embrace European style modernity. Alliance is one way to do that.

Dyr

Kinda funny that the people who whinge about sectarian headcounts are the same people who want NI to be locked into a sectarian headcount for perpetuity.

The only way NI will ever progress beyond sectarian headcounts is within an All Ireland context.

markodaly

Bambi wrote: »

Kinda funny that the people who whinge about sectarian headcounts are the same people who want NI to be locked into a sectarian headcount for perpetuity.

The only way NI will ever progress beyond sectarian headcounts is within an All Ireland context.

Can you elaborate please, on both points?

FrancieBrady

markodaly wrote: »

Alliance are firmly a remain party are they not? They choose that side.

They do not want to get stuck into the old sectarian mudslinging of SF/DUP, that is who they are and people will have to respect that and to be honest, that is why their vote share has increased.

NI will eventually have to get over the old sectarian headcount style of politics if it actually wants to embrace European style modernity. Alliance is one way to do that.

I think most know why their vote share has increased. Votes have been 'lent' to the Alliance.
I would expect many of those votes to go back to unionism this time as belligerent Unionism has made Brexit and this election, one about the constitutional issue. The UUP have seen that they can attack the DUP vote by making it about the 'Union' and a border in the Irish Sea.

It really has nothing to do with sectarian (Catholic v Protestant) headcounts, it's about the direction that NI wishes to travel in.

The Alliance have dithered on the core issue of this particular election and may pay a price for that. IMO no-man's land is not the place to be.

markodaly

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I think most know why their vote share has increased. Votes have been 'lent' to the Alliance.

What is your proof of this?

It really has nothing to do with sectarian (Catholic v Protestant) headcounts, it's about the direction that NI wishes to travel in.

Nonsense. NI is rife with sectarianism. North Belfast being the most obvious example.

The Alliance have dithered on the core issue of this particular election and may pay a price for that. IMO no-man's land is not the place to be.

What is the core issue of this election?

kerosene

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I think most know why their vote share has increased. Votes have been 'lent' to the Alliance.
I would expect many of those votes to go back to unionism this time as belligerent Unionism has made Brexit and this election, one about the constitutional issue. The UUP have seen that they can attack the DUP vote by making it about the 'Union' and a border in the Irish Sea.

It really has nothing to do with sectarian (Catholic v Protestant) headcounts, it's about the direction that NI wishes to travel in.

The Alliance have dithered on the core issue of this particular election and may pay a price for that. IMO no-man's land is not the place to be.

I disagree, the loyalists (bryson etc) have been trying to rise the unionist people into a frenzy with meetings all over the 6 counties, but they have been poorly attended. Reports of 2 or 300 at each event, a far cry from Paisley in the 80s.

I'd be happy to see the dup vote fall by 10%, it mightnt make a huge difference to the number of mps they have, but in future elections they will have more of a fight on their hands to hold their seats.

Danny Kinihan and Doug Beattie of the uup, probably wont do enough to take a dup seat this time, but if there is another election next year, the gap may be closed enough to make it competitive.

Alliance will pick up votes from both unionists and nationalists, there is a growing number of voters on both sides who are sick of green and orange politics and are turning to alliance. I was quite suprised by some of the people I was talking too suggested they would be voting Alliance.

Again I dont think it will translate into mp seats (bar Naomi Long, who has a good chance) but I would be suprised if their overall vote didnt go up.

kerosene

The sdlp likely to claim 2 seats, and possibly close the gap in south down, which would be a good election for them after recent horror shows. I think sinn feins overall vote will fall slightly, possibly gain north Belfast but lose Foyle.

FrancieBrady

markodaly wrote: »

What is your proof of this?

The Alliance's recent surge came primarily from traditionally unionist voters disillusioned with the DUP and the UUP stances.

Alliance’s growth in unionist votes shouldn’t be a surprise. Middle class, liberal voters that would have traditionally backed the Ulster Unionists are disillusioned with a party that changes its mind about its heart and soul every time the wind changes. The party tried to go in a more moderate direction under Mike Nesbitt and was roundly derided. It’s started sounding DUP lite under Robin Swann.

https://sluggerotoole.com/2019/05/04/alliance-party-gains-point-to-a-problem-within-unionism/

The UUP’s decline has been (part of) Alliance’s gain, and to me this speaks of an increasing number of unionists finding in Alliance the moderate party they’re looking for, leaving behind in the UUP a tighter core of unionists who are unwilling to transfer beyond the ‘unionist family’.

https://www.northernslant.com/if-unionism-wont-provide-for-soft-unionists-its-going-to-lose-them/

Nobody will be happier than me if the Alliance hold that swing btw, but I do think the unionist community are being scared into backing the 'union' on this one.
We shall see.

Nonsense. NI is rife with sectarianism. North Belfast being the most obvious example.

Areas of NI are rife with sectarianism, if you knew anything real about the place you would know it isn't 'rife across NI'.

What is the core issue of this election?

