Northern Ireland Westminster General Election

FrancieBrady

ThomasFlynn wrote: »

They'll come a time when the demographics in Fermanagh and South Tyrone will have changed to a point where that a pact unionist candidate can't even win anymore. We might be at that point already.

I can see a lot of the farming and business community abstaining or lending their votes in F/ST

Gerrybadry

This election will be neck and neck. Nationalists will have the same number of seats as unionists: nine.

SF will retain all their seven seats and they will gain Belfast North.

The SDLP will gain Belfast South.

The DUP will retain their other eight seats and might win North Down.

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SharpshooterTom

UUP have confirmed they will not stand in North Belfast to give DUP's Nigel Dodds a run-off with SF's John Finucane.

Well that will help Dodds's chances undoubtedly. I don't think its a great deal for the UUP as although they have the free run in F&ST the demographics are making it increasinly harder for them to point where a pact is now struggling, its a better deal for the DUP than it is for the UUP.

Will SDLP run Nicola Mallon in North Belfast now? Or will there be a wink and a nod given to run a 'weaker' candidate to allow Finucane maximise the nationalist vote?

All eyes will now be on Sinn Fein in South Belfast to see if they now run there. They haven't announced a candidate as of yet.

It really depends on whether their hatred of Pengelly will put aside their electoral rivalry with the SDLP to defeat a common enemy or do Sinn Fein take their competition so seriously with the SDLP that they're willing to risk allowing Pengelly back in.

Pengelly will lose if Hanna gets a free run but if Sinn Fein do field a candidate her chances of returning would be greater than 50%.

votecounts

So unionists will support a remain candidate in one area and a brexiteer in another so they can defeat the shinner. At least Aiken has been shown for the weak person and flip flopper he is even before he takes up the leadership role.

johnnyskeleton

Yes, its a little dissappointing that NI community politics is more important than Brexit for them. Its baffling for people outside of NI but then again, a lot of UK seats will be party and policy over pure brexit (to a greater or lesser extent).

Also, SF stepping aside for SDLP may have encouraged the UUP to play their part, but dems the breaks

SharpshooterTom

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Also, SF stepping aside for SDLP may have encouraged the UUP to play their part, but dems the breaks

SF haven't stepped aside for anyone yet.

NIMAN

Nice to see the most important thing in NI politics is still 'keeping the other side out'.

21st century, eh?

johnnyskeleton

ThomasFlynn wrote: »

SF haven't stepped aside for anyone yet.

The point being that the UUP may have been more inclined to split the DUP vote if the only nationalist choice was SDLP

SharpshooterTom

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

The point being that the UUP may have been more inclined to split the DUP vote if the only nationalist choice was SDLP

I actually think they might be less likely to.

Its not just Sinn Fein the UUP & DUP have a problem with, its nationalism in general.

So if Sinn Fein pull out of South Belfast making it more likely for the SDLP to win, there will be calls in future elections for the UUP likewise to step aside in South Belfast and allow the DUP to maximise the unionist vote.

SharpshooterTom

NIMAN wrote: »

Nice to see the most important thing in NI politics is still 'keeping the other side out'.

21st century, eh?

I don't like to overly pick sides here, but sectarian pacts are primarily a unionist thing responding to ongoing declining demographics of the protestant community.
Its a sign of pure desperation.

They'd rather go to extreme lengths to maximise out remaining protestant votes rather than moderate and reach out to catholic voters.

Its a terrible tactic in the long term as there will be a point where the demographics have changed in certain seats where a unionist pacts can no longer work. So not reaching out to catholics and playing a prods only strategy is incredibly short sighted and dumb, but they're too bigoted to see it any differently.

NIMAN

ThomasFlynn wrote: »

I don't like to overly pick sides here, but sectarian pacts are primarily a unionist thing responding to ongoing declining demographics of the protestant community.
Its a sign of pure desperation.

They'd rather go to extreme lengths to maximise out remaining protestant votes rather than moderate and reach out to catholic voters.

Its a terrible tactic in the long term as there will be a point where the demographics have changed in certain seats where a unionist pacts can no longer work. So not reaching out to catholics and playing a prods only strategy is incredibly short sighted and dumb, but they're too bigoted to see it any differently.

What you say has of course generally been the way in the past, but the other side playing at it now.

https://www.bbc.com/news/election-2019-50284144

Only thing I would say is that they are dressing it up as trying to maximise the pro-Remain vote and as such not sectarian, whereas the UUP/DUP ones are not the same.

BonnieSituation

NIMAN wrote: »

What you say has of course generally been the way in the past, but the other side playing at it now.

https://www.bbc.com/news/election-2019-50284144

Only thing I would say is that they are dressing it up as trying to maximise the pro-Remain vote and as such not sectarian, whereas the UUP/DUP ones are not the same.

