Northern Ireland Westminster General Election

Bass Reeves

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Partition made a mess of Irish politics and has now contributed in a huge way to making a mess of UK politics.

The problems of Brexit are just yet another manifestation of the lunacy of creating an artificial majority by selectively partitioning an island.

No partition and the UK would be out and gone and dealing with the consequences.

You always go back to that BS when you are caught offside.

We have to deal with reality. SF signed up to the GF agreement. That means they recognized NI as part of the UK. They accepted that NI has the right to remain in the UK or become part of the Irish Republic....if we are willing to accept NI as part of the Republic. We have got on quite well without them.

That means that SF should work all the political institutions on both sides of the border(god bless it). By the time there a majority in NI against partition, there may be a majority in the Republic for it because of the carry on up there.

I go back to my bottle of Powers no French sh!t for me thank you.

FrancieBrady

Bass Reeves wrote: »

You always go back to that BS when you are caught offside.

We have to deal with reality. SF signed up to the GF agreement. That means they recognized NI as part of the UK. They accepted that NI has the right to remain in the UK or become part of the Irish Republic....if we are willing to accept NI as part of the Republic. We have got on quite well without them.

That means that SF should work all the political institutions on both sides of the border(god bless it). By the time there a majority in NI against partition, there may be a majority in the Republic for it because of the carry on up there.

I go back to my bottle of Powers no French sh!t for me thank you.

Caught offside? How so?

What is stopping the UK getting out of the EU?
Partition is the root cause of the reason they cannot get out, even though they have tried on (is it) 4 occasions now to ignore Unionists.

They never considered it would come back to bite them so massively when they issued Art 50.
They do now and that will factor into the future too.

blanch152

Bass Reeves wrote: »

No point in voting for SF so. SF should step aside for SDLP in every case. A vote for SF is a vote wasted from what you are saying as SF will not vote in Westminister. It could step aside and advise all it voters to vot for pro remain parties as it will not attend Westminister.

SF will be the biggest loser long term. It by default is aiding Brexit a vote for SF is a vote for Brexit by default.

This is the key issue of the election.

How will voting for Sinn Fein in this election help to stop Brexit? As far as I can see, it is no help at all.

NIMAN

blanch152 wrote: »

This is the key issue of the election.

How will voting for Sinn Fein in this election help to stop Brexit? As far as I can see, it is no help at all.

... unless they have a secret plan to take their seats:eek:

An Ciarraioch

blanch152 wrote: »

This is the key issue of the election.

How will voting for Sinn Fein in this election help to stop Brexit? As far as I can see, it is no help at all.

If it means one less DUP seat, it'll help to that extent.

circadian

In some constituencies SF are very close to the DUP, getting as many sdlp votes as they can could tip it over the line. It's better to prevent them a seat even if it means voting someone who won't sit in parliament.

Fionn1952

blanch152 wrote: »

This is the key issue of the election.

How will voting for Sinn Fein in this election help to stop Brexit? As far as I can see, it is no help at all.

You're being facetious, Blanch. You know full well that many constituencies in the North are a two horse race between SF and the DUP. The gap to third place is far too big to be overcome in one election.

Yes, ideally the local people would be able to cast a +1 or a -1 vote regarding Brexit support in Westminster, but obviously if you want to stop Brexit a 0 vote is better than a +1 vote. Voting SF helps stop Brexit by removing a Brexit supporting DUP candidate from Westminster. It isn't complex.

If I still lived there, my vote would be made tactically based on who has the best chance of stopping the DUP taking the seat. I'd vote Alliance, SF, SDLP and I'd even vote UUP if they had the best chance of taking a seat from DUP. As I mentioned before, I have personal reasons why I've said I'd never vote SDLP, but in this election, I'd hold my nose, swallow my pride and get on with it.

