Northern Ireland Westminster General Election

circadian · 14-12-2019 11:07am

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Well I live in the real world and I think that despite all the high moral ground 'advice' about what it 'should' be. On the ground among those that will be doing the convincing or who need convincing it will inevitably be about Green and Orange.
I don't see anything wrong about that btw as long as the debate does not stray into areas of force or oppression.

The Alliance try to nobly pretend that that issue is not still raging in NI. As did the SDLP to a large extent until John Hume met it head on and tried to address it and find some common ground and equality.

Ah right, I didn't realise I was living in fairy land where huge political decisions aren't binary and without nuance.

Moderate unionists need convincing. It won't be a green and orange argument for them, it'll be an economic and quality of life one. Yes there will be questions around culture and how they are represented in a United Ireland but ultimately moderate Unionists are more concerned about putting food on the table, heath care and education. Just like the rest of us. Brexit had shown us this already and it explains the dip in the DUP numbers and growth in Alliance and Sdlp.

beggars_bush · 14-12-2019 11:18am

There won't be a UI referendum within the next 20 years, so it's pointless wasting political energy or capital on it

14-12-2019 11:36am

beggars_bush wrote: »

There won't be a UI referendum within the next 20 years, so it's pointless wasting political energy or capital on it

The way things are moving and the speed they are occurring that's a bold assumption.

FrancieBrady · 14-12-2019 11:37am

circadian wrote: »

Ah right, I didn't realise I was living in fairy land where huge political decisions aren't binary and without nuance.

Moderate unionists need convincing. It won't be a green and orange argument for them, it'll be an economic and quality of life one. Yes there will be questions around culture and how they are represented in a United Ireland but ultimately moderate Unionists are more concerned about putting food on the table, heath care and education. Just like the rest of us. Brexit had shown us this already and it explains the dip in the DUP numbers and growth in Alliance and Sdlp.

The DUP lost support because they were blamed for a border in the Irish Sea. i.e separating NI from the 'Union'.
The mess they created of that was continually pointed out by the UUP and the Alliance in their campaigns. Long was extremely critical of the DUP for that 'treachery' in the TV debates...i.e. she was happy enough to go after the disillusioned DUP/'Orange' vote when it suited her, on GREEN/ORANGE lines.
That's what I mean by the 'real world'.

14-12-2019 12:19pm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The DUP lost support because they were blamed for a border in the Irish Sea. i.e separating NI from the 'Union'.
The mess they created of that was continually pointed out by the UUP and the Alliance in their campaigns. Long was extremely critical of the DUP for that 'treachery' in the TV debates...i.e. she was happy enough to go after the disillusioned DUP/'Orange' vote when it suited her, on GREEN/ORANGE lines.
That's what I mean by the 'real world'.

Eh? Are the Alliance not entitled to an opinion or attack a rival's failings? Did she use the word treachery or was she simply pointing out the folly of their policies?

coolshannagh28 · 14-12-2019 12:32pm

In any post border poll scenario Alliance will be needed to drag moderate unionists into the new state or civil war is possible.

McMurphy · 14-12-2019 12:33pm

A very modest and humble statement from Finnucane.

https://twitter.com/BBCNewsNI/status/1205329947855863814?s=09

FrancieBrady · 14-12-2019 12:36pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Eh? Are the Alliance not entitled to an opinion or attack a rival's failings? Did she use the word treachery or was she simply pointing out the folly of their policies?

Paraphrasing her here, but she retorted to Donaldson at one point,- 'The union is in peril because you put it there'.

If that wasn't a push for a certain vote (the disgruntled Orange one) I don't know what is.

Also, if the 'moderate' Unionist community fears the economic implications of Brexit as circadian says, how come they didn't swing away in large numbers in the 2017 General Election? They only 'swung away' when the DUP made a balls of the 'Union'.

Again, the reality versus what some may want the issues to be maybe?

Fr Tod Umptious · 14-12-2019 12:38pm

circadian wrote: »

Not necessarily. Brexit showed us a referendum that would fundamentally change the fabric of a country, and it was a decision made with no pragmatism.

