Northern Ireland Westminster General Election

liamtech

I think there is a BBC debate on tonight BTW - for Northern Ireland - which should be interesting

markodaly

blanch152 wrote: »

They got 8.6% in the 2015 general election. Where you might be getting confused is that in the local elections they got 11.51%. I would be amazed if they repeated that, but any result over 7.9% is a good day, and anything over 8.6% is a great day.

Well, they are polling at 15% at the moment so, in all likelihood, they will smash the 10% barrier. They in all likelihood will outpoll the UUP.

darem93

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Elliot has run a very bad, low key campaign. Is a black sheep in the UUP as he is trenchantly Brexiteer. The UUP are somewhat in disarray organisationally in FST and they are at loggerheads over local animosities with the DUP. Again it will ber fascinating to see how it plays out.

Funnily enough I did notice his election posters went up very late in the campaign. Michelle Gildernew's were up for weeks before his started appearing. Not that that really means anything in terms of the result, but it does show there seems to be a lack of organisation behind the scenes.

awec

markodaly wrote: »

Well, they are polling at 15% at the moment so, in all likelihood, they will smash the 10% barrier. They in all likelihood will outpoll the UUP.

The UUP are finished. The past decade has just been the long goodbye.

blanch152

markodaly wrote: »

Well, they are polling at 15% at the moment so, in all likelihood, they will smash the 10% barrier. They in all likelihood will outpoll the UUP.

That would be a great result and a brilliant outcome for Northern Ireland. If the SDLP can take two seats as well, we will be seeing the rise of the moderate middle again.

I think that some of those suggesting a fall in Alliance support are engaged in wishful thinking.

Mortelaro

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The DUP are not standing in FST.

DUP,UUP
All the same really

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

That would be a great result and a brilliant outcome for Northern Ireland. If the SDLP can take two seats as well, we will be seeing the rise of the moderate middle again.

I think that some of those suggesting a fall in Alliance support are engaged in wishful thinking.

The wishful thinking here is that you are ignoring a de facto pact that may see the SDLP's Claire Hanna take one of those seats because SF voters will lend her the vote and vice versa with Finucane if he wins.
Foyle may tip back to the SDLP again and that seesaw may happen for many electoral cycles to come.
You are furiously conflating here while a few posts ago you were criticising me for doing it.

darem93

Some appalling stuff here from the DUP in South Belfast.

https://twitter.com/dfoy106/status/1204101483450576903

Like where do you even begin? So it's "sectarian" for the SDLP and Sinn Fein to enter a pact but no problem for the DUP and UUP to enter into one. Also "stealing the seat from Unionism" - it's not Unionism's seat to steal in the first place.

It's always the same drivel with them, when in trouble turn to blaming "themmuns" in order to scare people into voting.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The wishful thinking here is that you are ignoring a de facto pact that may see the SDLP's Claire Hanna take one of those seats because SF voters will lend her the vote and vice versa with Finucane if he wins.
Foyle may tip back to the SDLP again and that seesaw may happen for many electoral cycles to come.
You are furiously conflating here while a few posts ago you were criticising me for doing it.

Let us await the results, no point in getting the excuses in early.

I expect a rise in the vote for SDLP and the Alliance. I expect a fall in the vote for the DUP and SF. Regardless of seats, that will be a good outcome for Northern Ireland.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

Let us await the results, no point in getting the excuses in early.

I expect a rise in the vote for SDLP and the Alliance. I expect a fall in the vote for the DUP and SF. Regardless of seats, that will be a good outcome for Northern Ireland.

No blanch, you won't be allowed to ignore the facts.

This is an election about Brexit and for many the Union (as the leaflet above shows plainly), votes will be lent all over the place.
Extrapolating results into something that aligns with your legendary bias on here is just silly.

The results in my opinion will show a healthier appetite for Remain than the 2016 referendum and that is a 'good' result for all of us on this island.

I don't care who delivers it, the SDLP, SF or Alliance, even the UUP if they take votes off the DUP.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

No blanch, you won't be allowed to ignore the facts.

This is an election about Brexit and for many the Union (as the leaflet above shows plainly), votes will be lent all over the place.
Extrapolating results into something that aligns with your legendary bias on here is just silly.

The results in my opinion will show a healthier appetite for Remain than the 2016 referendum and that is a 'good' result for all of us on this island.

I don't care who delivers it, the SDLP, SF or Alliance, even the UUP if they take votes off the DUP.

I won't ignore the facts, I will compare the outcome to the 2015 and 2017 elections to see where we are, after all the 2017 election occurred after the referendum and was all about Brexit too.

I won't spin a bad result either that votes were "lent" elsewhere.

golfball37

darem93 wrote: »

Some appalling stuff here from the DUP in South Belfast.

https://twitter.com/dfoy106/status/1204101483450576903

Like where do you even begin? So it's "sectarian" for the SDLP and Sinn Fein to enter a pact but no problem for the DUP and UUP to enter into one. Also "stealing the seat from Unionism" - it's not Unionism's seat to steal in the first place.

