10th Annual White Christmas Thread!

Larbre34

Who needs the hassle. As we saw at the beginning of this decade it ruins travel and commerce and family plans, let the festive season pass by and hopefully get a nice snowy spell in January when everyone can batten down at home and enjoy it.

Gonzo

Larbre34 wrote: »

Who needs the hassle. As we saw at the beginning of this decade it ruins travel and commerce and family plans, let the festive season pass by and hopefully get a nice snowy spell in January when everyone can batten down at home and enjoy it.

I do agree with this, I love snow but not when everyone is trying to drive and visit each other in the run up to Christmas. From new years eve onwards is when I like to see the snow. At the same time, a cold frosty Christmas day would do nicely compared to a day of mild south-westerlies.

Logan Roy

esposito wrote: »

Well based on MT’s forecast this morning I think it’s safe to say there won’t be a white Christmas this year. I just hope it’s not exceptionally mild. I’d gladly take temperatures in the 5-8°C range at this stage. Let’s hope this active, mobile regime dissipates in a few weeks time. I’m currently in Wroclaw, Poland and it’s quite mild at 9°C. We need central and eastern Europe to get much colder over the coming weeks for our own prospects down the line. I’m sure it will happen but it’s taking a bit longer than usual.

It's 16 days away, the models are useless after 5 days, let alone 3x that distance away. We won't have any idea what the weather is going to be like for another 10 days at least.

Kermit.de.frog

Gonzo wrote: »

Gonzo

Logan Roy wrote: »

It's 16 days away, the models are useless after 5 days, let alone 3x that distance away. We won't have any idea what the weather is going to be like for another 10 days at least.

right now the GFS operational which I posted above is almost on it's own in terms of mild. Many of the other runs are considerably cooler and a few are bordering on wintry.

Graces7

Gonzo wrote: »

I do agree with this, I love snow but not when everyone is trying to drive and visit each other in the run up to Christmas. From new years eve onwards is when I like to see the snow. At the same time, a cold frosty Christmas day would do nicely compared to a day of mild south-westerlies.

If folk are with families. with a big festive meal. does it matter what the weather is as long as folk can get out and around safely?

Where did this idea of snow being associated with Christmas start?

esposito

Logan Roy wrote: »

It's 16 days away, the models are useless after 5 days, let alone 3x that distance away. We won't have any idea what the weather is going to be like for another 10 days at least.

True but I just have a bad feeling about this Christmas. Anyway, We’ll see what happens. All I want is a few dry, frosty days at this stage. The snow can wait till after Christmas

Billcarson

Gonzo wrote: »

I do agree with this, I love snow but not when everyone is trying to drive and visit each other in the run up to Christmas. From new years eve onwards is when I like to see the snow. At the same time, a cold frosty Christmas day would do nicely compared to a day of mild south-westerlies.

A cold frosty xmas followed by snow around new yrs would be ideal .

ZX7R

Graces7 wrote: »

If folk are with families. with a big festive meal. does it matter what the weather is as long as folk can get out and around safely?

Where did this idea of snow being associated with Christmas start?

The association of snow with Christmas took of in Victorian times ,the writings of Charles Dickens also incrusted this association in our minds it is also around this time Christmas cards became popular.
Winters were also harsh around this time ,I believe a solar minimum was happening.

Gonzo

GFS updated to less milder than this mornings spring like Christmas Day run to something more average with temperatures in the 6 to 9C range and cool north-westerly flow.

Graces7

ZX7R wrote: »

The association of snow with Christmas took of in Victorian times ,the writings of Charles Dickens also incrusted this association in our minds it is also around this time Christmas cards became popular.
Winters were also harsh around this time ,I believe a solar minimum was happening.

Hmm..DIckens a very minor influence if any . Maybe the song " I'm dreaming of a white Christmas" was even more to blame, given the USA influence .. and of course Santy and his sleigh. Australia must be interesting at Christmas.
Probably less important where they do predictably have snow at that time also. Not a great fuss where it is predictable. Remembering my North Sea island years.

Here it is rarer than hens' teeth so hyped more

Logan Roy

esposito wrote: »

True but I just have a bad feeling about this Christmas. Anyway, We’ll see what happens. All I want is a few dry, frosty days at this stage. The snow can wait till after Christmas

I'm the same, not even remotely thinking about snow on Christmas Day. It's very rare in Ireland to get a white Christmas. Cold and frosty would be great though! Not too much to ask is it?

pauldry

Its more likely to snow at Easter than Christmas. Bar 2010 Winter doesnt start until January and now sea temperatures are warmer real Winter starts later and later every year.

Id say now 11c Xmas day is the bookies current favorite for most places but this can change

pauldry

Its changed to slightly colder on latest guidance. 8c would be likely from that. Far from set in stone yet.

Rebelbrowser

pauldry wrote: »

Its changed to slightly colder on latest guidance. 8c would be likely from that. Far from set in stone yet.