A united Ireland is something I'd love to see but it needs to be approached with a pragmatic view, not just through green and orange lenses.

Do you really think a UI border poll campaign would be approached with pragmatism ?

A UI is as about as "romantic" as it comes for a lot of people in the south anyway, you even say yourself "A united Ireland is something I'd love to see".

Do you think that any pro campaign north or south would be conducted based on the economic and social realities of reunification or would it our own version of sunlit uplands and unicorns ?

14-12-2019 12:43pm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

If that wasn't a push for a certain vote (the disgruntled Orange one) I don't know what is.

I've no problem with a politician appealing to any set of voters by highlighting the weakness of their opponent.

In this case it's saying the DUP are responsible for RHI, not being able to work Stormont so why do you vote for them when they cannot even support your precious union (I'm paraphrasing).

14-12-2019 12:48pm

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Do you really think a UI border poll campaign would be approached with pragmatism ?

A UI is as about as "romantic" as it comes for a lot of people in the south anyway, you even say yourself "A united Ireland is something I'd love to see".

Do you think that any pro campaign north or south would be conducted based on the economic and social realities of reunification or would it our own version of sunlit uplands and unicorns ?

You're 100% wrong if you think the traditional vote determines the majority. It's the middle, pragmatic (middle class

) from both traditions that will decide it.

The Orange and Green vote is around 42 and 38 % respectively.

If you cannot see that then take off your orange/Green* tinted glasses.

*delete as appropriate.

FrancieBrady · 14-12-2019 1:06pm

Deleted User wrote: »

You're 100% wrong if you think the traditional vote determines the majority. It's the middle, pragmatic (middle class ) from both traditions that will decide it.

The Orange and Green vote is around 42 and 38 % respectively.

If you cannot see that then take off your orange/Green* tinted glasses.

*delete as appropriate.

Very few people have shifted from their positions on the 2016 Brexit referendum.

Yet a few here are saying 'moderate Unionism is shifting because of economic concerns.

I think that doesn't tally with the reality. Surely those concerned about 'economic issues' and not Green/Orange ones would have shifted away at the first opportunity - the 2017 general election?

circadian · 14-12-2019 1:12pm

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Do you really think a UI border poll campaign would be approached with pragmatism ?

A UI is as about as "romantic" as it comes for a lot of people in the south anyway, you even say yourself "A united Ireland is something I'd love to see".

Do you think that any pro campaign north or south would be conducted based on the economic and social realities of reunification or would it our own version of sunlit uplands and unicorns ?

I agree it's a romantic idea for many people. I'm from the North and while I was happy with the status quo, that has been upended and the ideals of the GFA run roughshod by the Tories, English electorate and the DUP.

Now, a border poll is a very real possibility in the next decade. I think the population both north and south will be watching closely how the British get on with Brexit and possible Scottish independence. These will be very sobering events that may move our own electorate to be more pragmatic about a border poll, especially since Brexit has been a catastrophe due to a complete lack of planning.

14-12-2019 3:48pm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Very few people have shifted from their positions on the 2016 Brexit referendum.

Yet a few here are saying 'moderate Unionism is shifting because of economic concerns.

I think that doesn't tally with the reality. Surely those concerned about 'economic issues' and not Green/Orange ones would have shifted away at the first opportunity - the 2017 general election?

Nah, not even close. For a seismic shift there's a need for far more discussion. What would a UI look like, what would they be voting for? That's not even close to being answered yet.

Here you have the UK, which you fully understand, whereas there's the possibility of UI, which we don't know what that will entail. Would you vote for a UI. Alliance voters will not go for that. And I wouldn't blame them.

You're the one stuck in the Orange or Green mode, the Alliance have moved passed you. A UI most certainly wont be NI ceding to the ROI.

FrancieBrady · 14-12-2019 3:55pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Nah, not even close. For a seismic shift there's a need for far more discussion. What would a UI look like, what would they be voting for? That's not even close to being answered yet.

