Northern Ireland Westminster General Election

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

Read my post again, I am saying that the unionists will have to reject the DUP.

All you ever do is spin people's words against them to try and label them in a way that you can reject them.

Here is what you said:

Ultimately, you will need to see more unionists voting for the Alliance etc. Than for the DUP.

Were did you say Unionists need to 'reject' the DUP?

Do you include the nationalist SDLP in your inference that nationalists have a 'violent terrorist heritage'?

Or are you just having a typical blanch potshot that you will row back on when challenged?

blanch152

CrabRevolution wrote: »

I'm sure there's a sizeable number for whom the constitutional status isn't a major issue. My problem is that you're effectively labeling them as unionists and saying their votes should be interpreted as such.

Even the bolded part is emblematic of this. You say they'd only vote for a UI if it's "universally welcomed"; an impossible standard to meet and as good as saying they'd never vote for a UI.

Their default is the status quo, it is not something they are anxious to change in a hurry, they might have preferred options but it is isn't the main thing.

Take me for example. I have a wish for a more integrated Europe, one that further reduces the importance of nationalism. It may happen, it may not, but it doesn't give me existential issues. It also doesn't determine my vote come election time (climate crisis is bigger issue). It is the same for the middle ground in the North. They see all the noise around a united Ireland as a distraction from making peoples lives better, that the trench war between the DUP and SF is just tiresome at this stage.

They are not unionists, but they are not nationalists either, they contain both. Whatever their views on the union or a UI, it won't determine how they will vote, and what is best for people will come first. They are neither believer nor atheist, they are agnostic.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

Their default is the status quo, it is not something they are anxious to change in a hurry, they might have preferred options but it is isn't the main thing.

Take me for example. I have a wish for a more integrated Europe, one that further reduces the importance of nationalism. It may happen, it may not, but it doesn't give me existential issues. It also doesn't determine my vote come election time (climate crisis is bigger issue). It is the same for the middle ground in the North. They see all the noise around a united Ireland as a distraction from making peoples lives better, that the trench war between the DUP and SF is just tiresome at this stage.

They are not unionists, but they are not nationalists either, they contain both. Whatever their views on the union or a UI, it won't determine how they will vote, and what is best for people will come first. They are neither believer nor atheist, they are agnostic.

The idea that Unionists in Down are 'agnostic' on the constitutional issue because they hurt the DUP in ONE election is still preposterously naive IMO.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Here is what you said:



Were did you say Unionists need to 'reject' the DUP?

Do you include the nationalist SDLP in your inference that nationalists have a 'violent terrorist heritage'?

Or are you just having a typical blanch potshot that you will row back on when challenged?

Pedantic nonsense. If it helps you to climb off your self-constructed pillar of ridiculosity, yes, the unionists have to reject the nonsense of the DUP.

No, I don't include the SDLP in my inference, I should also have said "recent violent terrorist heritage" before you start talking about history, something that sectarians are prone to do. I don't need another pontifical lecture about the history of all nationalist parties, the thing is, only one has terrorists currently campaigning for them.

The fact that you get bogged down in detailed semantics to prove a point is emblematic (and that is one word I picked deliberately) of the problem in the same way that the childish SF want an Irish Languages Act rather than a Minorities Language Act.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The idea that Unionists in Down are 'agnostic' on the constitutional issue because they hurt the DUP in ONE election is still preposterously naive IMO.

However, I never said that, did I?

FrancieBrady

markodaly wrote: »

Oh, there is pressure on them as well, more of a longer term pressure. The immediate pressure is on SF though.

If MLD wants to be Tainasite, she needs to get a deal done imo.

Alex Kane just contradicted this point on SOR on RTE there now.

His sense of it is that DUP will be frantic to avoid an election at all costs at this stage. No 'longer term' at all. They have lost in Local, General, European and in Westminster. There is according to Kane 'a huge possibility that they would further lose the First Minister job in new elections' and is the reason they will avoid that danger like the plague.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Do you see any pressure on the DUP at all? Did you completely miss their part in this?

Of course there is pressure on the DUP, but they don't need or want majority support, they just want to be a blocking minority. The pressure on that kind of position is always less.

Also, last I checked, they won't be running candidates in the general election down here.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

Pedantic nonsense. If it helps you to climb off your self-constructed pillar of ridiculosity, yes, the unionists have to reject the nonsense of the DUP.

No, I don't include the SDLP in my inference, I should also have said "recent violent terrorist heritage" before you start talking about history, something that sectarians are prone to do. I don't need another pontifical lecture about the history of all nationalist parties, the thing is, only one has terrorists currently campaigning for them.