The direction NI wishes to travel in. Towards the path of isolation with the rest of the UK or continue the journey with the EU and the rest of the island of Ireland.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

A huge fall in the Leave vote overall and wins for Remain in those tight constituencies will send powerful messages to the SOS and to Unionists who think that No and Never are the answers going forward.

SF facilitating the SDLP and vice versa and their alignment with the aims of Dublin is a move that will strike terror into the heart of belligerent Unionism especially if it takes the seat of the most Brexiteer of them all, Nigel Dodds. You will see a more compliant DUP as a result of a hammering at this poll.

Are you now claiming the SDLP vote for Sinn Fein?

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I think the Alliance might suffer the loss of their recent gains for stubbornly refusing to come of the fence on this most important of elections.

I think you are making a serious mistake in confusing support for Remain as meaning support for a united Ireland.

The Alliance Party got 7.9% in the last general election in the North. Are you suggesting that they will lose these votes?

Mortelaro

Its likely the DUP will gain Fermanagh South Tyrone going back to London with 12 seats,they will hold their existing seats and gain Ms Hermons.

FrancieBrady

kerosene wrote: »

I disagree, the loyalists (bryson etc) have been trying to rise the unionist people into a frenzy with meetings all over the 6 counties, but they have been poorly attended. Reports of 2 or 300 at each event, a far cry from Paisley in the 80s.

I'd be happy to see the dup vote fall by 10%, it mightnt make a huge difference to the number of mps they have, but in future elections they will have more of a fight on their hands to hold their seats.

Go back as far as the Anglo Irish Agreement and you'll realise that Unionism has a track record of reacting too late and have to play catch-up. Nothing different here, they will react when Boris's deal goes through and we will have a period of Never Never Never and wrecking their own areas basically.

Hear Billy Hutchinson's pointed rebuke to Jamie etc: 'Who are they gonna fight?'

Danny Kinihan and Doug Beattie of the uup, probably wont do enough to take a dup seat this time, but if there is another election next year, the gap may be closed enough to make it competitive.

UUP need to find a decent leader and quick, I don't think there latest one is going to lead them to any revival tbh.

Alliance will pick up votes from both unionists and nationalists, there is a growing number of voters on both sides who are sick of green and orange politics and are turning to alliance. I was quite suprised by some of the people I was talking too suggested they would be voting Alliance.



Again I dont think it will translate into mp seats (bar Naomi Long, who has a good chance) but I would be suprised if their overall vote didnt go up.

I said at the time of their recent success that it remains to be seen if they are benefiting from vote loans or not.
This election is a massive test of that, and it will be fascinating to see. To me, where any gains are coming from will once again tell us if real change is happening.

liamtech

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I think most know why their vote share has increased. Votes have been 'lent' to the Alliance.
I would expect many of those votes to go back to unionism this time as belligerent Unionism has made Brexit and this election, one about the constitutional issue. The UUP have seen that they can attack the DUP vote by making it about the 'Union' and a border in the Irish Sea.

It really has nothing to do with sectarian (Catholic v Protestant) headcounts, it's about the direction that NI wishes to travel in.

The Alliance have dithered on the core issue of this particular election and may pay a price for that. IMO no-man's land is not the place to be.

markodaly wrote: »

What is your proof of this?




Nonsense. NI is rife with sectarianism. North Belfast being the most obvious example.



What is the core issue of this election?

Iv always felt that Northern Ireland's political divide is more complicated than simple sectarianism - its about Identity. Of which Northern Ireland tends to have 3

• Nationalist / Republican - Irish
• Unionist Loyalist - British
• Northern Irish

I agree with FrancieBrady, in that Alliance has received votes on loan in the past - especially when Naomi Long took a HOC Seat in 2010 - which was primarily as the expense of the DUP. Fast forward 5 years, and thanks to perceived nationalist bias in the Flag Argument (in which the Alliance genuinely tried to be balanced), and the Alliance were punished.

But my own view is that Alliance's core vote is those that Identify as neither Unionist or Nationalist - its the Northern Irish - and the demographics support this conclusion

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_parliamentary_constituencies_in_Northern_Ireland

(note - i realize this is from Wikipedia but the data is from several different sources, so if in doubt, check the wiki citations)

But demographics alone isnt enough to swing HOC seats to the Alliance - they need support from bother larger blocks too, and in most cases, especially now in this polarized election, they wont get it

In my view there are 2 bigger issues facing Alliance - The first is that if they co-operate with one side over another, they will end up being accused of sectarianism - Alliance is often referred to as SF's Useful Idiots, buy jamie Bryson, Jim Allister, and their ilk - the mere fact that SF and SDLP stood aside in East Belfast and elsewhere, to assist alliance, has been highlighted; and an argument put forth that Alliance are in league with Nationalists etc - a total smear of course

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-50475814

The second, is the same problem facing the entire UK - the antiquated FPTP system - in a proportional system Alliance would be VERY transfer friendly - and again dont take my word; look at the MLA elections and study where Alliance receive transfers from - they get noticeable amounts from both Unionists and Nationalists

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lagan_Valley_(Assembly_constituency)