It's nasty, its anti-politics to vote against a party rather than for a party, but with the potential Brexit has to screw the North, I'm considering very temporarily relocating back home for a short period just to have a vote on the matter, and I'll be voting, 'anyone but them', even if that anyone is SF.

Who would you vote for in a two horse race between SF and DUP, based on Brexit?

FrancieBrady

Fionn1952 wrote: »

You're being facetious, Blanch. You know full well that many constituencies in the North are a two horse race between SF and the DUP. The gap to third place is far too big to be overcome in one election.

Yes, ideally the local people would be able to cast a +1 or a -1 vote regarding Brexit support in Westminster, but obviously if you want to stop Brexit a 0 vote is better than a +1 vote. Voting SF helps stop Brexit by removing a Brexit supporting DUP candidate from Westminster. It isn't complex.

If I still lived there, my vote would be made tactically based on who has the best chance of stopping the DUP taking the seat. I'd vote Alliance, SF, SDLP and I'd even vote UUP if they had the best chance of taking a seat from DUP. As I mentioned before, I have personal reasons why I've said I'd never vote SDLP, but in this election, I'd hold my nose, swallow my pride and get on with it.

It's nasty, its anti-politics to vote against a party rather than for a party, but with the potential Brexit has to screw the North, I'm considering very temporarily relocating back home for a short period just to have a vote on the matter, and I'll be voting, 'anyone but them', even if that anyone is SF.

Who would you vote for in a two horse race between SF and DUP, based on Brexit?

Can't think of the commentators name on the View programme, but she made the point: there is nothing abnormal or nasty about pacts, it's simply 'Politics'. Politics is tactical from the get go anyhow.

There will be many who will try and throw the same old 'green and orange' schtick at this but it isn't, it has moved beyond G&O, with SF backing a Unionist.
For me anyhow, (and I see it was more or less ignored by the media) that was a very welcome crossing of a 'Rubicon'.

*Good question at the end there for anyone.

liamtech

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Can't think of the commentators name on the View programme, but she made the point: there is nothing abnormal or nasty about pacts, it's simply 'Politics'. Politics is tactical from the get go anyhow.

There will be many who will try and throw the same old 'green and orange' schtick at this but it isn't, it has moved beyond G&O, with SF backing a Unionist.
For me anyhow, (and I see it was more or less ignored by the media) that was a very welcome crossing of a 'Rubicon'.

*Good question at the end there for anyone.

I partially agree with you, but i think the change has been mainly on the Green side of the divide. SF standing aside for unionist, and alliance is a definite crossing of the Rubicon.

But unfortunately the Unionist side of Northern Irish Politics, remains in my view, very tribal in terms of its approach. Again i would state that it is my view that this is due to the fact of the DUP being the biggest Unionist party. Moderate Unionism remains threatened, and branded treacherous to the unionist cause. DUP majority is maintained by their constant threats, at every election that a vote for any other unionist party, is a vote that will aide 'republicanism'. And for that reason its perversely ironic that the 'Incumbent Unionist', one might even call it the incumbent form of Unionism, is far more militant than it needs to be

This election is going to be fascinating because the polls coming from the north will indicate where Unionism stands on the past 3 years events.

• RHI Scandal which was the sole responsibility of the DUP
• Disgracefully urging a leave vote, and urging a Hard Harsh Brexit despite it being obvious that said Brexit would damage the GFA - the two are incompatible
• Backing the Conservatives in power, but then switching loyalties to the ERG as Mays Brexit wasn't hard enough
• Ending up completely shafted by their one time allies the Tories
• Complete failure at getting devolved government back in NI
• Prior to the collapse of stormont, shamelessly veto-ing anything and everything they could including Gay Marriage, despite polls showing that the population supported Marriage equality

In any other country in the world, the above list of blunders would result in a harsh rebuke at the ballot box - If this happens in NI, then i would welcome it and agree that NI as a whole is moving forward. but if as i suspect the DUP maintain a large percentage of votes (regardless of perhaps losing a few seats), then it will be a clear that as far as Orange is concerned, we are no where near the Rubicon

All my opinion and happy to discuss

FrancieBrady

liamtech wrote: »

I partially agree with you, but i think the change has been mainly on the Green side of the divide. SF standing aside for unionist, and alliance is a definite crossing of the Rubicon.