The fact that you get bogged down in detailed semantics to prove a point is emblematic (and that is one word I picked deliberately) of the problem in the same way that the childish SF want an Irish Languages Act rather than a Minorities Language Act.

:D What was I saying about 'moving away' from what you said?

It can be simply condensed to 'SF bad, everyone else different degrees of good'.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Alex Kane just contradicted this point on SOR on RTE there now.

His sense of it is that DUP will be frantic to avoid an election at all costs at this stage. No 'longer term' at all. They have lost in Local, General, European and in Westminster. There is according to Kane 'a huge possibility that they would further lose the First Minister job in new elections' and is the reason they will avoid that danger like the plague.

Funny that, but I just checked the figures. The DUP, as the largest party, increased their lead over the second-placed party to 7.8% from 6.6% in the recent general election.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

:D What was I saying about 'moving away' from what you said?

It can be simply condensed to 'SF bad, everyone else different degrees of good'.

I agree, but it can be condensed to "SF and DUP bad, everyone else different degrees of good".

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

I agree, but it can be condensed to "SF and DUP bad, everyone else different degrees of good".

I could blow that pivot out of the water too, had I the energy to go back through your posting.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

Funny that, but I just checked the figures. The DUP, as the largest party, increased their lead over the second-placed party to 7.8% from 6.6% in the recent general election.

So you disagree with Kane and almost every other pundit that the 2019 General Election was a disaster for the DUP?

Ha ha ha, blanch, criticises the Green/Orange centric politics of NI but happily indulges in it when it suits him. 'As long as the DUP beat SF, it's a win for the DUP....'

Brilliant really!

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

So you disagree with Kane and almost every other pundit that the 2019 General Election was a disaster for the DUP?

Ha ha ha, blanch, criticises the Green/Orange centric politics of NI but happily indulges in it when it suits him. 'As long as the DUP beat SF, it's a win for the DUP....'

Brilliant really!

Nope, I don't disagree with him, that the election was a disaster for the DUP.

Too many people are falling into the trap of thinking that a disastorous election for the DUP automatically means a good election for SF.

This was a bad election for the extremes.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

Nope, I don't disagree with him, that the election was a disaster for the DUP.

Too many people are falling into the trap of thinking that a disastorous election for the DUP automatically means a good election for SF.

This was a bad election for the extremes.

Who has said that?

You got caught playing the Green/Orange game you stridently claim is of no importance because in the 'moment' it suited you to play it.

An Ciarraioch

Slugger O'Toole's data analyst has attempted to predict the next Stormont election, and predicts the "big two" will become the "big three":

DUP 27 (-1)
SF 22 (-5)
Alliance 16 (+8)
SDLP 11 (-1)
UUP 9 (-1)
Green 2 (-)
PBP 2 (+1)
TUV 1 (-)
Ind U 0 (-1)

Unionist 37 (-3)
Nationalist 33 (-6)
Other 20 (+9)

https://sluggerotoole.com/2019/12/15/what-could-the-surge-of-centre-ground-parties-mean-for-a-possible-2020-assembly-election/

golfball37

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Slugger O'Toole's data analyst has attempted to predict the next Stormont election, and predicts the "big two" will become the "big three":

DUP 27 (-1)
SF 22 (-5)
Alliance 16 (+8)
SDLP 11 (-1)
UUP 9 (-1)
Green 2 (-)
PBP 2 (+1)
TUV 1 (-)
Ind U 0 (-1)

Unionist 37 (-3)
Nationalist 33 (-6)
Other 20 (+9)

https://sluggerotoole.com/2019/12/15/what-could-the-surge-of-centre-ground-parties-mean-for-a-possible-2020-assembly-election/

Re-assuring that Jim Allister holds on in this analysis.

Dyr

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Slugger O'Toole's data analyst has attempted to predict the next Stormont election, and predicts the "big two" will become the "big three":

DUP 27 (-1)
SF 22 (-5)
Alliance 16 (+8)
SDLP 11 (-1)
UUP 9 (-1)
Green 2 (-)
PBP 2 (+1)
TUV 1 (-)
Ind U 0 (-1)

He's smart chap so he stuck a massive health warning on that prediction, I think the council and euros might be a better predictor than westminister elections

FrancieBrady

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Slugger O'Toole's data analyst has attempted to predict the next Stormont election, and predicts the "big two" will become the "big three":

DUP 27 (-1)
SF 22 (-5)
Alliance 16 (+8)
SDLP 11 (-1)
UUP 9 (-1)
Green 2 (-)
PBP 2 (+1)
TUV 1 (-)
Ind U 0 (-1)

Unionist 37 (-3)
Nationalist 33 (-6)
Other 20 (+9)

https://sluggerotoole.com/2019/12/15/what-could-the-surge-of-centre-ground-parties-mean-for-a-possible-2020-assembly-election/

That's if there is fresh Assembly elections early in 2020. Which I wouldn't disagree with tbh.
However if the Assembly gets up and functioning again I would see lent votes returning to base.

