Spanish general election, November 2019

An Ciarraioch

Tomorrow sees the second Spanish general election of this year, following on from April, where the combined left won 165 out of the 350 seats, but the Socialists (123) declined the offer of a coalition from Podemos (42). Ciudadanos (57 seats) almost drew level with the Popular Party (66) on the right of the political spectrum, but have since seen their support levels collapse after refusing to enter government with either the PP or the Socialists. Meanwhile, the far-right Vox, which entered the parliament for the first time in April, with 24 seats, has seen its support surge in response to the exhumation of Franco and ongoing stalemate in Catalonia, and could win 50-60 seats. In summary, deadlock is expected to continue, with Basque, Catalan and Galician parties holding the balance of power. Here is the seat projection from the final poll of the campaign:

L1011

PSOE already includes the Galician Socialists so there could be some tiny basis for buying support from the Galician Everyone Else that way, not that it gets anywhere close.

Sanchez should have tried to jump at the (potentially rogue, of course) poll shortly after the election that suggested he could get 140 seats!

An Ciarraioch

A flurry of exit polls released since 7, but they all agree that neither the left nor the right will reach the magic number of 176. This was the first released:

L1011

Why does it use a different colour on each ring for (I'm going to let my phone fail to spell this) cuididanos?

Vox growth has to be a reaction to the anti Francoist measures and very little else

Itssoeasy

The Spanish election result got me thinking given the last election results in the Republic of Ireland, the United Kingdom, Canada, Israel, and now Spain again.
Why are the days of decisive election outcomes over ? The electorates in several counties seem to have given a less than clear picture as to how they want their country run.

Nody

Itssoeasy wrote: »

The Spanish election result got me thinking given the last election results in the Republic of Ireland, the United Kingdom, Canada, Israel, and now Spain again.
Why are the days of decisive election outcomes over ? The electorates in several counties seem to have given a less than clear picture as to how they want their country run.

It's a general trend worldwide I'd say and my best guess is a combination of changed electorate (the principle of the wide multi issue party to cover a wide group and needs big mandate to rule is not seen as needed by the younger voters) as well as a rise of more specialized single issue style parties who don't aim to get 30 to 50% of the vote (think Green parties, Anti immigration parties, The Pirate Party etc.) with the goal to influence the overall politic rather than being the main ruling party which can campaign very clearly on said topic drawing in voters (though they in general tend to have long term sustainment issues beyond a very small percentage core voting base).

An ironic side effect of this is because of the fractional party nature and more parties coming into power (albeit at smaller number of total seats per party) it also destabilize the ability to get those issues through. Yes; Green party might get a 4 year run of their issues this year but next election another party coalition comes in slashing those new legislation down again causing uncertainty in general. This will also trigger a lot more elections in general as multiparty coalitions tend to fail a lot more often as the more parties the higher chance someone somewhere gets offended/caught/barred taking the coalition down (see for example Austria's last government which was only a two party setup). This is in turn increased further as the smaller parties tend to have more inexperienced people who are then going to repeat mistakes larger parties already done and got guidelines around to avoid.

Barna77

PP and Vox zero seats in the Basque Country. I'm truly shocked. What a triumph to the independence cause.

An Ciarraioch

Barna77 wrote: »

PP and Vox zero seats in the Basque Country. I'm truly shocked. What a triumph to the independence cause.

No Vox seat in Galicia either, even if only one nationalist was elected in the region after an eight year absence. Signs of change also in Navarre, which traditionally hasn't been happy electoral territory for the Basque parties, but a Bildu MP was elected there last night.

Both the Socialists and Podemos have declared their openness to a coalition today, and given both have significant support in Catalonia, that may ultimately lead to constitutional talks should a government be formed.

Barna77

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

No Vox seat in Galicia either, even if only one nationalist was elected in the region after an eight year absence.

There's only one party in Galicia, and that's PP.
People in Galicia will vote them even if their candidate was a potato.

bertie 56

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

No Vox seat in Galicia either, even if only one nationalist was elected in the region after an eight year absence.