It's a bit disingenuous to say the others "are at it as well".

The SDLP have called this a pro-Remain decision. I agree, that there's elements of maximising the nationalist vote to consider in the decision, but it's also the case that most Nationalists will also be remainers.

It's not got any of the tarnish if Aiken's U-turn who has ruined his leadership before it began.

A better stance would have been to stand up to the bullies and the threats. But that will all be ignored now that they've gone what they've done.

I mean from an SDLP standing in North Down is pointless anyway, and why risk Sylvia Hermon not being returned with what few Nationalists there are when they can lend their vote to the incumbent. She's been the only moderate in the HoC and her work on the NI Committee has been commendable considering the other shower, and needs to be continued.

Bass Reeves

NIMAN wrote: »

What you say has of course generally been the way in the past, but the other side playing at it now.

https://www.bbc.com/news/election-2019-50284144

Only thing I would say is that they are dressing it up as trying to maximise the pro-Remain vote and as such not sectarian, whereas the UUP/DUP ones are not the same.

The problem is the British election is what is referred to as first past the post. It is single seat and the person with the highest number of votes get elected. The remain/soft Brexit side is much more fractured than the Brexit side. There is Labour(not 100%remain) the Liberals, Greens, Independent party all seeking seats while you have UKIP and the Conservative party on the other side. If the remain/soft Brexit side do not have a pact then a Conservative victory could happen with a mid 30's vote percentage.

This is why SF not willing to take it's seats should step aside. As I said this is a generation defining election. The good end of the troubles and the GF agreement was a generation defining moment of those who are in there 50&60's this is one for the present younger generation as it is they who will have to deal with the economic conquences. A generational event is a once in a 25-30 year event

FrancieBrady

Point of Order, electoral pacts are NOT sectarian. Electoral pacts to consolidate legitimate Unionist or nationalist positions are not sectarian either.

And as a sidepoint, electoral pacts are not uncommon, either here or elsewhere.

SharpshooterTom

Well well well SDLP have now officially pulled out of North Belfast, East Belfast, and North Down.

Surprised they are still standing in F&ST, I guess its on the basis UUP are remain.

Badabing

Presumably Sinn Fein will stand down in South Belfast now? Give Hanna a clear run at Dodds. That will be fascinating

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Point of Order, electoral pacts are NOT sectarian. Electoral pacts to consolidate legitimate Unionist or nationalist positions are not sectarian either.

And as a sidepoint, electoral pacts are not uncommon, either here or elsewhere.

NIMAN wrote: »

Nice to see the most important thing in NI politics is still 'keeping the other side out'.

21st century, eh?

I tend to agree with NIMAN rather than Francie here.

The behaviour on both sides is really sad and depressing. Neither side can hold themselves up on this occasion.

FrancieBrady

ThomasFlynn wrote: »

Well well well SDLP have now officially pulled out of North Belfast, East Belfast, and North Down.

Surprised they are still standing in F&ST, I guess its on the basis UUP are remain.

The UUP/DUP pact is certainly about consolidating the Unionist position.

This SDLP one is very clearly an attempt to consolidate a Remain rather than a Nationalist position.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

I tend to agree with NIMAN rather than Francie here.

The behaviour on both sides is really sad and depressing. Neither side can hold themselves up on this occasion.

I would have said that given NI is an artificially constructed majority that this is inevitable and always has been rather than 'sad or depressing'.

This is the political reality people have to live in and function in for 100 years.

coolshannagh28

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I would have said that given NI is an artificially constructed majority that this is inevitable and always has been rather than 'sad or depressing'.

This is the political reality people have to live in and function in for 100 years.

True , that is the monstrous truth of NI , the only light at the end of the tunnel is that the current deal holds out the hope of eventual reunification whatever the ultimate price may be .
I don't think and hope the NI election will matter as much this time as I see Johnston getting a majority and the sentiment seems to be that this deal is the deal .

FrancieBrady

coolshannagh28 wrote: »

True , that is the monstrous truth of NI , the only light at the end of the tunnel is that the current deal holds out the hope of eventual reunification whatever the ultimate price may be .
I don't think and hope the NI election will matter as much this time as I see Johnston getting a majority and the sentiment seems to be that this deal is the deal .

I agree. Other than watching on, there is little we can do about who comes to power in the UK, the DUP are a busted flush as the Unionist bloc they are seeking to bring will be more or less the same as before.

