NIO

garrettod

I'm sticking with them.

Ultimately, my reasoning is :

* they have actual cars out on the road, and available for sale

* their sales are increasing, quarter on quarter

* their production is increasing, and they've capacity to further increase

* they have significant cash resources, to support their growth

* they've clearly got support in China, which is a massive market

* their battery swap idea offers a far better solution, then the alternative park and recharge for hours (not to mention the fact that it offers an additional income stream)

cronos

garrettod wrote: »

I'm sticking with them.

Ultimately, my reasoning is :

* they have actual cars out on the road, and available for sale - the aren't just another bunnies with a nice idea

* their sales are going up

* they have significant cash resources, to support their growth

* they've clearly got support in China, which is a massive market

* their battery swap idea offers a far better solution, then the alternative park and recharge for hours (not to mention the fact that it offers an additional income stream)

I wonder do they have patents on the battery swap idea? How easy is it to swap a battery? I wonder can other car companies copy this should they so choose.

I'm holding in Nio as it was always a speculative investment. Would expect a level of volatility within the 20 percent range either way. It's a long term play for me. I'd be more worried about the impact of the Tesla share price suddenly dropping but again I'm sure if it did it's a short term thing rather than long term.

garrettod

Hi,

I've read that they can swap a battery in under five minutes, in fact I saw an article where their management said it can be done in under three minutes, so it must be an easy enough process.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nio-strong-footing-tap-chinas-140602919.html

I don't know what protection they've got, to stop others replicating their idea for swapping batteries, but assume they've taken precautions. They've clearly got first mover advantage, but it's clearly a capital intensive project, in its own right.

That said, there's also an arguement in favour of bringing in battery swap as the standard, given the time saving benefits, and cheaper cost of getting EVs into widespread private ownership. From what I gather, renting a battery, rather than buying one, could reduce the cost of buying a car by up to €5k.

Standard Toaster

NIO have hundreds of patents filed in the US for various car tech, especially around battery swapping.

They have obtained more than 1,200 power swap related patents and have participated in the compilation of more than 20 power swap standards.

That's worth a fortune alone.

https://patents.justia.com/assignee/nio-usa-inc

Timmaay

NIO hiring in Norway, looks like they will be expanding to Europe soon.

garrettod

Timmaay wrote: »

NIO hiring in Norway, looks like they will be expanding to Europe soon.

Didn't they name Norway, as the first European country that they were expanding into, during 2021 - I'm sure they did?

Timmaay

garrettod wrote: »

Didn't they name Norway, as the first European country that they were expanding into, during 2021 - I'm sure they did?

I actually think Denmark gonna be the 1st, but probably both in 2021, both high adaptors of EVs. Dec delivery figures the next NIO event, they will need something like 6300 to hit their q4 delivery expectations, nov was a record at just over 5k delivered, and the only way they will hit the 6300 is if they have got the dual shift up and running in the factory, that will allow them to knock out 7500 or so per month, but will probably take time to iron out any issues. NIO day Jan 9th also, hard to know is that priced in already though. Actually out of interest when do most companies usually product q4 earnings results, or do they just skip straight to the full years earnings?

In any case all this is short term noise, not in my wildest dreams when I bought at like 5.90 and up along in the teens back in June did I think we'd be sitting here at almost 50 end of the year.

garrettod

The extra US$2.65bn that they raised in Q4, 2020, will help with increasing production and marketing, along with R&D, in 2021.

I thnk they go straight to Year End results, rather than announcing Q4 earnings seperately. I'm expecting results in March 2021.

Timmaay

Timmaay wrote: »

I actually think Denmark gonna be the 1st, but probably both in 2021, both high adaptors of EVs. Dec delivery figures the next NIO event, they will need something like 6300 to hit their q4 delivery expectations, nov was a record at just over 5k delivered, and the only way they will hit the 6300 is if they have got the dual shift up and running in the factory, that will allow them to knock out 7500 or so per month, but will probably take time to iron out any issues. NIO day Jan 9th also, hard to know is that priced in already though. Actually out of interest when do most companies usually product q4 earnings results, or do they just skip straight to the full years earnings?

