Northern Ireland Westminster General Election

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

From the RTE article:

"However, it was not a positive poll for Sinn Féin overall.

Its vote fell everywhere else and it suffered an embarrassing reversal in Foyle, where outgoing MP Elishia McCallion was decisively beaten by Mr Eastwood with a 17,000-vote majority."

"The results will be seen as potential evidence of a shift towards more centre-ground politics in Northern Ireland - a trend that appears to be borne out by another positive showing for the cross-community Alliance Party."

I take it you agree with that article?

I actually said it earlier...the shift to the Alliance 'could' be many things ('potential evidence') it could be a permanent shift and it could also be that they are being used as a repository for protest votes.

I am interested in a UI, not the fortunes of a single political party, all of whom experience rise and fall and take hammerings and get landslides.

It is a fabulous day for anyone who looks forward to a UI, why? It's in the headlines in all those newspapers.

No interest in the Green/Orange issue, you say? The world's media disagree.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I actually said it earlier...the shift to the Alliance 'could' be many things ('potential evidence') it could be a permanent shift and it could also be that they are being used as a repository for protest votes.

I am interested in a UI, not the fortunes of a single political party, all of whom experience rise and fall and take hammerings and get landslides.

It is a fabulous day for anyone who looks forward to a UI, why? It's in the headlines in all those newspapers.

No interest in the Green/Orange issue, you say? The world's media disagree.

So you must be interested in the stagnation and slight decline in the nationalist vote this century, then?

42.7% in 2001, 41.8% in 2005, 42% in 2010, 38.4% in 2015, 41.1% in 2017, 38.9% in 2019.

I mean, it looks like it peaked in 2001, yet we have been continually told about the demographic inevitability?

This year saw the second lowest vote this century.

In fact, with 40.2% in 1997, you have to go back to 1992, almost 30 years to see a nationalist vote lower than this year or 2015.

My analysis is that 2017 was a response to Brexit, but by 2019, an awful lot of people (50,000), figured out that Sinn Fein weren't doing anything decent for Northern Ireland. I must say the spin on it has gone well over the last few days, but the reality of the figures will hit sooner or later. Better get the deal done with the DUP so both parties can avoid a disastorous Stormont election early next year.

An Ciarraioch

blanch152 wrote: »

So you must be interested in the stagnation and slight decline in the nationalist vote this century, then?

42.7% in 2001, 41.8% in 2005, 42% in 2010, 38.4% in 2015, 41.1% in 2017, 38.9% in 2019.

I mean, it looks like it peaked in 2001, yet we have been continually told about the demographic inevitability?

This year saw the second lowest vote this century.

In fact, with 40.2% in 1997, you have to go back to 1992, almost 30 years to see a nationalist vote lower than this year or 2015.

My analysis is that 2017 was a response to Brexit, but by 2019, an awful lot of people (50,000), figured out that Sinn Fein weren't doing anything decent for Northern Ireland. I must say the spin on it has gone well over the last few days, but the reality of the figures will hit sooner or later. Better get the deal done with the DUP so both parties can avoid a disastorous Stormont election early next year.

On a technical point, you have to include the Aontú figure with SF and SDLP, which brings the 2019 figure up to 40%.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

So you must be interested in the stagnation and slight decline in the nationalist vote this century, then?

42.7% in 2001, 41.8% in 2005, 42% in 2010, 38.4% in 2015, 41.1% in 2017, 38.9% in 2019.

I mean, it looks like it peaked in 2001, yet we have been continually told about the demographic inevitability?

This year saw the second lowest vote this century.

In fact, with 40.2% in 1997, you have to go back to 1992, almost 30 years to see a nationalist vote lower than this year or 2015.

My analysis is that 2017 was a response to Brexit, but by 2019, an awful lot of people (50,000), figured out that Sinn Fein weren't doing anything decent for Northern Ireland. I must say the spin on it has gone well over the last few days, but the reality of the figures will hit sooner or later. Better get the deal done with the DUP so both parties can avoid a disastorous Stormont election early next year.

