Northern Ireland Westminster General Election

kerosene

darem93 wrote: »

My massively Republican workmate told me today that she voted for Alliance this morning. It did shock me a bit as she knows how tight the seat is between Gildernew and Elliott.

A few people recently suggested to me they would be voting Alliance, a couple of them in particular suprised me.

The results in the next 24 hours really are intriguing, if the overall dup vote doesn't take at least a 10% hit (regardless of what seats they take), then there really is no hope.

SharpshooterTom

So are we all voting today?

On my way to vote for the Alliance in East Belfast.

liamtech

https://twitter.com/JamieBrysonCPNI/status/1204906822110523392

Phase one was presumably

• banners, banners, banners
• Highlighting the true nature of the 'Pan nationalist republican alliance' (SF, SDLP, Alliance, UUP, CCNI, EU, ROI, Elvis, BBC, Stephen Nolan, )
• more banners
• Twitter

Curious to see what 'Phase 2' is - because if the torys get their majority, i think the DUP and Loyalist/Unionism is out of options

FrancieBrady

liamtech wrote: »

https://twitter.com/JamieBrysonCPNI/status/1204906822110523392

Phase one was presumably

• banners, banners, banners
• Highlighting the true nature of the 'Pan nationalist republican alliance' (SF, SDLP, Alliance, UUP, CCNI, EU, ROI, Elvis, BBC, Stephen Nolan, )
• more banners
• Twitter

Curious to see what 'Phase 2' is - because if the torys get their majority, i think the DUP and Loyalist/Unionism is out of options

If polls are to be believed they have gotten the 'Union' vote out.

What they do to stop Boris and his WA if Boris gets his majority will be interesting though.

johnnyskeleton

kerosene wrote: »

A few people recently suggested to me they would be voting Alliance, a couple of them in particular suprised me.

The results in the next 24 hours really are intriguing, if the overall dup vote doesn't take at least a 10% hit (regardless of what seats they take), then there really is no hope.

In my admittedly simplistic understanding of NI politics, a vote for the Alliance party is something of a protest vote, but it is a protest against sectarianism, bitter entrenchment and the unwillingness of either side to compromise.

Wouldn't it be amazing if they won a few seats. Naomi Long appears to be the only real contender and she is still way off, even with Republican support in Belfast East

BonnieSituation

North Down is my bet to be Alliance's best chance.

SharpshooterTom

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

In my admittedly simplistic understanding of NI politics, a vote for the Alliance party is something of a protest vote, but it is a protest against sectarianism, bitter entrenchment and the unwillingness of either side to compromise.

Wouldn't it be amazing if they won a few seats. Naomi Long appears to be the only real contender and she is still way off, even with Republican support in Belfast East

Republican support in East Belfast is absolutely miniscule. Sinn Fein got 2.1% and SDLP 0.4% in 2017.

East Belfast and North Down are the two biggest unionist seats in Northern Ireland.

johnnyskeleton

BonnieSituation wrote: »

North Down is my bet to be Alliance's best chance.

Possibly. Shame Sylvia Hermon is stepping down. She's not a bad sort!

johnnyskeleton

ThomasFlynn wrote: »

Republican support in East Belfast is absolutely miniscule. Sinn Fein got 2.1% and SDLP 0.4% in 2017.

East Belfast and North Down are the two biggest unionist seats in Northern Ireland.

I know. But they have publicly said they weren't running to give her a better shot at getting in. That could equally lose her votes I suppose, but hopefully not.

4068ac1elhodqr

Personal expectation is for both DUP & SF to suffer losses in this special brexit-related event
Only real gain for SF will be in:
N.Bel price shortened again down to 1.73 (my estimate is 75% chance)

SDLP to take Foyle 1.4 (85%)
SDLP to take S.Down 5.0 (55%)

Less certain but..:
E.Bel Alliance might have a chance 2.88 (50%)
N.Down Alliance 2.8 (50%)
S.Antrim UUP 2.7 (50%)

Key indicator of any larger swing, would be if UUP get close in U.Bann 7.0. Very unlikely (30%), but interesting just to watch if early live markets should become available.

kerosene

Oakley Short Lung wrote: »

Personal expectation is for both DUP & SF to suffer losses in this special brexit-related event
Only real gain for SF will be in:
N.Bel price shortened again down to 1.73 (my estimate is 75% chance)

SDLP to take Foyle 1.4 (85%)
SDLP to take S.Down 5.0 (55%)

Less certain but..:
E.Bel Alliance might have a chance 2.88 (50%)
N.Down Alliance 2.8 (50%)
S.Antrim UUP 2.7 (50%)

Key indicator of any larger swing, would be if UUP get close in U.Bann 7.0. Very unlikely (30%), but interesting just to watch if early live markets should become available.