Here you have the UK, which you fully understand, whereas there's the possibility of UI, which we don't know what that will entail. Would you vote for a UI. Alliance voters will not go for that. And I wouldn't blame them.

You're the one stuck in the Orange or Green mode, the Alliance have moved passed you. A UI most certainly wont be NI ceding to the ROI.

That precisely my point...past me to where?

The Green/Orange debate exists and is a real thing. Ignore it if you wish and Alliance try their best to ignore it, but it is still there.
And, as the conversation that has started about a UI progresses the Alliance are caught in that quandary I outlined. How to position themselves.

14-12-2019 3:59pm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

...passed me to where

To the point that it's not about protecting their forefathers promises (1690/blood oath - orange) or hunger strikes and oppression (green). Alliance voters are looking at what is the best for them and their children. These people can be convinced of the benefits of a UI. Most Free Ps and The Sash My Father Wore types wont change their mind, but we dont need to get them to vote for a UI.

FrancieBrady · 14-12-2019 4:06pm

Deleted User wrote: »

To the point that it's not about protecting their forefathers promises (1690/blood oath - orange) or hunger strikes and oppression (green). Alliance voters are looking at what is the best for them and their children. These people can be convinced of the benefits of a UI. Most Free Ps and The Sash My Father Wore types wont change their mind, but we dont need to get them to vote for a UI.

You are simplifying Green and Orange values there.

Let me ask you another way...The Alliance get a unionist vote imo because they are happy with the Union. Would the Alliance be polling so high if they took a position one way or the other on a UI?

If they came out and said that now is the time for a Border Poll, for instance, would they enjoy such a high vote?

My opinion is they are a safe repository for Unionist votes atm and as soon as the constitutional question is front and centre that will change quite profoundly.

14-12-2019 4:30pm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

You are simplifying Green and Orange values there.

Let me ask you another way...The Alliance get a unionist vote imo because they are happy with the Union. Would the Alliance be polling so high if they took a position one way or the other on a UI?

If they came out and said that now is the time for a Border Poll, for instance, would they enjoy such a high vote?

My opinion is they are a safe repository for Unionist votes atm and as soon as the constitutional question is front and centre that will change quite profoundly.

Simplified, because a thesis would be OTT.

I think we'll just go around in circles, so best to agree to disagree. You think people cannot be convinced of the benefits of a UI. I think people, and Alliance Unionists in particular can be convinced. Out breeding them isn't much of a strategy.

circadian · 14-12-2019 4:43pm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

You are simplifying Green and Orange values there.

Let me ask you another way...The Alliance get a unionist vote imo because they are happy with the Union. Would the Alliance be polling so high if they took a position one way or the other on a UI?

If they came out and said that now is the time for a Border Poll, for instance, would they enjoy such a high vote?

My opinion is they are a safe repository for Unionist votes atm and as soon as the constitutional question is front and centre that will change quite profoundly.

Simplifying Green/Orange yet you are the one simplifying the idea of a border poll purely on Green/Orange ideas.

FrancieBrady · 14-12-2019 4:47pm

circadian wrote: »

Simplifying Green/Orange yet you are the one simplifying the idea of a border poll purely on Green/Orange ideas.

Part of the Green argument would be that everybody would be better off economically once a UI gets established. The Orange argument wishes to keep NI on the dummytit of handouts and subventions.

I.E. the Green argument is about more than the cliched simplified ones presented by the poster.

blanch152 · 14-12-2019 7:33pm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Part of the Green argument would be that everybody would be better off economically once a UI gets established. The Orange argument wishes to keep NI on the dummytit of handouts and subventions.

I.E. the Green argument is about more than the cliched simplified ones presented by the poster.

That Green argument has been shown so many times to be flawed, most recently by a John Fitzgerald study.

42% of the electorate voted for parties that care about the Union.
39% of the electorate voted for parties that care about a United Ireland.

The other 19% voted for parties that care about other issues and are not interested in either preserving or changing the constitutional status. They are the hope for the future.

FrancieBrady · 14-12-2019 7:39pm

blanch152 wrote: »

The other 19% voted for parties that care about other issues and are not interested in either preserving or changing the constitutional status. They are the hope for the future.