The important thing is that a strong 'remain' vote is evident. Have to say, I too am looking forward to the battle between Dodds and Hanna.
I think the SDLP have a huge uphill battle to regain trust across northern Ireland and seem still prone to wrong headed political choices but I respect the efforts of Hanna and Eastwood.

coolshannagh28

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I agree. Other than watching on, there is little we can do about who comes to power in the UK, the DUP are a busted flush as the Unionist bloc they are seeking to bring will be more or less the same as before.

The important thing is that a strong 'remain' vote is evident. Have to say, I too am looking forward to the battle between Dodds and Hanna.
I think the SDLP have a huge uphill battle to regain trust across northern Ireland and seem still prone to wrong headed political choices but I respect the efforts of Hanna and Eastwood.

UUP and SDLP are virtually irrelevant , their hope must be that DUP have so annoyed their vote that some may drift to UUP but alliance are in the game too and on the nationalist side that weak SF leadership may slip votes to SDLP as in the south . Hanna is a good performer but Dodds is smart and ruthless and the debates should be interesting .

votecounts

Badabing wrote: »

Presumably Sinn Fein will stand down in South Belfast now? Give Hanna a clear run at Dodds. That will be fascinating

Thats Pengellys seat, Dodds is north Belfast. Going to be interesting at least.

votecounts

NIMAN wrote: »

Nice to see the most important thing in NI politics is still 'keeping the other side out'.

21st century, eh?

It is worse on the Unionist side as they are voting for a brexiteer rather than a remainer. At least with the nationalist side, they are voting for a remain candidate. Sure Arlene, despite her stating that they are the most powerful party in the North did not have the proverbials to run in her constituency because she knew would get destroyed for supporting Brexit.

Badabing

Sinn Fein pull out of S Belfast E Belfast and N Down. DUP under severe pressure now in all 3. E Belfast should stay DUP but majority will be well down.

Dubh Geannain

Not a big Sinn Féin lover or hater but the below speaks volumes of where they are at in comparison to the DUP. I can't imagine the DUP ever okaying their voters to back any party that is not unionist.

It's no loss to Sinn Féin obviously here as they wouldn't have been in the running but it still makes for good optics for them that they are willing to acknowledge the concept of Unionism and there is the possibility to share common ground on other subjects.

She said it sat comfortably with her to urge Sinn Féin supporters to vote for Ms Harmon.

"It sits very comfortably with me to ask and invite voters to thoughtfully do the right thing," she said.

"And in this case it means defying hard Brexiteers, the likes of Nigel Dodds, the likes of the DUP candidates who have very, very recklessly acted against the interests of everybody.

"Whether you call yourself a unionist or a nationalist, a republican or a loyalist, we actually have many, many interests in common."

https://www.rte.ie/news/ulster/2019/1104/1088516-election-northern-ireland/

Francie Barrett

Sinn Fein standing down in South Belfast means it will almost certainly go to the SDLP, the nationalist vote would have to utterly implode for that not to happen. North Belfast is going to be an absolute bloodbath with Dodds and Finucane going toe to toe and almost nothing splitting the two. You can be sure that Sinn Fein are going to be throwing absolutely everything they have here to get Dodds out. With the demographics always shifting against unionism, I think Sinn Fein might just have enough to squeak in here as increased turnouts in the North tend to benefit them.

The bigger picture is interesting though. For the first time ever, we could be looking at Northern Ireland returning an equal number of unionist and nationalist MP's.

DUP 8 (-2)
Sinn Fein 8 (+1)
SDLP 1 (+1)
Hermon 1 (no change)

jm08

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Sinn Fein standing down in South Belfast means it will almost certainly go to the SDLP, the nationalist vote would have to utterly implode for that not to happen. North Belfast is going to be an absolute bloodbath with Dodds and Finucane going toe to toe and almost nothing splitting the two. You can be sure that Sinn Fein are going to be throwing absolutely everything they have here to get Dodds out. With the demographics always shifting against unionism, I think Sinn Fein might just have enough to squeak in here as increased turnouts in the North tend to benefit them.

The bigger picture is interesting though. For the first time ever, we could be looking at Northern Ireland returning an equal number of unionist and nationalist MP's.

DUP 8 (-2)
Sinn Fein 8 (+1)
SDLP 1 (+1)
Hermon 1 (no change)

Lady Hermon's danger is coming from Alliance and Greens (who both got about 3K votes the last time). They need to step back and let her at it.

L1011

SF moves is unprecedented, sensible and welcome. When you're stuck with that awful voting system needs must sometimes.

FrancieBrady

jm08 wrote: »

Lady Hermon's danger is coming from Alliance and Greens (who both got about 3K votes the last time). They need to step back and let her at it.

I think her performance through the Brexit debacle will be enough to see her home this time.