Northern Ireland Westminster General Election

FrancieBrady

Deleted User wrote: »

Not concerned with it for the GE in the sense that some vote for SF/DUP on the basis that it enhances the optics of a UI or the Union.



But, I doubt they are neutral on the constitutional question. And believe those Alliance Voters that are unionists are pragmatic unionist, open to persuasion.

You can bet every cent you have that they are 'concerned' with the constitutional question. But this election wasn't about that, therefore they felt safe using the Alliance as a repository for a protest vote against a party that has endangered everybody's economic safety by endorsing Brexit.

That is the problem with fantasy readings (ala blanch) into the Alliance surge.
The danger that it primarily a 'lent vote' is far too high.

FrancieBrady

FrancieBrady wrote: »

You can bet every cent you have that they are 'concerned' with the constitutional question. But this election wasn't about that...

I agree with you up until then.


Another question, do you think it's possible to persuade a significant number of small u unionists of the benefits of a UI. If not, why not? Okay, that's two questions.

FrancieBrady

Deleted User wrote: »

I agree with you up until then.


Another question, do you think it's possible to persuade a significant number of small u unionists of the benefits of a UI. If not, why not? Okay, that's two questions.

Of course it is possible. I never claimed otherwise. I know unionists who are persuaded and who just want assurances as to rights for them and their identities if a UI happens.

Unionism is, thanks to the DUP, facing up to truths about the 'Union'.

FrancieBrady

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Of course it is possible. I never claimed otherwise. I know unionists who are persuaded and who just want assurances as to rights for them and their identities if a UI happens.

Unionism is, thanks to the DUP, facing up to truths about the 'Union'.

And would you go further and say it's the unionists within Alliance that would be more predisposed to changing their stance?


I agree that it's dawning on them that things are changing, economically tied to ROI and distanced from GB, plus steadily losing their majority and declining.

FrancieBrady

Deleted User wrote: »

And would you go further and say it's the unionists within Alliance that would be more predisposed to changing their stance?


.

Not necessarily. Moderate unionism has always existed.
I firmly believe Alliance is used as a safe repository by unionists of all kinds.

I said before it would take a number of electoral cycles to see the real growth of the party.
Slugger O'Toole article had a pundit who believes there will be an adjustment back if the Assembly gets up and running again.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

So you are doubling down on the idea that those unionists who gave their vote to the Alliance are 'not concerned about the constitutional issue'?

Hilarious, really is.

Yes, they see other things as more important like health for example.

Just because you are buried in the us versus them mentality doesn’t mean that everyone else is, things are changing and the union isn’t as important, but changing it isn’t important either.

Junkyard Tom

blanch152 wrote: »

Just because you are buried in the us versus them mentality

You're 'them' i.e. those that are determined to prevent a United Ireland, unionists, partitonists, not-now-ists, whatever you want to call yourselves.

You've clearly picked a side but, like the DUP in the north, your self-awareness around the issue is absent.

blanch152

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

You're 'them' i.e. those that are determined to prevent a United Ireland, unionists, partitonists, not-now-ists, whatever you want to call yourselves.

You've clearly picked a side but, like the DUP in the north, your self-awareness around the issue is absent.

I am in the middle, the romantic child inside of me would like a United Ireland, the pragmatic adult realises that it is not a workable idea at the moment, and that many people in the North are less concerned about it, hence the huge collapse of the Sinn Fein vote.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

Yes, they see other things as more important like health for example.

Just because you are buried in the us versus them mentality doesn’t mean that everyone else is, things are changing and the union isn’t as important, but changing it isn’t important either.

I don't think you have displayed your weird blindspot as clearly before as this.

SF lost votes like FG or FF or any other political party would because they are not performing for their constituency at the moment.
There was no question about the constitutional issue at this election, and a UI is not the preserve of SF alone.

You have demonstrated that your fantasy world of how you think the world should be has completely taken you over if you think those unionists who switched to the Alliance in Down are 'not concerned about the constitutional issue'.

At least Chinese Whospers put some distance between his/her position and yours.
Embarrassingly out of touch tbh.

Junkyard Tom

blanch152 wrote: »

not a workable idea at the moment

'Them'.

FrancieBrady

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I firmly believe Alliance is used as a safe repository by unionists of all kinds.

I said before it would take a number of electoral cycles to see the real growth of the party.

They've made significant and steady gains under Naomi including Assembly and EU elections.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Slugger O'Toole article had a pundit who believes there will be an adjustment back if the Assembly gets up and running again.

I've been reading and commenting on Slugger pretty much since the site started. Not the same user name as here

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I don't think you have displayed your weird blindspot as clearly before as this.

SF lost votes like FG or FF or any other political party would because they are not performing for their constituency at the moment.
There was no question about the constitutional issue at this election, and a UI is not the preserve of SF alone.

You have demonstrated that your fantasy world of how you think the world should be has completely taken you over if you think those unionists who switched to the Alliance in Down are 'not concerned about the constitutional issue'.

At least Chinese Whospers put some distance between his/her position and yours.
Embarrassingly out of touch tbh.