It's always the same drivel with them, when in trouble turn to blaming "themmuns" in order to scare people into voting.

Its Politics and its specifically aimed at voters in that ward. I don't see anything wrong in it. Distasteful yes but I wouldn't get upset over it.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

I won't ignore the facts, I will compare the outcome to the 2015 and 2017 elections to see where we are, after all the 2017 election occurred after the referendum and was all about Brexit too.

I won't spin a bad result either that votes were "lent" elsewhere.

You just tried it.

Bottom line...Claire Hanna will be elected if SF voters lend their votes. John Finucane will be elected if SDLP voters lend their votes.

There were no pacts in the 2017 election. :rolleyes:

Again, the only 'bad' result here for me would be no losses for the Brexiteer party.

The_Fitz

blanch152 wrote: »

Let us await the results, no point in getting the excuses in early.

I expect a rise in the vote for SDLP and the Alliance. I expect a fall in the vote for the DUP and SF. Regardless of seats, that will be a good outcome for Northern Ireland.

SDLP are going to get SF votes in South Belfast.
SF will get SDLP votes in North Belfast (albeit hardly any)
UUP will get some SF/SDLP votes in South Antrim.

There is vote lending all over the shop.

If SF don't drop their vote share on paper it would be some sort of miracle for them.

An Ciarraioch

markodaly wrote: »

Well, they are polling at 15% at the moment so, in all likelihood, they will smash the 10% barrier. They in all likelihood will outpoll the UUP.

Lucid Talk party share polling, with others/undecideds and without:

https://twitter.com/LucidTalk/status/1204352180804820998

4068ac1elhodqr

kerosene wrote: »

The sdlp likely to claim 2 seats, and possibly close the gap in south down, which would be a good election for them after recent horror shows. I think sinn feins overall vote will fall slightly, possibly gain north Belfast but lose Foyle.

Agree with this, and there may be particular value (5.0) in the markets with SDLP for S.D. Only 2.5k in it, and SF will also loose votes to Aontú from the older or more conservative anti-ab & anti-gm folks, and anyone in public services or on a nhs waiting list (thousands of folks) will not support them this time.

They (SF) have shortened for NBel, 1.91 so may do well there, but drifted in Foyle 2.63. Yes their overall vote will be reduced this somewhat special (brexit) time, but revert back to growth in future events.

FrancieBrady

Oakley Short Lung wrote: »

Agree with this, and there may be particular value (5.0) in the markets with SDLP for S.D. Only 2.5k in it, and SF will also loose votes to Aontú from the older or more conservative anti-ab & anti-gm folks, and anyone in public services or on a nhs waiting list (thousands of folks) will not support them this time.

They (SF) have shortened for NBel, 1.91 so may do well there, but drifted in Foyle 2.63. Yes their overall vote will be reduced this somewhat special (brexit) time, but revert back to growth in future events.

More fascinated by this than ever. For the SDLP to gain that amount would they not have to be showing a + figure in the polls? Their vote is falling in the two polls posted above.

I am not disagreeing with your view, just raising a question about the polling which seems off to me.
I too think SF's vote will fall overall this time.

An Ciarraioch

Electoral Calculus projects DUP 10, SF 6, SDLP 2. However, Alliance only trail the DUP by 0.2% in North Down, while North Belfast and Foyle are also marginal:

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/conlist_ni.html

4068ac1elhodqr

FrancieBrady wrote: »

More fascinated by this than ever. For the SDLP to gain that amount would they not have to be showing a + figure in the polls? Their vote is falling in the two polls posted above.

I am not disagreeing with your view, just raising a question about the polling which seems off to me.
I too think SF's vote will fall overall this time.

Any vote not for SF is a + vote for the SDLP in these areas, even if it goes to one of the smaller parties: Alliance, Aontú and so on.

This is a special anti-brexit event, so SF would expect to take some loss, only to regain in more 'normal' future events. A temporary blimp.

One factor to watch however this time, and perhaps going forward: is that in recent times SF have leaned too far to the left. Which will cause some real damage with older folks (who enjoy a walk out in the severe storms regardless for a chit-chat, howya and gossip at the polling stations). Aontú may well benefit from this trend. Saying that, they need better market positioning if want any longer-term growth.

kerosene

Oakley Short Lung wrote: »

Agree with this, and there may be particular value (5.0) in the markets with SDLP for S.D. Only 2.5k in it, and SF will also loose votes to Aontú from the older or more conservative anti-ab & anti-gm folks, and anyone in public services or on a nhs waiting list (thousands of folks) will not support them this time.

They (SF) have shortened for NBel, 1.91 so may do well there, but drifted in Foyle 2.63. Yes their overall vote will be reduced this somewhat special (brexit) time, but revert back to growth in future events.