Did you interview them all? What an arrogant assumption.

14-12-2019 7:40pm

blanch152 wrote: »

The other 19% voted for parties that care about other issues and are not interested in either preserving or changing the constitutional status. They are the hope for the future.

I'd admire your persistence, but he wore me down eventually. :pac:

14-12-2019 7:42pm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Did you interview them all? What an arrogant assumption.

Francie, when was the last time you ever considered (never mind altering) changing your opinion?

FrancieBrady · 14-12-2019 7:48pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Francie, when was the last time you ever considered (never mind altering) changing your opinion?

The general election wasn't about the 'constitutional issue'. It was mostly about Brexit.

Why would anyone assume that a 19% vote meant that 19% are 'not concerned about the constitutional issue'? That is madness and wishful thinking personified.

Those who voted Alliance this time in Down have 'no interest in the constitutional issue'???

As they say in these parts 'up the yard'.

blanch152 · 14-12-2019 8:10pm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The general election wasn't about the 'constitutional issue'. It was mostly about Brexit.

Why would anyone assume that a 19% vote meant that 19% are 'not concerned about the constitutional issue'? That is madness and wishful thinking personified.

Those who voted Alliance this time in Down have 'no interest in the constitutional issue'???

As they say in these parts 'up the yard'.

Sinn Fein lost nearly a quarter of their voters in this election, 57,062 people who voted Sinn Fein in the last election and didn’t in this one.

Even the DUP only lost 48,189 voters.

The two sectarian parties took a beating, that is great for Northern Ireland.

It is not madness to think that 19% are not concerned about the constitutional issue. They have seen the last two wasted decades when the dinosaurs of Sinn Fein and the DUP have gone up against each other picking issues based on how they will antagonise the other side and not on how they improve the lot of people living and working in Northern Ireland. Watch the two old tired parties run scared of Assembly elections which would see them suffer further slides in popularity.

14-12-2019 8:21pm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The general election wasn't about the 'constitutional issue'. It was mostly about Brexit.

Why would anyone assume that a 19% vote meant that 19% are 'not concerned about the constitutional issue'? That is madness and wishful thinking personified.

Those who voted Alliance this time in Down have 'no interest in the constitutional issue'???

As they say in these parts 'up the yard'.

You didn't answer my question.

For the record I don't think the Alliance voters are neutral on the constitutional question. Virtually anyone with a pulse is not neutral on the constitutional question.

FrancieBrady · 14-12-2019 8:35pm

blanch152 wrote: »

Sinn Fein lost nearly a quarter of their voters in this election, 57,062 people who voted Sinn Fein in the last election and didn’t in this one.

Even the DUP only lost 48,189 voters.

The two sectarian parties took a beating, that is great for Northern Ireland.

It is not madness to think that 19% are not concerned about the constitutional issue. They have seen the last two wasted decades when the dinosaurs of Sinn Fein and the DUP have gone up against each other picking issues based on how they will antagonise the other side and not on how they improve the lot of people living and working in Northern Ireland. Watch the two old tired parties run scared of Assembly elections which would see them suffer further slides in popularity.

So you are doubling down on the idea that those unionists who gave their vote to the Alliance are 'not concerned about the constitutional issue'?

Hilarious, really is.

FrancieBrady · 14-12-2019 8:36pm

Deleted User wrote: »

You didn't answer my question.

For the record I don't think the Alliance voters are neutral on the constitutional question. Virtually anyone with a pulse is not neutral on the constitutional question.

The poster used a specific phrase - 'not concerned with the constitutional issue'.

You agree with that?

14-12-2019 8:42pm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The poster used a specific phrase - 'not concerned with the constitutional issue'.

You agree with that?

Not concerned with it for the GE in the sense that some vote for SF/DUP on the basis that it enhances the optics of a UI or the Union.

But, I doubt they are neutral on the constitutional question. And believe those Alliance Voters that are unionists are pragmatic unionist, open to persuasion.

Northern Ireland Westminster General Election

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