In any case all this is short term noise, not in my wildest dreams when I bought at like 5.90 and up along in the teens back in June did I think we'd be sitting here at almost 50 end of the year.

7007 Dec deliveries woohoo.

richie123

Timmaay wrote: »

7007 Dec deliveries woohoo.

Go out now and buy more

Standard Toaster

https://finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/nio-launches-nio-certified-used-154516990.html

Also announced today, this is big.
Gonna buy more first thing.

garrettod

That's good, alright.

"Nio said deliveries more than doubled from a year ago to 43,728 vehicles" (for y/e 2020, I assume).

That's a decent result, given where NIO have come from. However, to keep things in perspective, it's only about 8-9% of Tesla's sales, for 2020.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/04/chinese-electric-car-start-up-nio-doubles-deliveries-as-tesla-competition-rises.html

With notable growth in production during recent months, a new sedan being launched etc. They should be able to put 60,000 plus cars out on the road this year. Perhaps more.

NIO Day, 9th January, should help the price over the next few days.

DutchYurt

Reckon it's a good time to get in or should their be more turbulence over the coming weeks? today was a rough day.

bcklschaps

Want to get in to NIO also but don't like buying shares that are rising this quickly. Feel there must be a plateau at some stage. Hopefully tommorow?

Timmaay

DutchYurt wrote: »

Reckon it's a good time to get in or should their be more turbulence over the coming weeks? today was a rough day.

Being blunt again with you Dutch haha, no you've probably missed the boat, where were you the last few weeks when it was in the low 40s, well beat down from its peak of 57, but nicely holding support?, That was the time to be dollar averaging into it, waiting for it to build. Personally I'd say you probably need to pick afew companies that you really really like, do plenty of homework on them, and be ready to buy any dips that they clearly seem too beat down, rather than trying to jump in on the likes of NIO on a +10% day, that's what I'd call fomo. Having said that hopefully NIO will still push on across the next week leading up to NIO day on Jan 9th, but there is a strong possibility that NIO day is already priced in, and it will sell off immediately after (or maybe more likely immediately before lol) NIO day.

Standard Toaster

bcklschaps wrote: »

Want to get in to NIO also but don't like buying shares that are rising this quickly. Feel there must be a plateau at some stage. Hopefully tommorow?

The big money is still buying.
I seen $19,344,366 buyer of 358,229 @$54.00 and a
$6,000,000+ buyer @$53.40 yesterday.


I'm in since the low $13s

garrettod

Standard Toaster wrote: »

Those average 12 month price forecasts are interesting, to say the least...

Here's hoping they are right!

DutchYurt

Timmaay wrote: »

Being blunt again with you Dutch haha, no you've probably missed the boat, where were you the last few weeks when it was in the low 40s, well beat down from its peak of 57, but nicely holding support?, That was the time to be dollar averaging into it, waiting for it to build. Personally I'd say you probably need to pick afew companies that you really really like, do plenty of homework on them, and be ready to buy any dips that they clearly seem too beat down, rather than trying to jump in on the likes of NIO on a +10% day, that's what I'd call fomo. Having said that hopefully NIO will still push on across the next week leading up to NIO day on Jan 9th, but there is a strong possibility that NIO day is already priced in, and it will sell off immediately after (or maybe more likely immediately before lol) NIO day.

Thanks man, still kicking myself for selling in the single digits - didn't get to pay as much attention over xmas. Bluntness is the only way Fastly had me concerned with its rise and meteoric fall so I missed the boat. Not to worry! Thanks for the input!

Atlas_IRL

DutchYurt wrote: »

Thanks man, still kicking myself for selling in the single digits - didn't get to pay as much attention over xmas. Bluntness is the only way Fastly had me concerned with its rise and meteoric fall so I missed the boat. Not to worry! Thanks for the input!

I bought it originally at 3.30 but didn't do enough research on it and sold at 6.60, bought back in at 27 and 46. My favourite stock at the moment because I have done the research now, lesson learned.

masterboy123

It's down by almost 5%
I feel there is some risk? I have couple of shares with Nio.

Timmaay

Trump won't get out lol. Definitely hold tight and do not panic sell due to an overreaction like this.

cronos

masterboy123 wrote: »

It's down by almost 5%
I feel there is some risk? I have couple of shares with Nio.

