General Election December, 2019 (U.K.)

quokula

CrabRevolution wrote: »

While it's true that the British media just perpetually lambast him and really milk the "anti semitism" accusations, why do people immediately assume that Corbyn would be doing much better if the media left him alone?

It's not like his policies or track record are objectively great and hence it must be the media's fault he's doing poorly. Perhaps his ideas just don't resonate or inspire voters.

Because their policies poll well when you don’t tell people that they’re Labour’s.

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/05/19/nationalisation-vs-privatisation-public-view

And it would be pretty strange to think a constant stream of heavily targeted false character assassination would have no impact on his popularity whatsoever.

Here’s what Lewis Goodall has come to believe from going out and speaking to voters:

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1202984294752432128?s=20

The constant stream of propaganda has worked and worn people who haven’t educated themselves down to the point that they hate Corbyn without knowing why. Many of the same tactics were used in the US against Hilary Clinton and worked in exactly the same way, even though she could hardly be more different to Corbyn as a politician.

And you say his track record isn’t great, but he’s been consistently on the right side of history in the past when you look at his voting record.

Joe_ Public

It would certainly be nice if the media there, including the bbc, gave him a fair crack of the whip so we could truly find out how much those policies did cut through. But they won't so we'll likely never really know. Only a couple of days ago british security agents were collaborating with the uks biggest selling newspaper to portray labour members as dangerous radical nutjobs. I am certain that analysts will be looking back in a few years wondering how so much of this was allowed to happen.

gooch2k9

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Interesting thing about this election is that tories are behind labour and lib dems when it comes to online advertising spending. At least it was when i last read about it. Labour were racking up £40k per day on Facebook and the like and winning the viral war. I dont know does that mean the tories dont believe its worth spending big sums on but they will be launching a huge online assault over last few days so maybe just a case of keeping their powder dry.

I read somewhere the Cons are saving 30% of their budget for the last three days(assume today, tomorrow and Wednesday) so we can expect an onslaught of Facebook advertising.

Wanderer78

gooch2k9 wrote:

I read somewhere the Cons are saving 30% of their budget for the last three days(assume today, tomorrow and Wednesday) so we can expect an onslaught of Facebook advertising.

Thank God I'm not on it, life's too short to be listening to their crap

gooch2k9

Wanderer78 wrote: »

Thank God I'm not on it, life's too short to be listening to their crap

I don't spend much time on it anymore but have seen a few DUP ads pop up about how they have delivered this and that for the area, completely ignoring the fact that the nurses are on strike because they're being treated differently to the rest of the UK.

Berserker5

I wouldn't assume anything yet either

I think relentlessly pushing the get brexit done message may not be working, deep down do they really want it

The tide could turn pre election and we could see a coalition

LeinsterDub

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1203940035210428417?s=19

Yeah because these are basically the same thing Laura!

gooch2k9

Johnson et al are saying there won't be checks between NI and GB. DUP saying HMRC told them there would be. Surely something like that should be easy to clarify and if he is lying report it as such, not just "Boris claims...".

McGiver

Deleted User wrote: »

Just out of interest, i looked up earlier that there is 260,000 Jews in the UK and 3.3 million Muslims in the UK.

Anyone here have any idea why the noise level on Labour's anti-Semitism, which they apologized for, and are now (finally) investigating is so much louder than the Tory's relentless Islamophobia? Which has never been apologised, or investigated?

Important question - how many of those are British citizens of white complexion? That may reply your question :cool:

hometruths

McGiver wrote: »

That's wrong. I have personal experience of older people who trust basically everything showing up on the Internet or sent to them via spam email. They've don't have to use Internet frequently at all to further harden and confirm their opinions, which is how Putin style CA electronic propaganda & manipulation work - keep people stuck in their confirmation bias bubbles and amplify it, basically show them what they want to see.

Surely online echo chambers and confirmation bias bubbles are influencing everybody, young or old, male or female, well educated or not, remain or leave etc?

i,e if your feed on facebook is full of your friends likeminded opinions and sharing articles etc you are equally likely to have your opinions hardened and confirmed whether or not that starting opinion is "Brexit - Take Back Control" or "Remain - Stronger Together"?

Mr.Wemmick

Berserker5 wrote: »

I wouldn't assume anything yet either

I think relentlessly pushing the get brexit done message may not be working, deep down do they really want it

The tide could turn pre election and we could see a coalition

This is my feeling too. There is a lot of talk here in the UK regarding sources of error in the poll stats so far.. and a lot could happen this week.

Crossing fingers for Corbyn, hope he does better than expected.

Wanderer78

Mr.Wemmick wrote: »

This is my feeling too. There is a lot of talk here in the UK regarding sources of error in the poll stats so far.. and a lot could happen this week.