Yes, but BNG has nothing to do with Vox ... They are lefties, close to ERC or Bildu ( with whom they had a common list in the last European elections )

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Signs of change also in Navarre, which traditionally hasn't been happy electoral territory for the Basque parties, but a Bildu MP was elected there last night.

Yes, Bel Pozueta her name, she is the mum of one of the 8 Altsasu Basque political prisoners .



Euskal Herria , Catalonia , Navarra and Galicia are the 4 only places where Vox was under 10%.
Ceuta, Murcia, C.La Mancha and Andalucia are the 4 ones above 20% .
( funny to see that these results coincide with the percentage of people with superior studies . The less people study , the more votes for Vox :rolleyes: )


Position of Vox in these elections :

dark green : first position

Clear green : second positiom
dark blue : third position
clear blue : fourth position
white : insignificant

bertie 56

Barna77 wrote: »

There's only one party in Galicia, and that's PP.

You should have say " right wing " party .


Still, this time like last April, the left got an absolute majority in Galicia.

Barna77 wrote: »

People in Galicia will vote them even if their candidate was a potato.

" even " , or better " above all " ...
And sadly enough, not only in Galicia ... :rolleyes:

Liberta Per Gli Ultra

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Why are the days of decisive election outcomes over?

If that's in reference to the 90s/00s in certain countries then economics would be one of the obvious answers and the popularity of the internet would be a factor.

Itssoeasy wrote: »

The electorates in several counties seem to have given a less than clear picture as to how they want their country run.

That'll happen, given that those electorates are made up of different groups with different views and competing interests. The working classes would have the numbers to give a "clear picture" but right-wing parties do a good job promoting fear and nationalism which wins them working class votes.

is_that_so

Itssoeasy wrote: »

The Spanish election result got me thinking given the last election results in the Republic of Ireland, the United Kingdom, Canada, Israel, and now Spain again.
Why are the days of decisive election outcomes over ? The electorates in several counties seem to have given a less than clear picture as to how they want their country run.

The Spanish case is just another version of what happened in Greece and Italy where the electorate got completely fed up with traditional parties. The problem for such parties so that they really only get one chance and then voters go back to a semblance or normal voting patterns.

Barna77

In Spain there's no tradition of coalition between political parties, except maybe at local scale.


They just throw insults at each other. So they can't strike a deal.

is_that_so

Barna77 wrote: »

In Spain there's no tradition of coalition between political parties, except maybe at local scale.


They just throw insults at each other. So they can't strike a deal.

There have been pacts and alliances in the past but not really at government level. One or other of the larger blocks, probably PSOE, will be forced into a confidence and supply deal. Otherwise God knows what the dwindling number of Spanish voters will go for if there is another enforced election.

EDIT: Amusing that Podemos and PSOE now suddenly have the makings of a deal!

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/11/12/inenglish/1573562718_041862.html

bertie 56

Another quick analysis of these elections can be done with the gains/losses of seats :
( made by Jordi Puignero - Minister of Digital Policy and Public Administration in Catalonia )



PP : +22 seats

VOX : +28

PSOE: -3

Cs : - 47

______________



Total 0 seats gained .



Independentists / sovereigntists from Catalonia , Galizia / Euskal Herria :



+ 4 seats gained.


****************************************


About the rising of VOX , and the fall of C's :



As I said here for the last two years , C's has never been the " centre right liberal " party as most the Spanish and European media were trying to sell .

This party was far more on the right side of what could be a Spanish " Republique en marche" of Macron " ( as it has been called sometimes ) and had made most of his rising at spitting on the Catalans, as did Vox later on.


No surprise then if their votes has been transferred to VOX last Sunday.


As said in 1991 Jean Marie LE PEN , ex-leader of the " Front National " in France :
" People will always prefer the original than the copy " :rolleyes:
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Barna77

bertie 56 wrote: »

Galicia

Fixed for you

bertie 56

Barna77 wrote: »

Fixed for you

Galiza, then ( if you don't mind...) :-)


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bertie 56

UPDATE :

PNV lost a seat and has now 6 seats in the Congress .
PP won this seat and has now 89 seats.