Absolutely, the GFS 18z has us in blue colours so a minor victory! Just shows the GFS is little use at 15 days away but can show trends if you dont follow it run by run (but where's the fun in that?!)

Rebelbrowser

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Absolutely, the GFS 18z has us in blue colours so a minor victory! Just shows the GFS is little use at 15 days away but can show trends if you dont follow it run by run (but where's the fun in that?!)

Still a cold Xmas day on this morning's GFS. In fact pretty seasonal from tomorrow to the big day save a couple of milder days around the 22nd.

Jpmarn

The prospect of getting very mild weather in the final run up to Christmas has got a major downgrade. It makes a bit more hopeful for those dreaming of a white Christmas. I think the charts was indicating a fine dry day and the only whiteness is the early frost.
Edit: News not to good for snow fans in the latest gfs run. Although Christmas Eve is now looking pretty cold it looks like a warm front coming in the early hours of Christmas morning. There maybe snow to affect Santa's runaround it would be rain by sunrise.

Harry Palmr

Have yourself a merry mild Christmas?

Live images so this will change quickly enough!

ECM



GSF

Oneiric 3

Below are the EPS & GEFS (00z) temp anomaly forecast for Christmas Eve Night:

EPS:



GEFS:



As of these very early runs, average to slightly below average temps would favour average to slightly warmer by about 60% to 40%.


Let's see how the odds will look tomorrow. All for fun as there will be no clear idea until about 5 days before that sacred night.

M.T. Cranium

Whatever the models are showing now, there is likely to be a strong disturbance somewhere near Ireland around the 25th or 26th. It's a very tightly supported new moon energy peak. This sort of pattern where there are frequent mixings of old arctic air in a fast westerly usually lend themselves to model confusion and a generally milder outcome than you might expect from thickness patterns alone. The air may have low thicknesses but it has been over the Atlantic for days and has to adapt to that near the surface at least.

Output past ten days in this set-up isn't very likely to verify well, as energy cycles are short and small changes upstream will ripple into larger changes downstream.

Would expect it to be mild and then rain and strong southwesterly winds will arrive at some point during the 25th.

pauldry

https://twitter.com/danholley_/status/1204484354606538752?s=09

Not sure this link will attach

Its actually trending cold again for Xmas though still 336 hours away but the next 120 are cold so keep it up Winter

Oneiric 3

This morning's ensembles offerings for Christmas Eve Night:

EPS:



GEFS:


No real clear signal yet for Ireland, though both models seem to be increasing the odds for a average to slightly warmer to about 60%/40%. All swings and roundabouts at this stage. Seems to be a clearer trend for Europe, with warmer than average over much of the central belt, but some signs of something cooler for the northern and eastern extremities.

Kermit.de.frog

Just seeing some changes starting to evolve now longer range in the run up to Christmas. Pressure is looking a bit higher now to the northeast and we have moved away from the balmy forecast of recent days to a colder outlook that could yet take a more interesting turn.

Keep the faith!

Gonzo

Final week of December and first week of January are starting to trend away from the very mild to somewhat cooler. A few outlying members are sending us towards proper cold a few days after Christmas. Will be interesting to see if we can lock on to a colder setup in the charts over the next week.

Rebelbrowser

ECM goes out to Christmas eve now and it tends to suggest a cold Christmas is likely. Of course at 11 days away and with the weather so mobile that could easily change.

Cork Boy 53

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

ECM goes out to Christmas eve now and it tends to suggest a cold Christmas is likely. Of course at 11 days away and with the weather so mobile that could easily change.

That doesn`t tally with what M.T. is forecasting in his daily thread.

Logan Roy

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

That doesn`t tally with what M.T. is forecasting in his daily thread.

MT this, MT that. Who cares? It's one man with an opinion in a sea of opinions.

Cork Boy 53

Logan Roy wrote: »

MT this, MT that. Who cares? It's one man with an opinion in a sea of opinions.

I dare say M.T. has far more knowledge and experience on weather topics than most of these people with opinions.

Rebelbrowser

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

That doesn`t tally with what M.T. is forecasting in his daily thread.

MT is speculating on whether 11 days away using his expertise and experience. He may well be right. Im just saying what the models say. What the models say is fact, whether they are right is a whole different ball game...

Logan Roy

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

I dare say M.T. has far more knowledge and experience on weather topics than most of these people with opinions.

Doesn't make him any more correct. Computers can't predict the weather 11 days accurately, ridiculous to think a person can.

Cork Boy 53

Logan Roy wrote: »

Doesn't make him any more correct. Computers can't predict the weather 11 days accurately, ridiculous to think a person can.

My money is on M.T`s prediction to be accurate. Anyway we don`t have too long to wait to find out.