Ok, you seem intent on sticking to the 'no interest in the Green/Orange issues, when Irish Unity is on the agenda in a way it has never been before. And when what is coming - Brexit - will make it an ever more persistent issue.

Like the DUP you will find the world will move on without you.

blanch152

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

On a technical point, you have to include the Aontú figure with SF and SDLP, which brings the 2019 figure up to 40%.

I hate to tell you I already did.

SF 22.8%, SDLP 14.9%, Aontu 2.2%, giving you 38.9%.

A bad result for the nationalist demographic imperative.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Ok, you seem intent on sticking to the 'no interest in the Green/Orange issues, when Irish Unity is on the agenda in a way it has never been before. And when what is coming - Brexit - will make it an ever more persistent issue.

Like the DUP you will find the world will move on without you.

I am ahead of the curve here. Only Varadkar seems to have picked up on this. I am surprised, because he had been seen as a little soft on the issue - I think you even praised him at one stage - but he sees the emergence of the middle ground.

A united Ireland is now even less likely. Enhanced joint sovereignty is the way forward.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

I hate to tell you I already did.

SF 22.8%, SDLP 14.9%, Aontu 2.2%, giving you 38.9%.

A bad result for the nationalist demographic imperative.




I am ahead of the curve here. Only Varadkar seems to have picked up on this. I am surprised, because he had been seen as a little soft on the issue - I think you even praised him at one stage - but he sees the emergence of the middle ground.

A united Ireland is now even less likely. Enhanced joint sovereignty is the way forward.

Why would the 'middle ground' not be persuaded to vote for a UI?

*I am so sorry I didn't start compiling a list of all the things you want to call the inevitable instead of what we are inexorably heading towards.

Some would see Leo's comments as the equivalent of the boy putting his finger in a dyke.
I too now is the wrong time to be calling for a poll, but one will have to come.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Why would the 'middle ground' not be persuaded to vote for a UI?

*I am so sorry I didn't start compiling a list of all the things you want to call the inevitable instead of what we are inexorably heading towards.

Some would see Leo's comments as the equivalent of the boy putting his finger in a dyke.
I too now is the wrong time to be calling for a poll, but one will have to come.

There won't be a border poll, until it is likely to pass. That will require a nationalist majority in Stormont.

What makes you think that any of the middle ground will vote for a united Ireland?

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

There won't be a border poll, until it is likely to pass. That will require a nationalist majority in Stormont.

What makes you think that any of the middle ground will vote for a united Ireland?

Why does anybody vote for anything?



*I think this assumption about the 'middle ground' gives us another insight into your thinking here. 'How could anybody 'sensible' vote to leave the mighty UK'.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Why does anybody vote for anything?



*I think this assumption about the 'middle ground' gives us another insight into your thinking here. 'How could anybody 'sensible' vote to leave the mighty UK'.

You again miss the point, you are so caught up with the idea that the only thing that matters is whether your lot or the other lot have the upper hand, that you don't see the audience leaving fed up with you both.

A united Ireland is just not the most important thing any more for many people originally of a nationalist persuasion.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

You again miss the point, you are so caught up with the idea that the only thing that matters is whether your lot or the other lot have the upper hand, that you don't see the audience leaving fed up with you both.

A united Ireland is just not the most important thing any more for many people originally of a nationalist persuasion.

Who are 'my lot'?

If I lived in NI there are Alliance candidates I would vote for. Alliance are not opposed to a UI and they are not opposed to giving others the same rights as everybody else on these islands.

Hey presto, I'm middle ground.

*I would also vote for a UI.

Junkyard Tom

blanch152 wrote: »

your lot or the other lot .

You're 'the other lot'. In a UI referendum there'll be people who want a UI and those who don't - those who don't in the the south will be aligning themselves with the UUP/DUP and UVF whether they like it or not. You keep fooling yourself that a UI is an 'up there' issue when it clearly isn't.

