Northern Ireland Westminster General Election

is_that_so · 04-11-2019 5:24pm

L1011 wrote: »

SF moves is unprecedented, sensible and welcome. When you're stuck with that awful voting system needs must sometimes.

It was something I wondered about and very mature of them to do so. One of the better days for NI politics, even if it doesn't work out in all three cases.

SharpshooterTom · 04-11-2019 6:27pm

DUP are still favourites in North Belfast.

2017

DUP = 21,240
Sinn Fein + SDLP = 21,217

It would be useful for Sinn Fein if the greens and the workers party could pull out as well. They got over 1,000 votes combined last time.

Dyr · 04-11-2019 7:26pm

ThomasFlynn wrote: »

DUP are still favourites in North Belfast.

2017

DUP = 21,240
Sinn Fein + SDLP = 21,217

It would be useful for Sinn Fein if the greens and the workers party could pull out as well. They got over 1,000 votes combined last time.

If SF have a clear run at Dodds I could see them take it.

Will be a dog fight and no doubt shenanigans galore

An Ciarraioch · 04-11-2019 9:09pm

ThomasFlynn wrote: »

DUP are still favourites in North Belfast.

2017

DUP = 21,240
Sinn Fein + SDLP = 21,217

It would be useful for Sinn Fein if the greens and the workers party could pull out as well. They got over 1,000 votes combined last time.

23 votes seems very little, considering the demographics of new voters in the constituency.

darem93 · 04-11-2019 10:28pm

Naomi has ruled out any sort of pact on Twitter, which is totally fair and I understand her position, but it would have been very helpful for both South and North Belfast.

North Belfast is going to be a total bloodbath I think. That will definitely be a tense one to watch when the results are announced the next day. Now that the SDLP have pulled out, Sinn Fein could just nab it. Although their vote was very much on the rise in 2017, so whether they will replicate that success this time seems unlikely. Plus the DUP will go at it hammer and tongs and scare the Unionists there that they have no choice but to go out and vote for Dodds. I just get the bad feeling he will get it by the skin of his teeth.

Fantastic to see Sinn Fein supporting Sylvia Hermon in North Down, especially with her being a Unionist. I don't agree with her constitutional stance, but I do think she has done Northern Ireland proud in Westminster. I do kind of worry though that this endorsement is going to give the DUP major ammo and make things harder for her.

Francie Barrett · 05-11-2019 10:22pm

darem93 wrote: »

Plus the DUP will go at it hammer and tongs and scare the Unionists there that they have no choice but to go out and vote for Dodds. I just get the bad feeling he will get it by the skin of his teeth.

The DUP had free run at the seat 2 years ago, there are no additional votes to pick up bar those from the folks who don't get out and vote. Sinn Fein will pick up most of the SDLP vote, and will probably take some votes from the other parties. When you combine this with the Sinn Fein electoral machine (the best in NI), I think they can squeak it.

NIMAN · 05-11-2019 10:37pm

This is probably the most important election yet to get as many voters out as possible.

Would be great to see a figure in the 70/80% ballpark, but there is still a lot of apathy among ni voters.

circadian · 06-11-2019 9:31am

NIMAN wrote: »

This is probably the most important election yet to get as many voters out as possible.

Would be great to see a figure in the 70/80% ballpark, but there is still a lot of apathy among ni voters.

I'd imagine the border areas will have a higher than normal return since that's where the biggest effect will be felt in the event of a crash out.

Mr.Nice Guy · 06-11-2019 7:00pm

Big news. Sylvia Hermon confirms she's not standing in North Down.

An Ciarraioch · 06-11-2019 7:47pm

Stephen Farry, the Alliance deputy leader, is the candidate in that constituency, but an uphill battle to defeat the DUP.

darem93 · 06-11-2019 8:11pm

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Big news. Sylvia Hermon confirms she's not standing in North Down.

That's a massive shame, she'll be a big loss. I'd say this will be an easy win for the DUP now unfortunately

Nidgeweasel · 06-11-2019 8:12pm

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Big news. Sylvia Hermon confirms she's not standing in North Down.

Clear run for the DUP.

FrancieBrady · 06-11-2019 8:21pm

Is she a party of one? You think there would be someone else willing to go forward.

Francie Barrett · 06-11-2019 8:24pm

Sinn Fein and Sdlp must feel silly now withdrawing only to back a candidate who isn't standing.

jm08 · 06-11-2019 9:45pm

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Sinn Fein and Sdlp must feel silly now withdrawing only to back a candidate who isn't standing.

Its a unionist seat anyway. Last time out the SF candidate got 500 votes and the SDLP got 400!

https://www.bbc.com/news/politics/constituencies/N06000013

Bass Reeves · 06-11-2019 10:15pm

jm08 wrote: »

Its a unionist seat anyway. Last time out the SF candidate got 500 votes and the SDLP got 400!

https://www.bbc.com/news/politics/constituencies/N06000013

Although a unionist seat the MP elected to it have had an independent streak in them sine the 70's. I suspect that the DUP will not take the seat

Dyr · 06-11-2019 10:56pm

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Sinn Fein and Sdlp must feel silly now withdrawing only to back a candidate who isn't standing.

Never back someone elses horse unless you're sure it's f****in running

markodaly · 07-11-2019 12:42pm

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Stephen Farry, the Alliance deputy leader, is the candidate in that constituency, but an uphill battle to defeat the DUP.

Many of her voters will turn to Alliance but Id say the DUP would be too strong in the end.

markodaly · 07-11-2019 12:59pm

This will be an interesting election.

Some of my predictions.