Then we will get to see what effect actual Brexit has.

jm08

markodaly wrote: »

This!

I am very very glad that the Alliance vote share went up by so much.
A great success.

The future of NI needs parties like Alliance if it is going to make a go of it in the modern European sphere of politic. Politics should be about policy, not what street were you born on, or did your father wear a sash/sing rebel songs.

The Green/Orange endless debate about the constitutional question is both boring and tiresome. Outbreeding your rivals is not an answer and is a recipe for disaster in the longer run. It will be resolved in due course, but its going to take decades imo for any form of UI to take place.

There seems to be a big push now to get Stormont up and running, especially by SF seeing as their vote is down by 25%. There is an imminent election here in the South, so they have huge interest now in getting a deal done.

Do you think that abortion would have been decriminalised or same sex marriage legalised in Stormont?



People have very short memories as to how effective the Stormont Assembly is.

Junkyard Tom

blanch152 wrote: »

I have a wish for a more integrated Europe, one that further reduces the importance of nationalism.

I want a federal EU because I'm an Irish Nationalist. Brexit has shown us that that being in the EU has helped the Irish government act on behalf of the entire Irish Nation which disregards the boundary.

Britain/England has, for centuries, been the greatest threat to the security and prosperity of the Irish people. Ireland being integrated in the EU with Britain out, and eventually out of the northeast of the country, is the best way forward.

blanch152

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

I want a federal EU because I'm an Irish Nationalist. Brexit has shown us that that being in the EU has helped the Irish government act on behalf of the entire Irish Nation which disregards the boundary.

Britain/England has, for centuries, been the greatest threat to the security and prosperity of the Irish people. Ireland being integrated in the EU with Britain out, and eventually out of the northeast, of the country is the best way forward.

The best way forward is Britain in the EU with us. That is gone for a decade or more, but we should build towards that again.

charlie14

blanch152 wrote: »

The best way forward is Britain in the EU with us. That is gone for a decade or more, but we should build towards that again.

That was a choice made by England and Wales without the slightest regards for Ireland, NI or Scotland

Far as I`m concerned we would be best using our time building relations with NI and Scotland who both wished to remain in the EU.

FrancieBrady

charlie14 wrote: »

That was a choice made by England and Wales without the slightest regards for Ireland, NI or Scotland

Far as I`m concerned we would be best using our time building relations with NI and Scotland who both wished to remain in the EU.

Work hard to reduce our dependency completely .
The inherent lopsidedness of that Union is going to destroy it anyhow, the less we are involved the better.
The EU is the way forward.

BonnieSituation

blanch152 wrote: »

The best way forward is Britain in the EU with us. That is gone for a decade or more, but we should build towards that again.

Build towards what exactly? Let them at it.

Junkyard Tom

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Work hard to reduce our dependency completely .

Ireland secures €530m EU funding for electricity line connection to France

rte.ie/news/2ndOct2019

It all strengthens our position and when the gears of a UI begin to turn Britain will be dealing with the EU and not just Dublin.

maccored

FrancieBrady wrote: »

That's if there is fresh Assembly elections early in 2020. Which I wouldn't disagree with tbh.
However if the Assembly gets up and functioning again I would see lent votes returning to base.

Then we will get to see what effect actual Brexit has.

Cash for ash has to be sorted out before then - it'd be a bit of a farce to put stormont back together without getting to the bottom of what split it in the first place

NIMAN

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Ireland secures €530m EU funding for electricity line connection to France

rte.ie/news/2ndOct2019

It all strengthens our position and when the gears of a UI begin to turn Britain will be dealing with the EU and not just Dublin.

Would I be right in saying we'll be getting some of our power from nuclear then?

And on a side point, don't we provide all of NI's electricity?

circadian

There's a few power stations in the North, one in Antrim has a high output and Coolkeeragh outside derry is owned by ESB.

An Ciarraioch

26% of 2019 Alliance supporters voting Leave in 2016 is intriguing - suggests many unionists having second thoughts about Brexit?

https://twitter.com/LucidTalk/status/1206699197740781576

Junkyard Tom

NIMAN wrote: »

Would I be right in saying we'll be getting some of our power from nuclear then?

I think about 70% of French power is nuclear so I presume so.