The reason I would give the uup a decent chance in the likes of south antrim and upper bann, is that it is a free chance for the unionist voter to protest or vent their anger at the dup, safe in the knowledge the seat will not slide to Sinn fein, sdlp or alliance.

I might be overestimating the hostility from some in unionism towards the dup, but I really do think in these constituencies if there is a protest vote, then it is likely to happen here.

4068ac1elhodqr

kerosene wrote: »

The reason I would give the uup a decent chance in the likes of south antrim and upper bann, is that it is a free chance for the unionist voter to protest or vent their anger at the dup, safe in the knowledge the seat will not slide to Sinn fein, sdlp or alliance.
I might be overestimating the hostility from some in unionism towards the dup, but I really do think in these constituencies if there is a protest vote, then it is likely to happen here.

To be fair looking at 2015 it was somewhat close between the two, but looking at 2017, they (UUP) would actually need to triple their numbers (+14,000 ticks) which is a very big ask, reflected in the higher odds of 7.0 (still too short).

Whereas looking at SD there is only 2.5k for SDLP to play catch up @5.0, and a new alternative to SF also exists there with very high % remainers.

kerosene

Oakley Short Lung wrote: »

To be fair looking at 2015 it was somewhat close between the two, but looking at 2017, they (UUP) would actually need to triple their numbers (+14,000 ticks) which is a very big ask, reflected in the higher odds of 7.0 (still too short).

Whereas looking at SD there is only 2.5k for SDLP to play catch up @5.0, and a new alternative to SF also exists there with very high % remainers.

I suppose south down was a sdlp safe seat for approx 20 years+. Margaret Ritchie was a poor mp, and taking a seat in the house of lords wouldn't go down well.

Sinn Fein have a strong candidate and is popular locally and I'd expect him to hold on but wouldn't be shocked either if the sdlp nicked it. Perhaps an election too early though.

I think they would be happy to close the gap and pick up the 2 seats they are favourite for.

4068ac1elhodqr

kerosene wrote: »

I suppose south down was a sdlp safe seat for approx 20 years+. Margaret Ritchie was a poor mp, and taking a seat in the house of lords wouldn't go down well.
Sinn Fein have a strong candidate and is popular locally and I'd expect him to hold on but wouldn't be shocked either if the sdlp nicked it. Perhaps an election too early though.
I think they would be happy to close the gap and pick up the 2 seats they are favourite for.

Personalities aren't so important for this unique event, a blocking shot at Tory-Dup will matter more for this one time for most people with a border in plain sight.

Aontú will also cream off SF's eldery (50+) mass-goers, many who would reject all the recent changes to GM&Abortion outright. As others widely comment, Hardline SF have actually become too soft and woke, perhaps some equilibrium is due.

BonnieSituation

The Guardian showing how much thought Brits give to the geography of Ireland:
"Sinn Fein’s vice president, Michelle O’Neill leaves after casting her vote at St Patrick’s Primary School in Clonoe, west of Belfast"

Same earlier when Foster voted:
"DUP leader Arlene Foster arrives at a polling station in Enniskillen."

SharpshooterTom

Really ugly atmosphere going on in North Belfast, undoubtedly the most entrenched sectarian part of the country. The DUP seemingly make a big deal over Sean Kelly canvessing for Finucane. Here's their twitter account and their retweets.

https://twitter.com/JordanQG2019/status/1204788950205976577
https://twitter.com/JordanQG2019/status/1204722838466387968
https://twitter.com/NigelDoddsDUP/status/1204510135554625536
https://twitter.com/JordanQG2019/status/1204395729445408768

Gutter politics at its worst.