But unfortunately the Unionist side of Northern Irish Politics, remains in my view, very tribal in terms of its approach. Again i would state that it is my view that this is due to the fact of the DUP being the biggest Unionist party. Moderate Unionism remains threatened, and branded treacherous to the unionist cause. DUP majority is maintained by their constant threats, at every election that a vote for any other unionist party, is a vote that will aide 'republicanism'. And for that reason its perversely ironic that the 'Incumbent Unionist', one might even call it the incumbent form of Unionism, is far more militant than it needs to be

This election is going to be fascinating because the polls coming from the north will indicate where Unionism stands on the past 3 years events.

• RHI Scandal which was the sole responsibility of the DUP
• Disgracefully urging a leave vote, and urging a Hard Harsh Brexit despite it being obvious that said Brexit would damage the GFA - the two are incompatible
• Backing the Conservatives in power, but then switching loyalties to the ERG as Mays Brexit wasn't hard enough
• Ending up completely shafted by their one time allies the Tories
• Complete failure at getting devolved government back in NI
• Prior to the collapse of stormont, shamelessly veto-ing anything and everything they could including Gay Marriage, despite polls showing that the population supported Marriage equality

In any other country in the world, the above list of blunders would result in a harsh rebuke at the ballot box - If this happens in NI, then i would welcome it and agree that NI as a whole is moving forward. but if as i suspect the DUP maintain a large percentage of votes (regardless of perhaps losing a few seats), then it will be a clear that as far as Orange is concerned, we are no where near the Rubicon

All my opinion and happy to discuss

Good post.

I think change will come slowly, sadly. The 'trench' is very deep after all.

What needs to happen in this election, I think, is for a few DUPers to lose their seats and for the unionist community to see that the sky does not fall in if that happens.
Only the most head in the sand unionist would believe that change in representation is not coming for some of them.
Somebody mentioned the word 'nasty' in relation to the pacts, but that doesn't need to be the way it is. Whoever takes the seat has to be very careful to represent as far as is possible everybody in the constituency and not make the mistakes of the past again.

liamtech

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Good post.

I think change will come slowly, sadly. The 'trench' is very deep after all.

What needs to happen in this election, I think, is for a few DUPers to lose their seats and for the unionist community to see that the sky does not fall in if that happens.
Only the most head in the sand unionist would believe that change in representation is not coming for some of them.
Somebody mentioned the word 'nasty' in relation to the pacts, but that doesn't need to be the way it is. Whoever takes the seat has to be very careful to represent as far as is possible everybody in the constituency and not make the mistakes of the past again.

I agree with you. Northern Irish Politics is very complicated, the problem being that we have two communities who dont wish to lose ground to one another. And therefore Unionists heckle, or perhaps threaten it has been suggested, smaller parties into standing aside, so as to not 'split' their base vote.

The Unionist side in particular behave this way, as we have discussed here. They inevitably tarnish the alliance for not being a unionist party - with some like Jamie Bryson suggesting that with SF standing aside for alliance (proper, logical, sensible), the Alliance is now more nationalist

https://twitter.com/JamieBrysonCPNI/status/1192738755066712064

Obviously Bryson is extreme in his views, but it will raise the eyebrows of Alliance voters within the Unionist communities, especially when the DUP inevitably start talking in the same way

On the other side of the divide i think the Nationalists have conducted themselves far better, but i have one massive criticism; For Remain, it would be far better for Sinn Fein to either take their seats in the HOC, or to stand aside and allow the SDLP to take them.