But in FPTP - they are doomed to fail in the normal US v THEM election - neither Unionists or Nationalists can afford to lend votes - and the standing aside of SF/SDLP in East Belfast and other seats, is just a rallying call to Bryson/Allister/DUP to scream about Alliance being closet nationalists (which they arent - their origin is definitely more on the Unionist side of politics)

Northern Ireland has the most political cleavages of any region in the UK - Franciebrady mentions direction - which in my view is one component of several distinct cleavages;

Nationalist/Unionist
Left/Right
Leave/Remain
Liberal/Conservative
political/militant


Il be watching thursday with anticipation but i dont see the Alliance getting a seat - East Belfast is where they will get the highest vote, but sadly they wont touch the DUP - thats my view

FrancieBrady

Mortelaro wrote: »

Its likely the DUP will gain Fermanagh South Tyrone going back to London with 12 seats,they will hold their existing seats and gain Ms Hermons.

The DUP are not standing in FST.

darem93

Mortelaro wrote: »

Its likely the DUP will gain Fermanagh South Tyrone going back to London with 12 seats,they will hold their existing seats and gain Ms Hermons.

They aren't running in FST, as they stood aside for Tom Elliott from the UUP.

It is a swing seat between him and Michelle Gildernew, so he could very well take it unfortunately.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

Are you now claiming the SDLP vote for Sinn Fein?

Yes, where the SDLP have stood aside. And vice versa.

I think you are making a serious mistake in confusing support for Remain as meaning support for a united Ireland.

I didn't say that.

I do think that if people align themselves with the rest of the island then they would be more easily convinced of the benefits of a UI though.

The Alliance Party got 7.9% in the last general election in the North. Are you suggesting that they will lose these votes?

I think they could potentially be set back.

Nidgeweasel

Mortelaro wrote: »

Its likely the DUP will gain Fermanagh South Tyrone going back to London with 12 seats,they will hold their existing seats and gain Ms Hermons.

:rolleyes:

FrancieBrady

darem93 wrote: »

They aren't running in FST, as they stood aside for Tom Elliott from the UUP.

It is a swing seat between him and Michelle Gildernew, so he could very well take it unfortunately.

Elliot has run a very bad, low key campaign. Is a black sheep in the UUP as he is trenchantly Brexiteer. The UUP are somewhat in disarray organisationally in FST and they are at loggerheads over local animosities with the DUP. Again it will ber fascinating to see how it plays out.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I didn't say that.

I do think that if people align themselves with the rest of the island then they would be more easily convinced of the benefits of a UI though.

That is exactly what I mean. You are conflating support for Remain in Northern Ireland with openness towards a UI. However, unionist remain voters see themselves as akin to Lib Dems and Labour in the UK and have no desire for a UI which they see as a completely separate, distinct and unthinkable idea.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I think they could potentially be set back.

They got 8.6% in the 2015 general election. Where you might be getting confused is that in the local elections they got 11.51%. I would be amazed if they repeated that, but any result over 7.9% is a good day, and anything over 8.6% is a great day.

Nidgeweasel

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Elliot has run a very bad, low key campaign. Is a black sheep in the UUP as he is trenchantly Brexiteer. The UUP are somewhat in disarray organisationally in FST and they are at loggerheads over local animosities with the DUP. Again it will ber fascinating to see how it plays out.

I was shown one of his leaflets over the weekend. Laughable.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

That is exactly what I mean. You are conflating support for Remain in Northern Ireland with openness towards a UI. However, unionist remain voters see themselves as akin to Lib Dems and Labour in the UK and have no desire for a UI which they see as a completely separate, distinct and unthinkable idea.

Which means we are both 'conflating'.

Who is right remains to be seen. To my eye, looking at the data, rejection of a UI is softening quite dramatically in soft and moderate unionism. They are not thinking of their futures in strictly 'Unionist' terms anymore. They were 'convinced' to do that.

They got 8.6% in the 2015 general election. Where you might be getting confused is that in the local elections they got 11.51%. I would be amazed if they repeated that, but any result over 7.9% is a good day, and anything over 8.6% is a great day.

I think Alliance themselves would be quite disappointed if there isn't further significant growth.

I think tbh it is important to point out to you that you weren't so picky at the time though in pointing out a difference between local and general election trends.

FrancieBrady

Nidgeweasel wrote: »

I was shown one of his leaflets over the weekend. Laughable.

I heard anecdotally that they cannot get any significant amounts of canvassers out. Pretty bad optics too having to coax Elliot out of retirement to run.

markodaly

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Areas of NI are rife with sectarianism, if you knew anything real about the place you would know it isn't 'rife across NI'.

Yes, that is why the whole place is divided into Green/Orange electorates.

The direction NI wishes to travel in. Towards the path of isolation with the rest of the UK or continue the journey with the EU and the rest of the island of Ireland.

The biggest issue on the minds of the voters is actually the health service according to the LucidTalk poll.
One would think Brexit also features, as shown by the poll.

Less and fewer people care about the constitutional position of the North