I think the risk is you don't have enough shares.

masterboy123

Ok

cronos wrote: »

I think the risk is you don't have enough shares.

Standard Toaster

masterboy123 wrote: »

It's down by almost 5%
I feel there is some risk? I have couple of shares with Nio.

Atlas_IRL

Nio is going to be worth far more than $50 dollars in a few years, read up on what they are doing, the ties with the Chinese government, in the biggest EV market in the world, Incentives that other companies don't have. You can buy the car without the battery and save a crazy amount and also be under the incentive limit that the others like tesla and xpeng cannot do, they then make 150 a month on doing the battery swap service which 30-40% of customers sign up to and the Chinese government are helping them roll these out. They are likely to showcase their new 150wt battery on Nio day and all there batteries can be used in the swap stations. You could use a small one then switch to a bigger one if you wanted to drive longer.

Standard Toaster

NIO Day live stream, on now

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lzB-3q_e5Cw

crushproof

Standard Toaster wrote: »

NIO Day live stream, on now

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lzB-3q_e5Cw

Is this for the new iPhone or a car? Very slick

Standard Toaster

Incredible specs on the ET7 car.
€57.000 and €64.000

Bits I remember....

0-100 km : 3.9s
650bhp
Nvidia Adam super computer equal to 7 Tesla FSD computers, 8096 CUDA cores.
Aquila sensing including - 32 sensors
Upgraded Swap Station - Self parking
NIO Autonomous Driving full stack
8Gb of driving data a second processed.
New 150kWh solid state battery with 1000+km range
0.23 Cd
HDR HUD displays.
Lider and x11 cameras
7.1 surround sound
Brembo brakes
Full air suspension (active, 500 times a second reacts to road)
Full glass roof with 97% UV protection.
5G, WiFi 6
Lifetime warranty

Pre-order now, first deliveries in Q1 '22


https://twitter.com/InvestorNio/status/1347885805747007488?s=20

https://twitter.com/InvestorNio/status/1347885627082211329?s=20

Share price will blow up on Monday imho

Standard Toaster

OEP

Do you reckon today's announcements are already priced in?

richie123

Did they launch any affordable models ..to rival Tesla model 3 ?
Surely if doing battery swap a huge chunk of the cost is saved leaving them more affordable.

Standard Toaster

More of a premium brand vs Tesla. (in China at least)

Quote from elsewhere....

There were "4.4 million Chinese are watching the stream on weibo. Many are commenting they want to buy the car and just want to know the price .. Hoping it's more affordable .they are very excited"

OEP wrote: »

Do you reckon today's announcements are already priced in?

Personally, I don't believe so.

HelloYoungBoy

Hugely impressive. Good summary here

https://twitter.com/wolfofharcourt/status/1347948158203125761?s=21

Atlas_IRL

So, i was still very bullish when i watched Nio Day this morning but just watched a youtuber i follow whos a big tesla/nio bull and his fundamental analysis is always very good. Have a look as it paints a different light.

Maybe some of this will be cleared up by Nio soon and some was lost in translation but well worth a watch. I haven't seen anyone else question what he brings up.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yyU9lSXcbVs

ted1

I think they are jumping the gun with solid state batteries. I don’t think the tech availability matches their time line

Also wouldn’t solid state batteries render battery swapping stations unnecessary. As the charge time is minimal

cronos

ted1 wrote: »

I think they are jumping the gun with solid state batteries. I don’t think the tech availability matches their time line

Also wouldn’t solid state batteries render battery swapping stations unnecessary. As the charge time is minimal

The swapping will cover more than just reducing charge times. Gives flexibility to have different battery distances. If you are only a commuter you need one battery type, if you want to then travel long distance you want another etc...

cronos

Atlas_IRL wrote: »

So, i was still very bullish when i watched Nio Day this morning but just watched a youtuber i follow whos a big tesla/nio bull and his fundamental analysis is always very good. Have a look as it paints a different light.

Maybe some of this will be cleared up by Nio soon and some was lost in translation but well worth a watch. I haven't seen anyone else question what he brings up.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yyU9lSXcbVs

Hmm interesting watch. Makes me think Nio should buy CATL and cut off the competition. Probably not an actual option but would be an interesting maneuver.