Of course politically i know they cant. To take their seats once would be a complete shift, go totally against their principles, and potentially split the nationalist vote next time. We can only speculate on what level of support (if any) they would lose if they gave up abstentionism, but its fair to say that it may be a red line for some, in the nationalist community.

The Reason for not standing aside for the SDLP is more complicated, given that they have stepped aside for Claire Hanna in South Belfast. I think the answer to this is two fold:

• Giving up the HOC Election to the SDLP would be damage them long term. The SDLP would obviously argue that if they represent nationalists in the HOC, and are good at doing so, then they should also be seen as an even more credible alternative, if/when the next devolved election takes place
• SF took a hammering in the Local/European elections in Ireland this year. This westminster election and the coverage they receive (along with winning seats) will give them a much needed boost for next years GE in ireland.

Complicated is an understatement, and i feel there are so many angles to approach NI Politics from - iv probably missed a fair few angles but i am happy to discuss this

L1011

SF are likely to have a very embarrassing set of by elections in ROI close enough in time that even taking Belfast North and retaining the rest won't be seen as that positive

That they could very easily lose Foyle and possibly South Down and a slim chance at Fermanagh South Tyrone would ruin any spin chances

liamtech

L1011 wrote: »

SF are likely to have a very embarrassing set of by elections in ROI close enough in time that even taking Belfast North and retaining the rest won't be seen as that positive

That they could very easily lose Foyle and possibly South Down and a slim chance at Fermanagh South Tyrone would ruin any spin chances

Its an interesting point you make, and i wouldnt disagree completely - it all depends on what happens over the course of the next few months i guess

On a slightly related topic

Sinn Fein announce they wont stand against Sylvia Hermon - and days later Sylvia Hermon announces she wont stand - is there a possibility that she saw the SF endorsement as damaging, and would that have influenced her decision to stand down - (perhaps Endorsement too strong a word, but certainly non-aggression, and tacit support for the reasons of Remain)

And if so does this again highlight the Tribal nature of Unionism at the moment - that they dont want Sinn Feins help, even if it would indeed be helpful?

Just asking the question, because i was delighted to hear of SF not standing against her, and within 48hrs if memory serves - shes out

L1011

She hadn't declared as running so I'm willing to believe it was SF/SDLP/GP assuming she was going to run without checking with her personally.

blanch152

liamtech wrote: »

Its an interesting point you make, and i wouldnt disagree completely - it all depends on what happens over the course of the next few months i guess

On a slightly related topic

Sinn Fein announce they wont stand against Sylvia Hermon - and days later Sylvia Hermon announces she wont stand - is there a possibility that she saw the SF endorsement as damaging, and would that have influenced her decision to stand down - (perhaps Endorsement too strong a word, but certainly non-aggression, and tacit support for the reasons of Remain)

And if so does this again highlight the Tribal nature of Unionism at the moment - that they dont want Sinn Feins help, even if it would indeed be helpful?

Just asking the question, because i was delighted to hear of SF not standing against her, and within 48hrs if memory serves - shes out

There is also the possibility that Sinn Fein heard she was stepping down and played for the positives, just the sort of cynical manoeuvre that they are excellent at.

liamtech

blanch152 wrote: »

There is also the possibility that Sinn Fein heard she was stepping down and played for the positives, just the sort of cynical manoeuvre that they are excellent at.

TBH if that were the case, i think Lady Hermon would probably have said as much. Or at the very least someone on her staff would have done so. Obviously i accept that politics is being played by all sides in this crisis, but the immediate accusations aimed at Alliance and SDLP, and aimed too at the UUP, have been purely a product of 'Hard Unionism' - and by that i mean DUP Unionism and unionism inspired by their stances

I wanna be clear i am not endorsing Sinn Fein at all here, and i havent ever really posted on boards about which parties i have and would vote for, had i a vote in this election. I have stated im a leftie, to the left of Blair and slightly to the right of corbyn;) , but im merely highlighting what i see as the current score card for parties in NI in this election, and throughout the brexit period - and to be explicit i will say this