ZX7R

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

MT is speculating on whether 11 days away using his expertise and experience. He may well be right. Im just saying what the models say. What the models say is fact, whether they are right is a whole different ball game...

Bold statement that,
Saying what the models say is fact.
Models are not facts ,they are as in there name modeling what the weather could do

Rebelbrowser

ZX7R wrote: »

Bold statement that,
Saying what the models say is fact.
Models are not facts ,they are as in there name modeling what the weather could do

Reread what I said. I said it is a statement of fact what the models actually say, whether what they say is right or completely wrong.

ZX7R

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Reread what I said. I said it is a statement of fact what the models actually say, whether what they say is right or completely wrong.

Rebellbrowser you stated in your post
"What the models say is fact"

Rebelbrowser

ZX7R wrote: »

Rebellbrowser you stated in your post
"What the models say is fact"

Not repeating myself, life is too short.

Kermit.de.frog

Logan Roy wrote: »

Doesn't make him any more correct. Computers can't predict the weather 11 days accurately, ridiculous to think a person can.

This is absolutely correct.

There are no mystic megs.

We can only go on trends presented to us by the raw data at time zero which is run through the models which in turn gives the predictions.

Nobody can forecast with any reasonable accuracy more than 7 - 10 days ahead. The very best you can do is extrapolate some vague trend and that can only be done through consistency of output across all models - a rare event in itself at that range.

In my view everyone should be sticking within the 12 day time frame (and even that is pushing it) at the very maximum.

But, look, different strokes and all that. If some want to give it a go more power to them and sometimes it will come off but it will always be very vague at that range.

I don't see the merit at all except maybe under extreme circumstance such as a sudden strat warming or something like that otherwise it a futile exercise.

Kermit.de.frog

And as if to prove the point right on cue...things looking a good deal more wintry now.



You have to be very careful with long range forecasting.

giveitholly

Met eireann said the cold conditions would continue for the early part of the coming week and then there would be a slight temporary reprieve,wonder are they seeing something along the lines Kermit is alluding to in the above chart

Rebelbrowser

As already posted, both the ECM and GFS this morning have a short but potent northerly sourced blast of cold around 24 to 26 December. And yes, that's 10 days away. Still usually we are looking at horror charts on this day every year.

".....May your days be merry and bright,
And may all your...." ðŸ˜

Rebelbrowser

6z GFS continues the trend for a cold xmas day with snow shower possibilities in the north...

Rebelbrowser

Well, 8.5 days out and at least I can say its still a possibility we might get a white one in parts. Usually by now our goose (or turkey if you prefer) is well cooked and the only question is whether the temperature will dip into single fingures at any stage on the big day. Alas it looks like it will be fairly cool (if not downright cold) one this year as things stand.

Up to date model guidance shows as follows (these are upper air temps):-

ECM:-



GFS:-



The GFS in particular, showing -5's and -6's widely over the country, is of interest. That's in the ball park of what you'd need for snow. Certainly you are looking at top temps on the day in the low single figures so seasonal anyway.

No snow currently forecast (and let's face it, that's how it is likely to stay - we get snow forecast for about 3 days a year and 2/3's of them are a bust usually!) but still time to upgrade. Alas the weather is pretty mobile (with 24 hourly variations from cold to mild) so it wouldn't take much for this cold weather to be delayed or brought forward by a day such that we end up with a milder day. Alas even the milder days forecast for the foreseeable won't make it to double figures so no repeat hopefully of recent horrible, mild, Xmas days....

Slattsy

Once its cold and dry, everyone will be satisfied.

Danno

Well, would you look at that!

Stevieluvsye

Danno wrote: »

Well, would you look at that!

I just see green

Larbre34

Stevieluvsye wrote: »

I just see green

Thats all you'll see Christmas morning and all.

Rebelbrowser

ECM trying to make a fool of my post above. Is going for a quite mild xmas now! The GFS 6z is still cold though...

pauldry

Mild is trying to push up but cold keeps pushing it back

We are in the borderline as usual.

Britain might be colder but i think the best we might get is a frosty morning but rain showers by day

Cork Boy 53

pauldry wrote: »

Mild is trying to push up but cold keeps pushing it back

We are in the borderline as usual.

Britain might be colder but i think the best we might get is a frosty morning but rain showers by day

There will be no white Christmas this year but possibly a chance of a white New Year`s Eve/New Year`s Day on high ground at least.

Kermit.de.frog

Currently looking like a bang on average or slightly below Christmas period temperature wise overall but it's fluid at the moment. Looks mostly dry (just about) today. It will be a different story later today and then tomorrow. Will have a firmer grasp on Thursday or Friday hopefully.

squarecircles

CHRISTMAS PODCAST Will we have a white Christmas? The Christmas edition of the Met Éireann Podcast has just been released and Liz & Noel are digging into all things snow! P.s. if we get 1,000 listens today a white Christmas is more likely! https://www.met.ie/education/podcast …