Ireland is a state in transition. You will need to come up with a vision for a permanently partitioned state in the south and you will have no right to the current flag, constitution and many other trappings of the nation.

Good luck with that.

CrabRevolution

blanch152 wrote: »

There won't be a border poll, until it is likely to pass. That will require a nationalist majority in Stormont.

What makes you think that any of the middle ground will vote for a united Ireland?

Can you elaborate on this? I'd take the middle ground to mean those who aren't Unionists or Nationalists.

You say none of the middle ground will ever want a United Ireland. This would make them Unionists by definition.

If they're Unionists, in what sense are they the "middle ground"?

blanch152

CrabRevolution wrote: »

Can you elaborate on this? I'd take the middle ground to mean those who aren't Unionists or Nationalists.

You say none of the middle ground will ever want a United Ireland. This would make them Unionists by definition.

If they're Unionists, in what sense are they the "middle ground"?

You are viewing the world through a binary lens.

Nationalists see the most important issue as being partition, you see it here with Francie who blames everything that goes wrong in the North as ultimately caused by partition. Unionists see the most important thing as being the union and this must be defended at all costs.

The rising middle ground says to hell with you both and your outdated ideologies. Let’s get on with fixing the economy, health and education, making people’s lives better and sorting abortion and same-sex marriage and letting people live their lives in peace. They are neither nationalist nor unionist but both, they don’t define themselves as either Irish or British but Northern Irish and recognise their joint heritage. They could vote for a united Ireland in the future at a time when it is clear that it would be universally welcomed and wouldn’t upset a large segment of the population. In the meantime, where is our Assembly?

Neither unionists nor nationalists understand this mentality, because if they conceptually recognise it, their own fate is sealed.

FrancieBrady

CrabRevolution wrote: »

Can you elaborate on this? I'd take the middle ground to mean those who aren't Unionists or Nationalists.

You say none of the middle ground will ever want a United Ireland. This would make them Unionists by definition.

If they're Unionists, in what sense are they the "middle ground"?

Blanch has already doubled down on his theory that Unionists in Down, by defecting en masse to the Alliance in a single election are 'no longer concerned about the constitutional issue'.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Blanch has already doubled down on his theory that Unionists in Down, by defecting en masse to the Alliance in a single election are 'no longer concerned about the constitutional issue'.

Your ability to twist the meaning of posts to fit your warped vision continually amazes me. I never said that.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

You are viewing the world through a binary lens.

Nationalists see the most important issue as being partition, you see it here with Francie who blames everything that goes wrong in the North as ultimately caused by partition. Unionists see the most important thing as being the union and this must be defended at all costs.

The rising middle ground says to hell with you both and your outdated ideologies. Let’s get on with fixing the economy, health and education, making people’s lives better and sorting abortion and same-sex marriage and letting people live their lives in peace. They are neither nationalist nor unionist but both, they don’t define themselves as either Irish or British but Northern Irish and recognise their joint heritage. They could vote for a united Ireland in the future at a time when it is clear that it would be universally welcomed and wouldn’t upset a large segment of the population. In the meantime, where is our Assembly?

Neither unionists nor nationalists understand this mentality, because if they conceptually recognise it, their own fate is sealed.

If the two parties the DUP and SF are concerned only with Green and Orange in your opinion and that is why NI is how it is....then how in god's name can you not point to 'partition' being the problem?
Do you ever read back or follow through your points logically?

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

Your ability to twist the meaning of posts to fit your warped vision continually amazes me. I never said that.

And now we get the familiar blanch ploy of moving away from what he said because it no longer fits what he is trying to say.

blanch152 wrote:

The two sectarian parties took a beating, that is great for Northern Ireland.

It is not madness to think that 19% are not concerned about the constitutional issue.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

If the two parties the DUP and SF are concerned only with Green and Orange in your opinion and that is why NI is how it is....then how in god's name can you not point to 'partition' being the problem?
Do you ever read back or follow through your points logically?