Crossing fingers for Corbyn, hope he does better than expected.

dont think corbyn has a hope

McGiver

schmittel wrote: »

Surely online echo chambers and confirmation bias bubbles are influencing everybody, young or old, male or female, well educated or not, remain or leave etc?

i,e if your feed on facebook is full of your friends likeminded opinions and sharing articles etc you are equally likely to have your opinions hardened and confirmed whether or not that starting opinion is "Brexit - Take Back Control" or "Remain - Stronger Together"?

Educated people tend to verify their information sources and don't believe every piece of information on the Internet. It's as simple as that. Everyone is prone to echo-chambering but less educated people much more so. This is the key point which is being abused.

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

Just out of interest, i looked up earlier that there is 260,000 Jews in the UK and 3.3 million Muslims in the UK.

Anyone here have any idea why the noise level on Labour's anti-Semitism, which they apologized for, and are now (finally) investigating is so much louder than the Tory's relentless Islamophobia? Which has never been apologised, or investigated?

it has been acknowledged and apologised for. https://www.bbc.com/news/election-2019-50576508

According to Johnson and Cleverly a full investigation will start by the end of the year https://www.bbc.com/news/election-2019-50707997

Joe_ Public

schmittel wrote: »

Surely online echo chambers and confirmation bias bubbles are influencing everybody, young or old, male or female, well educated or not, remain or leave etc?

i,e if your feed on facebook is full of your friends likeminded opinions and sharing articles etc you are equally likely to have your opinions hardened and confirmed whether or not that starting opinion is "Brexit - Take Back Control" or "Remain - Stronger Together"?

From what I've read of it, the dom Cummings style of facebook campaigning is a lot more sophisticated than merely bombarding known supporters with random messages and creating an ever cacophonous echo chamber. They basically create a data bank of voters they need to target, groups traditionally hard to reach and probably undecided about their vote and then work them up like kippers. At least thats what they did for vote leave on the referendum.

LeinsterDub

Aegir wrote: »

it has been acknowledged and apologised for. https://www.bbc.com/news/election-2019-50576508

According to Johnson and Cleverly a full investigation will start by the end of the year https://www.bbc.com/news/election-2019-50707997

Boris has refused to apologise for his own islamophobia, homophobia and racism . https://twitter.com/MatesJacob shows how serious the Tories are actually taking islamophobia

FrancieBrady

If this doesn't send shivers down spines in the UK in the week of an election then I think the next decade is going to be a tough one for any moderate UKer.
It must be incredibly scary and upsetting for so many to hear this. It is the kind of thing you might expect to be 'uncovered' or said in private not brazenly spouted in the week of a poll.

https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1203922486968147969

hometruths

McGiver wrote: »

Educated people tend to verify their information sources and don't believe every piece of information on the Internet. It's as simple as that. Everyone is prone to echo-chambering but less educated people much more so. This is the key point which is being abused.

Thick people wrecking it for everybody else. It's as simple as that.

That must be a fairly depressing point of view to hold, especially with such conviction.

droidus

There's been some interesting analysis of poll weighting suggesting the actual Tory lead is as low as 3%. Also the curious fact that they are concentrating resources in their own seats rather than the marginals, which implies they are less confident than most would assume.

hometruths

Joe_ Public wrote: »

From what I've read of it, the dom Cummings style of facebook campaigning is a lot more sophisticated than merely bombarding known supporters with random messages and creating an ever cacophonous echo chamber. They basically create a data bank of voters they need to target, groups traditionally hard to reach and probably undecided about their vote and then work them up like kippers. At least thats what they did for vote leave on the referendum.

Yes, for sure there is no doubt Cummings is ahead of the game on this, I am not disputing any of that. And using some pretty grey area tactics legally in terms of personal data etc.

What I object to is the idea that Putin et al are swinging election results by targetting thick people online.

To my mind this excuse is masking a much needed critical analysis of what the weaknesses of those losing campaigns, a necessary analysis in order to ensure they do a better job of appealing to the electorate next time.

Some of the comments on here would have you believe that as long as Putin et al have their IT departments and big budgets there is little point in even holding elections. Sure why bother if the Russians can simply throw money at Cambridge Analytica to get whatever outcome they want?

I am also confused as to why when Obama harnessed the power of the internet for both fundraising and advertising with extremely targetted messages in 08 and 12 he was a pioneer rather than a manipulator.

schmittel

schmittel wrote: »

Yes, for sure there is no doubt Cummings is ahead of the game on this, I am not disputing any of that. And using some pretty grey area tactics legally in terms of personal data etc.

What I object to is the idea that Putin et al are swinging election results by targetting thick people online.

To my mind this excuse is masking a much needed critical analysis of what the weaknesses of those losing campaigns, a necessary analysis in order to ensure they do a better job of appealing to the electorate next time.

Some of the comments on here would have you believe that as long as Putin et al have their IT departments and big budgets there is little point in even holding elections. Sure why bother if the Russians can simply throw money at Cambridge Analytica to get whatever outcome they want?