I still think Chris Hazard will hold onto the seat, he is quite a strong candidate and is involved in local gaa and football clubs and will attract votes outside of the hardcore sf circle. Sdlp will expect to close the gap, which until recently was a safe seat for them but I'd still expect Hazard to pull through.

If I was looking for a sneaky outside bet, I'd have a few quid on either Doug Beattie or Danny Kinihan, there has to be a backlash of sorts within unionism against the dup. There is no chance of sf or sdlp claiming a victory in these constituencies, so the unionist voters can make a strong statement, without jeopardising a unionist seat.

Possibly wishful thinking on my behalf, but I honestly think the average run of the mill unionist, must be sick to the back teeth of the dup at this stage and somewhere along the line there has to be consequences.

Mr.Nice Guy

Arlene Foster was interviewed on BBC Talkback today for an hour taking questions. She denied she's boycotting the Nolan show despite it being put to her that Sammy Wilson said as much. Mostly softballs thrown her way early on, and I'm pretty sure one of the callers that snuck in was a plant ("I used to vote Alliance but now I'm for the DUP because they're siding with nationalists. You're doing a great job" etc. Yeah right.) Got a bit tougher near the end with one caller telling her she made a balls of things by not stepping aside temporarily when asked, and she got very defensive when the host William Crawley put it to her that she had sent legal letters to Sam McBride over his book, Burned.

Can listen to it here from 4:30 in:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000c451

FrancieBrady

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Arlene Foster was interviewed on BBC Talkback today for an hour taking questions. She denied she's boycotting the Nolan show despite it being put to her that Sammy Wilson said as much. Mostly softballs thrown her way early on, and I'm pretty sure one of the callers that snuck in was a plant ("I used to vote Alliance but now I'm for the DUP because they're siding with nationalists. You're doing a great job" etc. Yeah right.) Got a bit tougher near the end with one caller telling her she made a balls of things by not stepping aside temporarily when asked, and she got very defensive when the host William Crawley put it to her that she had sent legal letters to Sam McBride over his book, Burned.

Can listen to it here from 4:30 in:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000c451

'You made a complete b***s of it'.

Not sure she is convincing anyone but her most hardened supporters with that interview.

They have a peculiar way of sounding as the highest people up the moral mountain.

4068ac1elhodqr

kerosene wrote: »

I still think Chris Hazard will hold onto the seat, he is quite a strong candidate and is involved in local gaa and football clubs and will attract votes outside of the hardcore sf circle. Sdlp will expect to close the gap, which until recently was a safe seat for them but I'd still expect Hazard to pull through.


Normally..., however this is all about the final brexit pull-push and fine details. That area prefers the border (if any) way at sea and soft, certainly not hard on their doorstep (63% remainers), Only SDLP can offer influence under these pressing conditions.



It will be very close 20,328(-) vs 17,882(+) {2017}, and indeed and could either way, but 5.0 is strong market value.

kerosene wrote: »

If I was looking for a sneaky outside bet, I'd have a few quid on either Doug Beattie or Danny Kinihan, there has to be a backlash of sorts within unionism against the dup. There is no chance of sf or sdlp claiming a victory in these constituencies, so the unionist voters can make a strong statement, without jeopardising a unionist seat.

Too much of a margin (6,000) and thus low value 7.0 for the risk backing UUP. That Upper Bann, should've seen SDLP stand aside (in return for SF to stand down in SD), then SF might actually have a chance assuming AP would also grow.

FrancieBrady

BBC debate starts 9pm

Mr.Nice Guy

Foster not taking part. Donaldson will be representing the DUP instead. He's been poor the last few times I've seen him on television.

BonnieSituation

golfball37 wrote: »

Its Politics and its specifically aimed at voters in that ward. I don't see anything wrong in it. Distasteful yes but I wouldn't get upset over it.

That's not even the point.

liamtech

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Foster not taking part. Donaldson will be representing the DUP instead. He's been poor the last few times I've seen him on television.

He was very poor here

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9vHnTlsPsfE

TBH i watched the UTV debate and was not that impressed by Little-Pengally

IMHO Foster being absent from two televised debates, really is telling. If anyone watched the DUP Conference, they might agree with me- she seemed very wobbly and emotional (in a bad way as opposed to flag waving

Donaldson is very poor so i cannot see him winning - of course it probably doesnt matter - those that Vote DUP will be voting DUP regardless

Does anyone know if this is on front of an audience?? If it is, what are the chances of bryson showing up!

davycc

9 till 10 is all the info my t.v. is giving. Sorry can't be more helpful

NIMAN

Another shocking turn in Foyle to highlight potential dodgy dealings.

https://www.bbc.com/news/election-2019-50732660

I think its fairly clear who the finger is being pointed at.

davycc

Misread your question. It's definitely in front of a live studio audience. Liam tech