Actually looking at market cap it would be the other way around haha

ted1

cronos wrote: »

The swapping will cover more than just reducing charge times. Gives flexibility to have different battery distances. If you are only a commuter you need one battery type, if you want to then travel long distance you want another etc...

I can’t see the demand for that justifying the battery Swapping. It adds needless costs and complexities, so much that I’d be reluctant to invest. ( I don’t think they’ll lose sleep overthat)

A solid state should charge the n less than 10 minutes. So there’s really not much time savings

cronos

ted1 wrote: »

I can’t see the demand for that justifying the battery Swapping. It adds needless costs and complexities, so much that I’d be reluctant to invest. ( I don’t think they’ll lose sleep overthat)

Well that and the option to upgrade the car as new tech becomes available or as old batteries die. But yes how much demand is open to question, but are they don't have loads of these stations versus the population anyway. It's not like they were going to have the same frequency as petrol stations do currently. Would be more of an issue if they had built all the stations already.

garrettod

150kw battery pack tops Tesla, I believe.

... That's a big selling point, for the months ahead..

cronos

garrettod wrote: »

150kw battery pack tops Tesla, I believe.

... That's a big selling point, for the months ahead..

The video mentioned earlier suggests Nio don't themselves make batteries. I'm confused if in fact they will be making batteries themselves now or if they are getting it from a third party (mentioned in the video).

Timmaay

NIO's still have a normal plug charger also, so you can buy the battery and work away as normal, which would work well in countries or locations that don't have NIO battery swap locations. My question would be how much extra does it cost to have a removable battery in the car, against say a Tesla where its fully integrated and actually a stressed member of the chassis? And how much extra will the battery as a service revenues generate above this cost, we are hopefully talking about like 10x the cost of a more complex battery setup ha.

ted1

Timmaay wrote: »

NIO's still have a normal plug charger also, so you can buy the battery and work away as normal, which would work well in countries or locations that don't have NIO battery swap locations. My question would be how much extra does it cost to have a removable battery in the car, against say a Tesla where its fully integrated and actually a stressed member of the chassis? And how much extra will the battery as a service revenues generate above this cost, we are hopefully talking about like 10x the cost of a more complex battery setup ha.

Tesla had a battery swap and ditched it
https://www.tesla.com/en_IE/videos/battery-swap-event


https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.businessinsider.com/teslas-battery-swapping-plan-isnt-working-out-2015-6%3famp

The cars can still do it. However moving foreword their design of integrating the larger batteries wouldn’t allow them.

SpacialNeeds

What platform is good to buy this on?

I joined Plus500 and I'm just waiting for my account to be verified but eToro did all that and then wouldn't let me buy as I'm in Ireland

Atlas_IRL

CATL do the batteries for Nio and loads of Companies, they do some of Teslas as well, not sure if all of teslas. So what he was pointing out was that everyone can get the 150kw tech unless Nio have some sort of deal with CATL that only they will get it. I'm sure we'll know at some stage.

crushproof

Good insight here from CNBC into the background of the company and the current plans. They've made some very smart moves in regards to shifting money about and making smart deals with manufacturers in China. It's painful to see how low the share price was at the tail end of 2019!

Timmaay

SpacialNeeds wrote: »

What platform is good to buy this on?

I joined Plus500 and I'm just waiting for my account to be verified but eToro did all that and then wouldn't let me buy as I'm in Ireland

Degiro, trading 212 (make sure the invest, not CFDs), or Revolut all good

Bawa

crushproof wrote: »

Good insight here from CNBC into the background of the company and the current plans. They've made some very smart moves in regards to shifting money about and making smart deals with manufacturers in China. It's painful to see how low the share price was at the tail end of 2019!

The company may be fine but the stock is ridiculous. Look at the P/Sales ratio. It's insane!

OEP

Bawa wrote: »

The company may be fine but the stock is ridiculous. Look at the P/Sales ratio. It's insane!

People have been screaming that for years about Tesla too. I'm not saying this won't all pop but it could equally still keep going up for a long time yet

Timmaay

There she goes, 64$ premarket. Bank of America upgrade to 70$ also.