It is not fantasy to see that the two sectarian parties got a hammering, it is not fantasy to note the drop in support for the nationalist parties, and neither is it fantasy to note the rise in the Northern Irish identity.

FrancieBrady

Deleted User wrote: »

They've made significant and steady gains under Naomi including Assembly and EU elections.

Through a period that has seen the whole world hiding behind sofas as the DUP implodes.

SDLP, SF PBP UUP DUP etc supporters are not sitting obsessing about the constitutional issues, they are just as concerned about health education and other issues as any other person.
Blanch and yourself try to make it sound that they are all single issue, Illinformed and delusional tbh.

I've been reading and commenting on Slugger pretty much since the site started. Not the same user name as here

Sorry, you've lost me.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

It is not fantasy to see that the two sectarian parties got a hammering, it is not fantasy to note the drop in support for the nationalist parties, and neither is it fantasy to note the rise in the Northern Irish identity.

And every political party has taken a hammering at some point or other. Greens, FG, FF, Tory's Labour etc etc etc. Over periods of time too.

Not sure what your point is.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

And every political party has taken a hammering at some point or other. Greens, FG, FF, Tory's Labour etc etc etc. Over periods of time too.

Not sure what your point is.

Does that apply to the DUP as well?

Francie Barrett wrote: »

The DUP reaction to their bad election is particularly enjoyable. It doesn't look like they realise where they went wrong at all. It augurs well for further miscalculation from them in the future again.

Of course not. You are right Francie about the DUP being too stupid to learn from their mistakes and are likely to miscalculate again. However, they are not the only ones, and Sinn Fein took a heavier hammering vote wise than the DUP and it is clear that you certainly don’t realise where they went wrong.

FrancieBrady

FrancieBrady wrote: »

SDLP, SF PBP UUP DUP etc supporters are not sitting obsessing about the constitutional issues, they are just as concerned about health education and other issues as any other person.
Blanch and yourself try to make it sound that they are all single issue, Illinformed and delusional tbh.

Everything the SDLP/SF AND DUP/UUP do is considered through a green/orange lens. Alliance rise above that.



Again, don't expect you to agree with me. We've different opinions on this.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

Does that apply to the DUP as well?

Off course it does.

You are so into the Shinner bashing you have convinced yourself that unionist voters in Down and elsewhere are not 'concerned about the constitutional issue'. You have convinced yourself that this election was about a UI.


Utterly fabulous. I wish I could go along with your fantasy, but I live in a real world.

In blanch's world, do you think Claire Hanna and Eastwood will be campaigning against a UI come a border poll?

FrancieBrady

Deleted User wrote: »

Everything the SDLP/SF AND DUP/UUP do is considered through a green/orange lens. Alliance rise above that.



Again, don't expect you to agree with me. We've different opinions on this.

Yes I agree with you.

But that is because the Orange/Green issues are not settled, as I said when I asked the question about the where the Allliance would position themselves when the settlement of the Orange/Green question inevitably arises. They cannot sit on fence through that one...is my point.

I represent the 'Green' issue and it has as much to do with economic security and prosperity as any Alliance voter will be considering. So don't try and make it about 'romantic' notions.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Off course it does.

You are so into the Shinner bashing you have convinced yourself that unionist voters in Down and elsewhere are not 'concerned about the constitutional issue'. You have convinced yourself that this election was about a UI.


Utterly fabulous. I wish I could go along with your fantasy, but I live in a real world.

In blanch's world, do you think Claire Hanna and Eastwood will be campaigning against a UI come a border poll?

Your inventive skills have reached new heights, I have never said this election was about a united Ireland.

100,000 people took their votes away from the two sectarian parties, because they were tired of them ignoring the real issues while engaging in silly squabbles.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

Your inventive skills have reached new heights, I have never said this election was about a united Ireland.

100,000 people took their votes away from the two sectarian parties, because they were tired of them ignoring the real issues while engaging in silly squabbles.

The problem with your position is that there is absolutely no scientific evidence that nationalist peoples positions on the constitutional issue is changing.

I'll say it again...every single political party that ever was suffers and gains on policies and issues from election to election.

Here is the blunt reality of what is significant about the constitutional issue in NI in graphic form. Having taken a seat never before held by a nationalist and the seat of Carson, 100 years after partition, this is the current position.



You never answered, do you think Claire Hanna and Colum Eastwood will campaign against a UI when a Poll happens?

Mr.Nice Guy

DUP argument through the election: can't have an Irish language act because that money would be better spent on the health service.

However...

https://twitter.com/JamesERothwell/status/1205956669529886723

Enough money for that apparently.

How about building some decent roads for the overlooked north-west?

BonnieSituation

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

DUP argument through the election: can't have an Irish language act because that money would be better spent on the health service.

However...

https://twitter.com/JamesERothwell/status/1205956669529886723

Enough money for that apparently.

How about building some decent roads for the overlooked north-west?

Hiw many times does that goddam bridge need to brought up and then shot down? They're bloody infuriating.

FrancieBrady

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

DUP argument through the election: can't have an Irish language act because that money would be better spent on the health service.