Sinn Fein - remarkably restrained throughout - obviously antagonistic toward hard DUP unioniomism (nothing new, and justified in my opinion) - Unhappy that they wont stand aside for the SDLP, but happy that they have stood aside in South Belfast, and also implicitly supported Alliance

SDLP - Impeccable but hampered by not having a seat in the HOC, and no assembly

UUP - Somewhat helpful in offering to stand against the DUP, before backing down somewhat abruptly - although now being reported as standing against them in South Belfast

PBP - I wont ever understand McCann's support for Brexit, i find it ludicrous - if anything i am reminded of Corbyn - at least McCann had the guts to actually come out FOR Brexit, rather than offering the EU 6.5 outta 10 - i absolve him of being a hypocrite

DUP - an utter disgrace - and this is not the attack of a southerner - i understand and have studied Northern ireland - and i know what Unionism is - it is their right to protect the union - Instead they endorse brexit, (without a sketch of a plan, special place in hell awaits) - supported May, then betrayed her to the ERG, Supported Boris, and now theyre licking their wounds

Alliance - Always respected them and i always will - i feel sorry that in a divided area like NI they cant fully co-operate with SF, the SDLP, and the UUP as Anti Brexit parties - but to do so would be damaging

TUV - look i have yet to see a video where Jim Allister isnt an angry, insulting bigot - he is a disgrace to unionism - and at every opportunity, he plays to his Ultra Right wing base, by insulting everything and everyone he can

Happy to discuss -

FrancieBrady

liamtech wrote: »

PBP - I wont ever understand McCann's support for Brexit, i find it ludicrous - if anything i am reminded of Corbyn - at least McCann had the guts to actually come out FOR Brexit, rather than offering the EU 6.5 outta 10 - i absolve him of being a hypocrite

He's gone a bit silent on it though?

O'Neill

My eye is on West Belfast. I think it will be fascinating. If PBP manage to win that seat, that will be huge and PBP aren't an abstentionist party either.

L1011

O'Neill wrote: »

My eye is on West Belfast. I think it will be fascinating. If PBP manage to win that seat, that will be huge and PBP aren't an abstentionist party either.

There is no chance of them winning the seat.

NIMAN

Are PBP still pro-Brexit?

FrancieBrady

NIMAN wrote: »

Are PBP still pro-Brexit?

I tried to read their policy on it there but to be honest, I gave up.

https://www.pbp.ie/policies/brexit-policy/

BonnieSituation

O'Neill wrote: »

My eye is on West Belfast. I think it will be fascinating. If PBP manage to win that seat, that will be huge and PBP aren't an abstentionist party either.

I mean, if you're calling a seat right now I'm calling that one for SF.

There's not a hope of anyone else getting a sniff of that.

What makes you think that the PBP could make any inroads there?

CrabRevolution

O'Neill wrote: »

My eye is on West Belfast. I think it will be fascinating. If PBP manage to win that seat, that will be huge and PBP aren't an abstentionist party either.

SF have won that seat in all but one election since 1982, and regularly post the largest majority in NI there. There's no chance they'll lose the seat..

liamtech

FrancieBrady wrote: »

He's gone a bit silent on it though?

He has gone quiet enough for sure, but his parties policy could not be less clear if it tried. Nebulousness; a complete farce. Its 'we are against' list is all of the bad effects of leaving the EU. Its 'For list' includes almost every benefit of remaining.

The thing is that McCann and PBP are clearly on the wrong side of Brexit. And i cannot respect anyone, be they DUP, Tory, or TBP, that endorsed leaving the EU. McCann should have known better, but apparently his 'socialist principles' are more important than what is best for the UK, NI, and ROI. He is very Corbyn-esque at this stage, and for that reason, i am very critical of him, and his party.