BonnieSituation

Ruth DE doing her bit to foment the bigotry!

liamtech

BonnieSituation wrote: »

The Guardian showing how much thought Brits give to the geography of Ireland:
"Sinn Fein’s vice president, Michelle O’Neill leaves after casting her vote at St Patrick’s Primary School in Clonoe, west of Belfast"

Same earlier when Foster voted:
"DUP leader Arlene Foster arrives at a polling station in Enniskillen."

Im sorry to reduce the chat, but i roared laughing at this

I suppose Clonoe is TECHNICALLY West of Belfast:D:pac:

FrancieBrady

liamtech wrote: »

Im sorry to reduce the chat, but i roared laughing at this

I suppose Clonoe is TECHNICALLY West of Belfast:D:pac:

Not getting the Enniskillen one. Is that not her constituency?

BonnieSituation

liamtech wrote: »

Im sorry to reduce the chat, but i roared laughing at this

I suppose Clonoe is TECHNICALLY West of Belfast:D:pac:

It's also west of Moscow. Lough Neagh tends to remove Belfast as a geographic identifier I would have thought.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Not getting the Enniskillen one. Is that not her constituency?

She voted in Brookeborough Aghalun. :P

FrancieBrady

BonnieSituation wrote: »

She voted in Brookeborough.

Fair enough!

liamtech

BonnieSituation wrote: »

It's also west of Moscow. Lough Neagh tends to remove Belfast as a geographic identifier I would have thought.



She voted in Brookeborough.

Oh god i cant stop laughing! :pac::D

Belfast, west of Stockholm. And Dublin, west of London

But it does go back to the idea that GB has not a clue about Northern Ireland (or its geography seemingly :pac:).

I assume we all remember the 2017 Election situation - One of the most googled questions - 'Who are the DUP?'

The BBC had to run a series of programs explaining who they were - crazy stuff - (must stop laughing - MUST STOP LAUGHING LIAMO!)

NIMAN

Am I the only one who reads Jamie Brysons tweets in his voice?

liamtech

NIMAN wrote: »

Am I the only one who reads Jamie Brysons tweets in his voice?

Your not helping me stop laughing Niman! I just typed a response in Phonetically correct Bryson - but thought better of it i dont wanna get a ban on election day!:pac::D

On Bryson - I think the more he tweets today, is an indication of how risky this election is for the DUP -

-Little Pengelly is looking like a loss
-Dodds is in SERIOUS trouble in North Belfast, with the bookies having them even last i checked
-North down is a chance to at least take a seat - but it depends on where Lady Hermon's vote base moves -

Its going to be an interesting night, and il be torn between watching BBCNI's coverage, and the more GB wide results

golfball37

I reckon the DUP will hold all 10 and gain North Down despite the incessent coverage saying they are in trouble here there and everywhere.

liamtech

golfball37 wrote: »

I reckon the DUP will hold all 10 and gain North Down despite the incessent coverage saying they are in trouble here there and everywhere.

You think Emma Little Pengelly is going to beat Claire Hanna in south Belfast, AND that Dodds keeps North Belfast?

What gives you that impression?

Mr.Nice Guy

I'd be surprised if they get 11. I think they will be returned with 10. Lose South Belfast but gain North Down.

I'd love Dodds to be ousted but I think he's so important to the DUP that they'll do everything they can to get that unionist vote out. Finucane might get within a few hundred of him though.

4068ac1elhodqr

Dup 1.91 have wider (average) odds than SF 1.73 to gain N.Bel.
Either the (many) books are wrong, or more likely, there will be a drop in support for Dup there.
Reckon it's the latter.

SharpshooterTom

Turnout already passed 40% at 5pm in Finaghy which means Belfast constituencies might smash pass 70%+.

https://twitter.com/ElectionsNI/status/1205173827606663169

An Ciarraioch

Oakley Short Lung wrote: »

Dup 1.91 have wider (average) odds than SF 1.73 to gain N.Bel.
Either the (many) books are wrong, or more likely, there will be a drop in support for Dup there.
Reckon it's the latter.

Paddy Power has long had Finucane as the (extremely narrow) favourite there.