However...

https://twitter.com/JamesERothwell/status/1205956669529886723

Enough money for that apparently.

How about building some decent roads for the overlooked north-west?

They have failed to maintain an abstract connection so now want a big visual connection.
Johnson is probably stupid enough and vain enough to go for this.

BonnieSituation

FrancieBrady wrote: »

They have failed to maintain an abstract connection so now want a big visual connection.
Johnson is probably stupid enough and vain enough to go for this.

This nonsense story isn't news to you surely? It's annual nonsense.

FrancieBrady

BonnieSituation wrote: »

This nonsense story isn't news to you surely? It's annual nonsense.

no...heard it all before.

tipptom

FrancieBrady wrote: »

They have failed to maintain an abstract connection so now want a big visual connection.
Johnson is probably stupid enough and vain enough to go for this.

Don't think Boris is mad enough for that but if he did then it could be a bridge joining Ireland to the EUs most recent member and all paid for by the UK taxpayer.

That would be a delicious topping out ceremony.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The problem with your position is that there is absolutely no scientific evidence that nationalist peoples positions on the constitutional issue is changing.

I'll say it again...every single political party that ever was suffers and gains on policies and issues from election to election.

Here is the blunt reality of what is significant about the constitutional issue in NI in graphic form. Having taken a seat never before held by a nationalist and the seat of Carson, 100 years after partition, this is the current position.



You never answered, do you think Claire Hanna and Colum Eastwood will campaign against a UI when a Poll happens?

Yes, the seats pattern looks good, but that is the first past the post system.

Sinn Fein got a hammering in the election, the nationalist vote dropped, the demographic inevitability isn't happening as the young generation turn away from the old ideas.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

Yes, the seats pattern looks good, but that is the first past the post system.

Sinn Fein got a hammering in the election, the nationalist vote dropped, the demographic inevitability isn't happening as the young generation turn away from the old ideas.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/north-returns-more-nationalist-than-unionist-mps-for-first-time-1.4114260

https://www.rte.ie/news/uk-election-2019-northern-ireland/2019/1213/1098878-general-election-dup/

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-election-nireland/northern-irish-nationalists-eye-historic-gain-as-brexit-sends-dup-reeling-idUKKBN1YE248

https://www.businessworld.ie/news-from-ireland/Irish-nationalists-overtake-unionists-at-UK-election-for-first-time-573285.html

https://www.channel4.com/news/nationalists-win-more-seats-than-unionists-in-ni-for-first-time

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/general-election-results-northern-ireland-dup-sinn-fein-nigel-dodds-a9245021.html

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/12/13/northern-ireland-election-results-2019-seats-referendum/

A cross section of how major news agencies/papers reported the story.

The 'story' according to blanch - 'SF took a hammering'.

Truly embarrassed for you and not envious of your pain.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/north-returns-more-nationalist-than-unionist-mps-for-first-time-1.4114260

https://www.rte.ie/news/uk-election-2019-northern-ireland/2019/1213/1098878-general-election-dup/

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-election-nireland/northern-irish-nationalists-eye-historic-gain-as-brexit-sends-dup-reeling-idUKKBN1YE248

https://www.businessworld.ie/news-from-ireland/Irish-nationalists-overtake-unionists-at-UK-election-for-first-time-573285.html

https://www.channel4.com/news/nationalists-win-more-seats-than-unionists-in-ni-for-first-time

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/general-election-results-northern-ireland-dup-sinn-fein-nigel-dodds-a9245021.html

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/12/13/northern-ireland-election-results-2019-seats-referendum/

A cross section of how major news agencies/papers reported the story.

The 'story' according to blanch - 'SF took a hammering'.

Truly embarrassed for you and not envious of your pain.

From the RTE article:

"However, it was not a positive poll for Sinn Féin overall.

Its vote fell everywhere else and it suffered an embarrassing reversal in Foyle, where outgoing MP Elishia McCallion was decisively beaten by Mr Eastwood with a 17,000-vote majority."

"The results will be seen as potential evidence of a shift towards more centre-ground politics in Northern Ireland - a trend that appears to be borne out by another positive showing for the cross-community Alliance Party."

I take it you agree with that article?

Dyr

blanch152 wrote: »

Yes, the seats pattern looks good, but that is the first past the post system.

Sinn Fein got a hammering in the election, the nationalist vote dropped, the demographic inevitability isn't happening as the young generation turn away from the old ideas.

Up until now you spent all your time claiming that voting for SF did not equate with supporting a UI (actually correct), now apparently it does. This election is pretty much everything nationalists could want, Brexit and the Withdrawal agreement guaranteed by a Conservative majority, the SNP ascendant, Unionist MPs in a minority, a major milestone in the decline of Unionism. and the DUP in disaster management mode (Which was what SF were after, the real game is having the DUP sheepishly retrun to Stormont on SF's term)


Perhaps bang an email off to George Osborne to let him know that he's wrong about this election being a disaster for NI's place in the union. He'll probably give you as much heed as everyone else does bar poor Francie