Because like it or not, ending partition doesn’t end the Orange or Green issue, despite your unicorns and rainbows idea that it will. The middle ground will only accept a change to the status quo that is welcomed by the vast majority. Ultimately, you will need to see more unionists voting for the Alliance etc. Than for the DUP. On the other side, they will need to see that nationalists have firmly rejected their violent terrorist heritage, which means the current fall of Sinn Fein must continue.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

And now we get the familiar blanch ploy of moving away from what he said because it no longer fits what he is trying to say.

Absolutely no reference to Down in that. You extrapolated and twisted the meaning.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

Because like it or not, ending partition doesn’t end the Orange or Green issue, despite your unicorns and rainbows idea that it will. The middle ground will only accept a change to the status quo that is welcomed by the vast majority. Ultimately, you will need to see more unionists voting for the Alliance etc. Than for the DUP. On the other side, they will need to see that nationalists have firmly rejected their violent terrorist heritage, which means the current fall of Sinn Fein must continue.

There were Green/Orange issues to be worked out when we became independent.

Again you inadvertently reveal your leanings here.

Is there nothing in blanch's wee bubble that Unionists need to show they 'reject', it's only them 'bad terrorist nationalists' that caused all the trouble?

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

Absolutely no reference to Down in that. You extrapolated and twisted the meaning.

The twisting out of it continues.

Can remember the exact rise in the Alliance vote this time around, let's say it 10%

Are that 10% 'unconcerned about the constitutional issue' in your opinion?

markodaly

blanch152 wrote: »

Sinn Fein lost nearly a quarter of their voters in this election, 57,062 people who voted Sinn Fein in the last election and didn’t in this one.

Even the DUP only lost 48,189 voters.

The two sectarian parties took a beating, that is great for Northern Ireland.

It is not madness to think that 19% are not concerned about the constitutional issue. They have seen the last two wasted decades when the dinosaurs of Sinn Fein and the DUP have gone up against each other picking issues based on how they will antagonise the other side and not on how they improve the lot of people living and working in Northern Ireland. Watch the two old tired parties run scared of Assembly elections which would see them suffer further slides in popularity.

This!

I am very very glad that the Alliance vote share went up by so much.
A great success.

The future of NI needs parties like Alliance if it is going to make a go of it in the modern European sphere of politic. Politics should be about policy, not what street were you born on, or did your father wear a sash/sing rebel songs.

The Green/Orange endless debate about the constitutional question is both boring and tiresome. Outbreeding your rivals is not an answer and is a recipe for disaster in the longer run. It will be resolved in due course, but its going to take decades imo for any form of UI to take place.

There seems to be a big push now to get Stormont up and running, especially by SF seeing as their vote is down by 25%. There is an imminent election here in the South, so they have huge interest now in getting a deal done.

FrancieBrady

markodaly wrote: »

This!

I am very very glad that the Alliance vote share went up by so much.
A great success.

The future of NI needs parties like Alliance if it is going to make a go of it in the modern European sphere of politic. Politics should be about policy, not what street were you born on, or did your father wear a sash/sing rebel songs.

The Green/Orange endless debate about the constitutional question is both boring and tiresome. Outbreeding your rivals is not an answer and is a recipe for disaster in the longer run. It will be resolved in due course, but its going to take decades imo for any form of UI to take place.

There seems to be a big push now to get Stormont up and running, especially by SF seeing as their vote is down by 25%. There is an imminent election here in the South, so they have huge interest now in getting a deal done.

They thought they had a deal done in FEBRUARY 2018 Mark. But sure! they are the desperate ones. :D

markodaly

FrancieBrady wrote: »

They thought they had a deal done in FEBRUARY 2018 Mark. But sure! they are the desperate ones. :D

Oh, definitely they are.

MLD will want to be knocking on the doors in April of would-be voters, with Stormont up and running.