I am also confused as to why when Obama harnessed the power of the internet for both fundraising and advertising with extremely targetted messages in 08 and 12 he was a pioneer rather than a manipulator.

it is generally accepted that Labour are leading the social media campaign, so it stands to reason that if they are losing, then the first thing social media needs to do is rubbish the oppositions social media.

The message seems to be listen to us, not them, because they're all Russian bots.

Zubeneschamali

schmittel wrote: »

Thick people wrecking it for everybody else. It's as simple as that.

No, no - as well as the thick people, there are lots of racists, xenophobes and far right wingers.

Sir Oxman

FrancieBrady wrote: »

If this doesn't send shivers down spines in the UK in the week of an election then I think the next decade is going to be a tough one for any moderate UKer.
It must be incredibly scary and upsetting for so many to hear this. It is the kind of thing you might expect to be 'uncovered' or said in private not brazenly spouted in the week of a poll.

https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1203922486968147969

That's his theme from today as he personally visits the 'Red Wall' Labour leave voting constituencies.
They'll lap it up even though I've no doubt Johnson himself thinks it's sh1te.


Fools be fools.

ArmaniJeanss

droidus wrote: »

Also the curious fact that they are concentrating resources in their own seats rather than the marginals, which implies they are less confident than most would assume.

Same pretty much applies to Labour, if you follow the twitters of activists then it's noticeable that a lot of their activity is in <5K majority Labour seats.
I saw one who casually put it as "I'm out campaigning in Leigh, and the fact I'm in Leigh says it all".

Zubeneschamali

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Same pretty much applies to Labour

Yes, but you'd expect Labour to be on defence if they are way behind in the polls.

Why are the Tories on defence if they are way up?

ArmaniJeanss

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Yes, but you'd expect Labour to be on defence if they are way behind in the polls.

Why are the Tories on defence if they are way up?

Fair point well made.

I haven't really been following the Tory side too much.
I wonder are they just defending high-profiles like Raaab and IDS, or generally defending marginals.

Joe_ Public

schmittel wrote: »

Yes, for sure there is no doubt Cummings is ahead of the game on this, I am not disputing any of that. And using some pretty grey area tactics legally in terms of personal data etc.

What I object to is the idea that Putin et al are swinging election results by targetting thick people online.

To my mind this excuse is masking a much needed critical analysis of what the weaknesses of those losing campaigns, a necessary analysis in order to ensure they do a better job of appealing to the electorate next time.

Some of the comments on here would have you believe that as long as Putin et al have their IT departments and big budgets there is little point in even holding elections. Sure why bother if the Russians can simply throw money at Cambridge Analytica to get whatever outcome they want?

I am also confused as to why when Obama harnessed the power of the internet for both fundraising and advertising with extremely targetted messages in 08 and 12 he was a pioneer rather than a manipulator.

Yeah, i get you. I've always thought putin seems to be getting maximum buck for what is often low level trolling. Of course they need to be wary of the old goat, but putin can be a handy means of deflection when you can be sure there's likely plenty of electoral dark arts going on quite without the Russians assistance.

Data harvesting is where it's at. I'm inclined to think that if the tories are only now cranking their social media machine into fourth gear, its because they have spent weeks, months targeting the precise groups they want and refining the message they need to send to them. Labour do really well with their imaginative, expensively made ads that go viral, but how effective are they outside their traditional voting base? Questionable I'd say.

Joe_ Public

Peter, an 80 year old undecided voter, is making a name for himself on Victoria Derbyshire show right now. Hates all politicians but is giving it large to Nigel Evans who keeps trying to talk over him as Peter tells him he's a liar. SNP politician got eaten alive earlier, left a gibbering wreck. Angela Rayner managed at least to get some muted applause which means she's probably winning.

This isn't politics I'm watching, its blood sport.

Latest polls are looking good for Boris Johnson and the Conservative Party.

SURVATION (5-7 Dec)

CON: 45% (+3)
LAB: 31% (-2)
LDEM: 11 (-)
BREX: 4% (+1)
GRN: 2% (-2)

---

Britain Elects has also put up their tracker of Tory and Labour performance over the past week; makes for excellent reading for any Conservative and Brexit supporter.

With less than 72 hours remaining in the campaign, I really cannot see a way out for the Labour Party now.

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1203940845050707968

Joe_ Public

Biggest car crash interview going on right now with Paul Scully on bbc politics. Shown the widely discussed picture of the child sleeping on a hospital floor in Yorkshire, he actually tries to blame it on labour. Later on, while he is being eviscerated on tory health investment plans, he actually tries to steer the discussion back to the sick child.

He's now getting torn apart on the tory manifesto pledge to change human rights act. Even the right wing guy on the panel is labelling it "sinister". Its bonkers.

https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1204017021005885441?s=20