FYI i have repeatedly said on this forum, and in the Brexit thread, that it gives me no pleasure to attack fellow lefties like Corbyn or McCann. However neither has admitted the truth; that all forms of Brexit are bad for these islands. They only differ by degree of negative impact.

As to taking a seat in Belfast, not a chance in my mind.

O'Neill

BonnieSituation wrote: »

I mean, if you're calling a seat right now I'm calling that one for SF.

There's not a hope of anyone else getting a sniff of that.

What makes you think that the PBP could make any inroads there?

I'm sure SF will win in the end but i'm just saying hypothetically. As for PBP's brexit policy. I agree and it is frustrating especially since for me PBP are the closest party I allign with and as mentioned above is very similar to the issue of the Labour Party. I just wish that they were a bit more pragmatic.

BonnieSituation

O'Neill wrote: »

I'm sure SF will win in the end but i'm just saying hypothetically. As for PBP's brexit policy. I agree and it is frustrating especially since for me PBP are the closest party I allign with and as mentioned above is very similar to the issue of the Labour Party. I just wish that they were a bit more pragmatic.

But hypothetically if the DUP win West Belfast it would be huge. We can run hypotheses all over the shop if you want for shíts and giggles. But it's a futile exercise.

The PBP are useless. If they were pragmatic they'd be in Labour, the SDs, SDLP or SF.

They are the voice of the anti-everythings.

Bass Reeves

BonnieSituation wrote: »

But hypothetically if the DUP win West Belfast it would be huge. We can run hypotheses all over the shop if you want for shíts and giggles. But it's a futile exercise.

The PBP are useless. If they were pragmatic they'd be in Labour, the SDs, SDLP or SF.

They are the voice of the anti-everythings.

A bit like SF

dixiefly

I cannot understand how anyone who is serious about preventing Brexit or reducing its impact would vote sinn fein at this stage.

It is clear that the failure to take up their seats has almost cost a big price in allowing a much stronger Bexit vote in parliament (via DUP) than should be for northern ireland.

I always said that SF should have had a special congress after the Brexit vote in 2016 to discuss taking up their seats because of the need to vote on the various brexit options going forward.

I am v surprised that they have not done this for the current election.

People are writing off the DUP and the impact that they could stil have but, as is possible, if Boris needs the DUP after this election then we could be back to the DUP and the ERG holding the baance of power which would be once again bad for all of ireland.

In my opinion , Snn Fein are a disgrace for not being prepared to reveiw this abstentionist policy in light of the critical issues of Brexit.

Faugheen

dixiefly wrote: »

I cannot understand how anyone who is serious about preventing Brexit or reducing its impact would vote sinn fein at this stage.

It is clear that the failure to take up their seats has almost cost a big price in allowing a much stronger Bexit vote in parliament (via DUP) than should be for northern ireland.

I always said that SF should have had a special congress after the Brexit vote in 2016 to discuss taking up their seats because of the need to vote on the various brexit options going forward.

I am v surprised that they have not done this for the current election.

People are writing off the DUP and the impact that they could stil have but, as is possible, if Boris needs the DUP after this election then we could be back to the DUP and the ERG holding the baance of power which would be once again bad for all of ireland.

In my opinion , Snn Fein are a disgrace for not being prepared to reveiw this abstentionist policy in light of the critical issues of Brexit.

People need to understand this.

Anyone who votes for Sinn Fein is voting for abstention. That is their mandate.

The increase in Sinn Fein MPs over the years is proof their abstention mandate has only got stronger.

BonnieSituation

Faugheen wrote: »

People need to understand this.

Anyone who votes for Sinn Fein is voting for abstention. That is their mandate.

The increase in Sinn Fein MPs over the years is proof their abstention mandate has only got stronger.

People do understand it. It's the few anti-SFers on here and out there that refuse to countenance the idea that abstention is a legitimate mandate, and has been for SF for 100 years.

SF would be a "disgrace", to quote dixiefly above, if they were to take their seats.


And your correct Faughneen re the increase in seats for SF.