Belfast South will switch from DUP to SDLP
Belfast East will switch from DUP to Alliance
Belfast North is a 50/50 toss up, SF may sneak in.
North Down will go to the DUP
Foyle will switch from SF to SDLP
South Down will switch from SF to SDLP
South Antrim will switch from DUP to UUP

Which will mean

DUP 7
SF 6
SDLP 3
Alliance 1
UUP 1

More remain MP's elected but odd that they will be in a minority in the HoC.
Also, no Unionist MP elected in Belfast.

Nidgeweasel · 07-11-2019 3:07pm

markodaly wrote: »

This will be an interesting election.

Some of my predictions.

Belfast South will switch from DUP to SDLP
Belfast East will switch from DUP to Alliance
Belfast North is a 50/50 toss up, SF may sneak in.
North Down will go to the DUP
Foyle will switch from SF to SDLP
South Down will switch from SF to SDLP
South Antrim will switch from DUP to UUP

Which will mean

DUP 7
SF 6
SDLP 3
Alliance 1
UUP 1

More remain MP's elected but odd that they will be in a minority in the HoC.
Also, no Unionist MP elected in Belfast.

Who are the SDLP running in South Down?

FrancieBrady · 07-11-2019 3:17pm

Nidgeweasel wrote: »

Who are the SDLP running in South Down?

Baroness Ritchie I presume, unless I missed her saying she was retiring?

Nidgeweasel · 07-11-2019 3:22pm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Baroness Ritchie I presume, unless I missed her saying she was retiring?

She resigned from the SDLP over her peerage.

edit* a moot point really because she can't sit in the commons anymore now anyway!

FrancieBrady · 07-11-2019 3:27pm

Nidgeweasel wrote: »

She resigned from the SDLP over her peerage.

Missed that.

Can't find out who the new candidate is.

Bass Reeves · 07-11-2019 3:37pm

markodaly wrote: »

This will be an interesting election.

Some of my predictions.

Belfast South will switch from DUP to SDLP
Belfast East will switch from DUP to Alliance
Belfast North is a 50/50 toss up, SF may sneak in.
North Down will go to the DUP
Foyle will switch from SF to SDLP
South Down will switch from SF to SDLP
South Antrim will switch from DUP to UUP

Which will mean

DUP 7
SF 6
SDLP 3
Alliance 1
UUP 1

More remain MP's elected but odd that they will be in a minority in the HoC.
Also, no Unionist MP elected in Belfast.

I think North Down could surprise people. Traditionally it was a UUP seat. With Sylvia gone could they stand now if not a lot of Sylvia votes could go to Alliance. If the Greens, SF and SDLP stay out then Alliance could be on 7K+. I have expected the DUP to drop some votes here if Sylvia stood on a remain platform. DUP will need to hit 18K to win it. If the UUP stand then it could be a strange one

An Ciarraioch · 07-11-2019 8:44pm

59% unionist vote there, though, in 2017:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Upper_Bann_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2010s

FrancieBrady · 07-11-2019 8:56pm

Sylvia Hermons Horse wrote: »

Yes but if you take away the SDLP votes the SF vote would be close enough to that.

East (London)Derry is another place where the SDLP could stand aside for SF. The constituency voted remain and it would be an opportunity to remove that douchebag Gregory Campbell.

Upper Bann and East (London)Derry are the only places where SF have a chance at defeating the DUP outside North Belfast.

What needs to be borne in mind is that one more nationalist MP than unionists and a border poll is called under the GFA.

Where are you getting that from...it isn't automatically the case.

votecounts · 07-11-2019 9:17pm

Sylvia Hermons Horse wrote: »

Yes but if you take away the SDLP votes the SF vote would be close enough to that.

East (London)Derry is another place where the SDLP could stand aside for SF. The constituency voted remain and it would be an opportunity to remove that douchebag Gregory Campbell.

Upper Bann and East (London)Derry are the only places where SF have a chance at defeating the DUP outside North Belfast.

What needs to be borne in mind is that one more nationalist MP than unionists and a border poll is called under the GFA.

That is completely wrong, seriously actually read the Good Friday Agreement and not post rubbish.

FrancieBrady · 07-11-2019 9:27pm

Sylvia Hermons Horse wrote: »

I have read it. A border poll must be called if the majority of those voting in the Six Counties consent. A nationalist majority in Westminster would display this.

Wrong - a vote will be called at the SoS's discretion, if he/she feels it has a chance it would pass.

There is no criteria for that 'feeling'. He could call one now if he wished.

L1011 · 07-11-2019 9:28pm

Sylvia Hermons Horse wrote: »

I have read it. A border poll must be called if the majority of those voting in the Six Counties consent. A nationalist majority in Westminster would display this.

You haven't, because that's not what's said.

The Secretary of State needs to be of the opinion that it may pass. More Nationalist MPs doesn't automatically mean that, particularly with FPTP - and Alliance aren't going to be counted as Nationalist despite what some DUP members accuse them of

L1011 · 07-11-2019 9:36pm

Sylvia Hermons Horse wrote: »

I don't understand.

Let's say all 7 SF MPs retain their seats and gain North Belfast. The SDLP gains South Belfast. SF also gains 1 other seat. The remaining 8 seats are filled by unionists. There are 10 nationalist MPs and 8 unionist MPs.

That means the majority of the NI electorate have voted for nationalist pro-reunification candidates. This shows to the SoS that the majority of the electorate support reunification, thus a border poll is called.

With FPTP that does not mean a majority have voted for it - South Belfast in a previous more competitive election was won on 24.5%.

To get a majority of TDs down here you need damn close to 50% of the vote, because we have a proper sane voting system. FPTP is neither.

Northern Ireland Westminster General Election

Comments