Having it dead and non-existent will only confirm to voters that SF are all talk, no action and if they want to be part of a coalition government, probably with FF then they need to stop taking high moral grounds and actually get going with running the place.

CrabRevolution

blanch152 wrote: »

You are viewing the world through a binary lens.

Nationalists see the most important issue as being partition, you see it here with Francie who blames everything that goes wrong in the North as ultimately caused by partition. Unionists see the most important thing as being the union and this must be defended at all costs.

The rising middle ground says to hell with you both and your outdated ideologies. Let’s get on with fixing the economy, health and education, making people’s lives better and sorting abortion and same-sex marriage and letting people live their lives in peace. They are neither nationalist nor unionist but both, they don’t define themselves as either Irish or British but Northern Irish and recognise their joint heritage. They could vote for a united Ireland in the future at a time when it is clear that it would be universally welcomed and wouldn’t upset a large segment of the population. In the meantime, where is our Assembly?

Neither unionists nor nationalists understand this mentality, because if they conceptually recognise it, their own fate is sealed.

I'm sure there's a sizeable number for whom the constitutional status isn't a major issue. My problem is that you're effectively labeling them as unionists and saying their votes should be interpreted as such.

Even the bolded part is emblematic of this. You say they'd only vote for a UI if it's "universally welcomed"; an impossible standard to meet and as good as saying they'd never vote for a UI.

FrancieBrady

markodaly wrote: »

Oh, definitely they are.

MLD will want to be knocking on the doors in April of would-be voters, with Stormont up and running.

Having it dead and non-existent will only confirm to voters that SF are all talk, no action and if they want to be part of a coalition government, probably with FF then they need to stop taking high moral grounds and actually get going with running the place.

Do you see any pressure on the DUP at all? Did you completely miss their part in this?

FrancieBrady

CrabRevolution wrote: »

I'm sure there's a sizeable number for whom the constitutional status isn't a major issue. My problem is that you're effectively labeling them as unionists and saying their votes should be interpreted as such.

Even the bolded part is emblematic of this. You say they'd only vote for a UI if it's "universally welcomed"; an impossible standard to meet and as good as saying they'd never vote for a UI.

blanch doesn't mean people are going over the the 'middle ground' at all, what he really means they are going over to 'his ground'.

I would absolutely love to embrace the idea that the swing to Alliance was voters saying 'the constitutional issue is of not concern to them', really I would.

But the difference between blanch and I is that I know the place I am talking about, and blanch is doing some wishful partitionist thinking.

markodaly

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Do you see any pressure on the DUP at all? Did you completely miss their part in this?

Oh, there is pressure on them as well, more of a longer term pressure. The immediate pressure is on SF though.

If MLD wants to be Tainasite, she needs to get a deal done imo.

FrancieBrady

markodaly wrote: »

Oh, there is pressure on them as well, more of a longer term pressure. The immediate pressure is on SF though.

If MLD wants to be Tainasite, she needs to get a deal done imo.

They had an acceptable (to Sinn Fein and some DUPers) deal done.

I think myself that Dodds gone will be pivotal here. As well as losing to the Alliance in Down. Their support has categorically said there that they cannot be scared about putative threats to the Union. The fact that they lost on Same Sex Marriage and women's rights will have a huge impact too. Julian Smith re-iterating that the world will move on without them again in January elections will be a scary prospect for a DUP in retreat and without it's cozy Westminster deal.

I see something similar to that original deal being agreed. Probably couched in slightly different terms to save the DUP some face.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

There were Green/Orange issues to be worked out when we became independent.

Again you inadvertently reveal your leanings here.

Is there nothing in blanch's wee bubble that Unionists need to show they 'reject', it's only them 'bad terrorist nationalists' that caused all the trouble?

Read my post again, I am saying that the unionists will have to reject the DUP.

All you ever do is spin people's words against them to try and label them in a way that you can reject them.